Yo Nate, what's going on?
Come through a few charts here looking at a really nice day out of Google, which I'd love to see
Looking at some energy names now that I've been looking at
It's like I feel like I'm getting more options. I was so focused on all the semiconductors. It just crested. So
Been a good day been a good week. How about for you?
Yeah, the morning was good off the bat
I had made a couple profitable trades and then I gave most of it back on a firm
Which did not move with the market today
I don't know if you saw like everything else in that that region was just pumping and then a firm just don't oh, I missed that
Yeah, so if I was just going in the opposite direction, unfortunately is what it is
I had good wins on exp of as well as save probably should have stuck in save for a little while
I mean I was calling that one right off the open just telling everybody in the space
Hey, you know come eyes on save which by the way, what a journey for save today
It went up 16% and then it actually went red at one point during the day and then it closed up
3.26% and it's down a percent after hours
Yeah, that's that's not like a month in a day right there
Had a better day of palantir had done a little bit better for me
It just it couldn't get anything going so I think that trade might be could put so we'll see how that goes tomorrow
Overall things are looking really good really constructive. I again looking at Google looking at meta
And then what's interesting is we have the 10-year moving up to?
All in the backdrop of all this going on. So I don't know if that's just having less of an impact on people's
Sensibility like we just say we're good with the 10-year being here at these four point one four levels what I've got
And you know the VIX not really moving at all. So yeah, just I think that it's a bit of a risk on and
I mean the risk with it there the VIX with the 12 handle 12.55. That's just
Nice and mellow, although I think historically it's about average but you know from for more recent past couple of years
That's nice and low and I think we're starting to see some stocks really take off
So yeah, I heard you call that out for save this morning
I think it's that all day though, but it looks like that trade stay pretty good and
I was checking out Fortnite. So no, I don't know if I say that right Fortnite
Yeah, I think I said it right anyways tickers FT NT and I've been right about that in the newsletter and it took off today
So if it gets a retest of 63, that'll be a nice entry
6320 call it I'm kind of watching that looking at some of these tech names and sass names that I haven't been
Trading recently because I think they're starting to wake up and for Nits got earnings coming up here and a big gap above that
Looking at possibly fill in which would be massive if it did fill it. I mean that gap goes
Let's see. It's it right now. It's four minutes sitting at 64 39
And that gap wrote if they were to fill it would run all the way up to north of $74. So
That would be quite the move. I mean keeping my eyes on that if we get a retest to 63
I'm gonna think I'm gonna have to jump in and
See if we can't ride for more upside so nice moves
They're making new highs today relative to the recent weeks and just continue to March higher
Looking for more more stocks like that right that are respecting the moving averages and just continuing to March
Have you been looking at Boeing? I feel like this could continue to get crushed here
I've been hearing two different narratives from each side
You know, there's the one narrative which is flights extremely safe, you know, nobody's nobody's gotten hurt. Nobody's gonna get hurt
This is gonna pass once they you know get some inspections done and people become happy with it and the other side of this is
You know, there was another report today that Alaska Airlines said many of its Boeing 737 max 9 planes were found to have loose bolts
And that just you know, it just doesn't seem like good news bones already down 18% year-to-date
It's only up one point two six percent over the past trading year
It's down 42 percent past five years, right? So I'm curious to get your thoughts Nate on what you think here and then Jordan
Yeah, you know in the other arguments, you know duopoly it's just it's just Boeing and Airbus, right?
They should be crushing it and so that's kind of the almost the argument against Boeing too is
Like how they can't get out of their own way. It seems like I mean, there's always some sort of headline some sort of issue
that pulls the stock back and
Yeah, I have a I have a buddy who's constantly telling me to get in and I should have when it was at 160
I think that would have been a nice trade here despite the recent news. But yeah, I think
You know, it's gonna be probably
Rough rough sailing here for the near term and to your point right not really great returns, you know, basically flat over the year
So it's not like something I would get excited for a new term trade
But if you're long Boeing and you need to put some capital to work in that space
You know, you're gonna have some time to maybe dollar-cost average in here
But yeah for me, it's it's just they can't get out of their own way management just continues to have issues
There's continue to be issues there and I feel like as soon as I get past this one
They'll just be something else not too far down the line. What do you think Jordan you I don't remember if you're a fan of
Boeing, you know, I hold some long-term
Maybe I should have sold some up there at the top
In hindsight now, but I don't know I look at the chart obviously technically this can definitely fall
popping up to that daily 90 ma
Getting some hard rejection off of that so far
So at least back to the lows to make a double bottom or a higher low off that 200 if not fall even farther
But at the end of the day, I just I I'm not gonna sell it in my long term for one
Simple reason and it's the fact that Boeing is not just planes, right? I mean we forget that
We forget that Boeing is not just all planes. They are a supplier of pretty like four parts for everyone
So as a company like over the long term, I really don't think this is a that big of a deal
Of course, it's unfortunate. But like everybody's been saying, I mean nobody physically got hurt during all that
Of course, this bad news is just gonna crumble and crumble the stock price until somebody finally bids on it
Right, but at the end of the day the company itself. I don't think it's going anywhere one little mishap
People call it a huge mishap, but there's some there's so many worst scenarios that could have happened there. I feel like
And I mean everybody made it out fine
Right and at the end of the day again Boeing is is a supplier of pretty much everybody's parts. So
For everything it's ridiculous. People forget that my buddy is he's an airplane mechanic and talks about all the time
I mean, they just put in a $50,000 order from Boeing for parts, you know, it's just it's insane
So I maybe I'm biased for that. I I don't know but at the end of the day
I don't think it's going anywhere for the long term
Yeah, I do have a good exposure in the long term through the diamonds
I think the diamonds are my heaviest weighted ETF right now and
It's in the top ten. I think it's like four or five percent and
So I always say at least I want it to do that ETF, right?
But I'm with you. I think you got a good point there, you know
and and it's more than just the
Airplanes, although that is obviously a big piece of it and like I said, it's duopoly
So if they get things figured out and there's no more headlines
It looks like you could just continue to chug higher right just continue
One one good headline of the military with some massive order or whatever, you know
I mean some deal to go through and the stock is right back where we were trading, you know, so
It's I think at the end of the day, it's it's a valuable company at the end of it. I'm gonna hold it long term
It's it's my like 11th biggest position. So it's not like I have a huge weighting. It's just
Definitely something I'm not I'm not selling if I was gonna sell it
I should have taken some profits when we were up at the top, but clearly didn't want to do that
So I ain't gonna sell it now
Want to get your thoughts Nate on another ETF that's been grabbing my attention
Nate are you familiar with Mario Gabelli?
I can't say that I am I feel like that name should I should be familiar. Yeah. Yeah like legendary
Started Gabelli asset management. And so we've been doing a little work with them
But also deep diving into these ETFs and the one that really caught my eye personally
I wanted to get your thoughts on Nate is g-a-b-f
I pinned some info up top if you want to see it
I've been looking to g-a-b-f and I gotta say I mean as as an ETF the technical setup kind of looks great to me
But I'm curious to get your thoughts here. I'm
I'm obviously it's it's not super liquid at this point
At the moment, it's you know, 10 million a UM within there, but their holdings are interesting
I actually the chance to talk with Mac Sykes who I believe runs this one and
He was talking me through, you know, it's heavy in Berkshire and which makes sense
But then there's stuff like FTA I aviation blue owl capital Apollo global management
They have blackstone in here Nate, which I know that you are bullish on this week. Yes
Yeah, it's just an interesting group that they have going on in here and it's
It's it's flat year to date but up 19 and a half percent past year and I just get your thoughts on it
Yeah, this is interesting. I'm checking out the top ten holdings right now and
Yeah, blackstone. I'm not only the bullish near term
I like I like blackstone for the long term and I like the set up here
You're right and that's a looks like a top five holding
So that's I definitely like to see it in Berkshire at the top as you know quality for sure
And then it's nice that you got some names in here that aren't
quite, you know, you've got like Wells Fargo, but then
We've got interactive brokers and then
Apollo global management. So some names that aren't
This WR Berkeley, I'd never heard of it until I saw it in here, but it's already up 9% year-to-date. It's
Just kind of cruising here. The chart looks amazing on it. If you take a look at this
5,000% all-time. I never heard of the stock
Yeah, and then if you go look at the so I'm looking at the GABF
So this is financial services
And I'm looking at the chart and you're right
I can I can tell you know, I'm telling liquidity yet, but as they build assets that I'm sure that
You know that would change it and what I'm seeing is higher lows and higher highs
So that's that's definitely interesting to see maybe the recent higher high
And now is trying to come back and retest it. It looks like such kind of
You know following the market pattern, but more importantly just
Continuing to put in those higher lows. So
Yeah, it looks strong and I like financials just in general here. Like I've been talking recently about regionals and then also about
Reats and it all ties into the financial sector
So this is this looks like a very interesting way to get get in in the in that sector
and you know, you got Berkshire they're anchoring it but
You know these other names in here that are you know, I'm kind of off the radar
I'm really curious enough to start looking into it. Yeah that WR Berkeley is
Definitely performing. Well, it looks like so. Yeah, this is interesting
It's got you got on my radar like usual, I mean, you know, you bring something up. It's usually quality here and
Gets me interested. So what was the what was the name again of these overall these ETFs? I just miss it
It was a belly. Good belly. Yeah, G-A-B-E-L-L-I
pretty legendary investor
Yeah, so that's that's the other one I wanted to talk about Jordan, can you share your thoughts on GGRW because like you said
It's obviously been doing pretty nice recent that that was though. This one did 45% over the year, right?
