working well how's it going by you
so now I know how I can do it on friday
yeah nice and easy and smooth hopefully
yeah and it doesn't work on ipads
Yeah, unfortunately does not work on ipads. Are you on a cell phone now? I am now yep
Perfect. I while you're here you want to give a minute or two thoughts on the market. Are you busy?
The thoughts are it's in an uptrend and get out of the way, you know
It just keeps barreling up there. The hedge is nowhere near going on
We've got a lot of futures making good moves
Cryptos are now to the downside lately, which is interesting. I suppose after a quite a long run up and
Do you have any favorite names within those sectors I
Trade the ETFs. I don't trade individual stocks because I find it too much effort and I'm retired and I like to stay that way
Yeah, no, that's totally fair any favorite ETFs at the moment
The energy ones I'd stay away from but almost everything else is in a solid
I think energy and utilities are the kind of the five that have faded out, but everything else is on a roll
You can just just about throw a dart and
Be in the right be in the you know, a good sector. So the technology obviously is doing well like okay
you could use to get a smattering of a
Variety of different tech stocks all in one little package
So that's a good one lately
Yeah, that certainly is and with your approach these are you?
Scalping them swinging them. What's the job just oh, I'm I do a 21 day
triple indicator trend following
Then go to cash when it goes to the downside. I use a 50 day
triple indicator package to
To get out and go to cash and that's all explained that enjoy the ride that world
hedge page I use the same indicators that the hedge uses to
Put on each of the sectors and take them off. So
Sounds good. Well Tom. Thanks so much for taking the time to test. I'm looking forward our space is Friday. All right. I'll see you then
All right. I'll see you then Nate. Good morning. I know you sent me over a whole list of stuff. You're looking at what's going on over there
Good morning, everybody. Good morning wolf. Yeah, I think we're gonna have another fun week ahead of us here. Definitely. I'm
Quite the week last week and yeah watching a number of things it just a comment on what Tom would say in there
Really quickly. I lying with some of those comments for sure energy looks a little bit weak and and it hasn't found a bottom necessarily
Those that are looking at ETFs in the space though
AMLP is one that I still continue like it's an MLP
ETF and so it's focused on the pipelines and a few different names. It might not be
Quite as familiar in the energy space, but yeah more focused on transportation storage and and processing
versus like, you know the drillers and refiners and all that so
Yeah, just a MLP is one then that space by agree energy looks pretty weak and then
Mention of Bitcoin and where we're at there, you know, I I trade marathon digital ticker
ma RA and I was noting this morning actually that it is now below
I mean yet, you know last week it dropped below its anchored view op from the highs back in May
I think it was me just double check that yeah from the highs back in or sorry July of 23
When it peaked and then sold off we've you know ripped much higher since then obviously but sold way off below it and now
marathons below its anchored view op so
Needs to get back above 1650 for me to have some confidence in the ticker
So kind of staying away right now just watching patiently from the sideline on that one
But yeah, then with respect to everything else. I mean you're right. I got a lot of things. I'm super interested in this week
Given that spy is just you know set to run now we can use
47650 a support there. We'll see if we can hold up that level and
Continue to move higher the cues need to hold
413 if they get any pullbacks here and we're looking a little extended so you might not you know, we have a nice run
So we might not be a bad thing to see a little bit of a pullback
But the way we're starting today, we might not get it
So that would be nice to continue this nice little rip here
Small caps were the one thing I know to last week that I thought could have done a little bit better
So really interested to see if IWM in particular you can get back above
198 and hold that try to get back to 200 effectively, but within small caps
I mean, there's just a lot of other names to be picking and trading. So
Interesting spot there but in general like to see IWM near that 200 level and then you know me man
I love semiconductors. So I've been in the best mood lately like semiconductors is on fire continuing to rip
So love to see that if we do get a pullback again, because it's been a nice run
SMH is the ETF. I like to track this it holistically for the sector and
174 is the number that we need for support
But really just a great run and so continue to look in that space TSM. I'm targeting
120 so definitely long TSM here
Marvell has been on absolute rip since bouncing off of its anchor VWAP
So some of these names now getting a little extended tougher to trade but if you're in them
I mean, it's just been nothing but upside
I'm also looking at airlines both Delta and American Airlines bouncing off anchor VWAP for recent lows
So I think that's interesting to note
especially after the holiday season and
You know this time of year, I don't think I'm an expert in the airlines
But I don't think this is the kind of the time of year that you see big moves there
It looks like the setups are
Are there right bouncing off of these anchor VWAPs and from recent lows, so?
Paying attention closely both Delta and American in that space
and then Palantir another one bouncing off of anchor VWAP support right near 1570 and
The next name I talked about on the live stream actually yesterday wolf
BX so blackstone just a huge move
And then pulled back and now we have this massive volume shelf that's providing support at 115
So BX at 115 here moving higher
super interesting I think it could
Continue its way up because it really gave back quite a bit after its previous move up to 132
You know so all the way back to 115 and bounce showing some support at prior resistance
So let's see that and again with the volume shelf so targeting 123 124 actually
We got 20-day moving average there for BX, so that'll be interesting take some profits there if we get there
Yeah, those are some of my names to see what else on my list. Oh, you know I should definitely mention
Draft Kings at an interesting spot here
You know I'm a big fan of Draft Kings as well
Anybody's been listening to me trade over the past year and we're making some good money with Draft Kings for sure
But I think unless we get above Friday's high which was at 3880
We need to close above the eye with some strength if we don't get there today or tomorrow even I think we could see this
You know not quite getting to 39 and see it pull on back to 36 or so so
3593 mean you know the exact number I've got but I like Draft Kings for the long term
So we get a pullback here might be a nice buying opportunity even the head of the Super Bowl and March Madness and all that
So we'll have to see how that goes
So yeah, I think this morning though most interestingly these names that are bouncing off of their anchor view up
I'm gonna take a look at see for a nice
Potential swing trading some of these names this week and maybe just get in on some day trading this morning
I got talked enough. I hit it back wolf, but let me know you have any other questions for me. Happy to hear there's the bell
Yeah, here's the bell everybody
We've been getting more and more loose on these Monday mornings
So feel free to just jump in with whatever you are looking at. Good morning. Kim Paul Casey Rachel Matt
Mikey Evan, how's it going? Everybody? What's up, Casey?
Good morning. Good morning. How you doing?
Good man, what's going on? Oh
Nothing someone not kind of already covered it. I'm not gonna speak too much on it
I'm just trying to get my charts everything pulled up but outside of spying QQ Q
I'm looking at IWM. So IWM is gonna be my main focus
It's still kind of range-bound in no man's land not anywhere near all-time highs or anything
So it does have potential to play upside and downside
Sessions before of all current levels of support resistance above unlike some others that are already making all-time highs
So IWM is gonna be my main focus for right now
Very nice. What's up, Mikey?
Morning morning. Good morning. How you doing?
Watching this Celsius seeing if we can get a bounce back. They finally got into the UK
Watching yang have you seen this thing China's getting flushed right now
Took your yang already up 40% here to date
Now it's your DWA C can see good heavy activity at the opening of my CW AC
Yeah, pH UN is going right here it's up 22%
Yo, yo, how's it going? Good. Oh, you're talking about Celsius. I had to um, I was at Costco yesterday
And I saw a pack of Celsius there. I had to buy it
Everyone keeps hyping it up talks about how good it is
I'm drinking one right now. It's it's actually it's pretty it's pretty legit pretty legit. Actually
What flavor Paul? I got a peach. It tastes like a peach ring. It's it's actually really good. I was surprised
I've got an arctic vibe right here right next to my phone. Okay. Yeah peach vibe
So it's the same you bought the same pack that I did at Costco. That's funny
That's a great video this week $600 calls coming in active firm videos
Be a really nice gap up spy cues
Tesla's sort of chopping around this
210 212 sort of support here. I don't expect video sticks 10 call
Oh boy already in the 600s
Yeah, well, yeah, I don't expect Tesla to drop too much farther than this and I think it's got nice support here
But yeah and video over 600 pretty incredible. I was looking at the SMH
Distribution. Okay, like what what is the breakdown of SMH for all these different companies?
Invidia has gained so much value that it's 25% of SMH right now
Videos up what for three four hundred billion already this year. Yeah, it's something insane
Invidian up 25% here today a
$36 call. Yeah firms ripping a firm is took along on SMP futures right out the door on the gap and go just to run
Up 49 or two as my upper targets as ED vans and rocks here
All signs that go be called golden setup. Everything's looking great. No my next divergence
All lights are green on the platform. So I
Think that's the bullish is ever good
Wow, I'm sorry Tesla 220 call
SMC I continue it's ripped from last week up 12% already this morning. Yes, you VNA are
$90 calls are up four hundred and eighty-five percent
ticker PLTR ripping here up six and a half percent
Just watch Roblox as well Roblox really strong out of the gate over $40 of about almost 4% this morning
Knew I speak 500 high. I believe is Wow
Yeah, it's good good Friday to swing longs for sure
SMC I Wow another 13% here. Jesus Christ. Yeah, those premiums are in juice
SMC I went up a hundred and thirty dollars a share in two days
No, it's a great video. I should see not to see the call activity. Wow, everything's flying point 130 call
Let's see what else like in Adobe it didn't close to all-time highs
Watch the spreads can be kind of tough, but I think it's 633
In this name today a new all-time new all-time high on QQQ new all-time high on SPY
Living with history right here folks
Every day you guys trade the open eyes on a melt-up mode probably so I'm you know
If earnings come in halfway decent this market can definitely go above 5,000
Not much it's got a 15-minute spinning top
Amazon relative weakness. It is like one of the only red names that I have here on my watch list
Yeah, yeah, I see that. Yeah, Microsoft and Amazon Amazon's getting smacker at the open Wow PLTR
Yeah, nice job anyone that swung
Google 150 calls on this tip to view up. I'm using lower day as a stop there at 72 cents
Good stuff. Remember see profit take profit the line just doesn't go up to infinity
We got new 52 week highs on Google today as well
Feel like Google's destined for all-time highs
It's only three more dollars, I know the name Sally Papa JD
Baba another so yeah, it's China's getting
Apple popping up here over 194
Now it's like kidding and that's like visiting our upper target 17 584 TV and this is the upper
rational target from the NASA so anything about peer marketing the choppy and weird but
SMP is starting to show a little bit of signs of pullback possibly gap fill
There's only some are just one negative. So I'm just not closing out my lungs that I took for a tiny scalp in the open
So I'm gonna wait for the market to dip and pull back any dips today
We have 40 and a half hatch first around spy
So I think that's that's gonna be some really rock solid support for the new month
We're good. I don't have to take profit first and wait for the market. It was great stuff fat
So I agree with that. This is a good place if you're long take take some profits
Of course, the market could just keep ripping up here, but good good profit-taking area
Mike you were those Baba 75 weeklies or next week 70s weeklies 70 weeklies. Got it
Yeah, adobe adobe is pretty interesting like Rachel was talking about adobe
And that's our SAV city off of Victor echo. No David, uh,
Safe what's port night trading safe? See a V. Oh, yeah
Dude said diamond hands after his
His investment went down 25% and then and and he became profitable on that trade the same day pretty pretty incredible
I think those is when when those were down 25% I think six dollar calls
went 3,000 plus percent the same day just
Just what a movement on safe
Apple's doing pretty good this morning as well
Anyone buying those goofy goggles
There's no spirit like CNA a puppet activity after 40 guys tweeting that he's still a quote. I still have all my safe
Let's see more buying coming in
Ion cue is already pumping this morning on my watch list, but I think that there might be more to grab on to here
Caterpillar cate 9 to 92 50 call
Affirm our 4650 is almost in the money
Wow nice, I don't know exactly where you got in on those but I see them up like 16%
What's up Paul what I see looking at
UPS TR 36 dollar calls almost in the money. Nice job. Nice job
Yeah, ooh, definitely looking at Adobe Rachel was talking about that near all-time highs definitely is
Most looking at that CBNA $55 call January 26. Don't forget. We also have the $90 call swings for February 16th
Yeah, it's moving yeah carvana so CVNA that's going to
Let's go into 5,000, right? It's at 40 49. It's almost at 50 tapped almost at 50 today, right? Yeah, pretty close
What an incredible run by carvana Mike. Well, we're the 90 carvanas. What was the the
Just to let you know we're already out 450 percent on those those are for February 16th
Yeah, just curious. Thank you
Okay, great job with carvana Mikey really really nice stuff I
Roku 90 calls I like that it's a downtrend break above the tennis and they on the daily
So I'll be watching that one
Sometimes it doesn't really move with the market even though we're pulling back on ES here and I still have Google
With the stock that that little day
Yeah, Roku on the daily chart, there's kind of like a falling wedge
Falling wedge on the daily and this is a definitely nice breakout over that over the the daily 90 ma
I like the trade there with Roku really nice a gap up today
Sorry, when I break out and I gap up stocks after dark you looking anything
I'm looking at a bunch of names that you all said like, you know, carvana a firm and UPS
They're all this, you know falling wedge pattern that is kind of squeezing right now
Looking at Tesla's a hole with the the current level if it doesn't damn looking for a drop down to
The next two swing lows around one I two five point six nine two
one and four point zero seven obviously earnings this week and look to see if it's gonna do a run down or hold this level and
Minute this week also looking at BA, you know, it's currently in the gap. They'll look and see if it fills up
The rest of the gap up to two seventeen point zero four
Looking for targets go down to maybe
138 and if it doesn't hold that then you know, there's a gap
All the way down at I think at like 112 124
But this is obviously a longer longer term play and whatnot, but I am currently short on on NQ
NASA features hit our 17 585 pivot and just turn
Microsoft just got a nasty red candle that came in and QQQ just got a really really big pullback there
Alert and rockets here cutting index divergence showing that the SMP while remaining strong the Nasdaq is pulling back
The Nasdaq resilience number went negative which means it's going to try to fill its gap to the downside Nasdaq futures
But when you usually have a fight between the SMP and NASDAQ the SMP is usually the stronger indicator and it's still
Surprisingly, it might keep Nasdaq from from dying too hard today
So I think any short plays would be short-lived. I I would say if I was short scalping
Yep drop Kings a week to add to the 37 puts
On the break below 38 and targeting some things profits once you get down about 37 50 see how it acts there
Keep in mind with Netflix earnings tomorrow Roku can move with that too
Yeah, anybody I'm taking testing here just scrap
Money still going into the semis
Yeah, so like I like what spy is doing uh, it took some longs some spy 46 longs for friday
Uh, so 126 expiration not not doing zero dates right now
Uh, so 126. Sorry. Yeah 126 expiration spy 46 calls at uh, my average is a buck 93
Yeah, I like I like what spy is doing here, um
Yeah, apple's hitting a new high day here
Okay, she just broke our r2 r3 is at 113 27 for end phase
Okay, kim, what else are you looking at kim?
