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WOLF MONDAY NIGHT SPACES
Recorded: Nov. 20, 2023 Duration: 2:00:51Space Recording
Full Transcription
I will try.
Mike Saul.
All right.
I see your messages now.
Thank you for the clarification.
Yeah, honestly, dude.
Honestly.
I thought you were asking if you could be honest with your market sentiment, and I was a little confused.
Yeah, how about to be honest with my stock picks from last week?
They were fucking horrible.
And that's an F word I'm dropping for everybody.
How about that for being as honest as possible?
Okay?
Yom Kippur is coming.
Yeah, I got another, almost another full year to wait for, oh my goodness, did they stink up the joint.
But luckily, luckily, especially the people who I claim to be targeting, had amazing weeks.
You know, I don't want to take the thunder away from anybody.
I'm sure you'll be pumping it up pretty good, which they deserve.
Because besides yours truly, it was an awesome week.
Very fair.
We really did kill it out here this week.
We had one of our best weeks on record a few weeks ago.
But this, I think, was ultimately our best week on record.
If you took all the picks across the board, I believe that you had a return of 8%, which was more than double SPY during that time period.
And more than double Qs as well.
So, I mean, that's the goal here, right?
It is to outperform, but to handily outperform.
So, not too shabby when you're seeing 8% in a week across all of our stock picks, including the losers as well.
Not that there were too many of those, thankfully.
All right.
With that being said, we are going to hop right into it.
Andrew, I know that you have to go early.
Mike Saul has to go early.
I think we have a few more people that should be jumping in with us, hopefully.
I think Nick and a couple of others.
But Jaguar said he's coming, so we'll make sure that we get him in here.
But, Andrew, why don't we just kick it off already?
Go for it.
Yeah, what's going on, everyone?
Happy Shorten Holiday Trading Week.
Yeah, in terms of this market, it's been pretty wild.
So, we had essentially a multi-month little correction in the market.
And we ended up getting some front-running of the CPI and PPI reports.
And those reports delivered.
The important thing to remember, and this is something we touched on last week, is the entire
reason why we were in the 2021 and 2022 bear market was because inflation was too high.
We had a bear market when the economy was doing great.
And bond yields were moving higher as a result.
So, given that we ended up getting some pretty light inflation reports last week, that was
really the all-clear signal for the market.
The market had been rallying.
But then off those prints, we ended up getting another leg higher.
So, this has been an absolutely wild couple weeks in the market.
I counted, it took us about eight weeks for the market to fully correct.
And we completely erased that correction in just three trading weeks.
So, very wild stuff.
Now, we're in the holiday season.
And now is when a lot of investors, they're really just getting ready for Thanksgiving,
getting ready for other holidays, taking time off the desk.
So, if you don't get, like, some really negative catalyst for the market, and you make it to
this holiday season, a lot of times the market just drifts sideways to higher into the end
of the year, especially when it's been a good performance year like it has for 2023.
So, that's really a baseline assumption.
Things are likely to just keep on drifting during the holiday season.
But with that said, the headline indices, like the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, not the Russell
2000, but those two big ones, they have really moved to the upside in a major way.
They're getting, once again, pretty extended from the short-term moving averages.
And we have NVIDIA that's reporting earnings tomorrow.
And NVIDIA has absolutely ripped, just like the NASDAQ.
It's put in a pretty fantastic move.
So, to be honest, I do see that as a bit of a risk event.
Perhaps we do get some investors that start to take some profits on those magnificent seven
stocks.
So, that is definitely a little bit of a concern for me.
I actually closed out some technology exposure today.
I had some exposure to the TQQ, the NASDAQ ETF.
Then I also had some exposure to Intel, and I closed that out as well.
And it's not like I'm turning bearish here.
It's really just, hey, the market completely front ran NVIDIA's earnings and everything
ripped to the upside, the software stocks, the whole nine yards.
So, yeah, I do think we have to be cognizant that, hey, NVIDIA, there's a much higher bar
for tomorrow.
So, with that being said, for my picks for this week, I'm going to go to areas that are
not necessarily the semiconductor, is not the software stocks.
I'm going to go to some other areas that I have pinned into the nest.
So, you can see from my first pick for this week, we have the chart of KWEB, which is the
China internet stocks.
And what I'm noticing there, if you look at that chart that I have pinned, the volume that
we're seeing in the KWEB ETF is really picking up over the past couple of sessions.
Definitely looks like some accumulation volume.
And then, not only that, we had some meetings between Xi Jinping and some of the big U.S.
business executives.
So, we're seeing some good action there.
So, I'm going to go along, rather than getting long KWEB for this week, I'm going to go along
CWEB, which is the double leverage China ETF.
And then, for my next pick, I'm going to go with, you can see I have posted here the TLT
chart, which is long-term treasuries.
This one would really benefit, let's say if NVIDIA has a decent earnings report, let's
say they mention, hey, and by the way, we're also seeing signs that the economy is slowing.
We could end up seeing a period of time where bonds actually outperform stocks.
That has not been the case so far this year.
But it does look like the bonds could really be starting to hit escape velocity.
So, for this week, my picks are going to be CWEB, which is the double leverage China ETF.
And then, also, I'm going to go with TMF, which I believe is the triple leveraged long-term
treasury ETF.
Thanks so much.
Okay.
So, CWEB, to the long side, familiar with this one.
What was that second one again?
Yeah.
So, second one, I'm going to go with TMF, which is the leveraged treasury ETF.
Interesting.
Okay.
A couple interesting picks here.
I don't think anyone's picked KWEB or CWEB in a while on our spaces.
But, yeah, the market can start ripping to the upside.
Certainly could see some action in those areas.
CWEB, so KWEB is the triple leverage or is CWEB the triple leveraged of it?
CWEB is the triple leverage.
Okay.
Got it.
I think it's double, but it's the leveraged one.
Okay.
Got it.
Yep.
Looking at it right now.
Yeah, I mean, these have been beaten down, but even when they just make what looks like
small moves, they're still rather large.
Like, in the last month, it's up 26%, even though it doesn't look like much on the chart.
But, yeah, like what you're saying about that melt-up potentially happening here.
And then the second one, the TMF one, you know, more of that 20-year treasury play, like
you were saying, as well.
This one recently looks like it may have found a bottom, kind of down by 387.
It's back up to five.
I mean, that's about a 30% move, maybe over a little bit over 30% in about a month.
So, yeah, a couple that are potentially coming off the bottom.
Definitely see the catalyst for TMF and these others.
Really nice job to yourself, Andrew, last week.
I know that ultimately, I think, you know, you have to dip out a little early today, but
you did take the win in the competition.
So, I did want to give you your flowers in the beginning portion of this year.
Pretty incredible return there between TNA to the long side up 19.73% and then four FOUR up
13.32%.
You nailed both picks.
33% combined return.
16.5% average return between those two.
So, just absolutely awesome picks.
And certainly on the lookout for these this week.
Nice job on another win.
Any other commentary for this one?
No, that's about it.
Looking forward to seeing the video of your earnings.
Thanks so much for having me on.
And if I don't talk to you guys, happy holidays, everyone.
Thank you, Andrew, for getting us started there.
Again, everybody, perk those ears up.
We had some big, big wins last week.
So, excited to see what happens this week.
All right.
Mike, Saul, coming over to you.
Thanks, Gav, for having me go on early.
I definitely do not deserve to cut the line, although my market sentiment has been much
better than the stock picks from last week.
So, today we broke out of the 78.6% retracement of the all-time highs on the S&P down to the
last October lows, whatever it was.
We came up.
We broke above them a couple months ago.
We came back down.
And today we had what's called the second mouse trade, right?
So, the second mouse gets the cheese.
You can picture it in your head if you want, how that works, right?
First mouse gets his neck snap from the trap.
And then the other mouse comes up and eats the cheese without any risk.
So, now we're popping through that 78.6% retracement.
I still think we're going to new all-time highs.
I still think there's a chance we get it to the end of this year.
As Andrew alluded to, this is a holiday shortened week.
It's three and a half days.
And, you know, there's usually, it's usually bullish.
There's usually a dip in the middle of the week.
And then usually the half day after Thanksgiving is bullish.
Usually does not mean always.
So, please, if it doesn't go up, save your roasting for your chestnuts that are coming up in December, right?
Now, after the Thanksgiving holiday, it's usually really, really good for trading.
There's a couple of good weeks, as Andrew also alluded to, that sometimes it can get choppy.
The last, you know, over Christmas and New Year's, that can happen.
Could it happen this year as people want to lock in their gains?
And, I mean, I've been saying this ad nauseum.
I still think that there are a lot of fund managers that are lagging behind here.
And they need to play catch-up, right?
You don't pay fund managers to buy Apple and NVIDIA and all this stuff.
You could ask your mom what to buy if you want those kind of stock picks.
You don't need to pay somebody $2.20 or any kind of management fee, whatever it is, even a small management fee.
Right?
If you're in a growth fund or something, they have to put money to work.
And they have to, you know, if they want to have their jobs and first make their bonus and then have their jobs next year.
So I still think that there could still be money put to work.
Breath is significantly improving, particularly with mid-cap growth stocks.
That's important.
That's putting a floor under things.
I still believe what I've been saying, that a pullback is still viable.
Maybe we'll even get some softness this week, midweek.
Maybe we'll get a little bit of a pullback.
I can guarantee you the market will not go up or down on Thursday.
That's my prediction.
That's the only prediction I'll probably get right this week.
You know, we'll close for Thanksgiving, of course.
And then, you know, we'll see what happens then.
But I'm looking for the next couple of weeks.
I'm still remaining bullish.
As far as my picks go, I'm going to pass this week.
And, you know, so I don't always pass when I do well.
I also pass when I suck.
And it's not because I sucked.
It's because I'm a little bit concerned that we're stretched here.
And while I do think that we have higher prices to be seen, I think there'll be a lot more opportunities,
especially for my style, which is what I call pause-momentum style, right?
I look for momentum, then I look for pause, and then I look for continuation.
With us breaking out today, maybe it just keeps going higher and higher and higher,
and I'll stand on the sideline waving goodbye.
That's fine.
But I think next week will be a better opportunity.
So I'm not going to give any picks for this week.
I'm sure everybody's extremely disappointed after my performance last week anyway.
But I want to wish everybody a happy Thanksgiving.
Hope you spend some time, even if you don't celebrate, with friends and family and people you love
and eat a lot of turkey and pumpkin pie.
And that's it.
Thanks.
And great thanks to you, Wolf.
And, of course, Evan, everybody else, Jordan, all the hosts.
Thanks for having me on, as usual.
And have a great holiday.
And eat some Abu Gobi if you want.
Thank you, Mike.
Saul, no worries.
I'm sure it's still going to be a fun week.
But, yeah, definitely a hard one to predict.
Speaking of the good foods, Jaguar, you want to jump in here with your market sentiments?
Yeah, yeah, I'm here.
Sorry.
Yeah, thanks for having me, Wolf, on the spaces here.
You know what's incredible is how I am number three from the bottom.
I came in third last with a 9% average return between the two picks I had.
For the week.
I mean, if you tell anybody 9% return in one week, that's crushing it by any standards.
And yet I came number three from the bottom.
So that just tells you the kind of the week we had with all majority of them.
I think all of them were bullish ideas.
So, look, if I could just be blunt about this, a lot of my market internal charts, while they
remain extremely strong uptrend, but we have to be mindful that the sentiment is also pretty
high at the moment, where the room or the margin of error is simply not there.
When I look at, for example, the relative strength indicators on SPY or QQQ, it's above 70, right?
That's Sahara Desert hot.
Or, you know, if or how Paris Hilton would say, that's hot.
You know, or if you look at, you know, for example, the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 index that
are now trading above their respective 50-day moving average, I think it closed at about
74% today.
And anything above 80% reading, you know, is considered a pretty, pretty hot number.