Was it was that the one it's already up four point seven five percent year-to-date. It's up 36 percent past year
Yeah, we five percent last year and it's nice because it's also some of these growth companies coming out of the bottom
You know exactly. Yeah, so I mean just looking at the chart technically obviously it hasn't been trading too long
So we don't have too much data to go off of but just looking at the monthly and the weekly
I mean, there's a lot of upside upside. I got that. I I love the names in it
Actually Nate take a look at the names inside of GGRW
It's heavily weighted towards Amazon meta Google. Those are the top three and then Nvidia's five Eli Lilly is four
So obviously these are all things near all-time highs Microsoft's in here
But then you have service now MasterCard Palo Alto Networks and intuitive surgical rounding out the top ten
That's strong. I definitely like that. It's a
Especially Palo Alto intuitive surgical to round that out. That's like
Different mix again, you know, you've got the key, you know, meta Google and video at the top
But I like how this mix kind of shakes out
I would definitely is this the whole how much is that? That's half the fun
I want to I definitely look in there's 31 holdings and
I'd be curious what some of the smaller names are in there because that's quite an interesting mix at the top
That's one of their nice things about them as well, they take the anti-cathy model
So these ETFs do not tell the public what assets they hold each day
That's part of it. They're not a traditional ETF and
So it's a little bit different
So III think I mean Evan do you understand how it works when I am fairly sure and you have to update it every single day
It literally says on their website unlike traditional ETFs these ETFs will not tell the public what assets they hold each day
This may create additional risk for your investment
Interesting. Okay. I thought that was some rules there, but I guess I'm wrong. I could tell you though the top 25 holdings if you want
Yeah, what what was the ticker this weekend? So this is GZ on the RW
Let me just get this posted
Yeah, I am really curious. We'll like their top 15 are because they're top 10
I really like and I love I mean, I've kind of become very bullish on Palo Alto
Just because of that that sector as a whole I think is prime
All right. Well, you're gonna take two guesses and I'll tell you if they're in there if you they're both in there you win
Somebody stocks out there. All right, is it is it do they have Tesla in there? They do have Tesla. There you go. That is the
13th largest holding it. Okay one more. Can you go two for two? All right. My other guess is going to be
I'm not seeing in the top 25 of these maybe it's below it. Okay, wait, wait, wait all holdings
I've got to know Andy. I've got three more guesses my three words are tight Taiwan semiconductor Alibaba and Walmart
I'm always gonna go crowd strike. Yeah that crowd strike crowd strike isn't here. Yes, it is
10 11 12 13 the 15th biggest holding this crowd strike I
Holdings of this ETF. It's in the spaces chat that uh
Purple 8 in the bottom right of your screen right now if you want to see them
And we enjoy in this game do you guys want to keep going I am kind of doing look
Ah, I mean, I don't know if that's so much fun. We talked about one of them a lot today
Let's see we talked about Netflix today 11th largest holding or 12th largest holding
I like this. I like getting the hints
What's a good hint for this one big big Photoshop people that's probably too easy
Big Photoshop people Adobe yes
Let's go with some good food
Good food. Oh, by the way, shout out Bobby fish commented. It said Mario is the bomb
No, I wish only it is Chipotle. There you go. Oh the Chipotle's in there
All right, I'll give you a hint
I think the dividend bros love this one
That's not oh, whatever United health. Love you. Bye the dividend bros. That's a terrible Wow
You should know you should have just said like something about health care being at all-time high
I know but whatever. Okay. Yeah mobile I carry a group into it. So it is lattice semiconductor ASML cadence digital systems
Danna her Costco Spotify uber Airbnb booking holdings on holdings
Interesting. Yeah, okay holding this point three booking is 1.2 and the rest are around there
Let's talk about one other ETF and then I did see Shawn commented and asked for thoughts on stuff
So we can go over a couple of things
I'm not sure where J is by the way
I've messaged him several times and it was on his calendar and I can message him again. I
Okay, so the one other one that I want to discuss was this idea of
So if anyone hasn't seen this, I'm just curious how people think that, you know, ultimately, you know
if if any TF like this can be
Long-term have potential I'm curious Nate. I mean you look at LOPP
The names in here are totally different. I didn't know I mean, I didn't know any of their top ten holdings
All right. So first of all, this is maybe the coolest name for any TF
I've seen the love our planet and people ETF like this is dope
Yeah, that's pretty great
Yeah, this is this is definitely an interesting mix. I've got to check out more about
just how they their philosophy a good belly is because each of these like I keep repeating myself saying these are really interesting mixes, but
half of these I mean you've got I
Don't recognize most of these to be honest with you in these in this top ten and makes up a third of the fun
But when you look at the chart, you know, it's it's like it looks like it pulled back recently, but it's been churning
Higher since it since its inception. I don't know. Have you have you done much research on this one?
This is the one that I am still starting to look into because again like these names like Hubble
Flex waste connections. I guess the gist is that these companies are ESG oriented with value investing
But they're very much not in my ballpark. So that's why I was curious
I was just asking see if anyone else had I do want to say one of the coolest
Tickers that I saw which was in there. I just love a good ticker was ticker symbol rock
ROCK, which is Gibraltar Industries and they they do it
They do I mean it's energy renewable energy residential and stuff like that
But I thought that having ticker rock was pretty cool for you know, uh Gibraltar
The rock of Gibraltar, that's it's some smart stuff going on there
I only I only recognize one name and it's it's Cummins
You've never heard of SMP global
But that's like basic, you know, I mean like I'm at like actual he just wanted to make a joke I get it
Not gonna lie, I've never touched SMP global either I
Definitely never brought it up on my chart like I knew
All right, we got mr. Special sits in the house
Oh, yeah, I think I think it's time for us all to take a take a seat here Jay
How's it going, man? No pads out. Hey, Happy New Year. How are you guys?
We are doing good. It's good to have you on the space
We were having a nice little discussion, but we are ready to go for you Jay
We are rolling into the thick of earning season today actually officially kicks it off
I believe unless you you know, uphold the banking and then it kicks off a week or two ago
But there's so much going on between that and upcoming FOMC meeting
Heated election year I would say which is gonna factor in so we're super excited to have you on we've got like 45 minutes
So or actually maybe even 50 I'd love to turn the mic over to you Jay and hear everything you've been late now
Jay are you offended to hear him say that the start of earning season was today with Netflix earnings instead of the banks?
I'm not offended at all. I mean listen, I mean the banks are
Essentially black boxes right for the average investor, you know, we all know that banks don't
Allow I mean they don't give you what their loan balances are
So you're essentially just buying, you know a stream of earnings net interest margin and fees and banking revenues at some multiple
Like most people have no idea what's in a bank
So in reality, you know, there are some value managers that play around and there's some simpler financial instruments you can buy
But I really only buy banks when they're trading at really big discounts
I tend to avoid it. So I agree with wolf, you know, the official earning season is starting this week
You know most real money investors are not you know buying banks or hand over fist and in fact, you know
A lot of banks today trade at big premiums to book value
Despite this, you know super
overnight lending facility expiring in March now
And you know the some of the uncertainty in commercial real estate, etcetera is not gone
So I think that you know, the bank run has, you know has taken place in a majority of that run has taken place in
the short term so we can you know focus on earnings, you know ex the bank so
you know today, I think like 12% of companies have reported and
You know of those 12% of companies, you know, again, like I think 60 plus percent of them have beat
You know, however out of the last five quarters, this is you know, the fourth
The earnings are actually negative so far they're negative 1.7% now
The interesting thing to note is that you know, the biggest and best companies continue to generate positive
EBITDA and you know about
Two-thirds of companies continue to grow their revenues. I'll bet at a slower pace
Just give me just give me one second
I'm just plugging my phone in one second here. No problem. You got to get I bought this stand and
It's a magsafe stand and it holds my phone in like the perfect position for spaces and it has a little pad underneath for my airpods
And it wirelessly charges both of them at the same time. Oh, that's really smart. It should look into that
I guess I'll send you the link. All right, great. So, you know a couple other things to know
While I'm moving around or that, you know from a political perspective going into this election
All right, we just had Iowa and then the New Hampshire
Caucus and I think we get the results at 7 p.m. After 7 p.m. For the New Hampshire caucus
for the Republicans historically
anybody that has won Iowa and New Hampshire tends to be the you know, the final candidate for the
Presidential election. So it looks like we have a high probability that Trump is going to be that
You know fortunately or fortunately is going to be, you know that candidate
Now, how does it how does that play out? And we shared a grid that you know has sector lungs and shorts
Presidential candidate, which I thought was pretty cool
And you know one of the sectors that I think will do well
that we have exposure to is
You know immigration control and private prisons
That you know is core civic and geo
You know under Biden if Biden were to win in one of the sectors
Another sin stock that would do really well would be the marijuana stocks, right?
And right now there's discussion of marijuana stocks moving from schedule one to schedule three
Which means that you know right now when you look at the average marijuana company, it's like tax to 80% gross profit, right and
There you aren't able to get loans from banks, you know, they're restrictions on investors
It is a highly commoditized industry, but you would see a very sharp increase of free cash flow and distribution at the largest
You know marijuana distributors if
Were to pass and there are a couple other, you know, if you look at the election matrices, there are a couple other
Interesting breakdowns when you look at you know aerospace and defense obviously, you know if a
Republican candidate were to win whether it's Nikki Haley tends to even be more
Aggressive on this front than Trump if Nikki Haley were to be the candidate you would expect, you know
The Northrop Grumman's the Lockheed, you know the defense names
to do really well, whereas, you know if you know if you had a situation where
You know button were to win on the other side, you know
Those names would likely not do as well and you know green energy names would would outperform on the short side
We'll talk about Biden Trump and Haley
The names that would do well
Or sorry that the names to short under by another Biden presidency would be a lot of the pharma names because his goal is to
You know lower prescription to drug costs. I'm also oil and gas because of obviously ESG
Financials because of bank regulation
There's been a lot of discussion about a bank regulation would be negative for profitability
And even JP Morgan has spoken against it because he feels like he has a situation under control
And obviously US Treasuries because spending would be out of control
Under Trump the names to short just given his sharp stance in the past on
You know this China rally, you know might reverse a little bit
I know it's only been a two-day rally, but if we got to November and Trump would win, you know
That might be a take profit if this China rally continues and we can talk about what's going on overseas
Same thing with Taiwan and then multinationals as well
The US dollar would also be a short because unlike Haley
Also, you know, Trump is very aggressive when it comes to tax cuts
And you know, he would also I think increase the deficit but in a different way through tax cuts
and that would be negative for the US dollar and
You'd also be you would also be short US Treasury
So both Biden and Trump would increase the deficit my opinion and then you would also you know, because Trump is pro America
You would also potentially
Short Japan and short green energy and then on the Haley Haley side, you know, she is very anti-green energy
So if Haley were to be the Republican candidate you would you know short a lot of the solar wind names
You know, there is a consensus amongst Wall Street that she would be the best for the market
So, you know potentially short the VIX long equity
Long China because she isn't as strong what I'm sorry short China because because she's also
She's not as strong as Trump, but she's also pro tariff and short cannabis because she's anti
Anti-cannabis, so that's kind of like a you know frame and then you know a couple other things, you know if Haley were to win
The market believes, you know, pharma would do well and oil and gas would do well
And she would be the best of the three candidates for US treasuries and the US dollar
And you know, this isn't necessarily even my opinion. It's kind of you know
How consensus has been set up into my conversations with institutions and edge funds
So, you know, hopefully that answers your question on the you know, presidential election
you know, let's go back to you know earnings and
We can discuss, you know a handful of companies reported today just after the close and one of the best themes in the fourth quarter
The best ways to make money, you know was to be contrarian and to go long
The anti GLP one names, right? So for people who don't know, you know GLP one drugs glucagon
You know drugs they what they do is they slow down digestion in the small intestine
by increasing the secretion of insulin and it makes you less hungry and
Because it makes you less hungry you lose weight very quickly, right? And there are a number of these drugs, you know
They're right now. They're primarily manufactured by
You know right now like Manjaro and and you know a number of these drugs
Are proliferating their supply shortages last year and the proliferating across the US and the US they're like 19 million severe obese people
So like with BMI is over 40 and the obese, you know obese people. I think it's like 70 80 million, right?