I'm I'm just being cautious right now because we just had such a big move up. So I did take
Mikey's tesla's because I think
I think that was one of the most oversold tesla's been in I don't remember the timeline but like years or something so
Probably not years, but it was a long time. So I did take that one because going into earnings, you know
But otherwise just um, I did try spx short. Um
And then got out at even just tried to see if I could get a little
Move down nice first management. I don't like
115 call january 26 fslr 160 call
I don't like to call out spx because i'm just like really learning it
Learning how to trade it. I mean so it was like a zero dte. Oh the zero dte lotto
I've been doing with spx just one contract at a time just getting used to it. So
But one contract can sim called out one on here friday. She called out the 4800s. It went from 590 to 40
That friday, obviously that's not normal for everyone in the audience, but
It was pretty fun to watch that
That's like starting to look a little bit better
Was that earlier the smp tends to yank the nasdaq around because it's more diversified as an index
Nasdaq starting to look clean again
Iwm still showing relative strength here. It's just continuously making a new highs here. It's going for 195.75
Hey kc. I took I took roblox a little while ago. I've taken her on
I'd say cnph. I could remember papa hotel that increase activity
This week's 120 calls are coming in active friend face
You said you took roblox. Yeah when you were talking about them, I liked it too
But it seemed a little risky to to alert and they're up like 40 now. Yeah
Yeah, the elh c elh 60 call february 16 swing
When I saw that candle it opened all I wanted was a small little pullback closer to uh, like 40 bucks and it gave like
That next candle it did but I took my eyes off it and then I just checked and it was just ripping back up
I was like dagging on my miss. Yeah
Well, thank you. I bet those contracts move nicely. Yeah, you're welcome. Don't forget about our tesla 220s, please
Crawl out of the grave here. Um doing pretty well new high day here for tesla
There's definitely some resistance here
Thursday this this area here up to 216 214 216
Would love to see this fill the gap from uh
It gapped down from tuesday to wednesday. So there's still a kind of a gap here
Would would love to see that gap. So
I just posted a test the chart with a 30 minute target level if you want to see the chart
I just pinned it to the top of the space. It's free to access through that link. Awesome
I just used the platform makes it easy for me to put those out. Love it. Love it
Yeah, matt this uh celsius is pretty good, um
Isn't like it's kind of tastes like those what are those like peach candy? Yeah, you know what I mean like those little gummies
Yeah, it's um the gummy bear kind of thing and there's no i'm looking at the ingredients
There's no like there's no crap in this. There's no bull crap in this. It's just good stuff
No, there's just a ridiculous amount of caffeine like ridiculous biotin they took your ai 28 dollar call
Yeah, I think I might have found my new drink
I don't remember whether it was peter lynch or who has said this but kind of buy what the kids know
My daughter was drinking some coffee
I was like, what's that? They sent me a case?
I was hooked ever since so it's full of caffeine and corn. Fucking ribbon. Let's go mike. Let's go mike
I don't remember whether it was peter lynch or who has said this but kind of buy what the kids know
Two years ago, and you couldn't find them anywhere. They were always sold out
And I mean there's so many stocks like that like where my kids have been really into something and you know
All of a sudden the stock flies so keep your ears to the ground with teens
Now that casca is a believer in celsius. I can I can also be a believer believer in celsius
Well, yeah, that's distribution spy. You hide
Affirm new high for those still in the 46 50s. I'm at 20. I'm q breaking out here
Coin just ripping. I'm at 20 for spy friday calls right now
Yeah, those road food apps do not forget about our mdb swings
Do mikey's mikey's crew is having a day love it
If firm calls up 42 percent
Iwm is ripping. It's probably going to go up here and tap
196.5 full target upsides 197 if iwm does hit 197 i'm absolutely going to short there
Moving in tandem with the firm
Coin or 130 calls in the money story
Oh, I just reduced road food for plus 70% and google's coming back. It's nearing
Plus 20% soon up here. It held
Ticker game stop shares TV spike and activity new highs for game stuff
Let's jump on caterpillar here
Do it. Yeah tesla's trying, you know, keep an eye on paypal. There was a lot of bullish flow
Um, I actually that's one thing I am in. Um, the 67 calls, but I didn't put those on today. I put them on friday
Enph are 115 calls are almost in the money
Fslr 160 call. Sorry. No, you're good. You're good. Go for it. Our 160 calls are almost in the money
Huge technical breakout for paypal potentially here
There's a cloud if you use the 200 ema and 200 sma and you just create a cloud between them
It hasn't actually broken and held that cloud since october of 2021 first time it did it was on friday
I'm i'm happy about that one. I have the comments as well, but
Yeah, I actually really like this i'm gonna go in and take a comment position right here on paypal
It finally broke above the 200 day on friday also for the first time since july. So
That one's been beaten down exactly
on on january 10th for paypal on spaces here
I alerted the 70 call for february 16th at a dollar as a starter position
I did miss my next uh average down but the contract is still up 230 here for the 70 call february 16th
That's still a new high for those in the 220s
And what are your contracts up mike
A percentage mine are at 20. I have to look oh no worries. Okay
26 26.23 they seem to be moving a little slow
No watch taker sq square block it is ripping here
I like that entry point on paypal too. I just took commons for now
Uh, there's 196.5 on iwm so i'm expecting a little bit of a struggle here
But at some point I do expect it to break above that go test that 197
A little bit of a pullback here on indidia. Yeah
And andy's having some challenges cv cvna oh go on go on
Um cvna is approaching the new high a day the 90 calls are up 530 percent. Wow
Uh amd you guys were talking about nvidia amd is having a rough rough go today right now
Tesla looking strong. It was kind of a laggard this morning new high tesla
Other news from this morning apple, I mean evan, I don't know if you want to call these out
I can if not apple back over three trillion dollar market cap here
Like we talked about nvidia did break through 600. It's now trading back under it at five ninety eight point seven
There's a little bit of stuff at the black rock offices that they're looking to sell
complex in shanghai china at 30 discount to purchasing price
Oh, uh tesla got a price target lowered today by morgan stanley to 345 from 380 while maintaining its overweight rating
There's stuff on apple with how many vision pros sold over the weekend estimate of 160 to 180
They sold out supposedly. That's what I heard
I believe and they're only making 340 000 or something, right?
I believe that they sold out their initial inventory, which was just 80 000 units
And then they expected 300 to 400 000 to be totally sold and right now
It seems like they've sold about 160 to 180
over the course of the weekend
Yeah, it's not a bad start. Not a bad start
You got any other thing any other stuff you wanted to throw in evan?
Now you have most of it. I the celsius international expansion would have been the one I wouldn't hit on I was watching that
But I know you saw that so cool briefly mentioned that in the morning. I know I heard I heard
Meta is getting past the bank of america new high for those who are 33 50
Nice meta's close to one trillion though
Back to joining the event before no. Yeah. Yeah, I think so. What was their market cap when they were under a hundred bucks
It got down to like 300 billion incredible
This is this right here we just
We broke our two on tesla we're gonna see two 18 53
My guess is you're using afro hours data too, but I see us as new all-time highs right here today for meta
Yeah, but the market cap in the past was um
It was over. So how are we not at one trillion?
And we're at all-time highs today, but you're saying we fit it in the past
Someone probably has the answer for you. I am not currently
Mike i'm up 43 percent on that
All right, but this is all-time highs for meta today, right?
390.1 or three. Yes. Yes. Yes. That has been
Enph are 115 calls are in the money
Rippin absolutely queen calls were called out, right?
130s. Yeah 130s new high app up 36 percent
And we also have 41 50s for our vlx. Did you call pass?
Rippin right here. Yeah, unfortunately, I cannot
Ai is ripping today. I don't know if anyone saw that
Yeah, I called out 28 calls. Oh my mistake. My brother's at the nicey. He just sent me a picture of him with jim kramer
So there's a 13 week bill, um the bond auction at uh
Yeah, there's two two bond auctions today at 11 30 a.m
So just uh, if you're in positions long or short, just be careful when 11 30 a.m rolls around today
Oh boy meta meta to the downside
Yeah, I had a 85 puts on meta
Uh, if anybody checked out that test that tried to pin up top we slammed through that target level nice shot wolf
Thanks, it only took us like 10 minutes I was thinking 30 queues are looking a little weak
Not sure if there's gonna be fall through or we just chop here, but um, just keep an eye on downside for cues
I'm not gonna play downside for cues, but it's a
A potential there's potential there for downs. There's 55
55 percent on afrm upstart calls are up 85. We're getting closer to our first bagger today
Unless we already have one someone cracked me but i'm pretty closely monitoring everything
CBNA new high a day for those in the uh calls
Yeah, our 28 calls are printed. Yeah, I think they're up like 40
So if I still going up over 10 now on the day
Are 36 calls or two dollars in them two dollars in the money
Please take your first trim
90 here on UPST calls stocks up 15 and a half percent on the day
How are you doing? Are people just excited for earning season? What is going on here?
Here it is rolling squeezes on even
Even emph is up 10 percent
install fire is running because of of uh
January 31st a spine cues are getting pulled back right now
Yeah, that's that warning sign we had earlier than now is like resilience number showed that QQQ
You're seeing an increase of activity new highs. Bravo alpha
Uh, I like cues downside a little bit here. I would let it go below 422.5
Matt does that kind of line up with what you were saying? Say it again you got
I like the cues downside, but I want to give it another like 20 cents here
Yeah, I would let it I would let it pull back a little tiny bit. Um, let me get the I'm gonna get the numbers really quick
Uh, it's not a bear market, but any pull back into into this territory is great
That's all my team today. Um, i'm looking at 419 QQQ is that rock song head pressure support?