And you look at many other market internals, for example, one of the best contrarian signal,
which is NAIM exposure index, which is a weekly survey of thousands of active money managers.
It is, it is, it has bounced back rather sharply to, I think, about 75% will get that updated reading
sometime on Wednesday after market close.
And I expect that could be 80 to 85% reading.
So that's looking pretty hot.
Something as simple as CNN fear and greed index is now also registering, you know, greed in the market.
And I can just talk about many other market internals that I, you know, look at in totality.
And everything seems to be, you know, we have, you know, pretty hot sentiment across the board.
And the thing about the S&P chart in this ascend that we have seen in the past three weeks is that
we have left a lot of gaps on the chart and they're not even getting filled.
Like we don't even get any kind of modest pullback to fill and consolidate, you know, you know,
and then recover and then break out again.
It's just like every day you wake up and we have to be up 100 points on NASDAQ.
And 20, 30 points on the S&P, it's that kind of a market at the moment.
And so this is my only view is that we are, you know, there's simply not enough bullets
that the bears have at the moment to, you know, to fire.
And there's nothing in the geopolitics that seems like a risk.
We are pretty much done with the earnings season.
So we're in this information vacuum at the moment.
And so there's nothing to go off there except retail sector that will continue to pour earnings.
The bond market has seen a bit of a correction in the sense that the yields have come down
and the bonds have rallied.
So, right.
So that's providing the, you know, the back, the fuel to the market.
We're at 4.6%, 4.55%, I think, on the 10-year now, 50 basis points lower than where we were
about three, four weeks ago.
The U.S. dollar is showing continued sign of weakness as well.
So you don't really have a lot of negative of any kind.
And that just continues to fuel the market rally.
But make no mistake, a lot of these market internal charts that I watch closely are overbought
or will be overbought very, very quickly, possibly by the end of this week.
Right.
And so that's where we are right now on the market itself.
I can't really complain because a lot of the bullish ideas continue to work, but I don't
know if it's going to be, I feel like we're in the, let's just put it this way, maybe in
the seventh or eighth inning, if not already in the ninth inning of a potential short-term
correction, you know, before the real Santa Claus rally appears in front of us, which will
be sometime in the middle of December.
So in the next two to three weeks, would not be surprised if we get a little bit of a
pullback and fill some of these gaps that are left in the chart.
Really nice run down there.
Thank you, Jaguar.
And yeah, no, I totally agree with you.
While the returns were fantastic, it's all about the competition, right?
Because they came to play.
So I'm excited to see what you've got this week as well.
So with that being said, let's keep it moving up here over to Michael Knauss.
Yeah.
So it was interesting.
I was listening there when, when Jaguar was saying, right, the RSI crossing above 70.
And I do agree.
We at some point are going to need some sort of short-term alleviation.
But just as the resident nerd, stats nerd, I just ran a backtest.
And what happens if you bought the S&P 500 every time the RSI crossed above 70 and then
held it until it got oversold?
So basically the opposite of what the textbooks teach you.
And you do phenomenally well, right?
With an average winner of 10%, average loser of 5%, and you're right 66% of the time.
So although maybe a short-term correction is in order, I will just say this is something
that stocks getting overbought is a good thing.
So, you know, I'm not saying that that's when you buy them, but that could be when you
start to look to buy them, knowing that there's a high probability that this thing is going
to move.
And while at least on average has a 66% chance of another 10% rip from here, which I think
takes us over Michael Saul's target of an all-time high.
So, and I think I'm just going to agree, right, mostly with Jaguar.
We are a little bit overdone.
We do have to chill out at some point.
We've got some pretty big gaps below.
Things have gotten a little bit heated.
But from a long-term point of view, there's no way I would short this market, right?
I'm going to continue to be kind of aggressively long here.
We, you know, bring out my old man sayings of if you can't survive the bull market, you'll
never survive the bear.
There's a lot of reasons why people can come up with for why fundamentally, you know, that
maybe this is a bear market rally or, you know, things are not over yet or whatever.
But you can't argue with price, right?
As a student of Brian Shannon, I have to do the whole only price pays where we're getting
close to all-time highs, right?
We had two weekly closing all-time highs in XLK, which is our technology fund.
The queues are getting very close.
We had Microsoft with some, I hear some bad news today.
There's no way I'm going to actually follow that news.
But closing strong and breaking out to all-time highs as well.
So, again, at some point, we definitely have to chill out, but I'm not going to be the
one to try to pick that.
I think it's a hard game to play.
If you do it well, that will be fantastic.
You know, you'll probably make a lot of money doing it.
But I just worry about the complexity of that game versus...
So, basically, I'd rather be the guy who buys the top tick before a short-term correction
than someone who shorts a market before it smacks into all-time highs.
So, yeah, so, summarize, I guess, short-term, definitely overbought.
We've got to chill out.
Important to note for the new traders out there, chilling out in a market doesn't necessarily
mean that it pulls back, right?
You can work off overbought conditions in two ways, right?
One is through price, and the other is through time.
It's just the way the kind of math works.
So, could we just chill out?
I completely forgot until you guys mentioned that it's Thanksgiving down there in Yankee land.
So, maybe that's kind of a catalyst to kind of hang out this week.
However, looking at the seasonality behind this time of year, I think it's like the second
most bullish seasonal time of year is the Thanksgiving holiday, and then next is around Christmas.
So, I guess when you guys eat down there, you get very excited to buy stock.
So, I'm going to continue to ride this trend.
I'm going to continue to look for longs, and I'm going to continue to buy breakouts.
But, I do agree that at some point, we need to take some sort of a rest, either through
price or through time.
But, that, in my opinion, should just be an opportunity to buy pullbacks or to buy these
stocks that start to base if we just correct through time, right?
If the market starts to build a base, so will individual names, and that's when the work
begins.
Right now, I'm pretty much as long as I can be.
I'm pretty much out of buying power and a little bit of margin long, and I've been that
way for a while.
So, not much for me to do, but if we do get a little bit of a pullback and I get trailed
stop on positions, what I'm going to be doing is just getting right back to work, finding
new positions to buy.
Sounds good, Michael Nows.
Okay, let's keep it rolling up here over to Nick.
Man, I really don't have much to say.
Michael took basically every word out of my mouth.
We've had an incredible, incredible market over the last three weeks.
And just like Michael said, I'm more expecting kind of sideways action, but it feels like
a market that I want to sit with my winning positions and just raise stops instead of trying
to sell very, very quickly into strength or try to flip and try to short an extended market.
We've seen so many stocks from so many different groups now start to participate in this rally
that even if we go through a pullback, there's so many people that have been sitting on the
sidelines waiting for a pullback to get in that it seems like it would just be one of
those typical 3% corrections or 3%, whatever you want to call it, pullbacks that get bid
So I'm really trying to stay patient on any pullbacks going forward and not try to sell
anything that I think has really high quality and is acting really well.
The stocks that aren't acting well, those are the first to go anyway.
You move your stops up, they get stopped out.
That's the market telling you, okay, these are not the ones to be focusing on.
Over the next week, two weeks maybe, whenever we do get this pullback, that's how I'm planning
on handling it.
But I said last week, I made the mistake in July thinking that the market got too extended
when market breadth was pretty poor and then eventually we saw just a very, very strong
rally.
So learning from my mistakes month over month, year over year, that's the best way to improve
as a trader and it's keeping me out of trouble this time around.
Well put there, Nick.
Best to stay out of trouble, as we know.
Love it.
All right, let's bring it over to Jordan.
Jordan, what are you thinking market sentiment here?
Yeah, I mean, what a week.
What the past few weeks we've had.
My long term is definitely loving it and we're catching some great moves intraday.
Except for today.
I tried to catch a few shorts today and just that didn't work.
Obviously, this market was way too strong.
And we had that 20-year bond auction come out and just sent this market to the moon.
It was ridiculous.
I never thought I'd be saying those words.
The 20-year bond auction would be ripping us this high.
But I was impressed too with SPY today.
We got over this September high, this 453.67.
If you didn't know, look left on your chart.
That's the high from September, which is a pretty big deal to me.
So, I mean, we got over it.
We held over it, you know, even after close.
But I'm definitely watching that as a key level for the next few days.
See how we trade around there.
But similar to Michael and Nick, I'm not going to try and pick tops on this market.
I mean, it's so strong right now.
No matter what might be going on, you know, in the back end of things, I'm going to follow
the price action, right?
So, I'm definitely not trying to pick tops.
I'm going to keep riding this market as long as she wants to go.
I am open to a dip for sure.
But likely we'll be buying that dip.
And I don't know if I'll be doing too much work in my long term as of now.
I mean, I'm just going to let things ride and do what they're doing.
I mean, we're up so much.
We caught that Tesla move.
That's doing good.
I'm looking for more upside there as well.
But yeah, this market's been fun.
I was super surprised today, though.
I mean, what a Monday.
We don't normally see that.
But like lately, the Mondays have kind of been a bit better.
So, super interesting.
We got the 10-year auction, I think, tomorrow.
There's something going on with the 10-year.
I'm not sure if it's a bond auction or what's going on.
But we got some data coming out.
I think we have FOMC minutes as well.
So, just interested to see how that plays into the market and video earnings, all this crazy stuff going on.
So, I'm just watching that.
But definitely feeling bullish until the chart's going to tell me otherwise.
Perfect.
Thank you, Jordan.
And Nate, what are you thinking for this market sentiment-wise?
Yeah, I kind of talked about it this morning a little bit.
The Qs broke their downtrend two weeks ago.
Spy followed it last week.
And, yeah, I'm bullish along with – I got the bullish sentiment going along with the rest of the crew here.
I think semiconductors are, you know, really poised to lead the way.
NVIDIA, obviously, is where everybody's looking this week.
I won't be late for that point.
But I think that regardless – I mean, even if we don't get a huge breakout with NVIDIA, there's a lot of stocks that are really poised to break out.
And all we need is a little bit of an additional momentum push, like everything is right there.
So, yeah, I'm overall bullish for the most part.
Even financials are looking good.
I was kind of negative in that sector for a minute.
Still negative on some names there.
But seeing that sector turn around along with the semiconductors working – and actually, I didn't check on energy.
I was a little bit late getting here today.
Apologies.
But energy was a sector I was hoping would hold up.
Looks like it didn't do a ton today.
But, you know, if we can find the bottom here, $82.50 for XLE, if that was the bottom, then we can start to push back up towards the mid-80s, back towards 90.
I like the overall sector to, you know, get a little bit hot along with everything else.
So we had a lot of selling in energy recently.
So I think prices have come down.
That's where you can get some nice trades put in.
So watching that as well.
Overall, looking for upside trades for the most part.
But I think I might have a short this week as well.
Sounds good.
Thank you, Nate.
And Evan, do you want to throw anything in on the market sentiment side of things?
Testing, testing.
No worries.
Nope.
I don't really have anything.
Market feels bullish right now.
I'm still not as bullish as the market, but I don't think that's going to matter for the next couple weeks, couple months.
Direction is up.
I think we still see lower at some point.
But, yeah, people are bullish.
You think we see new all-time lows?
All-time lows?
What does that even mean?
I know.
You're just memeing me from earlier?
Just a little bit.
We'll see.
My portfolio has been outperforming Wolfe on the week, month, three-month, year-to-date, and one-year chart.
Notice how you didn't say the one day there.
Maybe not all time.
Maybe not all time frames.
I actually didn't even look.
Let's double check.
Keep it on you for a second here.
How are you feeling about sentiment, Wolfe?
I am feeling good.
Yes.
Listen, 52-week times.
Oh, yeah.
You're feeling good.
I'm happy with him.
I just need Celsius to turn its act around a little bit and participate in the market rally.
And then we'll be good to go.
That is mainly what I'm watching.
And you know what?
Today was a great start towards that as it put in about a 6.5% day, I believe.