It's a huge percentage of the population
Primary candidates for this drug who can get insurance reimbursement or either severely obese or have you know, diabetes or another condition
Where whereby they can get a prescription if they can't get a prescription, you know, if they pay out of pocket it can be
$1,200 a month. So last year when these drugs were proliferating and demand was going up a lot of names like Abbott intuitive surgical names
That were related to bariatric surgery and names that you know related to medical devices and died diabetes
Diabetes drugs like those names sold off dramatically and I thought it was very naive for the market to
Assume that you know, all these companies are going to go to zero
Some of them were down 50% and I think it was hedge fund shorting these names and then going long and VO and lly
So one of the best trades last year was to reverse
The you know those hedge fund shorts and to go long names like Abbott and to go long names like intuitive surgical
And you know, we actually sold, you know, we kept Abbott but we sold our intuitive surgical
But you know, I think that they have absolutely crushed it
I think they made all-time highs and they're up after hours. They're I think they're up five six percent after hours after they submitted
An application for their their next generation platform called DaVinci five
We also saw Netflix right report after hours, right? Netflix has done really well because they're you know
They've cut on really hard on password sharing and that has increased, you know, the you know revenue
You know per household and they've also created a new tier of
An advertisement subscription. That's a lower cost. So they've been able to
sustain the number of subscribers and continue to grow internationally and
You know, they've also cut back on content spend
that you know has increased the free cash flow per share at the company and they've continued to outperform since 2022 an
Interesting thing that Netflix did today was they actually did a deal with TKO, which is a combination of the UFC and the WWE
It is one of our positions, you know TKO I
Adult males, you know watch WWE or UFC mostly UFC that compares to like 17%
Major League Baseball and 30% NFL
So as you know the trade going into that we we signed into last year
Was we accumulated TKO because we thought when their rights renewals were to come up, you know sports unlike other
You know TV content. It's still high in demand and this has the most millennial eyeballs on it
And you know lo and behold, you know Netflix did a five billion dollar deal today
For WWE UFC content and it was done at a price, you know backing in to you know
Roughly on what they paid at a 50% increase versus their prior content deal
So TKO was up, you know, like 20 22 23 percent, you know
I think we sold our entire position at 93 and then by the end of the day
Like 2 o'clock it actually fell back to 87 because the market was weak
We actually bought back a fourth of the position. We call it a round trip. So inter interdrate
Trade we captured $6 and we bought it back at 87
I think it's it's it's still an interesting name
They have some other renewals that are gonna happen by 2026
And then we had, you know, Texas Instruments, right?
So not all you know every company beat, you know, Texas Instruments reported after the close and stock was down 4%
They gave a disappointing quarterly forecast and a slump in demand for industrial and automotive
Electronic components the other automotive
Companies out there in the semi-spacer NXP and on semiconductor
So based on you know, the segment of Texas Instruments that auto segment not doing as well
I would have an eye on NXP and on and see, you know, potentially maybe they miss as well because what we've noticed
You know on our research team is that auto demand is falling off a cliff
Especially in Europe. I think auto demand is down 8%
You know, I think Tesla even cited, you know, the Red Sea issues and we talked about the Red Sea
But they cited the Red Sea issues as a reason to shut down the Berlin plant in reality
I think it was an excuse I think demand
For for EVs and ICE vehicles
You know has temporarily peaked and that doesn't mean their vehicle numbers may not go up next year. It's the the growth in demand
Has peaked so, you know the deliveries at 25% per year
For example on the EV side, you know, maybe that growth rate for 2024
It's still grows but you know, it goes from the peak of 25% growth. Maybe grows at 10 or 15
So I think the market's just you know, too bullish on has been too bullish on autos
You've seen, you know, Mannheim use car prices and new car prices come down across every company from Stellantis
Right to Tesla to GM and Ford
Across various brands, right G brand for you know, f-1 50
The setup going into you know, the semiconductors that are supposed to autos like in the long term, they may still do very well
But in the short term, right there might be some hiccups
In that demand profile, so we're just keeping our ears pricked up
We see negative news for either an XP or on
You know going back to the earnings and you know valuation, right?
I think the S&P 500 has gone up like 11 out of 12 weeks, you know
So I think we talked about in the last call, you know since the Treasury QRA in October 27th
We had the biggest rally in the Lehman aggregate bond index since 1985
Like that's not a that's that's a big thing, right?
So you had credit risk spreads high yield spreads come in very sharply
I G spreads come in EM bond spreads emerging market bond spreads come in as a US dollar fell
As people thought rates were peaking and we had a little bit of pullback this year, but you know
Every dip has been bought
You know even on days where you know yields jump, you know, the market has been bought
So it's been very interesting today's today was an exception
And then on the other side of the world, you know, we have been a little bit confrarian
And in addition to buying, you know, good fundamental companies in the US like TKO
We're also looking at you know for the first time in many years
Looking at Asia and looking at names like Alibaba
Baidu and just sizing them, you know in in in a reasonable way, you know at half
You know half a percent per per position and also, you know buying k-web calls
You know positioning for a Chinese stimulus and you know
I think five days ago was the first time we had published on on Baba and
The timing was pretty good because five, you know, it's on my timeline five days after we published, you know
They gee which when we thought he would come out with something came out with
278 billion stimulus now, it's not a you know, an infrastructure stimulus or a real estate focused stimulus, you know
They're they're hedge funds that are going going, you know bankrupt in China
You know, there's a story was really sad story about a Singaporean hedge fund
That was long Chinese stock short Japan and both sides of the trade didn't work
So this guy was down through the first half of January is down 19% and he had a 30-year track record
he was trading since the 90s and blew himself up and
You know, I think regulators are starting to look at this and say thing like hey
You know, we can't have the market in free fall
There's a group of companies in China called the SOE
You know state-sponsored enterprises, right? Those companies are like Petro China
They have a lot of cash that is offshore that is not in the mainland, you know upwards of
278 billion dollars and that you know at a seven exchange ratio is about two trillion right back of the envelope math
They have two trillion RMB you want whatever you want to call it that in this this is going to be determined at 1500 hours
Tonight or Wednesday afternoon in China. They're going to meet about this program
In addition to this program, right?
They've done a lot of other things like, you know reserve rate cuts and you know supporting local banks and provincial debt
So, yeah, I think based on the our Asia analyst
I think the the Chinese government has done
127 stimulative measures in the last years people haven't been focused on it
Like we've been negative on China since December of 22 and they have been doing things to support the economy
But they've been doing them very piecemeal unlike the u.s
Where you have helicopter money in China because they don't have to worry as much about elections. She's essentially an authoritarian dictator
He's probably not happy. I'm saying that but you know, they planned five ten years out and as a result
They've been doing a lot of these small measures so they don't blow and you know, create too much money, right?
And then create inflation Chinese ppi has actually been negative, you know negative 2.5 percent and now they feel okay
So that resulted in you know, the fxi the k-web, you know
a number of tech companies ba ba ba do
And even some of the more speculative companies like neo that we are not involved in
Rally, you know, they were rallied five six seven percent pre-market. There's also gaming companies like tencent and netties
You know the gaming regulator cracked down for like the 14th time, right?
They're trying to control the number of hours that their children can play games
I think that's very reasonable in china
They they control your exposure to tick tock and a lot of the content on tick tock is educational and they also control
The amount of time you spend on video games
You know, they they allow us, you know young youth to blow their minds and spend hours and hours on tick tock
but they control it for their own people, which is interesting and
You know that has pressured the revenue growth of names like tencent and netties and then next
You know this next round of regulations was going to be strict
And so those names had sold off to like 15 year lows on valuation not on price
So what ended up happening was you know on the website where they have those regulations
They they removed the regulations and they basically said that on the 22nd of january they're going to meet with
Industry executives to determine, you know, what's fair and what's not
Right, because I think that you know
The game companies and the educate online education companies are very large part of the tech index in china
The hanksang tech index and as a result, they don't want those names to continue to to sell off
You know, we're at a point in time, you know
And keep in mind that when you own some of these companies right there
You don't actually own the underlying equity certificates, right?
You essentially own the right to own those certificates and some people will look at the vi e structure and say oh
You don't really own the stock but in reality, you know, what do we really own? It's all paper and it's all about confidence
So is the chinese government?