And QQQ has already hit the finish line for the day that 585 number
I tweeted it on my twitter account if you guys could take a look this our overnight resistance calculation
Called DD van hit it turn around pivoted. I don't think the market's going to sell off at all
I think this our monthly map show it's bullish for like three weeks into february
So this can be a really strong non-volatile bullish month
So any pullbacks i'm just looking for opportunities to get in and scalp up
QQQ I personally would probably let it pull back a little bit more than here and I would still long it to finish out the day
Burger king workers now have to give you a crown and say you rule per bloomberg
I gotta say that is I still I think still the greatest ad of all time that jingle is not it's gonna be stuck in my head
Got to ask you which one but I don't want the same yeah sing it for us
Have it your way you rule
Yeah, I love I love that jingle that's actually like the only ad that i'm not mad at when it comes on
I just sing along the pickles hold the lettuce special orders. Don't upset it
Is burger king owned by like yum brands or something
Uh tesla new high I think burger king and tim horton's are owned by some sort of uh
Yeah, it's where the qsr yeah vc venture capital
Do you remember burger king used to have that thing in the playground where you would you would like going
There's a ladder inside of like a metal tube and you would crop the ladder and then there was a burger shaped
Thing that you can like circulate the ladder at the top and it was like a little window with little jail bars
And it was just like this dangerous little playground equipment
And your perking playgrounds
I feel like I might have missed that. I might have missed that era. They might have outlawed those by the time I was
Oh, they were so dangerous dude dangerous and fun
I would love to see a retest 520
Fun little insider trade right here. Uh representative judy chew just to close disclose two new trades
He day traded apollo medical stock a quarter million dollars day traded ball and sold on the same day
She sits on the subcommittee of health
What are these politicians doing okay at the very least can we um have laws where they can't day trade
Pencil double bottom on meta
It'll eventually get to the point where you where you have
politicians won't be able to um
They won't be able to be elected if they if they're engaged in this type of behavior
like that's how it should get get to be but um
Yeah, I am certainly hopeful and optimistic that that will happen. I mean you've got some people I think like fetterman
Uh his pledge that he's not going to trade or anything like that while he's in office
I think you you might eventually see a c change with that and it's good that you know people like who's gonna the thing is
Who's gonna make that law though? They have to know. I don't think it'll be a law. I think it'll just be like
Like uh the work that unusual wales wales is done by like making this type of stuff public
Uh making people pay attention to this and shame people
Um that I think that is definitely having a positive effect in that direction. I I definitely don't see them making a law passing a law
Uh to to regulate themselves, but uh, you know, maybe maybe one day
But shame certainly helps
But they'll prosecute people for insider trading right yeah, the just the the hoy poi the uh the plebs
The whole will prosecute you but not us of course it really nice bounce from uh spy
And cues reclaiming trying to get back to high a day here
All right, I took some amd calls here
I have 168 as a support line on amd. So I like that. It looks like it might down to break
Yep, me too. I had 168 in those last two five minute candles. Uh, they both wicked down there below it
But then closed above so just looking for a little uh bounce back up here to view up
Hopefully those 175s print
I'm not usually long and short but I am long palantir with the 18 dollar calls and short draft kings here
With the 37 puts and draft kings struggling at 38 here. I think breaks lower meaningfully
I think we see it make new lows for the day to write a view up
The palantir is looking strong he called that out early wolf
Yeah, I think mikey called that one. Oh, is it mikey nice naturally
But yeah, I think it was the 1850s it was 1850s they are currently up about 60 percent
Got in those at 32, so not bad not bad at all. What are they at now? They're at like 40. Yeah pushing 40
Kim what else has been keeping your attention today?
You know, I do like the tesla, you know, uh playing it into earnings for sure just because of how
much of a down move it's had
And I know a lot of you know, I hear a lot of people getting into tesla at these levels like buying the commons
Yeah, 212 is a good level for commons. I've I bought some commons, uh 212 a couple times
And then celsius, you know wolf because I started a position on that remember when it made that downturn
Bought a couple times that day
Yeah, I added this morning so to to my commons I didn't buy options
Yeah, it's been pretty volatile today
I'm also rivians moving up with tesla, you know, that's gotten a big smack down
So watching rivian, I like that as a you know alternate play
Maybe amd starts getting a little bit of love right here, too
I think crowd strike might
It just broke out to new all-time highs and um, palo alto had a huge rip when it broke out of all-time highs
So i'll have this one on my radar as well
Kind of a laggard, you know, it was a new ipo that i've really been watching and
Interested in starting a position in is insta cart c-a-r-t. So
I'm really watching that one. Um, you know, it never went anywhere after its ipo except for straight down
And hasn't moved with this, uh market app either what's the ticker cart
C-a-r cart c-a-r-t. I don't I haven't looked at their flow or anything but i'm interested in that one
Yeah, I think any any company that you can go long on which helps people be lazy is good
Go long on laziness for sure and uh insta cart is in that wheelhouse
Netflix insta cart door dash uber. Yeah, any of those companies. I think you're good good long-term bets
Mdb new high a day our 440 call swings for this week are up almost 300 percent
It's easy to take uh the performance of mikey my daily performance of mikey's uh, yeah for granted
It's easy to take it for granted because it's just like he's just catching all these rippers constantly
That's your rumble. Are you last year? Pretty incredible. Give me new highs and rumble
R-u-m penny stock essentially more bucks 50 cents
It's up a dollar it's up a dollar today it's pretty incredible for a penny stock
What is rumble it's like a youtube competitor
I think the main competitors the youtube are
Vimeo and rumble and odyssey, but I think rumble's maybe the only publicly traded one
If anyone took roku those calls are double now nice well done
Yeah, nice little rip off the bat this morning
Mikey, how you feeling for the general gist of the week with earnings? Are you looking at gamma levels?
What else are you looking at throughout this week?
I'm looking at uh, the gamma levels i'm looking at uh
Call flows and i'm looking at
Uh daily performance and volume on each sticker
Evan do you want to cover a little bit of the things people should be keeping an eye out for this week pretty busy week
I can also do it if need be
All right, iwm to a high of day
Um, it's charting perfectly it went up to the 196.5 area
Like I said struggled just a little bit and then it should go 197 so far that plan's working out
So so not much yeah, what's your shorting level for iwm you're you're saying that you're you're
If it gets up to a certain level you're you're probably going to shortlist it like
Yeah, when it starts to get closer to this 197
Perfect yeah, 197 10 is when it wicked up on friday
Uh friday january 12th. Yeah, that was a really strong high wicked up to 197 10. So, okay. Yeah, I see that
Yeah, it's I first started this level on january 8th at double top there
On january 8th it retested this level again on january 11 and then on january 12th
It hit there again and rejected. So just this 197 area is a really big spot for iwm to get up. Love it. Love it
I mean risk to reward there's no better spot for a short with a really tight stop than right there
Good stuff. Good stuff. Casey
Snowflake new high a day for those who took the swing play
The 240s for february 16th
So some of the stuff just to know for this week that's going to be happening
Not much today as opposed to logitech earnings if you're interested in that in united airlines
But tomorrow you've got netflix earnings wednesday. You have tesla earnings. You have a bank of canada
Bank of canada press conference as well thursday. You're going to have blackstone earnings the ecb rate decision
luviton earnings paypal keynote
Intel earnings visa earnings
And then friday you've got the american express earnings as well
That's a lot of what's going on this week to be paying attention to
I'm trying to s pnya tonight therapeutics at the highs now five dollars thirty eight cents up three percent
thank the november yankee alpha
What's the reaction level in spy at 484 23
i think you're seeing why i take a november yankee alpha
Is there anything going on bar stool and rumble here like what was that level spy again, yes there is
There's a partnership. There's a partnership with bar stool and rumble. Wow
Wow, that makes a lot of sense. Wow
Soaring mikey you looking at this it's up 27 percent
Yeah, unfortunately, I can't talk about rumble
D whack kind of going to it's up 23 percent. We talked about that this morning
Ph un looking for new highs 20 up 3 2 as well
Damn, you guys are up 700 percent on mdb the heck
That's amazing. I'm only up 315 percent
Lucky yeah, mike I sold the original position
Oh, that's why I was like, how the hell did you do that?
Bobby just ain't cutting it
Damn, I wish i'd seen that rumble news like an hour ago
Of course, of course, they were gonna pop off that
Yeah, we bought him 50 bna. Definitely
I just don't want to take it. I'm pretty sure smci should put you in the guinness
That play on friday was incredible
Yeah, well if it's up since open
Yeah, I mean a gap had a nice gap up, but it's up 20
76 cents cents open rumble. Um, what a rip
That would have been a really nice money maker there
Uh news like which one rumble?
Um, oh, they might smci. Oh, yeah that too
I mean there's traders out there that their main their main tool is the news and and that's what they go off of and uh
You know, it's it's a very legitimate
Profitable strategy just got to um, you just got to be patient and you got to wait. You got to wait till it comes in
Um, but yeah play it playing news news trades can turn out really really really profitable
Yeah, accusing spy get a little pullback here
Apple as well a little pullback
Don't forget about alta not alta. Sorry, uh, octa
Okta are 110 march march 16th call swings
15th or 16th, whatever that friday is
So roblox seems seem to have found a new
New support here sitting just under 41
Yeah, really nice move up roblox earlier in the day i'm still on calls I didn't alert him
But I got in when case he was talking about him and uh, yeah roblox is to
Just doing pretty well had a nice trim off there
All right, q's trying to make its way back up same with spy
Uh apple trying for high day now
It's kind of sitting at this uh
194 91 level. Okay. I think that's new high day there for for apple. Yep
And how's microsoft doing I think kim was saying microsoft was looking weak earlier. Yeah, it's still looking pretty bad. How about amazon?
Yeah, it's down any it's amazing how fast the sediment changes because there was so much bearishness on apple now
It's just ran out of that 181 area. Yep. Yeah straight up
Crypto not really coming with the party bitcoin just been sinking a little bit here past couple hours
All right, just chug this celsius 200 gram 200 milligrams of caffeine i'm ready to uh
Ready to do a 5k. How about you matt ready?
Wait, say that again. I just I just chugged my uh, the rest of my celsius here 200 milligrams of caffeine
I'm ready to uh, i'm ready to run a 5k. How about you?
Yeah, bro. I'm about to order an uber to get us to the hospital
Anybody have defibrillator defibrillator is how we say yeah, I can never say that word
The defibrillator the fit. Yeah defibrillator. Yeah challenging one. Oh, it's great
It's like a a sweet berry kind of flavor kind of like berry skittles, man
And it's so tasty like I I only I i'll take one and i'll babysit it for the week, dude
I'll sip a little bit put it up. I just right go to the gym. You baby
That's my second that's my second favorite celsius flavors that arctic berry one, uh, what's your favorite casey?
Um, so I just found out the celsius. They actually make them like in like bigger cans like a tall boy
And they have a berry one. They have a like a cherry limeade, but they have one. That's a uh, an orange cream sickle
Um, that one's my favorite. How much how much caffeine is in the tall boy? I mean you got 200 milligrams in oh
Shit, I don't know. I just drink 12 ounces
I'll tell you guys the hidden secret one. You can't get it at like husky or anything. You have to go online to order
It's called bougie apple pear. That's actually my favorite favorite one
And it's just like this like an app. It's just like apple. It's so so crisp and tasty
It's actually really nice kind of reminds me of like those manzanita or whatever the the apple soda
You say bougie bougie apple pear
Oh fuji uji, okay bougie apple pear, hmm
All right apple pear sounds sounds good. Seriously though, man
I'll sip I'll sip on one before I go to the gym before I go visit my trainer
I'll take like three sips before I start my stream
Is it just caffeine that crazy amounts of caffeine?
So i'm very sensitive to caffeine get an old dude having high blood pressure, you know, I guess sure sure
You just gotta you gotta work it off. You gotta
Now you got all that energy. You gotta you gotta earn it with um with the work at the gym for sure
AMD not getting that turnaround. Yeah Q is actually coming back down to orb low here for 22 15
It is windy here i'm down in fort lauterdale for a week i'm looking out at the ocean and these are some giant ass waves
Nice that airport didn't don't love that airport. I was just down there went on a uh,
Caribbean cruise. Yeah, it's not the greatest
People are waiting in line for the for the single there's like one lounge there and and
The line to wait in that one lounge which was full was like 30 deep. I'm like, uh, no, thanks
Not even a good lounge I do like this view though i'll show you if you want to see the view
Yeah, yeah, yeah, pretty solid
Uh Q's just hit I just low a day there for a second
Dip down I just pinned the view pin the view to the top of the space. It's pretty solid
Yeah, it's not too shabby looks a little chilly out
Dude, it's not it's not the warmest that i've ever seen but it's it's still like 70. It's just windy
Look at the comments here overweight stock
And he's up 36 on his account pnl. Great job, dude. That's awesome
Meta our 385 puts are almost in the money
Nice shot nice shot mike. All right Q's starting to look good the downside
We just broke bwap on es here
We just broke bwap on es here
Look at that. Yeah Q's pretty ugly
Still love google to the upside but short term all right google filter to get to the downside
I took some puts they were close expiration, but uh, they moved a little bit too quick for me to alert but
Full target was a 421.98 422 area
Tesla gonna give it all back, huh?