And it's turning up its nose quite nicely.
All right.
Let's hop right into the stock picking portion.
I'm super excited to get into this because of the results that we were able to see last week.
Reminder, last week was, I do believe, our best week on record.
Three losing picks versus 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13.
13 winners to three losers.
Not too shabby.
So pretty happy with that.
That is a whatever.
I don't know.
I think that's an 81.25% winning rate, I believe.
So not too shabby.
And the average win, again, across all of it was 8.1%, which is just freaking nuts.
Even on a week where Spy's up, you know, 3.5%, that's still really good.
All right.
With that being said, let's hop into it.
We already got a couple of picks from Andrew, who was our winner from last week.
We did get no picks from Mike Saul.
Let's go to second place.
And a very, very close second was, and that would be you, Mr. Nick Drendel.
All right.
The first pick I'm going to go with is SMCI.
This was a big winner for me earlier on in the year, even though I mishandled it, did
not get as much gain from it than I should have.
But really, one of the first stocks to kind of top during the correction that we just went
through back in, what was it, August, gap down on earnings based out for months and months
now.
And what I really like about this chart is last week on the 13th, it looked like a stock
not participating in this rally.
It got rejected at the 50-day moving average, closed back below the 10 and the 20.
And then the next day, we get a gap up opening right at the opening price of the previous
day before a big sell-off, right at the 50 and the 20-day exponential moving average.
And then it just rallied, I want to say it was a 14% move up into a downtrend line, had
a couple of days consolidating.
And then today, slight gap up.
We opened right on the low, closed right near the high of the day, up 5.5%.
This isn't where I would be buying it initially.
But for the contest, if momentum's on the side, we've had a nice long time to base out
here, hopefully with NVIDIA earnings, hopefully they come in positive and we get a positive
reaction to that.
But this is one that has been kind of fooling a lot of people through the last couple months.
And hopefully that last kind of gap up through the 50-day fooled the last group.
And now everyone has to rush to buy it back.
So that's going to be SMCI.
The next one is going to be Shark Ninja.
It's an IPO, S-N.
And kind of a shout out to my wife, because every time she mentions a stock or mentions
a company that she likes, and the stock is also setting up well, it's done extremely,
extremely well for me this year.
Abercrombie & Fitch was one of the ones that came across my radar in May when it was a $30
stock, and I asked her about it.
She said there was some turnaround going on, and that has doubled since Elf Beauty, when
it was at like $30, she mentioned it.
So I just noticed today that we got our third Shark Ninja product.
So now my ears have kind of perked up on that.
And looking at the chart, just a really nice kind of VCP pattern where volatility is contracting
each time we pull back in.
Both times we've pulled into the 50-day, we've closed below it once before, kind of
gapping right back up and then railing.
Right now we have the 10, the 20, and the 50 all below price, all curling up, and we're
right near not all-time highs because of the first day, the first week, but really kind
of where the previous resistance has been, right around $46, $50, $47.
So if we continue to see market strength, which I'm betting on until it proves otherwise, this
is one where I can kind of juice my returns a little bit, no pun intended, because we have
a blunder from them.
But one that if everything in the market's working, IPOs start working.
I saw ARM, another IPO, just get over resistance today.
So hopefully that IPO theme is going to rotate into SharkNinja tomorrow.
Okay, so we have SMCI, which is a classic on these spaces.
This one's a big runner when it likes to run, has certainly put in some moves before.
I haven't taken a look at the chart in a little bit, but judging by the fact that NVIDIA hit
all-time highs today, I can't imagine that this one is too far behind.
Looks like it put in about a 5.5% day itself.
And yeah, if you're bullish on NVIDIA, this is certainly one to keep on the radar as well,
because they do like to move decently in tandem.
It's up 35% in the last three weeks alone.
I like this pick.
Certainly going to keep my eyes on SMCI.
Good to have it back on the watch list.
I have not looked at SharkNinja.
This one, like you mentioned, only IPO'd back in August, but looks like it's set.
All-time highs right here today.
I think it hit all-time highs.
Well, I guess technically their IPO day, they had a little bit of a spike.
But not too far off from there, right?
About seven, eight bucks to go to all-time highs, but really constructive looking chart.
So nice job finding this one.
And they already got those earnings in as well.
Looks like they're putting in positive EPS off the bat, which is nice.
So yeah, maybe a little bit of runway here if it can break through
and come up towards those fresh highs.
Nice stuff, Nick.
I know you were so close to taking it.
Hopefully you have better luck this week.
Any other commentary you want to throw in?
I mean, if we can just continue on the performance that this entire group is going on,
I'll take second place anytime.
Yeah.
No, absolutely.
This was not a bad week to get second, for sure.
Okay.
Very nice.
Very nice.
All right.
Let's go over to, sorry, Michael Knauss.
Sure thing.
Yeah, I'll second that for Nick.
If we keep having this performance, we should open up a hedge fund at this point.
Someone who spent a lot of time in the hedge fund, working with hedge fund managers,
the multi-manager funds always perform the best.
Just saying.
Um, so my caveats, as always, I am an algo trader.
So I trade basically every, most every trade I come, I take comes from some sort of back
tested algorithm that I've made.
Uh, so at least I know the performance of just following the algorithm on its own will
outperform the overall market.
But, and then from there, so I take the output of that and I scan through it and I just kind
of eyeball it based off of, uh, being a CMT and, and studying charts for over 10 years.
So I don't have fundamental stories around these, but just know that they all come from
things that if I were just to follow it blindly, uh, at least in back test over, you know, since
1980, uh, would have outperformed the market.
So, um, and also they're in the little, uh, purple bubble, the chat or, or comments down
below or whatever we call it.
Um, the first one is going to second what, uh, Andrew was saying about how strong China's
been looking recently.
And, and how K-Web has been really, really strong.
And that actually came through looking at my relative strength algos, seeing a handful
of different Chinese names in it.
I think EDU was in it.
Um, uh, I can't remember, but a handful of different names.
I settled on TAL, uh, which I believe is an online education company out of China.
Uh, it's just a really, really nice looking chart.
It definitely has some, um, struggles, I guess, around the $10 a share area.
And it's, it's hit that a few times and has, uh, has pulled back each time it's hit that
level.
So if we can get some sort of sustained move over $10 a share on this one, then I think
things could look really, really good.
Now, the caveat you always have to give with Chinese names is it's China.
Uh, right now, everything is looking good, but you, you know, there's nothing stopping
overnight.
You know, some leaders of countries having a little pissing match and then all of a sudden
they're tanking their stocks like they did with, with DD or something.
But, uh, TAL looks very nice.
Had a gap up today.
Not the best looking candle today.
But if it can regain strength and hold over $10 a share, I think this one looks great.
Uh, next one here.
I've traded this, I think, a couple times.
I think I actually won once, at least with this name in this contest and certainly has
been a great stock for me.
And that's Caba, C-A-B-A.
Uh, this one's just been insanely strong.
If you take a look at the monthly chart or a long-term chart, uh, broken out over a key
level, uh, a couple months ago.
I think that was around 10 bucks, give or take, um, broke out of that level.
It's been holding strong, moved up a little bit on earnings recently, and has been consolidating
nice and tight here.
So it was a really, really tight base around, you know, call it $16 to $18 a share.
One thing I love about this name, uh, knowing nothing about it, but it has a 20% short float.
And, you know, I'll say this to the cows come home.
It doesn't matter about the short float.
It matters if those shorts are worried, right?
So AMC is a perfect example.
I know I always get yelled at by some ape when I say this, but they've been printing shares
into oblivion, right?
They 10 X their float at this point, um, and are just sitting at all time lows.
That's not a stock that even if it was 50% shorted, I would care about what you want is
the combination of a high short float and knowledge that those shorts are actually losing
money.
So when you look at something like a Caba, uh, and it's moved from, I believe about, I think
it was in the pennies.
I think it was under a dollar to now $18 a share in about a year and a half.
You better believe that everybody that's short at this stock is starting to get really nervous.
So if we can get through this really tight base that we've probably been in for almost
two weeks now, uh, call it 18, maybe $19 a share.
That's really where I'd like to get involved.
15 has got to be an absolute worst case stop.
Um, but for me, I'm going to look for some momentum over that area.
So that is Caba, C-A-B-A, and Tal, T-A-L.
T-A-L, right?
That was the first one, Tal?
Yeah.
Okay.
That one definitely less familiar with because we've certainly had Caba on here.
And I do think that you have won from it in the past.
It's had some of the largest moves that I've seen in the market.
For those that don't remember, this stock was trading at $0.60 in September of 2022.
It currently trades at $18.
It's quite the move.
Uh, in regards to the other one, T-A-L, this is one that I've not really looked at before.
Tall Education Group.
Um, yeah, I don't know too much about this one.
This is interesting.
Okay, after-school education, uh, I, I, I can kind of see, I guess, why it came up on your radar, breaking through potentially 52-week highs here.
But I don't know too much on it, so I will leave it to the Algo.
Some good stuff with Caba and Tal.
Any other commentary for yourself, Michael Knauss?
No, just, um, you know, don't let, uh, the fact that we are probably due for a pullback, um, you know, make you lazy or scare you.
Right?
Pullbacks in bull markets, which we're most certainly in, uh, is when it's time to get to work, right?
So you guys, you should be looking and hoping for a pullback or some sort of rest in the market.
Because that's when it's really time to sit down and, and put through the work and, and do the scanning and try to figure out what to trade next.
Because really, at this point, I, I would be absolutely flabbergasted if we don't take a shot at all-time highs.
So if we are a little bit too hot and we pull back here, uh, just make sure you, you write some time off when you guys are all hopped up on tryptophan to, to go through some charts to make sure you have a list for that next move higher.
Whether we hold those all-time highs, who knows?
But, um, you'd, you'd think that there would at least be a pump to get us up there.
Agreed.
All right.
We are making some good pace here.
Jordan, congrats.
You actually took third place this past week.
Let's go.
Almost first.
Pretty close.
Uh, you had long Tesla by 1.5 and long Tesla double-everaged.
And those returned 18.13% and 13.79%.
A cumulative return of 31.92%.
Average return there of 15.96%.
A really, really nice week for you.
What are you thinking for this week?
Well, I'm thinking, I heard nobody wants to take the shot on NVIDIA, huh?
I didn't hear anybody pick that.
So, I think I'm going to take the shot for earnings long, but I'm going to do NVDU, um, to get a little bit of extra leverage there.
So, I'm going to go long that, just purely off earnings.
I'm thinking we pump it.
It very well is just a coin flip completely, but I'm just trying to get that for the contest.
And then, I think I'm going to stick with my Tesla again, with TSLT, um, for long once again.
We did get a bit of a pullback, uh, since that recent move up.
But we're holding the 200 EMA on the daily and, uh, my 9 and 21.
We're holding that area pretty well.
So, I want to be long this through the contest this week as well.
But, um, I wouldn't want to be long this if you're trying to trade this week under 226.50.
That's kind of my spot on the daily.
If we do lose that, I'm thinking we probably come down a little bit and, uh, really start to fill, or really fill that gap.
We kind of, we almost filled it, but we didn't quite get all the way.
So, I'm thinking it really could go either way here on Tesla as well.
But, uh, I'm liking the weekly a lot better than the daily.
So, I'm thinking, thinking upside for that this week.
We'll see.
But, uh, yeah.
So, NVDU and then TSLT.
All right.
Taking tech to the long side.
NVDU, TSLT.
Those are both double leverage, right?
Uh, I believe they're both, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Uh, Tesla is double, or triple, right?
And then, uh, NVDU is 1.5.
That's the best I could find, so.
Yeah, that sounds about right.
There is NVD, uh, X.
Is that better?
That's 2X.
Is that 2X?
Mm-hmm.
Hmm.
I'll do that if you let me switch it, Wolf.
If not, it's fine, no worries.
So, NVDU to NVDX?