All of a sudden in my opinion. I think you can have that small exposure because is the chinese government all of a sudden going to
Say hey, you don't own any of this equity
And completely destroy their capital markets. Obviously not if they were going to do that
They wouldn't be taking 278 billion dollars of good cash. That's offshore in their own. Soe is their state sponsored entities
They wouldn't be putting it in the stock market
So just using a little bit of common sense there again, anything is possible
But you know some of these companies, you know, we're doing some analysis right on baba
It's trading at like three times even though and when you look at investments
It was trading even cheaper like jd for example has like starting at 23. Now. This is on a us adr conversion
It has like 16 of investments in cash
And three dollars of forward eps now, I think they'll miss their eps
But even if they do let's say it's 250 on a net basis before today's events
You're buying it for five dollars net of cash and investments on two and a half dollars of forward eps
You're buying it two times earnings
Right. That's like worse than like a yellow, you know
Where yellow pages used to trade at like the worst coal companies used to trade at so it kind of just puts it in perspective, right?
People were kind of pricing these names
You know to go to zero and in reality, you know
Even looking at cleaner metrics and excluding all the you know, forget all the investments looking at pea ratios
You know names like baba were trading at seven times earnings
JD was trading at eight times earnings and bidu was trading at 10 times earnings prior to today's announcement
And those are you know, pretty low prices in terms of a price to book ratio
A number of these companies were trading at price to book ratio has not seen since 1991
Right, I guess book values have grown and it's a valuation metric not a price
So, you know, there's a lot of really interesting stuff going on right and in the u.s
Like the rsp, you know the equal weighted
S&P 500 index, you know from jan 1 to today is actually slightly negative
And you know people have this feeling that everything's going up
Because a lot of the large cap stocks mag 7 names continue to rally and we did see a rotation
In from october 27th to december where the russell did incredibly well, you know
I don't I had a number of you know mid cap names that you know blew my expectations out of the water
On a price action perspective and a lot of that that rotation has kind of slowed down
But you know, hopefully, you know, if we if we are in a soft landing environment
We could see that I think that trend come back
I think people are cautious going into earning season because they don't really know what to expect. So let's do, you know, a quick full circle
Um, well, uh, how many minutes do I have left here? I think you said 45
Oh, yeah, we're good on time. We go to 30
So, you know going back to earnings and you know, you guys can interrupt me and ask any questions
You know my whole day is like talking to clients
So sometimes i'll speak and if it's not relevant to you
Just tell me to shut up, uh, or if you have a question, you know
Just ask just ask in the middle because I can go on forever. So, you know looking at
Um the earnings, you know an interesting thing to note
Um is profit margins and I had a call with a large, you know
I would say like a 15 billion dollar organization today
You know i'll post a graph. I think there's already a graph in my tablet about this
But the net profit margin, which is net income over revenue
The lowest print was in q2 of 2020 during covid that was 8.5 during that period
And the next lowest print was in 1q 2020. That was 9.2 percent. That was also due to covid
Looking at 4 8 12 16, you know over 22 quarters, you know, we since 2018
We are at the lowest net profit margin for the 12 of companies that were reported year to date
You know if you extrapolate it then we have been
Outside of covid we're at a 10.7 percent. This is from faxa. Everyone can google it and look it up
What I am a little bit concerned about and I think why this street is not bidding up a lot of the mid cap and small caps is
You know a lot of the momentum in earnings, you know, third quarter is pretty good because gdp growth was 4.9
You know atlanta fed gdp now, I think is 2.4
But you know what's happening with some companies is that their wages are catching up and there's their top line is slowing down
And like I think I said this in the last call on the call before that, you know margins are going to come down
And right now I think the street has margins recovering
In the second half of this year, you know back to you know, 11 12 percent, but that's that's really not guaranteed
It's just I think it's just a guess the only way you get to 12 percent in my opinion
Is if you lay off hundreds of thousands of people
Right your operating margins and cutting your sgna
And by the way, that's what you know what we're seeing, you know every day
We are seeing new layoff announcements and the positive thing has been at least for most of last year
You know a lot of those layoffs people were able to find jobs within two months, especially, you know engineers and service workers and you know
People with you know master's degrees
Um, but just now I think like 10 minutes ago sap
Uh announced, you know, they're one of the largest
Um software companies in the world
They announced that they're firing 8 000 people right every three four hours. They see a headline like that and
If you look at the jolts ray right now, it says there's 1.8 jobs for every one person looking at some point
That number is going to come down and the the unemployment is going to go up now
It's taken a lot longer than people have thought and if it doesn't really go up past five percent
It may not be that bad for the market, right?
Um, the other the other thing I wanted to talk about
Outside of earnings and unemployment and we'll go back to earnings in a minute by sector
Um was you know the rate expectations and one of the reasons why?
Um, the back end of the curve has been so low and it has bounced about about 30 bips
We sold most, you know, most of our long bond position almost perfectly and you know bonds sold off
You know yields went up 30 bips on a 17 20 year duration
You know, we talk about this on our discord calls and on our website
Um, you know, you you've had bonds, you know fall like five five six points
So we avoided that and we also sold our our mortgage exposure that we talked about, uh two sessions ago
But you know an interesting thing to note is that as of january
The market was pricing in
Almost a 100 probability of a march rate cut just kind of funny, right?
Like it seems so bold to me
Um, but that was the reality and as of last night
Um, if you look at the work function or if you go to cme futures and you look at the fed expectations
Um, the market was pricing in only a 49 percent probability of a march cut. My view is we won't have a march cut
You know, the data really isn't that bad
And you know for that reason I don't expect
Um any cut in march and I frankly don't expect cuts
Till the summer and you know, it's different in europe where the economy is slowing down much faster
And I think they might have a cut as soon as april or may
You know when you think about
What's going on, you know?
As that as that repricing has happened, you know bond yields have gone up historically
You would see tech stocks under pressure
But what's happened is the market is still pricing in 133 basis points of cuts this year
roughly between five and six cuts
And down from seven and the market is looking past yields going up and they're saying okay
Yields might be going up in the short term
But we're still going to go buy tech stocks because they're not going to go up too much
And you know, that's essentially why the correlation between bonds and tech stocks is not you don't see that inverse correlation
And you're seeing a decoupling
You know between rates and equities this year, which which I think is very interesting
Front, you know, we're gonna get two bits of information. You know inflation has been falling pretty
consistently partially because of
You know the fact that it it is a
Construct of a year-of-a-year
Basket of goods and over time right it's a change in the price of the basket of goods not the absolute price
So over time as the price of goods the growth has slowed down especially with goods versus services
Inflation has been coming down on the other side
You also have oer which is owner to occupy owner's equivalent rent
And that essentially is like a 12-month lag indicator on rents and real estate prices as those prices have have slowed
And car prices have come down and gasoline prices. I think in november or december hit, you know year to date lows
You know that put pressure on the inflation metrics and the pce and our last reading was about 2.6 percent, right?
So kind of 60 basis points from where the fed wants it the core was around three and a half
But I think that will come down over time as well
Um, so this week, you know, we're getting some relevant data on thursday
We're getting 4q gdp and then the personal income and spending report
We're also as part of the 4q gdp. We're going to get
Pce estimates and you know, I think the estimates have come down from 2.3 to 2
Um for that and then when it comes to you know politics
We'll spend a couple minutes on what what exactly happened overnight, you know
Um, basically vivek dropped out the interesting thing about ramaswami
Is that I think one of the main reasons he was running and you can you guys can all look at look this up in
The 13f, you know, this guy owns half a billion dollars of a stock called roivant
It is a biotech. It's a very interesting name
It has about ten dollars a share of cash and investments
They're selling telavant to rosh and they own, you know immune event, which is about you know, four and a half dollars a share of value
You know the interesting thing just like gary cone of goldman hank paulson of goldman and rex tillerson
Who became treasury secretary from exxon?