Yeah, tesla's looking ugly
Who else is in paypal here which by the way had a little bit of a little bit of a turnaround
I'm also in those spx says but I only have one contract. That's all i'm using
I got in at 380 at the 4850s
I've been in paypal for a little bit now, but that's why I lost the ema 113
What's up, I was just saying you're saying you're saying who else is in paypal I got some you know it
What else are you looking at are you still in here in fort logdale?
I'm going to be leaving soonish. I need to be up for some of the later spaces
And earnings, I think we've united airlines after the close today, right?
Mmm, yes, yes, we do united logitech and
brown and brown apparently
I've never really heard of this company, but they have a big ass market
Have you ever heard of them evan, uh, no i'm not heard of them heard of brown bro
I've seen the ticker a lot, but not
I guess now that everybody's watching for down side. It's going to take a sec
Rachel what else were you looking at you were talking about roku adobe. Are you looking at any earnings coming up?
Right now i'm i'm looking at um intel too into earnings since that has earnings on thursday i'm thinking
If it can get back above friday side, that would be an interesting one to play
Like us premium will hold but it's kind of logging today with the rest of semis. I do like apple again
Um, it's flagging here, but I don't think i'm going to take anything at the moment
Yeah, apple's interesting so evan, what were you making of the data that we have coming out around apple?
You thought it was pretty good data let's make you bullish for them more in this year
It depends how accurate that three hundred four hundred thousand dollar
But 160 000 with a 400k total year target alleged feels like that's something they can at least squeak over obviously
It's super expensive. So a lot of the sales will improve orders and will go slower, but
It was always made for them to sell out on the first day adk units gone
And yeah 160 180 is pretty solid
I it won't change anything. It's a proof of concept device. So we have to see how it does get on forward, but i'm excited
Not a massive user base though at the start for someone of apple scale
Matt what do your monthly maps look like here for cues and spy?
I'd be curious to hear but no he's also do live streaming
Market mark is still pretty active. What's up? Also? Yeah
Uh, I I did I had to go fk for a little bit. Um
Yeah, when I was when I was saying like hey watch cues to the downside
Uh, i'm not going to take this trade but watch cues to the downside
I mean that was that was actually like a really good entry
Good amount since then. I was gonna say right when you right when you said that I was looking at cues to the downside
And that's when I took the puts. Oh, you took them nice. Nice
So you took I took your um, I just pulled up my chart as well. I took your roblox long
I think your roblox longs when you mentioned it you took my key puts when I mentioned it. That's great. Love it
Hey, there we go. Yeah, uh spy on the three minute. I just pulled it up had a head and shoulders
And it had a five minute squeeze to the downside at 10 25 along with the mac d cross to the downside
And then right at around uh that 10 25 10 27 time
That's when we got that nasty red candle and everything gave that kind of big push to the downside. So that kind of helped cues
Break that low of day and go feel that gap that it had free market at 422
So that was the reason why I had taken the puts overall. It just looked constructive just for a little bit more downside there
Meta 385 puts in the money, please secure your profits
I have a fit about this 4883 level on eso. Looks like we could possibly bounce here
Yep, this is why it's important to secure those profits in the morning last up does end up pulling back absolutely
Pretty classic example of it tessa still pulling some downside here as well
All what earnings are you going to be looking at
You know, i'm not really a big fan of earnings anymore. It's just it's become too much of a um
Like playing into earnings what I usually look for though is
In my buddy my buddy link I trade with him
He he does this very well as the iv flush plays the day after
So a lot of times you you've got this
implied movement of like, okay
X stock is gonna it's got a plus or minus of like 10 percent or something like that
A bit and then, you know, if you get a mixed earnings and let's say that the stock after hours is flat
Um, both sides are getting burned there and there's an opportunity for those contracts
Uh to be scooped up in the morning with with high volume and high volatility
For some really nice plays that go like a hundred percent like that like real real quick
So that's how I usually play earnings like if there's a really nice kind of juicy
iv flush play which okay didn't it didn't hit nearly uh any anywhere close to its uh implied move
Um the day after you just got to watch the volume
What what's what's the price action watch the volume wait for a uh, you know an opportunity to go long or go short
on one of those plays, um, so
Yeah, I I would recommend, you know googling iv flush play or you know, there's there's some interesting videos on youtube
Uh, I got some education on on my website that talks about that
But yeah, that's to to me. That's what I look for
I don't really care too much about the fundamentals and none of us should really
Care that much about it when we're when we're trading when you're in and out of a trade
Five minutes 10 minutes an hour. You don't really care too much about the fundamentals doesn't even really matter
Um, you know what the what the earnings slides are you don't have to listen to the calls
That's only for like long-term investing but for trading for iv flush plays
Uh, you know just chase chase where the uh chase where the money's going
Because because a lot of times if you try to play
Those earnings those earnings
It's sort of like a uh, it's against you. Uh, the odds are against are against you
So I would caution but but you know sometimes
You're you're hitting a lotto ticket like uh, like when nvidia went up a hundred bucks. Uh, you're getting a lot or when
Uh, I think it was like netflix or meta. They both one of their earnings. They dropped like 25 percent or something
Which is just incredible. Okay, you're getting a
You're getting a 2000 percenter right there even with the implied move. Um
But they're more lotto plays it's it's more you're more in the territory of gambling than trading at that point
You know for me personally, I would caution playing earnings unless you know something and someone always knows something
But if you know something don't tell anyone don't don't sit
Don't do anything illegal. How about that?
Don't don't be a silly billy, but uh, yeah when when it comes to earnings I play the iv flush the day after
I don't know if anyone else has some
Interesting earning strategies or I think a lot of people largely stay away from them
I think that's usually the smart play
Um, but if anyone else Paul, I have I have the best earning strategy ever. I have the best earning. All right. I want to hear it
Follow what mikey says what I mean. Yeah. Yeah
With when mikey, so the thing is with earnings is I hate earnings and I hate playing earnings 100 percent
I will play certain tickers for earnings if the inspect if the implied move the expected move for this stock
Is something just like astronomical like it's it's something big i'm not looking for a stock to pop
Like two three percent. I want to see something either drop 15 20 percent or rocket up that much
Those uh what the implied move can be the expected move
Whatever those are those are the ones that I trade and then for picking which strike and expiry and how to hedge properly for the trade
Whenever mikey calls out what he's doing
If i'm watching those same ones that are going to have those big moves if he calls out something on that
I'll be honest with you. Those are the ones that I take and I I expect zero 100
Size for zero if it all goes to shit and whatever you you play the game. That's how it is, but
I just look for the ones that make can make the biggest moves and then if mikey calls it out i'm like, hell
Yeah, let's go. Yeah, totally agree with the sizing aspect. I mean that's funny and it's true
But like you know talking about the sizing aspect. That's your best
That's your best, uh risk management tool there is sizing, you know assume that if you're playing yeah, yeah 100 something like that
That's your maximum downside. Are you okay?
You know having having that go to zero like if you're not then your size too heavy
Wm almost hit 197. Uh, it was 18 cents off and now it just dropped a whole dollar and 30 cents. Uh,
It didn't want to give me the entry for the downside. But boy, did it sure work out? So
I want to see q q q break low of day and go to
421.25 421.3 that will be my full target, but my stops are at break even now on these puts
um, i'm just going to sit back and watch amazon and
Continue to make lower lows and lower highs
Amazon's the main one that i'm watching just relative weakness straight to the downside and then apple the exact opposite relative strength going upside
Somebody killed test test a new low a day. It's looking real bad
I just clicked over on the chart. I said that hasn't been a green candle a five minute quite some time
Yeah, I mean that's it's working on its fourth red 15 minute candle in a row
Remember what I said about una
Qs trying for low day new low day queues
Yeah, spy's testing a support level I have but my algo is trying to trigger short
And it's also lining up with spy or qqq down here at low day
So if these two things break we should get another little leg down
I like the cues for a leg down. I'm waiting on it. I've been sitting here for 20 minutes waiting on it
apple's getting big self put
I'm up 15 on these puts. I should be closer to
20 25 percent if it gets down to that 421.3 area
New lows on amd big candle down on invidia. It's going to pull the queues down
See elh new hire day for those that the calls win
Damn, that's a big down candle on apple. Here we go
There you go new love day qqq new love day i'm up 20 on qqq about to hit full target just about 10 cents off
I'm not going to be too greedy. I'll market sell here in a second
Smart man, yeah, sometimes you just got to market sell
Yeah, just for the audience, I mean there's nothing wrong with using one contract at a time
That's what i've been doing until you get used to a ticker. That's what i've been doing with spx
And so you just like learn your levels play one contract
And you know, i've already made 250 bucks on it
I know that's not a lot compared to mikey, but that's just with using one contract and just using it twice
All right, anybody else oh yeah, go for it. Oh, sorry. I was gonna say so far the algo on spy short is
Uh working and then qqq hitting full target here. My position is now up 23 percent. I am going to scale
Boom, look at the keys drop very nice
Nate how do you approach earnings?
I got the hiccups. I don't know where the hell they came from
Similar to what paul's talking about is take advantage of the implied earnings
Heading or applied volatility heading into earnings and uh, excuse me. There they are and uh, get some uh
Cover call activity, you know sell some cover calls potentially as some you know higher spots, um, take advantage of
Collecting premium against those you know, juiced options contract. Excuse me. That's how I typically do it
And um, then I also wait till after earnings and see what happens
But I usually don't hold open through if I do it's a runner because i've already
You know taken tons of profits off the table and then we'll let one, you know, one or two runners go
Speaking of which draft kings puts are looking good. Draft kings make a new low a day. So i'm loving to see that
But yeah, so a lot of big names come up with earnings. Excuse me, too
So i'm definitely looking at those contracts and trying to see where those opportunities are
Um, but primarily if I am trading i'm closing out like like I was saying most of those positions just ahead
Um, what was I just looking at? Excuse me looking at
Oh, you know, I think i've been looking at tesla. I got tesla on the brain
We have to find some support here first. But yeah, that's that's the long and short of it. Keep pretty simple
And uh, try to generate some cash
So I can take advantage of any dips that happen on the back end of earnings if we get any sell-offs
It looked like buying opportunities, you know, just turn around and put that money right to work
You know with that i'm gonna go try to clear up these hiccups
I don't know what the hell's going on. So i'm gonna get back you guys have a great day trading
i'm sure i'll catch you again and
Get you on the next one. Good luck. Everybody. Good game. Nate. I think it's good
Yes, we are getting a little bit of a
It is breaking back over a lot of just took a long scalp on the s&p. Um, I went long at 48 81
Nice just s&p. Uh, just to go just to go for about eight points. That's it. Just eight points. It's a scalping on the way out
You got like three green candles since then
Yeah, a lot of people will laugh that uh, maybe looking at the one minute chart here but um
Yeah, one minute chart on queues
Looks a little interesting to the upside here. We are breaking it up over the 90 ma on the one minute
In and out is going to permanently close uh their first restaurant ever in the company 75 year history
Is that the one in oakland?
It is the one that is in uh, it's definitely in california. Yeah, it's the one in oakland
They said the crime rate is too high and they their workers don't feel safe
Yeah, yeah the workers and the uh, the patrons they said it's a profitable location, but um
The the crime has made it untenably safe to continue to operate. Um, which is uh
Fix it's a fixable problem
It's a you just need the political will to solve it and it's just it's unfortunate. Definitely. Um
Is what it is though and good for them to sort of recognize the reality of the situation and make sure that their people are safe
I would love to get some in and out on the east coast
They've got they they run a pretty tight logistic pretty tight logistical operation and I think it's um
I think it would be too hard the ask would be too great for them to um
Ship stuff from the west coast to the east coast. They'd have to like basically just duplicate the company on the east coast
You know 10 restaurants at the same time or something get get all the distribution going
The logistics to be it'd be challenging
Uh good company. I really like the company in and out
See on the one minute queues have had uh one two three
Four green candles in a row one red one red candle and now now it's working on another green candle
Is going to attempt to cross the 21 EMA to the upside on the one minute soon
Um people say hey, why do you look at the one minute?