Yeah, I didn't see that.
It has a little more on it.
What's NVDU?
NVDU is 1.5 times.
It's the direction.
What's the difference between NVDU and NVDL?
Are they just...
Because NVDL is 1.5.
NVDU is 1.5.
They look exactly the same, just different price.
Okay.
Different company that made it.
NVDX is double, yeah.
Yeah, yeah, that's the, that's the same, that's like the T-Rex one, same as Tesla.
And NVD, NVDX up 45% this month.
Ridiculous.
Yeah, thanks, Evan.
I'll go for that.
Damn.
NVDX, I mean, they still, I'm surprised there's not more money in this one just yet, just based
on the, I mean, there's 4.5 million AUM.
I mean, it's an ETF, so it's not like...
Well, to be fair, I don't think a lot of people really know about it, to be honest.
I mean, I don't hear a lot of talk about these kind of X tickers.
I know we've been talking about TSLT, but the T-Rex tickers, I haven't really seen much.
It's almost like they should be doing a marketing campaign on Spaces.
You know who's behind that, right?
Yes, I know who's behind it, Evan.
Yeah, send them a DM.
I know, I know.
Well, I've sent them more than a DM.
I'll tell you that.
Sent them a goddamn contract.
Let's get this done.
All right, good stuff, Jordan.
Okay, we are going to come over to Mr. Jaguar.
Jaguar, excited to hear the picks for this week.
Draftki's still cruising.
Test and test in with the Jag.
If you guys hear explosions going off on my end, it's apparently a national holiday today
in Puerto Rico, and people have just been shooting fireworks off all around us.
I was going to say, right when you unmuted, I just heard it.
I was like, hey, what's going on?
Yeah.
Will, can you hear me?
Yeah, I got you, Jag.
I don't think you can hear me.
I can hear him.
He can hear you.
Jag, he can hear you.
Yeah.
All right, well, we'll give him a sec to get back.
But yeah, today's apparently a national holiday in Puerto Rico,
and then apparently they also celebrate Thanksgiving, so not really sure.
I think they just look for excuses to party out here.
I'm not going to lie.
They shoot off fireworks all the freaking time, like daily.
There's just fireworks going off.
No reason.
They get off work, they shoot fireworks.
That's how it goes.
That seems to be how it goes.
All right, Jaguar, I got you up here.
All right, let's do this.
Okay.
Okay, you know, as I mentioned in my opening comments,
the most difficult part is trying to find setups that at a time
when everybody seems like is chasing, chasing into overbought market internals
that are starting to appear, you know, everywhere.
And so, and that's a game that I typically try to avoid.
You know, where the chase is on into overbought RSIs
and all of that stuff that we talked about before.
And so I have to take a different angle here,
which is I want to be involved on the bullish side of things,
but I don't want to be in the names and the spots in the market
that just chart-wise, just looking at them, just look overbought.
You know, and so I have to go to the spots that are setting up for it,
you know, coil charts that look, that could start to participate
with the broadening of the strength that's in display in front of us.
And so, having said that, we have one and only one big catalyst.
And it may not even be a catalyst, who knows?
But the big catalyst that we have, it's coming up on Sunday,
and that is the OPEC Plus meeting.
And there was an article out on Friday in Bloomberg
in which, while the consensus is currently modeling,
no further cuts in oil production by OPEC Plus members,
but there is this growing sense, the article discussed in Bloomberg,
there is this growing sense of geopolitical uneasiness against Israel
as a way for the Arabian countries to sort of weaponize oil
as a way to, you know, to reflect upon it.
Meaning, this article from Bloomberg was discussing
that there could still be a surprise cut that we may see on Sunday.
And if that happens, we have seen the entire sector pull back
in the last several weeks.
We have seen the crude oil come in lower from hitting almost, what, 84?
You know, actually more than that, almost $90 per barrel, you know,
at the peak a couple months ago or a month ago,
all the way down to 75, 76, 73 actually rather,
and then it stabilized and started to bounce back a little bit.
And meanwhile, you have seen a lot of these energy stocks nowhere near,
you know, in terms of overbought conditions reflecting any of that
as you can see in the rest of the market.
And so there is a setup over here that any news,
even if a small positive news, could be taken rather much stronger news
for the equity bulls in the energy space.
And then we could see basically the sector just wake up
and start to catch up with the rest of the market,
which will go also along with the logic, you know,
that rotational market, bull market rather, you know,
you will see the money will continue to rotate from one spot to another.
So I think we could see some green shoots in the energy space.
Now, considering that this is a contest, week-to-week contest,
I have, you know, I have to often look for high beta names
that in such a scenario that can participate and provide the beta
and find the coil charts with good fundamental, you know, ways of us,
how we look at thing in Jaguar, you know,
basically good fundamental narrative that fit along with it.
And one of those stocks is going to be a very hot trending stock.
in the space recently.
And so I'm going to go with Chenier Energy, symbol LNG.
That will be my first pick, which is a pick on natural gas space.
And this stock, if you look at this from a, you know,
from a perspective of the last several months,
it has been, it broke out from the key resistance,
which was $165 per share.
But it has spent in the last month and a half, roughly,
consolidating in a tight range between $165 and $175 per share.
I think there's a setup over here with winter coming up
and Chenier being the biggest beneficiary of LNG sales
that will only accelerate during winter months to Europe.
And then, you know, potential setup for energy sector to start to break out.
LNG could be a play for that.
We could see this thing move above $175 if the setup works this week.
So that is the first setup that I like in the energy sector.
And the second setup I like is going to be the one that has not posted earnings yet.
But it's a play on what's happening in Panama Canal,
which is starting to show an extreme amount of drought,
which is impacting shipment lines.
And those shipment lines are starting to cause the price to go sharply higher for freight
and for oil shipments and all that.
And that is, the second pick is Golar LNG, symbol G-L-N-G,
which is expected to report earnings tomorrow.
Well, actually, now this is interesting.
I did not realize this is tomorrow before market opens.
And I know that for the contest, you pick the names that at the starting price, right?
At the opening price on Tuesday.
And so this may move actually in pre-market tomorrow.
G-L-N-G is the symbol.
But we'll see.
I'm still going to go with it.
There is a, there's a, there's, I'll tell you this.
Let's pull up the chart of another, another company that,
that runs these large fleets, big vessels.
And that symbol is called LPG.
Look at how powerful momentum that chart is.
LPG.
It's just running massively.
It's up like 50% in the past three or four weeks.
Because I think Golar LNG, G-L-N-G, using the same fundamental dynamics that are in play,
could start to play a catch-up.
And that could begin starting from tomorrow, when this company reports earnings, before market opens.
So we'll see what the opening price is tomorrow morning.
But if it's a good quarter, I could see this thing gap and go in the morning.
So, and this is all based on pricing trends that I'm seeing from Panama and many other cities.
So my first pick is the large cap, well-established name, which is LNG, Cheniere.
And the second one is G-L-N-G.
So LNG and G-L-N-G.
Two long ideas, both in the energy space.
I thought that was kind of funny that the tickers were pretty much the same with just one added letter.
I am personally not super familiar with either one of them, which is why it was great that you laid out the full case.
LNG looks fantastic as a chart up here.
This looks kind of similar to my favorite play right now, which is FRO in this space.
And this one just really cruised.
I mean, goddamn, this went from $44 and is trading at $173 now.
And it's only really taken this pause recently.
So if this can get that next push, start making the next move, that'd be great.
And then G-L-N-G, not quite the same looking.
It did have that push.
It's just been kind of traversing for longer.
But I hear what you're saying with more of a catalyst type plan.
It's just been sitting on its 200 day.
So two really interesting ones here from Jaguar, as always.
I really like the LNG play.
That's going on my list.
Absolutely.
Okay.
By the way, all picks so far have been long.
Pretty crazy.
We've got one more stock picker.
And then we're going to roll into our space with Kalshi, which we're excited for.
Tarek, I see you in the audience.
If you want to go ahead and request up on stage.
We've got a lot to discuss tonight.
Nate, you want to get your picks in here?
I know they weren't taken yet.
Yeah, definitely appreciate it.
So I'll just go, I'll keep it short and sweet so we can roll into the next hour.
I'm with Jag with respect to the energy space.
And I've been talking about Viber Energy.
So V-N-O-M.
I'm going to go ahead and roll with Viper this week, see what happens in that space.
And next name I like, actually, I've been debating.
I'm going to go ahead and go with Workday.
We've got earnings coming up in a week.
And I like the setup.
So W-D-A-Y.
See what happens with Workday.
And, yeah, long both positions.
Looking for more moves to the upside on the short week.
What was the Workday ticker again?
W-D-A-Y.
W-D-A-Y.
Okay.
Perfect.
Perfect.
So we did not have a single short pick tonight.
Will that come back and bite us?
That is a good question.
With that being said, we killed it last week.
And we only had three short picks last week.
And one of them was an inverse of a short.
And the other two, the only ones that went short last week didn't win.
Didn't do good.
So I'm hoping that, you know what, the longs can keep suit.
And we went long last week.
And we hope they can continue it.
Evan, do you got a comment here before we roll into the call she won?
Quickly.
I'm going to steal a win.
I'll go SQQQ.
And I'm going to find a 2X NVIDIA short ETF.
Give me a second.
All right.
Take your second.
It's actually good for me because I am getting.
Evan is going short NVIDIA?
Double short NVIDIA, yeah.
Wow.
No other reason than I want to win.
Can I ask a quick question?
Michael Noss, I know you run the algos.
Is NGS, that's N as in Nancy, George, S, is that on your algos?
That chart looks absolutely fantastic.
Yes, that chart does look.
I'll take a look for that.
But I did, I looked at it just when you mentioned that.
And FRO, which Wolf was just talking about, is ranked number one.
I think I just passed it up because of the, yeah, I passed it up because it wasn't volatile
enough to win the contest.
But yeah, it's ranked number one.
I thought about bringing NGS, but I'll take a pass on that.
Go ahead.
Sorry.
All right.
Okay.
I think we're ready to get going.
Evan, do you want me to mark those down as official competition picks?
Okay.
Yeah.
All right.
I texted the other one, NVDQ.
I don't believe this, but I want to win.
And I'm going to brag in all your faces when I do.
What's the other one besides NVDQ?
SQQQ.
All right.
And these are long, both of these.
Okay.
Yes.
Yes.
All right.
It's going to be embarrassing when I beat everyone.
Fantastic.
All right.
Just for everyone to understand.
So I do have all these written down.
I am going to post them.
However, I just made a post.
So I'm going to give it a little bit of time.
But don't worry if you want all the picks from tonight.
They are going to go out and I'm going to tag all the speakers and I'll get it all out
there looking nice for y'all.
So don't even trip.
With that being said, though, we do have a pretty exciting space since there's a ton
of stuff going on this week with NVIDIA earnings.
There's this open AI stuff.
So we're going to talk about how you can actually bet on these major events that are happening
this week.
Welcome in to the party, Tarek.
Good to have you up here with us.
Tarek, for those that aren't familiar, built the amazing platform that is Call Street.
Call Street allows people to actually directly trade on specific events.
Tonight, we have several events we want to discuss with you.
So stick around.
There's some fun stuff.
Inflation, the Fed, jobs, employment, commercial real estate, and of course, some of this Sam
Altman and open AI fiasco.
I'm curious, Tarek, let's get right into it.
Do you want to give a high level for those that aren't familiar of what you guys are doing?
And by the way, while you're doing that, for those that want to check out, this is my
favorite thing because this is just straight up, where is the money going, right?
Like, what are people betting on?
What are they trying to make money on?
What do they think is going to happen?
I know Jaguar's been really good with these and made some money on them, so excited to
have him here.
But you guys have had these up going left and right.
There's hundreds of millions of dollars going in.
For people that want to see it, the app is free.
I just posted it, and it's in the top of the space right now.