You know george bush had passed a law that if you worked in the cabinet or an executive branch
That you could defer your capital gains basically indefinitely, right as long as you worked in in that area and
You could replace the way you could do it is you could replace your stock
With an equivalency like an index and if you did that you could defer your capital gains indefinitely now
That's worth if you're a billionaire like gary cone almost or you know, half a billion you have worth over half a billion
You know everyone thinks he's doing this out of the goodness of his heart and he's funding his campaign on his own
But he's spending 13 million right to save 200 million, right? So that's you know
And I hope i'm wrong, but you know, I think it's a logical thing
So I think he he might still have a government position after all, you know
He'll probably appeal to trump for a secretary position or something
I don't think trump will want someone as eloquent as him as a vp
He dropped out and is probably likely going to want to continue in some government position so he can defer his taxes
And that's just an opinion. It's you know, it's not fact because only he can tell you if it's fact
And you know on the other side you had, you know, mr. High heels, um governor of
You had desantis drop out and he had you know, very strong falling I think last year
But you know a couple he had a couple missteps and just his lack of affability
And you know just lack of a friendly demeanor. I think when it comes to the general public
Um, and as some of his answers to questions and debates were were suboptimal. So he dropped out as well and
Going into this, you know, new hampshire
You know event, you know haley had about 36 percent
Of you know, the polls and uh trump had you know about 50 percent
So, you know, that's an interesting setup. I think we'll find out what happened with new hampshire after 7 p.m
I'm not a i'm not an economist or a political expert. So this is just a very high level and then on the ecb
Um, so the bank of japan at its meeting is essentially non-event the ecb
You know, their lending survey is out and you know, that's supposed to be a non-event as well
I don't think that they're going to cut till april or may
Um, and then we had, you know a large rally in the asian markets that I touched on
Um in hike odds, we'll talk about hike odds in a second in europe. We talked about the us. We have 133
Uh basis points of cuts price
but one of the reasons why the european stocks have been rallying and trying to catch up to us stocks is that
The europe, you know, there is a there is an ecb cut
Um that is being priced in already for april and that probability is going higher
So that's an interesting thing to keep your eye on
Um, and just for you know, the rest of the week
um, you know for the 24th
In the 20, you know quickly for the for the 24th
We have the us uk japan germany france and eurozone january pmis
Which are diffusion index purchasing manager index is the leading indicator. You look at manufacturing and services
It tells you, you know how confident managers are in their growth prospects and it's broken up into employment inventories, you know, etc
Uh, I think their decision is tomorrow and the big day tomorrow. We have tesla earnings
ASML a lithography company one of the best
Semiconductor companies in the world in my opinion
Um, you know, it's rallied from 500 to 750. We were interested in the 500 area and we're no longer involved
But you know at some point it'll be by again
Abbott labs, right which was the contrarian, you know, we had that whole like bariatric
Insulin, you know the contrarian glp1 trade right there reporting
Um, we might trim out of it before they report but that that was uh, that's been a really good trade for us
Um sap which just said they're laying off 8 000 people sadly ibm service now is a big company for tomorrow
Atnt, uh, which we flipped long on preps and equity because we thought the lead
You know the w the wall street journal lead issue was just completely completely bogus
csx freeport mac and one of the biggest copper companies in the world if china does do a copper
A stimulus, you know, there might be some copper support and I think you know copper can rally to like 10 000
And I think you know it can stay there because we are in a copper deficit because one of the biggest mines in the world
The cobra panama mine, uh has been shut down and that's owned by a company called
Is a canadian company and it's one of the biggest mines in the world because it was shut down
When you think about copper wire because we're going to internet of things and electric cars and everything over the long term
Not necessarily near term, but in the long term copper demand is going to go bonkers
And with there's no new supply of copper coming online
So, you know what we're trying to do is like we're trying to pick our spots, you know build it
You know, we have we have some exposure to copper
Um, uh within our research, you know one of the cheaper companies it's a special situation
And I think it's an interesting space to do a little bit of work
And tomorrow we also have a the two-year frn option a big auction 28 billion and five-year note option 61 billion
Be interested in see, you know, what demand is for u.s
Treasury is given we have a two trillion dollar deficit
It's a seven percent deficit
The largest non-war non-pandemic deficit in history in the u.s because of all the spending
And so, you know, there's like 4.9 billion in additional student loan forgiveness
We're almost at 140 billion some of that, you know, I think was right, you know for teachers and people who are struggling
Um, I don't want to give any political views, you know, but I do think that if you have a debt you should honor it
um, so there's been a lot of just
immediate creation of debt by this administration because it's a voting year and it's been
Some of it's justified some of it's not
And like every government is going to spend at this point in america whether you're republican or your democrat either cut taxes are spent
Everybody just blows money and now we have a 35 trillion dollar debt loaded and you know
If we don't worry about it, eventually, you know, we're gonna have to cut social security benefits
Spending and I don't know the only way really out of it is printing right?
Which is what all the bitcoin guys and gold guys believe guys and gals
You know, my view is that I think you'll have to have above two percent inflation
Um, you know, you know at three percent, you know every three years, you know, you're cutting your debt by by ten percent
That's the inflation tax right in addition to uh, an income tax and a corporate tax
This is a big issue that we'll come back to in another in another discussion our deficit and then on thursday
We have four qgdp the pce
We have january kansas city fed manufacturing activity december durable goods orders which are important because they show the sickle strength of the economy
New home sales home sales have been pretty strong
Missed earnings for the first time in several quarters and the stock was down like 15 percent and it pulled down polte
Which you saw today after hours probably by about five six percent as well
You know home builders have rallied having historically home builders when rates are going up to underperform, but this time
rates have gone up so quickly that there's a bid ask where because people are have locked in their mortgages
And they they want to sell their homes at you know, they don't want to take big haircuts from 2021 prices
There are not a lot of homes on the market
Um from these home builders like from the luxury end from toll brothers all the way to the lower end to beezer
These home builders have been selling homes at like 30 gross profit margins like big big, you know
Historically high margins they paid off their debt
As a result these guys have been printing money and they've been attracting people by giving them like one two percent
Mortgage concessions. They'll say hey for the first two years. We'll pay you. We'll give you a subsidy on your mortgage
So a lot of people, you know in in rich areas like north jersey, right?
They're buying toll brothers homes in places like austin, right? They're buying
You know lower cost per square foot, you know starter homes
From the other home builders and it's been this contrarian trade, right people who are short have been completely crushed
But this is a first quarter. You saw a really big mess from dhi
I want to see how all the other home builders are going to do and might even
You know, it might be too early to do a short, but it's it's just very interesting
This perceived miss was on the home builder side
You know if you guys want to follow anything that we're doing, you know, go to specialist. It's research.com
You know if you jump to you know, even our basic plan is only 20 bucks, you know, we send out updates
You know multiple times per week
On the macro side and we also publish models
Like we just sent out models on both jd and baba some of the parts showing like what we think the value is
What free cash flow is what earnings multiples are what historical financials are what our forecasts are?
And we also look at event driven trades like merger arbitrage spin-off split-offs and high income high dividend stocks and prefs
You know, we have a portfolio of anything for you know goes from 6 to 12 dividends
You know on the 25th, you know
The other important data that we're going to look at is retail inventories the chicago fed net national activity index
Which will be important right jobless claims were low in the last range. They're like 187
I think versus 210 based on my memory and bond yields went up and I was surprised
You know the market sold off a little bit, but then you know following day that friday. It just ripped like people don't care
about higher for longer and
You know, you'll need a pretty
You know a pretty you know pretty like a three four standard deviation initial jobless claim. I think for the market to get scared
January tokyo cpi. We also are going to see december ppi services
Germany in january iphos survey that basically their business confidence is coming out on thursday
Brants q4 total job seekers is coming out on thursday. And then we have the ecb decision
And you'll get the boj minutes from the december meeting as well on thursday and with earnings on thursday huge day
Verizon numbers are pretty good. They added two million subs today. That was that was it. You know, that was a good bounce, right?
Union pacific blackstone, right is is reporting next year energy kla
Northrop grumman on the defense side sk heineck's valero, which is the biggest refiner in the us st micro and nokia are reporting
Then we have a huge seven notes option on uh, so if you're long bonds, be very careful thursday
We have a seven-year option. So 41 billion dollar option
So keep an eye on that and then friday the 26th
We have december personal spending and income pce deflator pending homestales
The kansas city fed services activity index
So, you know what what i'm going to summarize here is you know
The economic data at the end of the week is going to be very important
We haven't had a lot of economic data in the first half of this week
So this the second half of the week is very important because you're going to have big companies like tesla and visa reporting
But you're also going to have a lot of economic data coming at you the next three or four weeks are going to be extremely
You're taking a step back, you know at a hundred thousand foot view, you know, this has been the second best start
24 years, um, this has been the best start for qqq minus iwm
So, you know that old trade the first half of 2023 trade has been back
You know when you look at the flows, you know talk about flows for a second
The smp 500 last week hit hit an all-time high
But the last all-time high in the smp 500 was on january 3rd 2020
And since then, you know, we just hit a new all-time high
So we're you know theoretically on a technical basis back into a bull market
Um in 20 years of tracking, you know fun flows
You know, I was reading a piece from like the tactical strategist
At goldman and what he was saying is that he has never seen a bull market where there's so much macro bearishness, right?
So what what they call the pain trade right in hedge fund speak the pain trade is up because so many people are bearish
As real money, you know incrementally puts cash to work, right all the all the fast money guys the cta's and the hedge funds
Are forced to cover their positions and it's been you know
Their hedge fund performance last year was terrible. It was one of the worst years in hedge fund performance since 2008
Because you know, they couldn't make sense out of what was happening
Um, a lot of them couldn't um, so, you know a couple other things on flows, you know money market funds
Have seen the best start to the year on record with 163 billion of inflows now
A lot of that is from banks because you know, a lot of bank deposits right like chase and bfa
They're paying you nothing on your checking and people think oh, they're pulling money out of stocks and putting it into money markets
No, that's not what happened. What's happening in reality
There's a misperception like with all the cmbc talking heads the money markets represent cash coming out of banks
So there's a lot of cash in the sidelines
But not all that money and money markets is going to come into equities
right what people are doing is they're taking their m1 m2 deposits and they're taking their check-ins and savings and they're
They realize they can make four or five percent in something like a goldman sachs markets
Right or an american express savings or any one of these online only banks, right where you don't have an atm
They have lower cost structure. You can earn four or five percent. Why wouldn't you do that?
Um, and you can even and most people like on trob fidelity interact brokers
You can buy money markets in your brokerage account and earn five percent
So that's you know, that's what's happening
You know, I think on bloomberg cmbc, you know, whatever publications you guys are reading reading, you know
Yes, there is a lot of cash on the sidelines private equity cash, you know cash and mutual funds money markets, etc
But the majority of money market cash is from banks. So we saw the highest quarter since 2007
Um, the next highest quarter was during the banking crisis in 2023
So 121 billion we had a hundred and sixty three billion dollars
Um go into money markets. Um, sorry, this was for the 2024. This is the annual data
So we had 2023 121 billion and 163 billion so far for for 2024 for this week
Um, so annual data for the week
So huge and then cumulative in inflows and outflows for equity tfs
We have been flat. So there's been no new money coming into equities there
There is a divergence between em and and growth like there is money going into em
There's less going into developed markets
For the year to date period through january 10th, and this was the same for money markets
So forgive me on on this lack of clarity, but from jan 1 to jan 10
Um on a year-over-year basis, right? We saw 163 billion going to money markets, but only 1 billion going to stocks
So this is really a pain trade where you know, they're guys pulling money out
And they're they're investors, you know using the cash they have to buy stocks and a lot of a lot
There's been a lot of short covering
Bond inflows have been positive. So for two years in a row
We saw 24 billion for the first 10 days of the year on a year-over-year basis
In 2023 and 25 billion of bond inflows in 2024
Um, you know january tends to be very you know in terms of comes to inflows and outflows because it's a new year
It tends to be very volatile
And you know if you look at now, let's talk about the percentage of companies reporting by week
So this is important data for you guys for the rest of earning season
Um, so across, you know, the major smp 500 sectors communication services discretionary staples energy financials healthcare
industrials infotech materials real estate and utilities
Um, i'm going to go through which you know, what percentage of companies reporting by week
Um for the smp 500 as a whole let's start with that
Um, you know, we're in the third week of earnings
You know this this week is going to be a huge week. I think 23 of smp 500 companies are reporting this week
You know today, you know, I agree with wolf between today and the end of the week, right?