Well, I mean that's where that's where that's where the reversals start
first is on the one minute not the
Three minute the five minute 15 minute
Looking like a dragonfly doji really long tail down
Small tight little candle body near the top
Yeah, they're gonna turn this
10 minute or five minutes left in this queue's 15 minute candle. They're gonna turn this 15 minute candle green right now pretty uh
Pretty wild buyback great job for matt recognizing the opportunity going long
It's always dangerous to fade the trend the the trend there at the time was was down
Dangerous to fade the trend because you can get just destroyed really quick your um
The premiums get vaporized real quick, but uh, great job
The S&P we have this aggregate number called discellaneous
It just looks at the flux of stocks through their gaps and stocks gap up or down
Um, it's market cap weighted. So it's currently a skilled negative 100 to 100. It's 24
So it's slightly above zero
Which just means like the net some of market cap is still trying to hold their gaps and not being them
So I use that as arbitrage with the S&P the S&P selling off while the stocks are holding strong
I usually like to take a take a dip
Scalp just like I just did i'm not looking for the market to reverse
Um, but it's a really small play and just betting that the S&P doesn't
Collapse on itself, but I got a stop loss pretty close
Not too far away like 10 points away if i'm wrong so good stuff darn matter you at macy's right now
And macy's know why just hear the uh hear the shopping music in the background
Oh, bro, I got the lo-fi the lo-fi copyright free streamer music going
The no royalties. Yeah, I don't want I I mean, I need my three dollars a day. I get from my stream, you know
The important part is that they'll i'm not sure what platform you're streaming on but they'll uh, they'll mute it later on
They'll meet the recording if there is copyright music, right?
Yeah, or it's an email and says your your your
Monetization has been shared with the creator of the content on your page and i'm like, oh
I'd like to give this the lo-fi music maker my three dollars
What platform are you streaming on?
Yeah, i'm on youtube. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, they'll they'll mute the stream. I think later or
I think twitch meets it and then youtube changes the um, who gets the money? Yeah
Yeah, youtube just gives you money
I watch dollar general for upside here
Because we're gonna do another three minutes on the trading side of things
And then we actually have a really interesting space coming about this
We're going to discuss because it is an election year and obviously the market performs really well in election years
We're going to discuss a little bit of the data and how to approach it
Yeah, this can be a good one. Yeah, because because there is uh, there is macro data coming out this week
uh, you know relevant stuff
this month next month, um
It's going to be helpful to try and interpret that for um
For long-term investing for sure. So that sounds pretty um pretty valuable for a lot of people to uh
Yeah, it's going to be invaluable
So i'm just going to get one more
Training tip for the audience because I sometimes I feel like we have people listening and I like to like help
how do you look at things another thing I do is I um
If I want to know how ivy is affecting a different ticker or whatever
Is you can just like watch the um, whatever strike you're looking at
Watch how when the stock goes up if you're you know
Going buying a put how the premium gets sucked out of it
So like for people that don't trade options a lot if you just look at how quickly
Um premium goes out if you wanted to like short it
Let's say or if you wanted to go long how quickly the premium comes in so
Yeah, good stuff kim we'll put that
Mike you got any other updates on your trades if we roll into this uh
Space talking about how election cycles affect the market
Well shout out to everybody that was trading on here absolute gripper off the open
And a lot of those went up 40 50 60 100 percent
Great job to rachel kc matt kim paul mikey everybody that's been on here trading with us this morning
If anybody else has any other trades you want to get in feel free to call them out
If not, I think you're all going to really enjoy this space. We have coming up in a minute see profit take profit
That's all I got to say see profit take profit makes for everyone to be on here listening and contributing
Um, you know you you learn when you teach and uh, yeah, this is always uh, it's not just
Valuable for the people that are listening. It's a bit valuable for the people that are up here
It's uh, it's good to hear perspectives and uh, yeah see profit take profit
We are heading back down on spy cues and um, i'm gonna head out of here
But just uh, yeah, thanks. Thanks for having us wolf
It's been a lot of fun as always and i'll see you all tomorrow morning
Sounds good paul. Thank you
Okay, uh, also i've been looking forward to this space
I think we have a few more people that are going to be hopping in and joining up with us as we get into it
Uh for now, I know that kim's already going to be a part of it evan's going to be on with us
Uh and some others, but I think we have a couple of analysts that are going to be joining up as well
But we can get rolling because we're right here at 11 a.m
Est so i'll update the space i've been looking forward to this one. I think it's a fascinating topic
There's so much data on how these election cycles go and we are going to be doing it together with both you
And our friends over from neos. Uh, yeah mike you got anything else?
Yeah, before I leave watch ccj
Thank you for having me on here. I really appreciate it
and I hope uh, everyone made some money and um
Thank you, sir. Always a good time and looking forward to our one tomorrow morning as well
Yes, sir, uh, so we're gonna be doing this with austin the team over from neos awesome to drop you a co-host right now
If anyone hasn't checked out neos a great post I went up this morning, by the way spy. I
Aum in the recent months. Uh, so that's something to continue to keep an eye on if you haven't checked that
We've done a lot of spaces talking about
Spy I we've done some talking about csh. I wow it's over 631 million aum. Jeez. This thing is just going
Um, definitely recommend people throw that on their watch list if they have not already
One that continues to keep my eyes peeled with that being said. Oh and a nice two percent right a year to date
Um with that being said I see even more of our speakers coming up. So austin, let me turn it over to you
And let's get what up. What up. Happy monday everyone. How's it going?
Uh, welcome to this week's twitter space as always
I want these twitter spaces to act as a place for investors to share some real-time thoughts debate one another
Hopefully not yell at each other though
But more importantly learn from experts like the folks we have behind the neos account right now
Now the theme for this week is something that i've actually been talking a lot lately, which is election years and investing
There's a lot of you know myths misnomers
Uh statistics historical data as it relates to how election years do in the stock market
So we're going to be unpacking all of that now
Um the retail investor sentiment with election years is that they kind of just like do their own thing while other historical data
Suggests a positive year in the markets now, whatever you may think or may not think about them
Let's quickly debunk three investor myths regarding election years according to jp morgan
Starting with number one myth number one stocks don't do well in election year as well
On average stocks have returned seven and a half percent during election years that dates all the way back to 1928
Compared to the eight percent during non-election year
So slightly weaker but still positive for sure
Myth number two is that markets will crash and if so new candidates always win in reality
You know, we've seen boom and bust cycles on both sides of the aisle the economic backdrop
I think tends to matter more than just if it's an election year or not
Now while stocks tend to rally during election aftermaths
It's true that some election years have had bigger swings than others
And then finally myth number three, which I think is probably the most important
Which is the federal reserve doesn't change policy in election years, right?
They don't want to get in the middle of it
Now in reality the fed hasn't exactly shied away from hiking or cutting rates in election years as we look back to the 1950s
2012 was actually a recent example of when the fed decided they didn't want to raise or lower interest rates
But there's been plenty examples going back then as well. Another quick call out. I wanted to share was that
Stocks finished positive in 13 out of the last 15 election years
That's an 87 hit rate with the only two negatives being bush in 2000 and then obama in 2008
So with that information being shared
I want to bring the neos team into the mix here
Specifically one to kind of give us the breakdown on how you guys are looking at election years and then more broadly
How do you feel about the neos offerings fitting inside of a portfolio for someone who might want, you know
Who wants to be a little bit more in the offense this year, uh considering how unpredictable election years might be
Hey austin it's troy here, um glad to be here this week. Thanks for having me on
Um, yeah, so for for us at neos
We have three core etfs right now. We have sp yi which was mentioned earlier, which is our s&p 500 high income fund
Um, and we have a few more coming out soon
Um, but for us looking at what we're doing in the portfolios and how we're managing the products going into an election year
Um, I you know, we will continue to follow our rules based strategy
We're not going to uh change anything because it's an election year
Um, you pointed out some really great stats, uh there. Yes, a lot of people do think we sell off in an election year
Um, maybe we're a little weaker as as you're some of your data suggested
Compared to a normal year in the s&p 500, but I think overall
Um, we probably will get a little more volatility this year
Which for us and what we do with option-based etfs, it can be a good thing
Um, so where we're looking at, you know, the volatility of the s&p 500 we're looking at the vix right now at 13 and a half
Um, it's it's been um as high as you know
2021 in the past few months but as low as 11 or 12
So do we go higher from here and and get a little more volatility as things can be?
You know uncertain with uh, who's going to be the next president come come to bember we have uh,
We have obviously our our current president and who knows who's going to be running against them
So there could be some volatility as that gets sorted out over the next few months outside of there's a number of elections around the world
Uh that people are keeping an eye on for for, you know, different global markets
So it's something to keep an eye on but for us we'll be managing the portfolios the same we'll be
Uh keeping an eye on everything. We normally keep an eye on
Um and just trying to make sure
They're acting accordingly to uh, you know, the parameters that we've kind of set for each fund, you know, sp yi
That's our s&p 500 phone where we're along the s&p 500 stocks
And we're selling um out of the money short calls on the s&p 500 index
To bring in that income on a monthly basis and get us that you know
12 yield that it currently has so we're still going to be following the same rules the same methodology
We're not going to be changing anything up
Uh during an election year
As you might do if you were running a hedge fund or or running some individual money like a lot of people
On here in these spaces who are managing their own money or money for others
Um might do in in a certain election year, but for us managing each fund
We're just following the rules based strategy now regarding, you know
Let's say someone listening right now wants to go on the on the defense
You know, we just hit all-time highs in the stock market. Someone's like this isn't going to last forever
We're going to have x candidates going to win like, you know, they want to be on the defense
Can you kind of walk through how cshi or bndi might be able to help them be a little bit more defensive with their portfolio?
Sure. No, so I think um, you know with with each one of our three core offerings you'll look at sp yi
as kind of having the equity bucket
uh, bndi focuses more on the fixed income and cshi focuses more on your
Ultra short duration, you know cash management
Sort of bucket area and yes if you're wanting to go more defensive and maybe pull away from more of the riskier assets being equities
Um, you could you know push money towards more towards the fixed income side in bndi
Even more low vol and go to the ultra short duration side with uh with cshi
And when you're thinking about something like that
You have to be um thinking about how long do I want to have it there? Is it something that I want to keep there?
Um through the election cycle
And the thing we do with our products is while it might be you know
Call it a an ultra short duration cshis are enhanced income one to three three month t bill etf
What we're doing there is you're long one to three month t bills
And we're selling a deep out of the money spx index put spread
To pride to try to bring in an additional one to one and a half percent over whatever your cash is doing
So this will be an interesting year because not only do we have an election cycle, but we also have potential
Uh fed rate cuts, uh coming coming out over the next few months
So what happens if the fed starts to cut rates and we start to earn less on those t bills you're still guaranteed
From the us government. Um what those t bills are going to mature at which is par
Because you're buying them at a discount to par they mature once or three months later at par
What does it mean right now you could get a you know, three month t bill for over five percent
But if they cut 25 50 75 basis points over a number of uh, you know
and we suddenly go back to where we were say a year ago and
Uh t bills are yielding four and a half or four and a quarter. What does that mean for csh? I yes
um a lower distribution rate, but the idea behind the product is
How do you get an extra 100 to 150 basis points one to one and a half percent over whatever your t bills are doing?
So we're still trying to distribute that that t bill income, but also the um option income
And if you think about it if you're if you're you know, csh right now is yielding just over six percent
And you're suddenly getting four and three quarters or so for your for your t bills. That is kind of your safer
You know defensive as you were saying, uh strategy going into the election
This product could still be yielding well over five percent
Um and closer to six percent. So it's something to keep an eye on
Um, it's a it's a product where we see people large money managers move money in
And then they want to allocate it back to whatever equities or commodities or whatever they're doing
But it is an ultra short duration product and these products have been around for for a long time meaning etfs that that
Are tracking ultra short duration incomes and trying to just give you a distribution on that
Got it. Got it. I appreciate that walkthrough, man
Um stock talk want to bring you into the conversation here as someone who i'm sure trades
Much more than I do and is always trying to look at historical data and make the best decision with their money
How are you looking at optimizing your portfolio or changing your portfolio at all with all this historical data regarding election years in mind?