So go ahead and grab the app.
They're actually giving you a free $30 once you put $30 in as well.
Don't have to spend it.
Just $30 match right off the bat.
So free $30 plus see where this big money is going.
It's great to scroll through, even if you're not the type of person who's going to bet.
And if you are, even better.
So hopefully that gives a high-level overview.
Tarek, let me turn it to you if there's anything I missed there.
And then let's start off with some of this OpenAI stuff and some of these other exciting
things.
Yeah, absolutely.
Wolf, thanks.
Thanks for having me.
Really excited to be here.
Maybe I'll give another overview real quick about Couch to the Platform.
But it's really, really simple.
We built a financial exchange, things like the New York Stock Exchange, but instead of
trading on stocks or bonds or other things like that, you're trading on things that you
relate to and you have knowledge about.
So it could be politics.
It could be gas prices.
It could be weather and climate.
It could be OpenAI and what's going on with the current fiasco.
And any other headlines are up on the news.
So if you read the news and you're pretty well-versed in anything you're doing, which I'm assuming
you do so if you trade anything somewhat actively, Couch is a pretty good place to be.
Yeah, the app is accessible from Wolf's link.
And I think it would be good if you get the app, you'll be able to follow some of the stuff
we're talking about.
So, well, it seems like you want to get started with the OpenAI situation.
So, you know, obviously, the audience is assuming, yeah.
Just as you get started with it, the reason I want to start with it is we've been talking
about this all day and everyone's been going, oh, if OpenAI was a publicly traded company,
I would have grabbed the puts.
It'd be down 50%.
I can make all this money.
But really, all we have is Microsoft, right?
And Microsoft, it's not going to move that much just off OpenAI.
Yeah, it'll move a percent or two and they're in a win-win situation.
But like, how do people really make money off this?
That was kind of my idea and mine went right to you guys.
Yeah, I mean, totally.
You know, this is exactly what I would pitch here.
I mean, I think here's the thing.
I think a lot of the opinions that people have, even when it comes to Microsoft stock,
but really, I mean, about OpenAI and whether it's going to overperform, underperform, etc.,
are really driven by events and headlines.
People are asking questions like, you know, is OpenAI for-profit arm going to end?
Is OpenAI's CEO, the guy I met that they currently just put in,
are they going to replace him or not?
Are we going to have other board members leaving?
And what's going to happen with, you know, Chad GPT-5?
So all these markets, all the things that I just mentioned and more are actually currently listed on CalShift.
You can trade on those things directly, you know, and trade them like you would trade a stock,
but trade on the conviction that you have very directly.
So I'll take an example right now.
But, you know, if you believe that OpenAI is going to stop their for-profit arm by the end of the year,
which I think is a reasonable lack of a hundred people have been talking about it,
obviously that will have a very drastic impact on OpenAI's quote-unquote stock.
You know, it's a private company.
And right now you can basically buy that at 20 cents to the dollar.
So you can get a 5x return on your capital if you end up being in the money,
if you end up being right that they end up shutting down their for-profit arm.
Yeah. So, you know, well, let me know if it's helpful to go through some of the current
things that our markets are forecasting and maybe we can have a discussion around that.
Yeah, that's exactly what I wanted to go over.
So I know there were a few key markets here that we wanted to talk about.
So walk me through what some of the data is pointing to right now.
What is the forecasting?
Where's the money pointing so people can get a good idea?
Because with the stock market, it's a little bit tricky because people are hedging all their sides.
There's hedge funds involved and institutions.
This is a little bit more pure, in my opinion.
Sure. So a few things.
First of all, OpenAI hiring another CEO.
I think the market is pricing it at 65 cents right now.
I think people believe that, you know, 65% chance.
People believe that there's 65% chance that, you know, Emmett is not going to stay on for much longer
and then they're going to replace him by the end of the year.
The for-profit arm getting shut down is at 20% right now, 20% of the dollar.
Sam Altman coming back is trading close to 50-50, which is honestly, I mean, it's pretty crazy.
It's literally a coin flip on whether this thing goes to the moon or not.
And another board member leaving, more specifically, Ilya, is at 66% right now.
People believe that Ilya is probably going to head out.
So that's really where we are.
Chad GPT-5 being announced this year seems to be very, very unlikely at this point.
The market is pricing it at 4%.
So people are not very bullish on Chad GPT-5 coming out.
So let me flip it over to Jaguar real quick.
Because Jaguar, you're someone who I've seen really use these type of markets.
How do you go about using something like Kalshi?
What, like, attracted you to it?
And then have you been looking at any of the current markets that are up?
Yeah.
I have used Kalshi on maybe five, six different occasions and all the bets that I've made there.
And they have been profitable, except I think one.
But they've always been around the interest rate movements, the FOMC announcement, as well as the inflation expectations.
And the way I have gone about this is, you know, whenever we have gone into the CPI print, I would look at where the consensus is versus what the Cleveland Fed is forecasting.
And Cleveland Fed all year long has been pretty accurate within 20 basis points of whatever the actual data ends up looking like.
And so, you know, I would use that as a benchmark to then figure out whether the consensus is on the high end or it's on the low end.
And then based on that, I will then go to Kalshi and then I would make a bet, you know, that, you know, the CPI print will come in at this percent or that percent.
And so that's how I have always used Kalshi.
I have not done anything outside of that in terms of, you know, there's many other things there, you know, from politics.
From political angles, I believe, and from many other things.
It's something that I have yet to explore into more details as well.
My question, and this is something that has been in my mind actually for a very, very long time, is this.
Have you ever thought about creating market for similar to how you have a market for betting on expectations where the what the FOMC announcement or what the what the inflation will look like?
Or even you have a market for how the S&P or NASDAQ will close in a certain week or I think it's a week or month.
I'm not exactly sure, but above certain level or below certain level.
I think it's daily, if I'm not mistaken, too.
You have where the you know, you're betting on the S&P closing above or below certain level.
And then you make money if you're right or wrong, you know, in that direction.
Have you ever thought about creating a market like this for individual stocks?
And let me give you a specific example.
NVIDIA will be reporting earnings soon, this week, right?
Imagine a market in which people can go and say, I'm going to take a make a bet that NVIDIA earnings per share will come in above certain whatever the market consensus is.
And naturally, the higher you go above the consensus with the range provided, the higher the payout.
Or you could take an under on that, too, if you like.
And so, you know, basically using the probability, the distribution, similar thing you can do about revenues.
I mean, just think about the opportunities.
Just think about the probabilities, how big that could be, because in this case, we're only talking about NVIDIA.
But you can have hundreds of stocks where you could be making market around earnings per share or revenues per, you know, revenues.
Those two particular key line items that everybody looks at.
Have you thought about that at some point?
Is there something in the works?
I can't hear Tarek.
Can you guys?
Nope.
Nope.
No, I can't either.
Okay.
I was giving it a second.
I can't hear you, Tarek.
If you can hear us, you might need to drop down and come back up onto the stage.
I did hear a lot of good questions from Jaguar.
Yeah, unfortunately, we can't hear you, Tarek.
I'm not sure if you're using it on, like, a computer or something.
Usually, a computer will cut out after a short period of time.
But, Jaguar, a lot of good questions that I'm excited to dive into.
I also would.
So, let me, until he comes back, let me just elaborate on that.
You know, imagine, let's suppose the expectation for November CPI is, you know, is about.
I'm just going to make it up.
I don't even know what that number is, but let's just call it 3.3%.
And the way Kulshi has worked is that if you bet that it's going to be, you know, 3.4%,
your probability is less, but your payout is higher.
You go, and I'm going to say it's going to be 3.5%, same thing.
Probably probability is even lesser, but the payout is even higher.
And so, they make markets on both sides of that expectations on the street.
You know, the street is at 3.3%, under and over.
Imagine a market in which you could do this with earnings, with hundreds of stocks on both
earnings per share and the revenue line.
I mean, that platform could just mushroom into something massive potential that nobody has
ever.
So, his back looks like it.
So, I have that question.
Feel free to jump in.
Yeah.
Well, thanks for all these questions.
And I've heard all of them.
So, and sorry about the mic issue.
I was saying two things.
I think, one, we have considered it, and this is something that is in the works.
And I think the way I would put it is, you know, we are very, we are definitely looking
very heavily into essentially listing all, like, quarterly earnings for all major stocks.
And this is going to be earnings per share, you know, basically hit or miss estimates, and
then also a revenue line, and then we can also go into other lines, right?
How many, how many, like, you know, the number of Teslas sold, or other, you know, number
of streams on Netflix, essentially other types of KPIs, so that you can essentially isolate
that specific factor of the stock and then trade.
Oftentimes, people trade on a stock because they believe, you know, there's a certain segment
of a company that's going to do better or worse, or some specific event that's kind
of, that ties to a company that's going to do better or worse.
And we're going to allow people to do this in a very direct way without having exposure
to the entire stock that is, that has other factors in it.
Number two is, you know, we, we, we currently have those for all the major financial markets
that are not single stock specific.
So S&P, NASDAQ.
So if anyone trades SPX, SPY, options, or, or, or ETFs, same with QQQ, SQQQ, you can trade
those on Cal sheet on a daily and weekly basis.
And we actually have a, have a surprise coming up, coming up, uh, I'll leave it a bit mysterious,
but we have a surprise coming up a little bit later this year and a new product we're
launching around that, um, uh, that is going to be a different, different expiration than
daily.
And then we also have, you know, commodities effects in a variety of other markets.
But yeah, that's, that's, I think a great point and a great, great question.
Yeah.
Really good stuff for Jaguar.
If you have more, feel free to cut in.
I'm looking at some of these markets right now.
One of the ones that I think, uh, has been pretty interesting.
I was, I was watching that November, 2023 market, and this is crazy.
There was a trader who made $35,000 in under an hour last month, just predicting CPI and
where it would ultimately come in, uh, in October, which was nuts.
Um, so there's just some of these markets that really just stand out to me.
I like the Fed ones.
One of the ones since Tarek, we're on a, you know, we, we came from a stock trading audience.
You guys do have a lot of stuff that's related to the stock trading side of things to where,
uh, SPI is going to close for the year, to where QQ is going to close for the year, right?
Different areas like that.
But I'm curious if you could walk through kind of what some of those markets are indicating
right now and what you think people can get from them.
Cause again, they can join up for free through that link up top and they can see it themselves
too.
Yeah, totally.
So we have a lot of stock related things, whether it's just directly trading on certain
financials, like where will the market close?
Or, you know, at the end of the year, will the market close on a variety of other, other,
you know, other maturities or other dates.
Um, but we also have this notion of events that tie to the stock, which is, you know,
essentially, um, events that have a very material impact on the stock that a lot of people have
views on.
So, so I'll take the example of, of Apple.
Uh, so we have a number of Apple, Apple related markets.
So when Apple revealed the car, essentially when Apple, uh, uh, reveals the portless iPhone,
Apple revealing a foldable iPhone, there's all these markets are currently listening on
that people trade quite, quite well.
So if you have a position in Apple, but you're worried that they're going to miss the deadline
or a certain product release or product launch, uh, we have, you know, a lot of markets on,
on their various product launches, et cetera.
Um, and a lot of people are using that to play that, but to, to, to, to play the pricing
of that market versus the pricing of the stock.
Uh, and, and, you know, I mean, I think the, the beautiful thing about Calci is, is, is,
I would say the two beautiful things about Calci is one, it's a marketplace where it's,
you know, really fair game for anyone is when you're trading a share of stock or when
you're trading an option on your typical broker.
The thing is like, it's, you know, it's, it's often, you know, falling within PFOF or other
types of, uh, you know, trading routing, routing mechanisms.
So you're often trading against like a large scale institutional market maker or hedge fund.
So that I would say that one of the main reasons why we're really excited about Calci is like
you're really trading against other people that may have a differing opinion of you.