That is effective effectively, you know the first quarter of earning season
Um outside of the banks the next week is a is the biggest week of earning season of the quarter
32 of companies are reporting next week
So if you're focused on the market you're doing this full-time like you should be you know
Taking that week and just focusing on your work huge huge week
The following week feb fifth to feb ninth is 12 of companies and then feb 12 to feb 16 to 6 of companies
And for sake of time, I won't do it by sector
But if you guys want the graphic it send it to or post it after this
And you know some other things to know
You know the market one of the things that i'm the reason why you know
I'm a little bit cautious and we've added to our equity longs when we've just been buying things that have been selling off, right?
I'm a contrarian. So I buy things that I buy names after they've sold off, right like
One recent name that sold off is a competitor to bunki right called adm
It's an agricultural company and they're suffering from a surplus of soybean
Uh supply even the demand is okay, and they make money on the soybean crush
So they you know, they take soybeans and they flatten them out and they take soybean oil and meal meal
They'll feed to animals and soybean oil they'll sell
And you know that crush is coming down and they had you know, some it looks like it's a minor accounting issue
But the stock fell like 25 in a day, right and it became a you know, a value name
It was trading at six times. We took a micro like a tracking position. We're doing more work on it
So, you know my style is to look at things that have self sold off
Like the contrarian gop names like abbot that sold off in the fourth quarter
But you could have bought names, you know at 11 12 times earnings while the rest of the market was ripping
And you know generated alpha. So one thing that I noticed, you know this year is that
You know a lot of names have been supported because wall street consensus estimates. Oh wolf. You have your hand raised
Oh, yeah, I just want to give you a heads up. We got about three minutes here
Uh, do we want to leave some time for questions?
Time flies when you're at the uj
I'm, not sure we'll have too much time for questions on this one
But I know that we're getting to the thick of earnings season. I know your background. Are you good?
I wanted to do these once every week once every two weeks. Yeah, let's do that
We could set it up with some more questions
I did want to let everyone know that you briefly mentioned it
But jay has some great services that everybody should be checking out if you've been enjoying this past hour
One you can go in right to the link in his bio and it has all different levels
If you're looking to spend you can spend if you're looking to just get entry level you get entry level
There's everything there. You can also subscribe to him directly on x shout out jay for hitting 100k followers as well. Congratulations
Oh, thanks. I didn't even notice that yeah, nice little clean 100k you got going there
Well, you know, thanks for that. You know, one thing to note is that you know, we're very fair with information dissemination
Everybody who is, you know a subscriber on the website right on specialist research.com gets the same
Research content. It's just a level of detail that is different, right?
So, you know, if you are an institutional client, you know, like a big hedge fund like millennium, you know
You'll have one-on-one calls with people on our team
Um, and you'll get you know, our notes and and everything right our detail models
Um, if you're on the basic list, you'll still get, you know, one long memo
And a model sometimes two three models a month
But there'll be short, you know shorter form right the email will be shorter, you know
You won't have the call associated with it the one-on-one call
Um, and you won't have access to our 1300 trader community and discord where people should share their own ideas
You know, they're individuals with net worths anywhere from you know
Less than 1 000 all the way to people with personal trading accounts of three four hundred million in the group
So anything above, you know the discord level and above 45 plus, you know silver included income included
They get access to the group and then you know, everything else is institutional
I don't know if there are any institutional guys on the call
But you know if they are it's better off emailing me. I won't spend time talking about it
But everyone gets the same actual
You know exposure to ideas across income equities
Um, but depending on the plan that you pick it'll focus on the category that you're aligned with
Um, but if you're in the income category and in institutions in the income category, you're gonna get the same stuff, right?
So from that perspective, it's really great because somebody you know on our website could be spending
20 30k a month and you could be spending 20 a month and if we publish something right on baidu for example
You both are gonna get it different levels of detail, but the timing is gonna be the same so it's really valuable
Jay, I gotta move over to the next one here. You got any other final comments you want to share?
You are always a wealth of knowledge. We had the notebooks out. I mean, this was a fantastic hour
And uh, you know, it's reflected in the comments and the audience and everything
Any other comments you want to share on this one and we'll make sure you get you back on soon
Happy to do it, you know a couple comments, you know
Think about the elections think about you know
One of our themes is you know, we have a number of of trades that you know are gonna that have
Asymmetric upside depending on you know, which candidate wins the election
There are a lot of really interesting trades that are political this year that you could actually do
Um that you know may not be mainstream ideas, right?
They might be boring companies that people aren't talking about whether it's defense or in marijuana
Or in private prisons or in green energy or in you know
Um, there are a lot of really interesting setups
Um, so I would think about that and just start creating a list of categories
Sorry, that must have been someone else it wasn't me go for it jay
Jay you just got to unmute. Sorry someone tap the button
Oh, okay. No problem. The other thing I would keep in mind
You know pairing back a little bit of risk
runt of this earning season, um
Because we have seen a lot of companies, you know are sell the news events
Um, I do think that you know, i'm cautious and I think outlooks are going to be lower
My view is that this quarter might be the lowest margin quarter of the last 22 quarters
That doesn't mean you you won't be able to find cheap companies that sell off after earnings
But my strategy has been look at the companies that have a bit sold off after earnings
You're looking at companies in this earning season instead of buying companies that you think can rally 20% after earnings
You know based on what happened in the last quarter
Um, and what I think could happen this quarter, you know
Wait for companies to sell off a little bit and then start a position and a new name
So those are two things, you know focus on some of the political trades and themes
You know have a good amount of cash handy and you know
Try to deploy in good companies after they slightly miss earnings like that strategy has been working for me so far
And um, you know, we'll see how it plays out for the rest of the year
It's more of a trading strategy right for long-term investing, right? We have a different outlook different outlook
We try to have really cheap stuff and hold it for a year or two
Um, so, you know have a good night guys and thank you
Wolf for hosting this, you know, love to hear
You guys talk and share your ideas and you know, hopefully someone
In this uh audience learn something and you know, it'll help them in the future
Perfect. Jay always a pleasure having you on
Let's aim tentatively for february 6. That's two weeks from today same time. Yeah, let's do it
Perfect. We'll get through a lot of earnings before then. All right, beautiful
Everybody make sure that you are following jay
Um, I have been for years at this point. I recommend you do so as well
Okay. Thank you to jay as well as genauts jordan nate evan. Everybody that has been up here throughout the space
It's been a pleasure having you all on we've got one more space tonight
It is a different topic. It's me talking about credit and lending and some other areas
Um, i'm excited to get into it with the team over here from zyvo. We also have lady trader up on stage
We might have a few more people that could be joining up with us as well
It's gonna be an interesting one. I think that people are going to like this
We've done three spaces already with the zyvo crew. They've been very popular
So the overall topic here to kind of roll us into this is going to be disrupting high interest predatory blending
Right now I see dave coming up on stage and I see crystal coming up on stage. Perfect. Perfect. Perfect
Now we are actually all good to go and to get into this
Okay, so just to roll us into this we've got the team behind zyvo
That's a credit protocol designed to disrupt predatory high interest consumer lending coming up on here
We've got dennis crystal and thor as well as a couple other people that are on the panel with us
Let's start out by turning it over to
Let's go to uh, dennis first introduce yourself and then we'll hit crystal and thor
Hey, hey wolf. How are you doing? Uh, thanks for having us back in the spaces. I'm dennis
I'm the head of product at zyvo and uh, yeah, we get a good topic today. We're going to be talking about high interest lending
It's a topic that's very important to our team at zyvo. We're going to tell you what it is why it exists
How we're disrupting the industry and also how you
Uh, everybody in the audience can be a part of that disruption as well. So excited to get into it
I hope everyone is having a wonderful night evening morning wherever you're at in the world and that everyone is doing amazing
We appreciate everyone showing up and thank you wolf for always being such a gracious host
chief comedian, however, you want to call me but um, no, we're super excited to talk to you about um, high interest lending in the consumer
regulatory space consumer lending space
So thank you so much for everyone for the time and we'll talk a little bit more about ourselves as we evolve through the space
Yeah, hey wolf always a pleasure my name is thor and I am one of the
Uh other co-founders of zyvo
Always a pleasure to be up here with you guys and wolf you're a machine man
You've been doing uh, you know spaces all day and they're always great
They're always super informative
So, you know for those who maybe just tuning in for the first time would definitely recommend you uh, join them on some of wolf spaces
So with that being said let's uh get to it. We're excited to be here today
I pinned in a couple of posts at the top of the space
But if y'all want to pin some more feel free to go ahead and do so as we talk about this
And uh, thank you for introducing yourselves
We're going to start off high level here for those that are unfamiliar high interest predatory lending is a massive problem in today's ecosystem
Especially for all my finance peeps out there
So let's talk about it. Uh denis at a high level for those not familiar
Could you explain what a personal loan is and how it works? Yeah, great question
Um, actually before we get into personal loans, let me let me take a step back
Let me explain what predatory the predatory lending market is and then i'll explain the role of
personal loans within that so
Um when we're talking about high interest lending
It's exactly what it sounds like we are talking about companies that are giving out loans to people
At interest rates that are far above
What you and I might get at a bank in some markets like the u.s
You could see rates as high as the triple digits up to 300 percent and abroad that could be even higher
um, and the reason that these loans exist is because there's
Many people for many people getting a bank loan is actually hard. It's not the easiest thing to do banks turn a lot of people away
They're very conservative when it comes to credit risk. And so anybody that has maybe poor to little to no credit
Maybe they're just coming to a country. They're immigrating. They they're starting their credit history
From scratch their their only option is really to borrow from alternative lenders or high interest lenders
This is our products like payday loans cash checking services and increasingly personal loans
Um, which has become really really popular among the sort of underbanked community
Um, so so getting into what personal loans are
Um, they've like I said become this really popular form of alternative credit. Um in the u.s alone
it's about a 90 billion dollar market
And um, the internet has played really a large part in that growth. It's incredibly easy to hop online
Even if you don't have a credit history or a good credit history
You can go on your phone and in just a few minutes get up up to like a fifty thousand dollar unsecured personal loan
And these are really versatile loans
You can get them for if you've got a medical bill or you need to repair your car or you need to pay for a
Wedding or even if you wanted to consolidate other high interest debt with it
Um, you can do that. So it's really versatile
It's really easy to get and that's what makes it such a trap for a lot of people because
While the money is easy to get it's very hard to repay because the interest rates on these loans
When you start adding up the fees and other things in the fine print get into the triple digits
That's really the danger with these types of loans. They're destroying people's lives and i'm sure that
Uh, we can get into some some more specific examples of people that have taken these loans before and just ended up drowning in debt
I think that that helps people to understand because people don't under quite comprehend how
Crazy these interest rates can get
And how many people are stuck under it?