Uh, i'm not sure that you know as a trader it affects my like week to week or month to month decision making
In any way, but I mean I think
The data is compelling if you look at it historically either way
So I think if you're a if you're somebody who's looking to allocate
You know on a longer term basis
It probably shouldn't affect your decision making the same way it should
Shouldn't if you're allocating on an extremely short term basis
Um, but that doesn't mean that it has no value to look at analytically. I think it does
And if you look at you know, just general performance of a sitting president running
Um, there's pretty overwhelming data, right? Um, I posted about the january trifecta
A couple of weeks ago and talked about why that wasn't important
The last 12 of the last 18 presidential cycles, um presidential election years
Followed the direction of the performance of the indexes in january of that year
So that's pretty compelling
But if you break the data down even more than that there's a lot more that I think is probably worth
Noting so I can go through
A couple more of these things
Let me pull up the january trifecta post first for those that
May not have seen that they want to see it
But if you just google or not google search january trifecta in my handle, you should find it at the top
But when a sitting president is running for reelection the smp 500 averages a gain
Of plus 12.8 percent. So nearly plus 13 percent in all election years since 1949
And generally they use 1949 as a starting point
Um because you know, it's after those anomaly candles we had during the early years of world war two
And they feel like that's a good benchmark to use
But I mean even if you want to go back further
The data is pretty strong in that direction
And so you're averaging a gain of 12.8 in presidential election years
Um 12 of the last 18 cycles in those years have followed the direction of january. So even in the years where we were read
You know it it was it was that way because the market closed red in january or not because but you know
Observationally that was the catalyst and if you look at the rest of the data
It shows you really that the first five months of performance in an election year are in favor of the incumbent president. So
Since 1901 there have been 30 presidential elections
When the party in power retained the white house, which in this case would be biden winning
The dow was up 1.5 on average for the first five months of that year
And in the 13 times the incumbent party was ousted
The dow was down to a 4.5 average loss
You know since 1950 there have been eight times
That the white house retained and brought an average of a 1.9 gain compared to the
1 loss the 10 times the party was ousted
So that's an interesting point as well to look at the performance in the first five months headed into the election
Positively or negatively because that's been a very very consistent
As far as the market bottoming goes there's data on that as well
So a takeover of the white house by the opposing party in the past 80 years
Has resulted in a bottom within two years except for 1994. That's the only exception
Um out of all eight decades of that data, which again is is compelling historically
Um, and when you look at when incumbent parties retained power which was in 64 72 84 88 96
Most of the years that are outlined there
Stocks bottomed within two years as well in that case except for 1984
So basically the only two exceptions are 1984 and 1994 on all of that data
And so yeah, it's paying attention to the performance in the first five months
As an indicator really as a predictor of who's going to win the presidency has actually been a consistent way to predict
The outcome of a presidential election historically speaking. Um, so I think that's pretty interesting
Out of all the red years that we've had and this data goes back to 1896
So it goes back even further than the previous set of data, which was to 1949
There's only been six election year declines greater than five percent
So even when the data showed that hey, look you're going to get a red year based on the presidential
The declines have not been substantial. We haven't seen a stock market crash in any of those years
um, and again, that's 130 plus years of data, so
um, yeah, president bottom line out of all of that which you know, some people are going to follow all those points or not but
Um presidential years tend to be positive for the stock market. Um
Yeah, I don't think people should make a decision going into this year or even at this juncture and say okay
Well, i'm going to buy stocks purely because the data is overwhelmingly positive for presidential election years. I don't think that should be
Anyone's line of thinking either. I think you should mold that with any kind of macro
Or technical based analysis that you have on the equities and make your decision that way but the data is compelling and
Um, you know, there are institutions that are more aggressive in presidential reelection years because of that data
Am I personally more aggressive?
Not really and that's mostly because I think i'm a short-term trader and the outcome of the smp 500 on a one-year basis is
Usually not that relevant to the types of trades I take so personally no but
Yes, I there are institutions that do act that way in light of the data
And I do think the data is historically compelling but at the end of the day historical data is just that it's historical
so do you have any advice then maybe for someone who is trying to be data driven with their portfolio and
Wants to be aggressive this year, but also, you know, it's an election year
They know that it's kind of hard to predict. Do you have any advice for that retail investor?
So I missed the first part you said any advice for retail investor looking to do what oh, no
Sorry, I was just saying do you have any advice you think for like the retail investor listening right now?
Who does want to be data driven with their portfolio? He does have sort of a long-term outlook, but
Obviously knows that election years are very unpredictable
Yeah, I mean for a retail investor that has a very long-term outlook my
Advice would be don't worry about it. I mean the performance of the smp 500 on a one-year basis of
An incumbent president's reelection like even though the data is compelling there
It doesn't mean that if you're a long-term investor who's passively investing in the smp 500 or your
Invest in broad-based indexes. I'd know I don't think that an election year should at all change your decision making in my view
And the same thing for short-term traders. So the short answer would be no, I don't think they should do anything differently
Great answer, man. I appreciate it
Um, you know next I want to flip this over to Dimitri. What's up, man?
geopolitical strategist and founder of pantheon insights
Geopolitics, you know geopolitics right now is pretty pretty intense
One just want to get your quick take on what's going on from the geopolitical view and two, you know
What are your thoughts on the stock market election years?
Are you changing anything in your investment strategies and your portfolio and anything that you're publishing online?
Yeah, hey great. Great to be here. Yes, so I think you know, there's obviously obviously it's a very long
Question in terms of what the answer will ensue but i'll give the short version of it. I think
One thing now is that geopolitics is no longer a concern of emerging markets
But it was now a concern of g7 and I would even say g20 economies meaning
It's not just a risk for developing economies
Which I think is really important shows that on both sides of the developmental spectrum
For both g7 and emerging there is going to be this risk
You're going to have to price in and it is becoming far more frequent as for the presidential election cycle
I i'm not sure yet if i'm going to change anything
You know because with trump it's unclear whether or not we'll be able to see how much legislation
He'll actually be able to pass and that also depends on the upcoming senate election because I think 33 seats out of the 100 are
Going to be up for grabs essentially now. There is this thing called the presidential election theory
I've explored a little bit, but you know, it is pretty interesting. I think it's relevant. So i'll mention it here
performed at best I believe in the
Third year or rather it peaks in the third year and then declines in the fourth and then the cycle
Then uh restarts at the next election. The theory behind it goes is that
They have a tendency to perform better in the latter half as presidents essentially seek to you know
put in fiscal measures or stimulative policies, uh in the in the economy in order to
Increase their chances of reelection. And what's interesting is that this pattern does appear pretty
Consistent across different political administrations whether it's democrats or republicans and there was a really interesting
Research article or report rather put out by charles schwab that showed that from 1933 to 2015
Again, it reinforced the same theory that the third year of presidential terms is usually when we saw the highest gains now
Granted this data is derived from a pretty limited sample, right? It's only been 23 elections since 1933
You know having said that you know, obviously the record there is pretty consistent in terms of how
I'm allocating for the year ahead with china. I have been bearish on chinese equities for quite some time
Um, I think heading into this election. I think we're going to see an accelerated decoupling from china because
Since 2016 onwards we've really seen a secular
Interact with china through both democrats and republicans right trump said in those tariffs biden still hasn't lifted them
Um, and biden actually has added additional tariffs, but with far more surgical precision
I would argue ie building a tall fence around a small garden that in turn has had limited
That's in terms of sort of the broad
Outlook that I have on it
One thing I am bullish on is a theme and I won't get too much into it though
Is uh, i'm bullish on mining stocks because I believe that with the inflation reduction act being pushed forward and the demand
For these critical minerals and the energy transition is going to be pretty
It's going to be pretty bumpy considering a relatively inelastic supply that'll take for instance 10 years for mine to set up operations logistically
Trump is going to look I think likely to roll that back either part of it or some of it
So whether or not that would be bullish for mining companies or bearish is unclear
So that's one area that i'm going to be looking at a little bit more closely. I know in terms of tax cuts
He's looking to possibly renew them or make them permanent because I think they expire at the end of
2025 memory serves so I think that's where we may see a lot of deregulation actually quite quickly particularly in the banking sector too
Because I think there are also some other
regulations that push for
stricter capital and long-term debt financing
And I think if trump can get his people in on time, he may be able to repeal some of those
So could that be potentially bullish for the market? Maybe
um, but it's unclear also how much legislation will be able to pass if
He if the republicans don't even have control of the senate. Um, that's kind of like my broad take on the matter
No, this is great man, this is awesome and I largely agree with your statement regarding china, right? Um, it's it's just
Gosh, I see all these people talking about alibaba. Don't get me wrong, right for a free cash flow perspective
It's certainly trading at a historical discount
But you know the economic data regarding china is is hard to ignore
So, you know back to the same question. I asked stock talk
Do you have any advice for the retail investor right now who's managing their own portfolio who's trying to you know?
Reweight some things use data to to ensure uh, long-term success with investing
Do you have any advice for that retail investor listening right now? Uh as it relates to?
Uh 2024 election year cycles things like that
No, that's a great question. Um
I think one thing to certainly to look out for are macro doomers
Um, you know because well, obviously we've been seeing a lot of that and I know stock talk has a particular gripes with the rubber
Kiyosaki's and the like and rightfully so
Um, but I think for instance, I was reading an article online somebody saying that
Us assets command such a premium is in part due to the political and economic stability
That we have in the us and they're saying that with the recent election term oils we've had
That that premium may wane. I think that's a little bit of an overstatement and I would
caution against putting too much stock into those kinds of claims because it
It's devoid of a lot of of a bigger context like for instance the us
Still having a reserve currency, right?
Like it's not like if we have one bad election cycle or even two or three that suddenly that's going to change everything, right? These
Structural changes take a long long long time and it's not even in the interest of adversaries
For these changes to happen quickly because it would negatively affect them
So for me with that in mind i'm still bullish on us equities
Particularly tech because I think the us leads an innovation in a lot of cutting edge technologies
Particularly ai and the semiconductors that power them while at the same time
We are restricting access of them to china which further helps solidify our uh, our our edge essentially
China also has major limitations in terms of what they can actually do with their ai, right? 56 of global
Websites are in english 1.3 or 1.7 or in chinese, which means that the pool of data that they can draw
From is comparatively smaller and they also have to incorporate it into their domestic political economy
Which means the generative ai capabilities would be quite small with that in mind
Like I said i'm bullish on us equities particularly tech
As for oil and energy. I don't want to say anything on it yet because I don't have my investment thesis on that quite clear
I have a longer term view
But yeah in terms of my you know, sort of
Take on this is i'm just going to be bullish us equities particularly tech bonds
I think might be interesting because if potentially these tax cuts go through or or other stimulative measures
That potentially could reignite inflation fears in conjunction with some of the inflationary trends
We're seeing now vis-a-vis the red seed because we aren't we aren't we aren't seeing the effects of that quite yet
See the prospect of potentially higher inflation obviously bonds would good prices go down and yield to go up which wouldn't be great for markets
That is one policy measure I would look at but again, that's also predicated on his ability to pass those tax cuts
So you have to look at what are the what are the
Policy constraints, right?
So I think keeping an eye on that on those elections and whether or not you'll be able to pass those is
I would say is pretty important
Got it got it man. I appreciate the walk through Dimitri. You got to start coming back to these spaces
I feel like I learned something every time you talk. It's great, man
Um next person I want to bring it to the mix is robert robert is the director of subscriber development at hedge
So he definitely knows what the heck's going on with election years robert. How's it going?
Uh, if you feel free to give a quick intro on yourself, and then i'll jump into the question
Yeah, yeah, awesome. Thanks for having me up. Yeah, dimitri. Uh, that was very insightful. Uh, neos. Yeah, really cool
And I actually looked at your ets before but uh a couple couple triple threat over there
So, uh, well done guys, uh, yeah
So i'm the director of subscriber development if uh, if you're not familiar with hegai we are
a an investment research firm, uh for both institutions and sort of uh individual investors and
You know where our kind of platform kind of
Runs the gamut. Uh, we certainly have a big following on our macro economic and global macro research, uh, but we do a lot of
Individual excuse me individual sector research as well. Uh, so we have uh, you know a lot of
Very talented people in house, um, and i'm, uh, just a humble servant who tries to help all of our clients
um, really try to digest that research and put it into a practical and
Kind of implementations out of the portfolio. So, uh, that's kind of my background
But yeah, so awesome. Love it, man
Yeah, yeah, so, um, not sure you know what kind of I can go a lot of different directions, um with this
So don't know exactly. Yeah, man
Just you know any way you really want to go right?