So if you read the news, you know a lot about a certain stock, you know a lot about the
news surrounding that stock, how they're approaching product development or other things, you may,
you may have an edge and you can make quite a bit of money.
And that brings me to my second point, which is, you know, there is essentially the way
that we structure the markets and I'll reiterate the structure.
You know, every one of our markets settles to one or zero, think of it like an option that
sells to one or zero and you can buy however many shares you want.
So if you buy a share on, you know, will Apple launch Apple vision pro this year, it's going
to pay out $1 if, you know, Apple launches Apple vision pro and zero, if not, then you
can buy it any price in between.
So you can buy it 40 cents on a dollar, which means you think there's a 40% chance that this
is going to happen.
And so for every 40 cents that you get, you're going to get paid $1.
Uh, so right now, for example, for let's take an example, the Apple revealing a new car,
um, right now it's trading at 10 cents on the dollar.
And this is by next year.
So if Apple reveals a new car by next year, you can buy that a 10 cents on a dollar.
So if you buy, let's say a thousand dollars of that or a hundred dollars of that, you
get 10 X payouts if you end up being right.
Um, and that's how a lot of people are actually, you know, putting on these like really great
trades.
You know, the example of CPI that you mentioned, there's a number of traders that have been
trading CPI for a year, year and a half, and they made hundreds of thousands of dollars
because, you know, they read the news, they put on these hedges, they have a portfolio
that may or may not be impacted by inflation.
And then, you know, they, they have a views on inflation where it's going and they, they
put out, put on these positions.
Um, and, and even with something as little as $10, a hundred dollars that some people
start with, you end up being able to multiply your portfolio quite, quite, quite significantly.
Because you don't, you know, with Calcio, you can start with $1.
It's actually very easy.
And so you can dip your toes with little, if you're reading the news, have a little bit
of skin in the game while reading the news and, you know, see how it goes.
Yeah, very well put there.
Evan, have you looked through any of these before, uh, or kind of followed the money?
Because I know you do new stuff.
I wonder if there'd always be, almost be like new stuff inside of here, like in regards
to open AI or other areas.
Yeah, I was definitely, uh, taking a look at it the other day.
I got, um, some interesting stuff.
I was looking at a lot of stuff around the Fed and, um, some interesting stories.
So fascinating to see where people are investing.
I was seeing if I could, uh, snipe a little bit of value in people expecting them to cut
or them to raise rates.
But no, it's not like 99% to hold at the next meeting.
So, uh, I didn't really take anything there, but I was, uh, I was looking around.
I found it pretty interesting.
I like a lot of, uh, Jaguar's ideas around specific events around earnings, but, but yeah,
I was, I was taking a look at, um, the, uh, the Fed events.
There was a couple other stuff I was looking at.
Let me, let me open the app.
I have two, uh, factor authentication, so it takes a minute.
Give me a second.
No problemo.
And then I want to get Shy and Kyle and Nathan to the mix here too.
Uh, maybe take a look and see if you guys see any markets that seem interesting to you
or feel free to just give thoughts in general on some of what we've been talking about here.
Are there any questions at Tarek?
Oh, geez.
Uh, while it's going.
What's up?
Random.
Um, Cisco owns my two factor authentication app now.
Um, but, uh, what was I looking at?
I was looking at the recession by year end one too.
Ooh.
I, I can't lie.
I don't fully understand how the payouts work.
Actually, this one makes more sense.
All right.
Okay.
I'm going to take it.
No recession by the end of the year.
Cool.
Yeah.
So in this specific market, if you know, anyone who's, who's gone on the app, if you
look, go to the recession market and you see, you know, we, there's a recession by end of
year, uh, market today and, uh, or by 2024, the end of year today, basically our markets
is crossing in that there's a 99% chance that there will be no recession.
So the market thinks that there's no recession whatsoever.
So, you know, you may be on the, on the side of the people that think that there's no recession
and buy the 99 cents on the dollar and get this like small 1% return.
Or you might be the other side, which thinks something crazy might air up from now till
the end of year.
And you might get a hundred X.
It's a little bit of a hedge, like a, like a long tail risk hedge or blocks on hedge where,
you know, can buy a 1% and get the hundred X multiplier.
The 2024 market seems to be trading at 50, 50.
I think that might be the one that you just bought.
Um, yeah, it totally was actually, now that I'm saying that.
Yeah.
So I have a question now, when I put it in an order and if you want to cancel it, how do
you, how do you do that?
I think there's like, uh, are you on the app or on the website?
Ah, which is a really cool app by the way.
I'll have someone from the team DM you right now, Evan, on how to cancel.
I do like the app though.
This is new, right?
Yeah.
Yeah.
I think that, I mean, the recession market for 2023 was kind of crazy because there's a
lot of people that bought no early on.
Um, some people managed to buy it at 30 cents on the dollar a month or two.
I'm going to stick with no.
I'm going to stick with no.
I feel like we'll, we'll see on this one.
I'm surprised it's not higher.
Um, a lot of people are talking about there being a recession coming up.
Yep.
It seems like Jaguar has another, has another question if you want to jump in.
Yeah.
Um, wanted to ask you about, um, the legal framework Kalshi operates in and let me fine tune the
question, the sort of betting that, you know, that people can do in Kalshi, does that fall
into, uh, securities or does that fall into gambling?
Because, I mean, and this is mostly, I guess what I'm trying to say is that should I look
at this as people betting on sports, you know, betting on over and under and maybe picking
alternative lines, right?
When you think about NFL or something and then getting payout accordingly, or does that fall
into some sort of, uh, securities laws and regulations that, that is governed by?
Because, um, like, can you just enter into any state or are you all in 50 states?
Because if it is the gambling side, you know, you, you, it's not, it's not legal in every
single state.
Can you opine on that just a little bit, just so that I understand how does the framework of
the business works?
What, what category do you fall in?
Yeah.
I mean, it's, it's, it's very simple actually.
Uh, and you know, it took us years to figure this out, but now we have a simple answer to
it, which is great.
But, so we are regulated as a financial exchange.
We're regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the CFTC.
So it's not, it's not gambling and it's also not quite a security.
It's actually a commodity.
Um, a little bit like, you know, you probably heard a conversation about Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Should they use commodities?
Should they use securities?
So all of our markets are commodities.
Um, and you know, we have spent close to three, three, three years getting regulated before
we launched any product.
And what we own is we own, uh, uh, the, uh, an exchange license, an exchange and clearinghouse
license.
So one of the very few operators of an exchange and clearinghouse licenses in the U S and it's
a, it's a, it's a, it's at the federal level.
We're regulated by the federal government, not a state by state or anything like that.
So we have access to all 50 states and anyone from any, any, any state in the U S can access
the product.
Um, so, and, you know, just to give you a little bit of context.
So some of our structure of the product is, uh, some of the products are structured as
binary, you know, essentially yes, no, will it happen or not?
Um, but it's, there's a very crucial distinction in the way that we regulate it.
All of our markets have economic utility.
Essentially they are tied to things that are economic and socially relevant.
And, you know, some people may want to be, you know, want to come to trade because they
want to speculate.
They want to make money.
Some others may want to hedge certain risks and others may not even want to trade, but
the pricing power of this is very important.
If you're a stock trader and you want to figure out what's going on with open AI and what, what,
what is the likelihood that all sorts of things are going to happen?
Like change in CEO, Sam Altman coming back, all these different things.
And you want to use that as a way to like, as a signal to go and trade Microsoft.
That's also a very important piece of our markets.
Um, but yeah, no, this is a great question.
And obviously it's a very important one, but, um, you know, this is one of the key differentiators
of CalShades.
We are actually the first and only regulated exchange that can list markets on any event
and any headline that people understand, people have knowledge about, and people, people
can make money off of.
Very nice.
Yeah, Nate.
Yeah, I'm just looking over these things and, uh, I've got a group of friends that likes
to debate and, you know, we have strong opinions like many of the folks on these panels do.
And, um, it looks like just the, the wide, uh, amount of different topics that you can really
get into here.
It's kind of never ending.
Um, as far as like economic data, um, you know, I'm looking at oil data.
Yeah, I'm imagining you have stuff around gold and or silver, other commodities.
Yeah.
Uh, and then with the elections coming up, you know, we get it, we get into pretty heated
debates.
So I think this is great to be able to put our money where our mouth is, but, um, is
there anything with respect to the elections coming up that is like, uh, do you get creative
with some of these events?
Um, and try to, I mean, obviously you need to get some volume, but I'm just kind of trying
to think of some things that maybe aren't quite as obvious to folks that might be coming
Yeah, no, totally.
And let me, let me kind of address a few things.
So, um, first of all, I think anyone, and I mentioned this last week, anyone can sign
up and you can suggest the market.
You can come up and say like, look, this is a specific risk to my stock portfolio or something
that I want to trade on that I have a strong opinion about.
Uh, and we, you know, sometimes we might not list it, but oftentimes we actually do list
the market and then people can trade it actively.
And this ties to my point number two, which is like, how did we start the company and why,
why did we start it?
So I worked at Goldman Sachs.
I wasn't, I worked at a bank before.
I also worked at Citadel and a few other hedge funds.
And there was something really impressive about that place is a lot of times, very, very,
very often investors, whether it's like high net worth individuals, family offices, large
corporations, hedge funds would come to the bank and they would ask us, Hey, I want to
bet on Brexit or I want to hedge myself against Brexit.
Same thing about elections, same thing about a hurricane or a climate risk or other things.
Those were fundamentally event-driven trades.
It's like you have an opinion and a conviction about something like COVID will go worse or
better.
And then I want to figure out like, what's the right way to put on that conviction?
That type of trading happens a lot with banks.
And I used to structure these products at that desk.
And so the question that like really came to mind is, I mean, these guys were making tons
of money out of these bets.
And the question is, well, why is this not accessible to the average investor, the average
trader?
Like, because, you know, obviously if you don't have like a monster balance sheet, you cannot
go to Goldman Sachs and basically trade those freely.
That's not something that you can do.
Those guys are usually like very, very large institutional clients that have large sums of money.
And so to us, it was like all about like, well, if you go to a bank and you can trade this
over-the-counter, OTC, on a bilateral basis, like how about we just create an exchange where
there's open access, free access to all of it.
The pricing is fully transparent and people are trading against each other on all these
different things.
Because people do actually, exactly what you said, debate about a variety of different
things and disagree on the price or the forecast of a variety of different things.
And so we should just let the market do its thing.
We can open a marketplace for people to come and place all those trades.
And that's really part of the long-term vision is allowing anyone to come and trade on those
things that some of the large institutions trade on and make money off of.
And so that was really the impetus for us to start a company and get really excited about
this notion of, well, you trade on stocks, fine.
And you trade on sometimes options.
You trade on bonds.
But the universe of things that you care about or you have knowledge about and that you read
the news is not limited to Cisco or Microsoft.
It's not limited to the U.S. government balance sheets health, which obviously translates into
trading bonds.
It is very wide.
It touches on politics.
It touches on what's happening in Congress.
It touches on whether taxes are going to go up or down.
It touches on where it's going on with the climate.
Are there going to be more or less hurricanes this year?
Is the earth actually getting warmer or not?
COVID and what's going to happen with it?
Are we going to get a new measles outbreak and what's going on with our economy, right?
Are we going into a recession or not?
Everyone goes on Twitter and talks about, you know, you have like 50, 50 of people.
50% goes and says we are absolutely going to have a recession this year.
The other 50% says there's zero chance we're going to have a recession this year.
We're like, how about we just open a marketplace and see who actually ends up being right?
You know, come put some skin in the game instead of just like, you know, saying stuff on
Twitter and, you know, we'll see who ends up being right.
So that's really the beauty of this.
And, you know, it's been working the last few months.
I know, Wolf, you mentioned this.
We've seen like, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars trading through the platform and
a variety of different things.