I mean, I don't know if you guys have the stats in front of you with the amount of debt in the u.s
Especially credit card debt others like that, but it's it's pretty outrageous
So, uh with that being said and thanks for the explanation when you were explaining this you mentioned
Like I said triple digit interest rates thor. Can you elaborate more on this?
Yeah, you know like dennis said and this is kind of a crazy statistic to think about so
You know, I think this is a pretty mixed space today, which is which is always nice to get a diverse group of people
But you know, I had spent a little bit of time in traditional finance, but i've been a crypto
User myself and kind of investor since about 2017 now
And I think one of the things in crypto is we're used to seeing some of these
You know, especially in past cycles some of these crazy
eye-popping yields or returns
In that in a way is something, you know, you see in crypto
But it's not something that I think a lot of us expect to see in
traditional finance, but like dennis said
It is not uncommon in the u.s
For her people to receive personal loans in uh, triple digit aprs
If you go google, you know high interest
Personal loan horror stories you will find all sorts of results on google about stories of people who have
Found themselves in a position where they for whatever reason have taken out one of these loans
And you know find themselves trapped and that can be really devastating financially. And so, you know, there's a really good story
Actually that bloomberg did called lending at five hundred and eighty nine percent during the pandemic
And that that's a real stat people are really lending at five hundred and eighty nine percent
Uh in the u.s and that's not you know on a couple hundred dollars. That's on
You know a three thousand dollar or more loan a lot of times
And you know one of the women featured in this article
Uh actually borrowed twenty five hundred dollars and paid back over seven thousand dollars
In interest in fees alone on that over the course of about two years before defaulting on our loan
And you know what that tells you is people
Want to do the right thing and they want to pay a lot of these loans back
But you know, it's pretty impossible to do so when you have an apr that that that's that outrageous
And that's what we're really trying to solve for
Perfect, okay. I want to bring it over to crystal
Pretty crazy that this park could even exist with that in mind. Could you talk about the legal and regulatory landscape in consumer lending currently?
Yeah, hey, thanks. Well, so yeah, just also to touch upon what denon said earlier too from um
From a perspective of the market. So basically dennis was right like so a lot of these consumers can't touch upon
Personal bank loans, right?
And so what happens is especially when there's a credit crunch right now due to the current market and due to inflation
A lot of people turn to alternative asset classes like fintechs, right?
So the regulatory environment will ebb and flow to be frank depending on who's sitting in what position the political office, right?
So what we have seen is is that with at least in my experience, right? That
When when a certain body or position is sitting in in the seat, they tend to be a little bit more aggressive
But I think at the end of the day, right it comes down to who the team is and what the business practices are, right?
Like you take someone who like waltz-flargo who even had um, you know
A huge issue for for opening up fraudulent accounts on behalf of consumers, right?
And so I think what the regulatory landscape is leaning towards
Has which has been since the financial crisis is consumer protection
And so that is my background
My background is consumer regulatory compliance regulatory compliance
And I think that at the end of the day if you try to do the right thing and you have the right, um, you know
Operational excellence in place and if you have the right policies and procedures in place, you know
You're going to be good and the regulators are not necessarily going to try to poach you
But if you're doing something like straight up fraudulent straight up corrupt straight up, you know wrong then yeah
I mean you're going to have a target on your back
And so you look at someone like the us where there are you know heightened regulatory
You know enforcement actions like I just I received
Another another blip today that there was another import enforcement reaction with uh, you know a debt collector, right?
Because they're they're using abusive practices to go after and then you know
You talk about abusive practices and you think about people like lat-am where they don't
They don't send you a notice. They show up on your doorstep with like a bat
And then you talk about you know, the the regulatory
Environment around europe like this is a widespread widespread problem on on a global
Uh perspective and so, you know for us, you know at xivo we're we're trying to
Not only help the people in the us, but really it's it's an international effort, you know, and so
That's we we're aware of this problem. We understand it
We've gone through it. And so all that you can do is just be prepared to do the right thing
And you know for those lenders out there and for those people who are on fin tech
You know, i've i've always tried to
You know talk to to my boards and i've always tried to management and say listen
The bigger you get the more of a target you get on your back
Like i've always tried to say like do good
Keep your head down and grow and just do the right thing and you know, sometimes that works
And sometimes it doesn't but I think as a day as long as you try to do good and your heart's in the right place and
You got the right practices, you know, you should be able to overcome
You know the regulatory murky waters
Perfect thanks crystal. So, uh one more question here
Oh one more question i'll get in and then we'll kind of dive into the solutions here and some pieces with lady trader
This is back to you thor. Why is it so important for individuals to have access to affordable credit?
Yeah, for sure and I can touch on this real quick and then you know
I'm happy to take any questions as well. Uh lady trader. Do you have anything you want to ask? So
You know, I think one of the things that you know, many of us can take for granted is that you know, we have access to
Credit to essentially fuel our daily lives in a way if
You look around it's pretty hard in the u.s or elsewhere to
You know function or buy a car do all these different things that you know
We take for granted without access to credit and I think one of the
The staggering statistics that I learned about when we first kind of began working on zyvo is if you look at
households who are financially vulnerable
They spend 14 percent of their their total income on interest in fees associated with financial services versus
One percent for financially healthy households
And that spread right there is huge
You know that represents the ability for people to put food on the table to get gas for their cars
To kind of do these different things that are going to help them
And build a better financial life and better financial future for themselves
And so we really want to help that segment of people
And help them have a better financial future
Hey, hey everyone. I'm so excited to actually I went to your website
As I would team and i'm really excited to see like what you guys are trying to do here because
I've heard a lot about these kind of predatory lending practices that that a lot of companies have
Thankfully, I have never been personally impacted by it, but I know
You know i've heard enough horror stories about it
So it makes me really happy that you're actually trying to make a difference and also doing it through web3, right?
So just lots of innovation there. So that makes me super happy
And I did see that on your website you have like a kyc
Process before you would actually do that and it goes like you basically make people go through a certain process is to actually apply for that
So if you can kind of cover that process a little bit
I definitely have some follow-up questions as well
But I would like to learn a little bit more about your process
Overall and you know like the end-to-end process if somebody wants to apply for a loan then what what do they need to do?
And then from your end, how do you make sure that you know
The loan will be paid back if it's not paid
Paid back, then what are the steps that you're going to be taking all of that good information?
Yeah, for sure happy to yeah to work kind of unpack a lot of that. So go
I was going to say no, I think thor could
Or thor could definitely touch upon this and i'm happy to supplement
Sorry crystal, this is the problem sometimes with with not being able to see people's faces on the call
You can never tell when people are about to start talking
Um, maybe just to to start it off, you know, because I think there's a lot we can unpack here
Dennis do you maybe just want a high level?
You know how the the protocol was?
Yeah, thor you cut out there, but i'll take the question
So, um, I think there's a couple things to break down
So let me just start off by maybe talking high level how the protocol works sort of where we're placed up in terms of the
The value stream for the specific market and then we can talk about how we're maybe underwriting and stuff like that. So
really what our thesis with with zybo was
From from being in web 3 was to take in and aggregate capital from people
On the blockchain and inject it into
These traditionally underserved credit markets and the thesis by doing so is basically
Will increase competition among lenders and help drive down the cost of capital for end consumers in the real world
Um, and so the way we do that from from an on-chain perspective is we take in capital from depositors through our senior and junior tranche
And then we lend out that capital
To start we've sort of taken
A b2b to c business model or approach to doing this. So, um, what we're doing on the zybo side is identifying, um
Inclusive licensed consumer lenders to partner with and then we lend capital to them on chain and stablecoins
And then they take that capital and they convert it to fiat and lend it out to any consumer borrowers
And so that's how we're initially making an impact
We're kind of sitting is this bridge between web 2 and web 3?
I mean, so the underwriting process there, um is a pretty standard, um traditional b2b
Underwriting process involves kyc, you know diving into the business model of the company
Understanding the risk profile how they're underwriting things like that
And then on the the web 2 side of the business those consumer lenders are using, um a variety of different
Underwriting metrics maybe traditional credit metrics or alternative credit metrics to actually underwrite those borrowers
And really what we're looking to do there is find the right partners
So with lending there's really the business model is fairly simple
You you borrow money at x percent and you lend it at x plus y percent
And a lot of lenders out there in the space what they do particularly the high interest the predatory ones
They figure out what the highest interest rate they can lend out is and that's what they lend out
What we're looking for in our partners are people that are actually trying to use alternative data to improve underwriting
For underserved borrowers and that's who we're lending capital to
Perfect that that makes perfect sense. Thank you so much for answering
Um, and then one question I do have is around like whenever you you said that you're actually looking for partners
Um, I have have you ever heard of a project called rosify or rosie?
I have not thor crystal. Okay
No, I haven't either please please educate us
Yeah, absolutely. So essentially so i'm a key opinion leader. I didn't really introduce myself
Um, and i've been in the crypto space for a very long time
And I do partner with a lot of projects as a key opinion leader as an advisor
And and they happen to actually be one of my clients and they are actually pretty well known
In the lending industry because they do offer what we call blockchain credit discourse
And that's like one area where you know, I could see some synergies for um, you know for partnerships
So I can send you some information through dm. But um, do you have like anything?