I think I think the purpose of this space that I really wanted to kind of lean in on right is there's a lot of people
Listening right now who've heard about oh my gosh
Election years they're up they're down. They're unpredictable, right a lot of you know, retail investors
I think listening are kind of scared right maybe not really know what to do
You know does the long-term investing horizon of just like, you know owning stocks for the long term
Is that also apply in election years? I know there's data saying maybe not maybe so
So if you have any perspective or advice for those retail investors listening right now regarding investing or trading or anything
Throughout election years, uh, feel free to jump in and and share it
All right. Yeah, perfect. So, uh, again, just give a little bit for the background. We're very
Quantum mental driven, uh, it's a kind of a fundamental and and quant based
So, you know, we've got a proprietary in-house signal that really helps guide us in terms of making decision
Decisions and and kind of helps us focus on
Areas that are signaling, you know bullish trend and and that's that's really to to to me or to us at hegai
That really drives the boat. So within an election year, uh, you know, I kind of echo
One of the speakers earlier where it really just it depends on one year time horizon. I think it was maybe stock talk
You know, it just depends on your time horizon
but for all the types of purposes it's
You know election year is just like any other year
But you're going to get signals inside of of the day of the market and they're going to help guide you in terms of
You know, where do you want to put capital to work? Um, you know, we're certainly
You know at the moment, you know to totally echo. I think it was neos
They mentioned kind of you know, short-term treasuries and and what that looks like
I mean, that should be a big piece of the overall portfolio at the moment
I mean we we hit all all time closing highs as of friday. Uh, looks like you know, we might hit them again today
So you're in kind of new territory here, uh, you know, depending on whether or not you look at valuations or other metrics
Uh, really just you know, there's you can kind of find a bearish case
But obviously at the moment we're certainly you know bullish trend on the sap 500
As well as nadak and bearish on on the russell 2000 in terms of u.s
Equity, so that's kind of the general setup. Uh, that's where we are today and as of january, you know 22nd
And and and yeah, so that's kind of again
I think if you have a process, I mean from a retail investor standpoint
If you build out a process and you've got risk parameters around that process in terms of your portfolio construction
That's going to be the biggest thing that's going to help you to not
Uh screw up, right? So if you've got kind of um, you know, we look at things from a volatility, uh adjusted basis
So if you are looking at, you know
Pieces of inventory inside your portfolio and you're you know adjusting those sizing
according according to that to that volatility, so
Like very easy one to track would be a 30-day realized vol metric and if something's
Sitting at 15 or 18 like a tlt, you know, that might have a
Seven eight percent, you know waiting in your portfolio depending on your risk parameters and then you know, something's got like a
45 vol vol that's going to be about significantly smaller
So call it, you know, three to four percent or something like that
So that that's I think a big thing and and again within an election year you may get higher bouts of volatility or certainly spouts of
And so if you kind of have your portfolio construction and your rules in place
You'll that'll be kind of some
You'll put some guardrails or some safe rails on it
That makes a lot of sense and you know, just want to quickly bring troy back into the conversation here because um
When thinking about covered call etfs, especially sp. YI
obviously volatility is going to be a little bit, you know lower than just the
Performance of the underlying index. So troy, do you mind kind of walking through why that's the case?
so when we're looking at um
I'd mentioned it earlier, but basically all of all of our option trading is rules based and systematic in nature and we're following
A set set of rules that we've we've built to
Manage the portfolios. So when we're looking at sp. YI
Uh volatility is one of the major factors that goes into
What strikes the models picking on a monthly basis?
That will determine the latter short calls and that determines not only
Uh what strikes there but how far out of the money they are
um and how much um overlay of the notional of the portfolio that
They are and when I mean what I mean by that is
When we're rolling on a monthly basis into the new short calls, uh, which we'll be doing next week at the end of the month
Not only is it it's looking at where volatility is where it's been the rate of change of volatility
And how that affects where the short calls are but how much?
Uh potential notional that it's going to write on the portfolio. So for sp. Y. I for example right now
We're about you know, 89 covered on the notional the portfolio most of the more traditional index-based products are always 100
at the money short call covering the portfolio
sp. Y. I when volatility moves higher or lower can adjust that so it can still bring in the income needed to pay the distribution
um anywhere from you know historically since
We launched a product call it a year and a half ago. It's been anywhere from 75 percent to 90 percent covering
Uh the notional portfolio. So when it comes to volatility, it's a very important factor in in how we're managing it
Um, and like I mentioned earlier, I think we'll probably get a bump in volatility this year
Um doesn't mean that the markets will go down, but there might be periods where we're a little lower a little higher
But with increased volatility comes increased premiums that you're getting from these short calls
So if you think of it if volatility goes up a little
We could bring in more premium and potentially the model might not write on as much as of the portfolio
So it could capture more of the upside
Or um, it might bring in more premium and we'll be able to distribute more premium
That makes total sense and just want to really reiterate this here, right? Jeppy is a covered call
S&P 500 kind of tracking uh ETF, right?
But they are more on the low volatility side, right?
Their holdings are much more low beta in nature, which is why they only did I think it was like nine percent in total return
Last year compared to your eighteen and a half percent. So you guys are definitely more
Well, you guys are certainly, you know, low volatility, but but are the more aggressive side the low volatility considering the income there
Um, so kind of bringing the conversation now back to robert. Oh, yeah, go ahead. Yeah, Troy. Can I ask a question?
So when you're looking at when you enroll in those calls
Are you going out like multiple months and then incorporating the the delta component?
Like are you primarily like what's one of the bigger again without giving away your secret sauce?
Obviously, but what's one of the bigger drivers in terms of your decision making as you're going out
And how do you typically just roll month to month or do you again?
I apologize for not looking deeper into your faction stuff ahead of time, man. This is exactly why we do these twitter spaces
Um, no, that's a great question. It comes up all the time
So we're rolling on a monthly basis
We roll at the end of the month which is a little bit different than what a lot of the other products do
And we're going out, you know call it six to seven weeks. So that you know regular expiry for the index options
So say when we roll next week on the 31st and next wednesday, we roll
We'll be going into the march. I think it's 15th. Is that friday?
third friday expiry of march
And that's how that's our duration, but we will close those calls at the end of february
So it's really like a four-week trade call. It's six or seven week duration
Um, and that's where we get to capture most of that
Premium that we're trying to distribute out to the shareholder
That makes sense. Yes, you go kind of like somewhere between 50 and 60 days basically and then yep got it
Okay, understood exactly cool. And then you'll go various do you layer in various kind of delta strikes basically as well
Exactly. So our model is looking at picking specific
Um, and just think you know
A lot of people ask like how far out of the money is but on average since we've launched
Those short calls are anywhere from one to four percent out of the money when we're rolling them on that roll day
Perfect. I love it, man. Great questions robert great answers. Troy
Uh want to flip the microphone now over to jason. What's up jason?
I'm, not sure we've ever met but i'm really excited you're hanging out with us here on today's twitter space all about
Understanding election cycles and how they might impact the stock market
So with that being said would love to get your perspective on if there's anything you're doing with your portfolio differently how you're uh, maybe
Reweighting some things or maybe you're aggressive. Maybe you're defensive this year
Just want to get the breakdown on how you're investing here in 2024 considering the election cycle. Okay. Thanks for having me
It's great to meet you as well
One it's exciting to just talk about this stuff because I have a kind of an interesting story that happened to me
A couple years ago and one thing if we kind of go through just just look at the charts, you know go back to
2000s probably the only one that basically after the election the market did go down
But there was a lot going on at that time the market the bubble had just popped
But every year after that you see a rally even in 2008. There was a massive rally right after the election
The election years like they're skewed a lot by 2008 2020
So people are just kind of a little bit more on edge on these years
And most of the time when most people are on edge and people are looking back at data and going oh, it's going to be the end
That's the years that you really want to stay invested
Um, you can't really know for sure what's exactly going to happen. There's been like, uh, what was talked about earlier
There's always these guys out there that are talking about crashes
You're always going to deal with people talking about crashes that's going to happen. And honestly, that's that's how they make their money
They don't make their money. They're not traders
Um here you're talking to traders
There you're talking to people who make their money on and nothing but fear
so creating fear means people buy their books buy their products and but they're doing well, so
Basically what happened to me once in 2020 and this was pretty cool. Um, and i've never gotten to share this
On in a big audience. So this will be fun
I was invited to a friend's party
And it was like, you know, it was one of my buddies that I I had just moved to columbus a few years before that
I didn't really know anybody that well
One of my friends was like hey
And I was like, okay, and he was like do not bring your phone
And I was kind of busy and I looked at my girl at the time and she was like you got to go
Because i'm curious what he wants. So I end up going
And you know, I leave my phone at home
Right before the 2020 election they go. Okay, I have pulled all of my money out of the market
Gold i'm i'm just gonna buy it and then we're gonna just move away. We're all gonna just kind of run away
They were talking about like moving to certain areas and all linking together and getting radios to talk and all the guns they had and like
Like and i'm just kind of sitting there as a trader going like this is why and everybody was extremely bearish at that point
I said, this is what most people are feeling because the trump election was very polarizing
People decided that the next one would be and it was people on the right and the left
It was people going if biden gets in he's going to do blank if trump stays in
If biden gets in trump's going to hit the button and it was just like this insanity
So for me, I actually like that. It was our best two months in the market where november 2020 in december 2020 is a fund
And the reason why we did really well is I came home and it got extremely long almost everything across the board
Like i'm not i'm mainly systematic too. So it's not something that I do much
But it's something that you'll see a lot is when there's a lot of fear and everybody's short
You know, this is the time that you're going to have the best squeezes the biggest performance
And once again, it's not something that we know that's going to happen all year long, right?
But if you're in fear of the election what usually happens before the election is the market pulls back just a bit
You have a pullback a correction something
Everybody's in complete fear, but whoever gets in whether it's the incumbent party whether it's uh
The original or somebody else whoever gets in at that point the market just goes up
It's almost like people take a sigh of relief and go oh man. Okay. Now the market can start to go up
And really that's what ends up happening all these years. So I see all these situations, especially right now
uh, there's all the people coming out right now and being like it's the end of it and really you see a lot of uh
Differences around those times. There's you know, a lot of a lot of fundamental things also happen. There's more federal spending
Money starts to go into social security because they're trying to get more votes
Like they start talking about things more money ends up going out there stimulus, whatever
Basically anything to get more votes at that point and this also helps the market drive up a little higher
Makes the dollar a little bit weaker
Yes, people will run to the dollar and things like that when they start to get into fear of the election
But that usually is only a very short lived period of time usually about two to three months on average
And most of the time it's even less than that actually that's
That's going back and taking the 2008 year and the 2020 year and things like but if we go and take those two years
Out and go all the way back to 44
The corrections only last about 24 days
So it's like you know, you really have to think if you're a long-term investor, and I like the way stock talk said it
Which he said if you're a long-term investor
You really don't want to do anything if you're a short-term investor. You don't want to do anything different
And I am kind of a you know
I'm in i'm in the mix of that because I do have a long-term portfolio and then I have a swing trading portfolio
But at the same time there isn't anything i'm going to do differently based on the election
The only thing that might happen is around the election time if everybody gets a little bit too bearish again
I might get very bullish again
And when you just look at it from that fact you can at least go
Do I want to if i'm a long-term investor and let's say i'm have retirement holdings or something
Do I really want to like be out of the market?