I mean, even some single markets that we have, like end of year, where is S&P or NASDAQ
going to be?
I think they're trading like something like $30 million is exchanging hands there.
So it's been a very exciting time.
And, you know, please, if you're in the audience and you sign up to the app, ping me an email
or you can do it via the app or support.
You can just tell us any markets that you want to see.
And we're always like very eager to hear about those because, you know, the more markets
we put up, the more liquidity we put in these markets and the more, you know, we become
this sort of true general marketplace for people to trade on the things that they believe in.
Yeah, I love that.
Hey, Shai, any of these markets been standing out to you?
Anything interesting here?
Have you ever looked at a platform like this?
I haven't, but I definitely am going to because, like, I say all the time, like, I have specific
stocks in my growth portfolio, like Mercado, Lieber, Celsius, where I know they're going
to just destroy earnings.
So, like, what Jaguar is saying, like, if this, we can, inevitably, there's going to be, like,
more earnings-specific spreads on the platform.
That would be really interesting for me to use just because I do so much research already,
a lot of channel checks, and that would make it a lot more fun for me.
And also, like, it seems like a cheaper hedge than what I currently do, which is naked putts.
If I want to do certain, like, if they're going to miss the top line, like, Confluent
miss the top line, or even if, like, I knew Trade Desk would have a light guide due to
Meta's comments on their earnings, like, that would be fun to play it that way.
Or just, like, gamifying the, like, stocks with my friends, like, just be casual.
Like, and the perfect example is Transmedics, like, there's a disagreement with my co-host on
the Pounding the Table podcast where I said it's going to be a $100 stock next year.
It's going to hit that.
And he disagrees.
And that would be interesting if we can just, like, do a wager with each other on the platform
if it's going to touch that or not.
Or if I knew Spy was going to hit $450 before the end of the year.
I made even a post about it two months ago when there was a big dip in the market.
Like, really, I should have bought a naked call maybe, but I think it would be more fun
to use the platform to do that.
But it's definitely really interesting.
I'm going to look into it more.
And I totally agree with you, Shai.
I mean, I always say this, right?
Right?
Like, I think this is oftentimes cheaper than basically buying calls and puts on options
based on what you think is going to happen.
And there's two other attributes as well, which is, it's one, there's, you know, it's
cheaper.
Two is, it's actually more direct and cleaner.
So if your view is not on the stock, like the overarching stock, but your view is on
something specific, like a specific driver, like a catalyst or something that you believe
is going to drive the stock, like, hey, the next earnings print or, you know, a board member
leaving OpenAI or Sam Altman coming back to OpenAI.
If your view is this, you know, what we are offering is a cleaner expression of that view.
Just trade on that view directly.
Don't go via the sort of indirect route of the stock because, you know, the stock may,
you may be right about your view on, you know, the earnings may be higher than you expect
or inflation may be lower than the market expects.
And you may be right about that if that's your view, but the market may still not move
in the right, in the quote unquote right direction.
And that's oftentimes what we see a lot of traders come to us is like, well, I was right,
but I still lost money.
And on Calcio, the beauty of it is like when you're right, you make money.
There's no being right and then losing money because you didn't guess what the market reaction
is going to be.
You just have to guess what's going to happen, not what the market reaction to what's going
to happen is going to be.
And so it's just like an additional set of tools that you can complement your current set of
tools like options and stocks and others when you're trading.
And that's been sort of something that people are using.
And, you know, I think the other fun part and interesting part of it is like it's beautiful
for people to see like, you know, when people are tweeting, right?
Like I just linked a tweet on the thing.
Someone was talking about how Satya just went on Bloomberg and talked about or CNBC, I guess
both CNBC and Bloomberg and talk how he wants to open AI board to be gone.
And it's interesting because now we have a real time forecast, a real time market price
for how things move in real time based on, you know, this type of news, this type of commentary.
You can and you can do something about it.
You can have some skin in the game, trade for or against it and see what happens and go
from there.
So I thought that was an interesting tweet that I just shared with the audience.
Love it.
Kyle, you want to jump in here?
You got any thoughts?
Oh, no worries.
OK, so again, I got a couple of DMs from people who are asking where they can find this info,
how they can trade on it.
It's pretty simple.
So the app is free and this is a newer app that they released.
You can find it on my timeline.
I also pinned it up into the top of the space.
Just retweet it on my timeline just to make sure it's all the way at the top for everyone
to see.
But I like to make things simple.
So if you can't find it, just DM me.
You could send me whatever you like.
You could send me the words market sentiment and I'll send it over to you.
Something that just lets me know what you're reaching out for.
And then once you get into it, you set up your account.
Pretty easy to do.
Once you put $30 in, they'll match you.
Free $30 as well.
So a nice little way that you can get started and you can play around.
And again, you can do very small bets on these event outcomes as you kind of work your way
up and figure it out.
But it could be a really nice supplement, especially if you're someone that is a stock trader or
a sports bettor, right?
It's probably right in your field throughout.
Question to you, Tarek, for beginners that are starting to use this.
What's kind of the guidelines, insights, tips that you would give to people to best maximize
it and also to hopefully be profitable?
Sure.
Yeah.
I mean, I think that's a great question.
And, you know, I'll first caveat with, you know, I cannot give trading advice around
a regulated exchange.
So please don't take this as any trading advice.
I'll just give tips on what I think like is best practices when you first sign up and
go from there.
So we just released our new app.
This app, the reason why we did a new app is we wanted to build an app and an app experience
that's geared.
So, you know, so far, a lot of our chairs are a little bit more on the sophisticated
side and they've, you know, they use like an app that's a bit more cluttered, that has
more tooling, more numbers, et cetera.
You can still access that app from our new app.
But, you know, currently our interface is something that's really simple, that really
guides you through a lot of the steps and makes it easy for you to basically make the
right choice.
So, obviously, I would encourage you to use the app, not the website to start with because
I think there's just like simpler and it's a bit of a cleaner interface.
And over time, you can basically scale up to the website and other.
Two, I would say, I mean, you know, just take the free money.
Like we're doing this for a short period of time.
We're just excited about people using the more simple and the more casual app.
And so, I think just take the free money to get started and dip your toes in it.
Three, I would say, you know, diversify.
So, start small.
Don't go all in on one trade.
Like, you know, what you would do with any type of trading, you know, do multiple trades
and do multiple small trades.
Whatever your bank, you know, your bankroll could be.
You could start with $10.
You could start with $100,000.
And we see that range on CalShift.
Some people even start with higher.
But whatever it is, you know, just don't go 100% or 80% in one trade.
You know, maybe do 5% to 10%, 10% to 20% at the most on any one trade and do multiple trades.
And the reason is, like, you're just getting into the habit, right?
Like, you're building the habit and you're building that brain of, like, let me just, like,
figure out what the forecast is.
Let me figure out how markets are pricing different things.
How am I interplaying this with the stock and other things?
Now, obviously, you know, if you have a very strong conviction in something,
you know, sometimes you want to go for your conviction
because those are some of the things that really bring the types of returns
that, you know, make some people, you know, that true legends are made of.
And I always like to get the example so that there's a few traders
that actually predicted the Omicron wave earlier than the market,
and they bought at 1% to 2% on the dollar.
So those people made 50% to 100% return over the span of one to two months.
And just, you know, obviously with a very small bankroll,
actually just made a significant, significant amount of money.
And so those are some of the things I would say.
The last is I would say you can exit your position.
You don't need to hold your position until the end.
It's a bit like a – it's the same as stock or options.
So if you buy, let's say, today, I think the OpenAI –
I think Sam Altman is going to come back to OpenAI,
and it's currently priced at 50%.
And if it moves to 80% in the next one to two days, you can exit.
You can close – you know, take your winnings and exit.
And you don't need to wait or write it out until the very end,
until he actually joins or not joins, until expiration.
And so that's something I always advise people to do is, like, you know,
exit early and cut your losses early, whether you made money or lost money.
It's usually better, in my opinion.
I have found it to be better than just, like, writing until the end.
But those are some of the things that I would say.
And last is, you know, ping me anytime.
I'm on Twitter.
My email is Tarek, T-A-R-E-K, at calsheythenameofthecompany.com.
We're very, very heavy on support and really giving a white glove experience to customers.
So you can always ask us questions, and we'll always be there.
Love it.
Let's get some other thoughts kind of going on some of these other pieces.
So market-wide, Tarek, we haven't really dove in too much into this.
What's your take on this market right now with volatility but still seeing fresh 52 highs on McHugh's today?
Yeah, I mean, that's great.
And then thanks for asking.
So, you know, the caveat, as I would say, is, like, you know, I used to try to be an expert about the economy
and what's going on in markets, and now I stop.
I just listen to the market.
I just look at the probabilities of what the market is forecasting, what people would be all skin in the game.
And, you know, they tend to be – are they always accurate?
No, the market is not always accurate, but, you know, the market is a very, very good way to actually aggregate people's opinions
and forecast certain things.
So, you know, inflation right now, November, CPI, the projection is at 0.1%.
So still low, nothing too crazy there.
And I think that's, you know, I would say it goes along the lines of what I think Powell is intending.
I think there's – on the Fed side, which is a more interesting market, so federal – like FOMC and Fed interest rates,
it seems like there's more than a 50% chance that the Fed will cut by the May 2024 meeting.
So close to nine months from now, which would be the first cut since March 2020.
And could – it seems like we're starting to signal a shift in the Fed's direction.
So hard to know exactly, but it looks like, you know, it looks like we're basically in a territory where, well, the Fed has been hiking.
It seems like they want to – you know, they're probably going to maintain the current level for a period of time until, you know, more and more –
however you see it, but more and more pain and stealth in the economy and there's more and more of a slowdown.
And then they – maybe mid-next year is when they potentially start lowering.
So, you know, you can do that without what you think.
But if you couple that with our recession market – so our recession market for 2024 is expecting a 50% chance of a recession.
You know, I personally think it's cheap.
I would say – given, you know, where the Fed is going to keep things at, it feels to me like, you know, we have a little bit of a higher chance of recession.
But, you know, a 50% chance of a recession is not something to shrug at.
I would just say one last thing.
So we have a market on Biden's approval rating, which is a market that happens every week.
And people are trading on that every week.
And, you know, I personally really enjoy that market because it tends to be a very good leading indicator of, like, people's sentiment about the economy
and people's sentiment about, you know, the current politics at play.
And so that has been decreasing.
You know, I think a week ago it was at – it was a little bit higher.
Right now it's at 39.5%.
And Trump's approval rating or acceptance rating is at 41.3%.
And those usually are leading indicators of how, you know, the politics of the country ends up evolving.
So I'm definitely keeping a close eye on that.
And, you know, I think other people should too.
The last one I'll mention is Joe Manchin leaving the Democratic Party.
And, you know, I think this is becoming a very, very real possibility.
And it's currently trading at 50-50 as well.
So all those things are, you know, really coin trips.
And who knows how this can go.
It could go one way or the other.
So just really, really interesting.
Really interesting, I would say, next few months.
A lot of volatility and a lot of chaos to be had.
So, you know, I would encourage you all to do something about that chaos.
A lot going on there.
Love it.
You know, Shai, Nate, if you guys have any comments on that, feel free to pop in.
Real quick, before they do so, Tarek, somebody asked me, is there an approval process to get approved for the app?
Somebody was saying that they have to wait a day.
Let them, you know, it shouldn't be a day wait.
There is KYC, obviously, because, you know, like any financial product, we do KYC.
I want to make sure that, you know, it's safe for everyone and, you know, people have the right qualifications.
But, you know, it should take a few, you know, it should take less than a minute.
And it's very simple, very smooth.
And, yeah, and there's really no other requirement.
You can start with as little as, you know, $5, $10 and then go from there.
But I saw the tweet, so I'll reach out to the Tarek.
I'll have our team, I'll have support to get it out.
Yeah, I got on pretty quickly.