For just a little bit a little while because something could possibly happen like uh, you know
I think uh somebody on here shared it the other day. It might have even been stock talk again, but it was more money has been lost in
Trying to find or look for corrections than in the corrections themselves in the market
And that's the absolute truth
You know more people are sitting there trying to get out of the market
Or time things to get back in or something and you're going to lose more money doing that
Especially as a very long-term investor than just kind of holding and riding up a little bit of volatility
Because volatility leads to good returns. You can't have good returns without some volatility sometimes
So you have to be able to handle some volatility. Yes, you don't want 50 drawdowns or anything
But handling a little bit of volatility
And under and not trying to outthink the market and every single
News data point or election year or whatever that's going to be the way you really outperform
The market and start to do really well and have good returns that'll last you for many many years
Shout out to jason for giving us the playbook what a great breakdown man
I I very much appreciate that and I hope a lot of people listening right now
We're listening taking notes where to take some good action on these ideas really really really appreciate that man
Thank you so much for joining us. Thanks. I want to um
Oh, yeah, of course, man. Thank you. I want to flip the microphone now over to kim
Uh, how's it going kim? Hope you're doing well
Absolutely. I know you are very much on the options side of the equation as it relates to
Your portfolio. Are there anything?
You know specific that you might be doing or not doing considering election year is everything, you know, the same status quo
You know, do you have any advice maybe for the retail investors listening right now given the historical data regarding election years?
Yeah, so actually I I don't
Options are just a small portion of my portfolio or what i'm using in my portfolio
So I mainly am long stocks and then I use options like covered calls
Um, or you know if there's bullish flow or bearish flow on a given ticker
Um, then maybe i'll you know use a spread or buy a put or a call
Um to increase alpha in my portfolio, but i'm always long stocks. So
Usually the market does well
Under democrats believe it or not
However, I was just doing a little research. Um, i'm a professor and so I love to pull up peer reviewed research
And I always like to look, um for things against like my belief or my thesis, right?
Because there's so much out there about how markets do perform well
Uh better under democrats, um when they're in control
And so I just found an article from yale university that i'm gonna read
By ray fair if anyone's interested
It's called our stock returns and output growth higher under democrats and it's making the case that
While there is a lot of literature out there that's saying that this is the case when they look at it all together
Um, it shows that it's really insignificant and the market does well under both. So i'm looking forward to kind of reading this
Um contrarian research article that I just saw or that I just pulled up
Um, but in any case, I think it's already been talked about if trump gets in office
Expect a lot of volatility, right? I mean we saw that
You know the market basically went straight up under trump
Uh when he was elected, I think the nq went down like 700 points
I remember because I was watching it closely the nq being the futures and then it bounced right back up
And it was pretty much a straight ride from
Um, so starting with obama, it was pretty much a straight ride from
2016 to 2018 and I don't know if anyone remembers christmas eve
Was trying to raise interest rates and we literally had over that month or so one of the
percentage wise since like 1931 or something like that
You know market bounced when pal paused or maybe he had
Pulled back a little bit. I don't remember
And then the market went up until covet. Well covet
I don't think it's really fair to blame any party for covet and where the market was right because that was kind of a black swan event
That who could have predicted that just like 9 11 or some of these other black swan events. So
However, we're reaching all-time highs and it's biting in right now
So the market though does do well the year before an election doesn't really matter who's in office
So I think you know, what does that mean?
I think it's you know, my way of trading this is just going to keep doing what i'm doing stay long my stocks
i'm not going to be getting
Out of any of my major positions such as costco or google
But it will be to try to trade the volatility
Um, if trump does get in and we have you know, he's not able to push his policies through
However, a caveat caveat on that
Is that the market likes divided government, right? Because then
It can kind of predict or there's uh
There's not as much volatility in where things are going. There's not as much uncertainty. I guess that's a better way to say it
So, um, but you know, if you remember trump did
Tweet at that time which is not on twitter
He would tweet a lot of things and that would create a lot of volatility. I would remember like the market would be
Way up. Let's say my portfolio was up like twenty thousand dollars or something not options
Just my stocks and then all of a sudden you'd be like negative that day, you know within two hours
so just to expect a lot of volatility, um
And geopolitical, I mean there just is a lot of geopolitical risk. I don't think it matters what president is in
Um controlled there was just as much kind of
positioning when trump was in
Um, so we'll see that's how I'm positioning always stay long and try to trade the volatility
I am right there with you kim. What an incredible breakdown and do you already like I guess
Maybe um examples or trades or anything you've done recently in your own portfolio that you'd like to share
Uh, you know, i've just I have a lot of cash on the side unfortunately more than what I would like
I really haven't made big moves right now. I'm you know, long microsoft long google cosco
Uh, i've traded some of the more like volatile like short squeeze trades
Like carvana and that's just because you know, it had a lot of big short float
I will be looking to add to my long-term positions and also
At these all-time highs to put start, you know putting on some short
Calls that are against my stocks
But really i'm just kind of sitting if I see potential in something
Uh, you know like maybe options flow or something like that
Or a big volatility increase ivy increase on a stock position. I own I might do a short call on that
But just trying to stay consistent right now and not make huge moves
I love it. Thanks for the breakdown everyone not everyone but you know
I was listening to bloomberg and cnbc and they were all like, you know mega the meg seven isn't gonna move
You know, they've already had their big move
It's not going to move it the first of the year and then you know, look at it's the thing that's been kept moving up, right?
Not at the beginning but in this last week, so we'll see when earnings come out
I think that's going to be a tell and where interest rates go
Oh 100 percent. I mean tesla and netflix. I'm I got my eye on those
Envies, of course this week for sure
Um shy I want to bring you into the equation here, man. We haven't heard from you yet
I know you are very much an active trader investor. You're always looking for the best
High octane idea if it's powered by a cycler growth trend or free cash flow, whatever
Might be it. Um, so curious. Do you have any?
Ideas or trends or anything you're doing specifically with your portfolio given the fact that it's an election year
Yeah, so uh due to my performance outperforms last year I do think um
Due to the election year like there
Is going to be some volatility
I do think the vix is going to maybe touch 20 before q4 of this year
so as long as like the vix is like
As long as hedging is as cheap as it has been it is right now
Like i'm just going to be hedging my portfolio and high value
Software names are like kind of overextended or even have high multiples compared to their peers
In order to protect my gains from this year and last year. So that's how uh one way i'm playing it knowing that
I'm anticipating the volatility to pick back up. So the contracts would be more expensive to hedge
So rather get ahead of it right now potentially and just do six month outputs
uh, another one is like I do believe that
There will be some kind of intervention if there is an eight to ten percent correction
like there'll be some kind of
not manipulation, but like some kind of involvement from like the feds or the government that will like
Offset some any kind of correction
Obviously if it is a black swan event that there's only so much they can do but if it's just a pure correction due to valuation
I do think that there is a high floor on how much the market could can go down this year, especially with sitting
President going to be for reelection. So that's one way i'm thinking about it also like it's
There's ways to uh trade like last week. I wrote in an article for ben zinga saying
Trump's win in iowa will lead to some momentum new hampshire following week by these three stocks, but and it was
All three stocks on averages of 40 in the past couple days
Uh since the 18th or 19th, it's rumble ticker r u.m. Uh, digital world acquisition group ticker d w a c
And I forgot the other one. I think it's like fun or
Yeah fun wear which is ticker ph un like I mean these are just don't invest in these names
There's purely trading and I do think like as that's a interesting way to benchmark trump's progress on becoming the republican
Candidate is by training these names, especially if he starts picking momentum like the stanzas over the weekend
That's another tailwind that happened for these three stocks
Like if it continues to have momentum, these are going to be very highly volatile stocks, but
An interesting um way to trade an election year
so you can like you have to get really creative in ways of doing it doesn't really affect my long-term growth portfolio because
AI data and e-commerce thematic doesn't really
Um, it doesn't really get affected by an election year. It's just a macro driven
environment that might drive my performance just because of volatility and people want to
Take some profits or figure out who their president is before paying their money back into some of these stocks
However, it is ways of trading it like I just mentioned those three names with trump's momentum and
Also, like ways to play him oil
Um, I don't think oil will go up much more
But that's an interesting way of playing it also china like there's just a lot of creative ways of playing it
Especially on a bumpy year in the stock market with election year. Like they're
Definitely time to get creative as a trader
Very cool, man. Very cool. Um, yeah, actually I just saw uh, I I always look at your tweets, man
I I think you're incredibly smart and you share some incredible knowledge and you do a lot of you know
You do a lot of the heavy lifting. Um as an analyst that retail investors don't want to do sometimes which includes
Figuring out the yields and kind of scatter plots, uh on valuations and things like that
So keep it up, man. Very very very much appreciate it. Um, last question I have for you here real quick
You mentioned the vix is going to go up
Going into the rest of this year
You do a really good job. I think right now of sharing specific names that you buy at lower prices
Um, do you have anything that kind of alludes to well, I guess i'm trying to say is like you you've got these names
Is it the vix you think that's going to help cause that?
I mean kind of walk me through like your rationale and choosing these names and like, you know
Maybe another retail investor listening right now. How would they choose their own names?
How do they figure out the prices that would be good entry points? Just kind of give us the quick and dirty math on that
Yeah, so I mean a ton of research goes behind my name
So like if i'm a perfect example is i'm uh bullish on the ai thematic
I know that hardware is like the first sign of if the ai thematic is real like the rally's actually happening and then
Part two is software names after the hardware names run up and validate the thesis
So I want to get ahead of that part two of this ai rally, which is the software software names
So now that I look at all the b2b software names, who are the best to breed?
Um apps or softwares within that thematic that have the best fundamentals like the top rule 40 score
Which is revenue growth combined of three cash flow margins?
Who on a chart is above their 200 day moving average or technical triggers?
They're like very bullish in the short term medium and long term any kind of volume shelves that it's like
perfect examples crowd strike if they've
They're obviously overextended like they're rallying really hard this year and continuing from last quarter in q4
Like it's continuing this year. It's part of the same camp as amd and invidia
I'm looking at the volume shelf of like or the eight day ema or the 10 day ema 13 day ema of like when or some like
Pullback's gonna inevitably happen for the stock. When's a good time to potentially add some cash to it. So, um
That's kind of how i'm including
Like I pick the names do research and then I add these
Price targets of like where I want to add if there's any kind of pullback is due to the technical charts
So that's kind of how I view it as but primarily like I
Valuation has a minimal impact in my growth portfolio because
I want to own the category leader's best to breed names because if there is any kind of box swan or macro-driven sell-off
These are the names that are most likely that have the v-shape recovery
Like invidia the only breather they've taken was like, I don't know 25 breather after the insane ones had and
Immediate v-shape recovery. It's getting all-time highs like that's kind of
The involvement I wanted my growth portfolio the holdings of just like
Socks that are gonna have v-shape recoveries where like
I don't know some stocks like are highly I want to talk bad about stocks
I'm not gonna call out which ones i'm bearish on but like
I just want to invest the best of breed names that i'm gonna be super excited
If it's gonna go lower due to some kind of sell-off
I want to add to those names and if i'm like lukewarm or like I mean i'm trying to bottom fish or
uh catch a falling knife like sure I might do a value plan or trade but like i'm not gonna be excited if it keeps
Cheap stocks always can get cheaper very quickly
Right there with you man. I appreciate the breakdown
Want to now flip the microphone over to troy for any closing remarks regarding
Spyi bndi csh or anything else that might be coming along the way here very soon
Sure. Thank you a great space today
I think we all have a lot to think about going into the election cycle and what 24 is going to look like
But yeah, I mean if you if anybody wants to check out our etfs, obviously you can go to our website neosfunds.com
Uh to see our three current etfs spyi cshi and bndi
And we do have uh, you know one fund coming out which is going to be the neos
Nasdaq 100 high-income etf very similar to spyi
Um, and we hopefully launch that in the next couple of weeks, but we'll keep everybody informed
Um, but yeah looking forward to getting that fund out and and a few others through q1 and q2
Thank you so much for the walk through there and the sign off
I will now be passing the microphone back over to gov for the final sign off
And i'm sure he's got something else coming up here to announce as well
Yeah, I gotta end the space here
I gotta jump over to a meeting but it was an awesome one
I feel like super super helpful information for those that are like me and
Little data driven statistics pieces along those lines. That's what really stands out to me
So I think this panel was top notch for it always a great job by often and big shout out to that neos group
We talked about it. You know those etfs continuing to
Move, especially on the aum side of things
I think just showing the interest that's been having been had in them and continues to come in if you haven't taken a look
Go ahead and add spyi cshi bndi to that watch list
So you can keep an eye on them
You can check out the neos page for deep dive information to learn more about them
We'll be back on spaces in a couple of hours. We'll see y'all then take care. Thank you. Awesome for hosting