It wasn't a day for me.
Okay, so it shouldn't be too much trouble.
All right, Shai, we're talking a little market here.
I want to work you back in, talking spying cues here.
I know you do go all over the spectrum, but what are your thoughts on some of what Tarek shared there in regards to the markets and us hitting 52-week highs here?
I mean, tomorrow, I don't think it's going to happen until NVIDIA reports.
I think everyone's going to be in a standstill or actually the FOMC meeting minutes are coming out tomorrow, which might be interesting.
But, again, I just think QQQ will just be on a standstill until NVIDIA numbers come out.
But I'm watching IWM more.
They're right at their 200-day moving average.
And I spoke last week that it was a clear rejection at 181.
So as soon as that happened, I re-upped my hedges on IWM because I handle public small-cap portfolio.
And it's been hovering around that range again.
So I'm curious to see if, again, if the FOMC becomes a really bullish move on the market and nothing alarming happens with NVIDIA, like we could have a rager on Wednesday, an absolute rager.
And IWM could clear that 181 price.
And if that happens, all the indexes I think I track are going to be above that 200-day moving average.
That's going to be a very bullish sign if you combine that with seasonality, that the market should have a pretty strong rally to finish the year.
And then who knows when we come to January, we could have an inverse to what we had this year where we had a big sell-off towards the end of the year last year.
And then markets just went out running and started gapping up.
But next year could have the inverse relation, but who knows.
But, again, if nothing alarming happens tomorrow, I think all signs are green light for the rest of the year rally.
And who knows how high it could fly.
I know SPY is just like—for some reason with SPY, I don't think SPY will move that much.
I really do think small mid-cap specific growth will have the delta in the rally next month or so.
But SPY is going to be kind of pinned to that 450 numbers, my bets.
However, IWM has so much room to go.
Like, if they clear that 181, there's some resistance in 185 range.
But if they clear that, it is—oh, my God.
It could run.
It can absolutely run.
And it would be really interesting to see that just because the narrative is already kind of becoming more widespread popular on that rate cuts are going to happen sooner than later.
There's no more rate hikes that are going to happen.
That's exactly why I started a small-cap portfolio a month ago.
And I just think it's going to be, like, a great time, hopefully, for the rest of the year.
And, yeah, that's why I'm watching just because—this is super greedy, I know, but, like, I'm at 70% year-to-date gains for my growth portfolio.
Like, I will love—I don't think I'm going to get triple digits.
But, like, that was always a dream of mine.
I know my buddy Jonah Lupton is at above 100% already, like, on 110.
I would just really want to not give up my 70% year-to-date gains.
At the same time, my second portfolio I run, my small-cap's portfolio, it's up 30% in the past month.
I really, really think that portfolio is going to fly.
Like, I would not be surprised if it actually gets 50% in, like, a month or two just because I really do think small-cap names can run.
And it really feels squeezy, the environment right now.
And, again, I don't see any resistance or, like, potential headwind news coming after this week.
So that's kind of what's on my mind right now.
Yeah, Nate?
Yeah, good stuff.
The conversation around small-caps kind of got my head, thinking about a bunch of different things as it relates back to what we're talking about here with Kalshi.
And the events here.
But, yeah, Shai, I know I don't have to tell you, but don't hit the roulette table on the way out of the casino.
You know, you've had quite the year of 70%.
So really strong work there, man.
That's impressive.
So the overall thoughts I had when we were thinking about this, when we were talking about this is I was curious if this is something that's already out there on the app or something that could be looked into.
But, you know, I like to do, like, kind of pairs trading with friends and say, okay, you know, one sector compared to another or a bundle of stocks, for example, compared to another.
Or you might be looking at growth versus value.
And over, you know, periods of time, maybe it's for the year or the month or a quarter.
But, you know, one way or another, just kind of comparing because, you know, right now is a really good setup for a lot of folks are saying techs, you know, had their run.
And other folks are saying tech's about ready to take off and with NVIDIA going to lead the way.
You've got people talking about energy and what direction the price of oil.
I know you've got the oil price, you know, kind of information out there.
But comparing energy versus tech and which is going to outperform, I think that would be some interesting, you know, those kind of comparisons or bets that could be made, I think, would be pretty interesting as well.
So, and like the different bundles of stocks, you have, you know, some more popular retail names versus somebody maybe more of the stalwarts or, you know, more known for institutional ownership and could do comparisons there.
So, yeah, great conversation and those thoughts kind of rolling around.
I'm curious if any of those things have popped up in conversation or are possibilities.
Yeah, I mean, those have definitely popped up.
And, you know, I actually just sent the team some of the suggestions you made.
But maybe here's what we can do, Nate.
Send me a list of some of the pairs that you want to have and, you know, we'll see, you know, give us a challenge on how fast we can turn those around and list them as tradable markets.
And maybe make it happen this week, even before Thanksgiving.
And I think I really like we don't have that market energy versus tech.
I actually really like that market.
And it's made me think about also like tech versus broader economy because there's a lot of people that are talking like, hey, there's going to be a clear recession in tech.
And that's, you know, obviously there's a lot of issues there, but it's clear that there's going to be a recession in the broader economy.
And how can we compare those and how could those, you know, outperform or underperform each other?
So that's actually a very interesting market to me.
So I also think the team, the market team, to basically get started on those.
Thanks for those suggestions.
Yeah, thanks, man.
Appreciate it.
Jaguar?
Yeah, Jack?
Yeah, I have to drop off here shortly to sitting down for dinner with my family.
But I just wanted to say this scholarship platform has tremendous amount of potential for growth and to bring in a way to bet on individual stocks and markets
and all kinds of markets, really, in ways that has never been possible before.
And so I just wanted to go back and revisit what I was saying earlier by giving you a specific concrete example.
You know, I'm the type of a trader and investor that always and always fundamental first and technical second.
You know, every single opportunity that I look at long or short is always first understanding what's happening in business trends
and what my outlook on the stock is going to be and whether my outlook differs materially from the consensus view.
And when I find myself fundamentally in a situation where I believe that a particular company can blow estimates out of water
or can materially under, you know, can report a really terrible quarter, for example, and the consensus is just out of whack,
that's where the biggest opportunities come from.
So it's always fundamental first and technical second.
So as I give you one concrete example, take an example of Palo Alto Network.
Palo Alto Network that reported earnings last week.
And when this company posted earnings per share.
Sorry, I had a phone call coming.
When this company posted earnings per share last week, it was $1.38 versus a street at $1.16.
That's a very, very nice beat.
And similarly, on the revenue side, too, they posted $1.88 billion versus a street at $1.84 billion.
On the revenue side, beat on top and bottom.
But guess what happened to stock that day?
It was down.
It was down 8% after hours that day.
And next morning, while it tried to make some recovery, but the stock still ended up finishing in the red.
Now, you put yourself in the shoes like traders and like myself, and this is exactly where you can make the markets.
And there's tremendous amount of potential for Kalshi to do exactly that, where instead of actually betting on the price of a stock itself,
you're betting on your fundamental research, your hard work on, you know, to see whether the company is going to beat or miss the street expectations.
Right.
And so you would take the over or the under and, you know, and then how much over or how much under on earnings per share and revenues.
And, you know, and similarly, you can do it with hundreds and hundreds of stocks.
And if you really start going down this way, I think you have a platform that could really bring in a very large amount of, you know, traders, investors for both hedging as well as the speculation purposes.
And that's become something very unique that nobody has.
No broker has it.
Nobody has it.
Nobody offers that.
Where you could care less about what the price action of the stock is, you're betting on a particular event materializing, a specific catalyst materializing based on your research, hardcore fundamental research.
And this is exactly the type of work I've done in the past when I've gone into Kalshi to make bets around CPI.
As I mentioned before, where the CPI on a month over month basis will come in hotter, you know, than street or lower than street.
And I've done very well the, you know, the five or six times when I made those bets in Kalshi.
If I could do this on hundreds of individual stocks on earnings per share and revenues, that's a killer product.
And I think that your platform in that scenario can really shine and be completely different and appeal to all kinds of traders.
So that's all I wanted to say.
Thank you very much for having me here.
I'm going to leave here in just a minute or two and then sit down with my family to have dinner.
Thanks, Wolf.
And thanks, everybody.
Well, Jaguar, thanks a lot for the kind words.
I couldn't agree more with everything you said.
And, you know, I always like the angle of fundamentals versus technicals where, you know, you can trade on technicals where you have conviction.
You've built some conviction on fundamentals, which could be because you're doing some hardcore analysis.
It could be because you read the news and have interesting views on a variety of different things or other sources of knowledge or curiosity.
I think, you know, Calgary is a very good place to trade on those fundamentals without having to worry about the market reaction to those fundamentals, where the market reaction could oftentimes be, you know, it could be irrational.
You know, a lot of people like, you know, close to COVID were basically trading like we're, you know, short of the S&P because they thought COVID was going to go worse and we're going to go into recession.
Well, COVID did go worse.
We did go into a smart recession.
But S&P went up and those people didn't make money and lost money.
So I totally, totally agree with the point made here.
But it's a very interesting and important one and really appreciate it.
So, Wolf, I know we're coming up on the hour, so happy to close in whatever way you see most of it.
Yeah, I think we went through a lot of great stuff.
First off, I want to thank Shai, Nate, Kyle, Jaguar, Evan for joining us tonight for this great chat as we talk through some of these event-driven markets.
I've seen over 100 people have clicked into that post above that I put.
But, again, it's a free app to grab.
There's a $30 bonus sign-up.
So if you were maybe down $25 in the market today and you'd like to be positive, here's the positive side of things.
So definitely go ahead and check it out.
And to be honest, you know, you never know until you're in there if you're going to be the type of person that's actually throwing down big money and stuff like that.
But it's really helpful just as a gauge of these markets and a gauge of where money's going.
When you see $100 million come in on something, you're like, okay, clearly there's interest.
I'm going to just share, like, a quick example of something not from the app but something that I did today where basically there was reported that a senator had gone ahead and made a rather sizable, in my eyes, purchase of a specific stock just because, you know, there wasn't a lot of reasoning.
It was a small cap and they sat on a committee that had a relation to the stocks area.
And I saw that and I was like, you know what?
That seems super unusual, right?
Why is this senator going out and buying a stock?
And I went ahead and I just grabbed some of the stock myself because I was just following the money.
I was saying, hey, they probably know something.
Why are they going and doing this?
And I made 11% on Commons today.
At one point I was up almost 15% on them.
The stock absolutely skyrocketed.
Following that.
And I think a big part of that was people following the money and just saying it like this.
And I like to use the same concept in other areas.
So I think with your app, it really allows me to, like, see that and find those opportunities quick.
So, again, big thank you to the panel.
Great to have and shine everyone else on.
We are going to have some trading tomorrow morning.
I just want to put that on everyone's radar at 9, 15 a.m. Eastern.
We'll open up for live trading.
Tarek, I'll turn it over to you.
Any other final comments you want to share on this one?
Yeah, I mean, well, first of all, thanks.
Thanks for having me.
It's really great to be here again.
Yeah, last I would say, you know, if you want to check out events trading in any way,
and, you know, please sign up to the app.
It's scaling quite fast.
There's a free incentive, and we, and, you know, my email, my DMs are open, and my email is Tarek at Kalshi.com.
T-A-R-E-K at the name of the company, K-L-S-H-I dot com.
So ping me anytime.
Love to hear from you, whether it's question, feedback, you have a market suggestion, or anything else.
But, yeah, thanks for having me, and thanks all for listening in.
Perfect.
Thanks so much for being on with us tonight.
That's going to do it for this space.
Again, like I said, everybody come join us 9, 15 a.m. Eastern.
We hope to see you there for now.
Enjoy the rest of your Monday night.
Short week this week.
We'll catch you tomorrow.
Have a good one.
We'll catch you tomorrow.