Like that where you know, you're actually scoring people who have already taken loans internally and then maybe giving them
You know better terms next time and then also, um, you know, the second part of my first question was around
Paying back the loan. So if somebody is just they just disappear they take the loan they disappear
especially like when we get into the international markets, right there is
There's just so much that you can do kyc like people can kyc
It doesn't even matter nowadays
And so what are some of the steps that you're taking to make sure that you have enough collateral to actually
You know be able to pay yourself back or you know
If it's through staking rewards where somebody is taking their funds and providing liquidity into those loans
Then they are able to recoup their funds
Yes, so part of the way we've structured this and we mentioned this a little bit is initially we're taking a b2b to c model and
Part of the reason we did this is originally we wanted to
Look at how xavo can get direct exposure to consumers and we
Want to continue to look at how in the long run is a protocol get direct exposure to consumers
We have done this partnership model in the way we are
Is to run right now the user experience in
Web 3 is not good enough to where
An individual who is used to being able to go to one of these more traditional lenders and apply for a loan and you know
get a decision to receive a loan and
Literally give me a couple minutes you can easily do that process and interact with the web through protocol
what we are going to do in order to
Kind of make sure we are handling potential defaults for other issues on consumer end
Is as our consumer lending partners or people are actually originating loans to consumers
Those loans are getting placed into an spv
Or a special purpose vehicle set up specifically to custodian these consumer loans
And what is going to happen is that the protocol itself is actually going to have rights to this spv
And in the event that the lender that the protocol provided capital to default
Protocol can then actually take control of this as pv
and actually wind down the consumer lending portfolio and part of what we're doing initially is
We're going to be working with a u.s based lender
And the reason to actually begin in the u.s is two which is one
The u.s is the 800 pound gorilla in the room when it comes to
Uh, this works of lending lending
This market exists internationally almost everywhere exists in the uk
It exists in certain countries in Europe exists in southeast asia and america and all these different countries
But one of the things, you know, we take further seriously is risk management
and if we're going to lend in a country we need to ensure
uh, be pretty comfortable with the
Legal system there to ensure we have reports because really as a lender you want to get paid back
So if we don't want to lend
You know in countries where there is not a legal recourse for us to actually recruit any potential losses
Uh from lady trader. I appreciate you throwing into the mix
I want to kind of lead us a little further into this and talk a bit more about what
Ziva was doing to actually address the issue we discussed of the really just not no affordable loans and
Yeah, we can hear you. Can you hear me?
Hey chris. Look, can you hear can you hear? Um, can you hear a wolf?
No, I couldn't I hear you dave. Oh, just have her leave me joined
Yeah, if you can just just drop down and come right back and just request back up. You should be good chris
Perfect. Hey, this one's going over to dennis. All right dennis
Could you have people who may be learning about zyvo?
We talked a little bit about it here actually thor just gave a nice overview
But for those that are hearing about it for the first time and kind of how you're making an impact in the consumer lending
Market and how the protocol works exactly
Yeah, sure, I'll just kind of like resummarize what I said, I think so, you know really what we're trying to do at this stage
Um with zyvo is act as this bridge between the traditional financial world where these people are already borrowing
And the defi world where there's all this capital that really um, it's kind of just idle, you know
A lot of real economic activity going on on blockchain. That's impacting the real world
And so we're trying to take that capital and put it to work in these these real world financial markets where people are
doing everyday transactions
And so like I said, what that looks like is us aggregating capital now and then taking that off chain and
And lending it out to these underserved borrowers as we move forward
We're going to try and work on actually moving further downstream towards the end consumer
And trying to make that user experience of interacting with web 3
Possible for the average person and so that that could look like things like using account abstraction or whatnot
To actually get people to use blockchain rails to move capital and deploy it
Um without necessarily having such a harsh user experience like we do today
Um, and and we think that ultimately by bringing this capital from on chain and increasing the supply of capital in these markets that that will bring
Interest rates lower and it's also going to
Um kind of create competition for other lenders to do the same thing
As as we start to penetrate this market
Perfect appreciate that. Okay
Back over to thor here dennis covered it pretty well
But the lenders who the protocol is bright and capital tool are actually uh lending to consumers
I'd like to talk a little bit more about how these lenders actually underwriting consumers
I think lady trader touched a little bit on this
And then we'll uh kind of go over to crystal and talk a little bit more about the regulatory environment
So thor you could touch on that if you already feel like you covered it. No worries
I could maybe expand on that a little bit more. I see dave has his hand up. So dave if you
Question would love to hear it
Yeah, I was just curious about like I mean when I think about this right in predatory lending
I think of an education aspect, right?
It's like it's great what you guys are doing
But i'm just curious and nothing you have to be doing it like are there though like any like what educational resources?
Can maybe people utilize like either on zyvo or do you guys maybe have that can?
Prevent people from from kind of falling back into the trap, right where it's like I feel like this is a never-ending cycle
You know for a good chunk of this country and a good chunk of the world obviously
But um from an education standpoint like do you guys either offer something or like what resources?
maybe like can do you think like people can use when it comes to specifically like
Like people maybe either understanding the blockchain and kind of how it relates to predatory lending and what people can actually do to
To avoid no dave. I think you definitely hit it on the head
And that's exactly what we're actually trying to focus on and work on like from a v1 v2, right?
Like the first is like let's just help these people get out of this
You know bad situation then at that and then you know v2 v2 v3 standpoint
There's like something called like credit builder products that helps them learn how to start saving money
Then down the line what we want to do is provide them
Those educational resources to help them understand how they can have better better financial health better financial wealth
And take action into their own hands and realize what credit options they have available and like at zyvo
What we want to do and I don't know if we've ever actually touched upon this but zyvo actually
I'm using european zyvo means to life, right?
And so like for us at zyvo what we want to do is be able to help people
You know what their finances for life and it's not just like a one and done like we really want to help
Migrate them out of a high interest learning product
And in fact, like if you go back to these high predatory high interest lenders, then that's not this is not something that
we're trying to help you out and so
Actually one of the t's and c's is
You have a commitment to us to not go back to these predatory high interest lenders because we want to help you out of these bad situations
So you're you're absolutely right and making sure that we can give these people better literature to help them understand what's going on
I think one of the things to add to what crystal said I think crystal put it um pretty beautifully is
There's clearly an education
To this but I also think when you really look at what's going on here
People we don't give people enough credit sometimes which I think people a lot of times understand
That these loans are but they genuinely do not have any other options. So
If you live in a part of the country and where if you you don't have your car to get the work
You can't make it and you lose your job, right? That is probably
You know in the u.s 80 or 90 percent of the country, right?
There is public transportation to an extent in certain major metropolitan areas and even other cities, but it's somewhat limited
And so your car breaks down and you need two thousand dollars to fix your car so you can get to work next week
And only an option is a high interest loan
Or potentially using your job if you can't fix your car in time
You know, it doesn't matter how much education you have if those are your options
You're going to take the letter of two volts, which in this case may be that high interest loan
And so that's what we're really looking to cry for
Appreciate that. Yeah, I think that would be really cool
Like I think you know what as you guys go
It's almost like you know, you kind of you kind of help people graduate
You know what I mean? Like you help them out of the trenches first
It's like come on. Give me a hand get about it here. And now it's like, you know, like come on follow me now
Don't go back down there like like let's do that because I think that's gonna be just as important and I think
If you guys already have stuff kind of like in the works like for for you and you're already thinking about that
I think that's gonna be huge and I get it
It doesn't pay but you guys didn't start this whole thing
Like chris was just saying you guys didn't start this whole shit just to be like oh
Like let them fall back in and we'll profit off them again
Nah, like this is this is what the blockchain was kind of meant for right? So kudos to you guys
Like I think that's really really cool
Thanks, dave appreciate you
Uh, by the way thor I mentioned it in the chat, but your sound quality was getting a little digital for me there
I don't know how to explain it. Uh, if you're near wi-fi or better wi-fi, you might want to move into a spot like that
It's almost the full moon wolf. I mean there's gonna be some vibrations going on
I I think i've got my my sound quality fix. So wolf. Can you hear me a little bit better? Okay
Yeah, it's better now. Perfect. Uh, let's go back over to lady trader and then we'll miss gecko
Hey, so I have questions around your uh project and really the tokens, right?
So are you going to be coming up with a token and utilities tied to that token?
So we'd love to learn more about it and then also where you are at currently if you're doing any fundraising at all
Yeah, so just let the lawyer pop in for a second. Yes, there is there is a utility behind the protocol and the protocol is
an international based protocol and it is
For non-us people and only us accredited investors
But thor dennis, you're free to take it over from here and then uh, miss gecko miss gecko also they end up
So I don't know if we want to just be mindful about that, too
Why don't we kind of answer um lady trader's question first and then we could definitely hop to uh, miss gecko as well
Miss gecko great to see you always fantastic to uh, have you here?
I hope my sound quality is a little bit better now guys. So please uh,
Okay, perfect. Yeah, it's all good. Thumbs up. So I think I should be uh,
So to answer your um question lady trader. Yes, we will
Uh be launching a token and we actually have um, I'll kind of focus on the governance token
Uh for right now, but we actually have a three token model
So we are going to be launching uh our governance token
Uh in q2 along with the protocol and our governance token is known as zbe
And that is a token with a fixed supply of 25 million
And it actually has utility as well and that it actually uh,
Essentially is able to be staked
To earn yield and so the way our protocol is set up is 20
Of all of the yield generated by the entire protocol actually goes to zbe token
Actually, the other thing too, that's kind of really exciting and we're going to be
Releasing some more details in the next couple of weeks about this is we're going to do a um token presale as well
For the governance token in advance of launching a q2
And so definitely stay uh tuned for some more announcements about that as well and then
On the other side of this
Uh lady trader is we also have what are known as tranche tokens
And so when people come to the protocol to deposit liquidity
They can deposit into either the senior or junior tranche and for every stable coin they deposit
They will get a tranche token and those can also be staked
To claim yield from the lending activities
Undertaken by the protocol so happy to unpack that more if there's any additional questions there and if not we can hop to uh, miss gecko
I have one more question. Who are um, the backers that we see backers. Can you share any any information about that?
Crystal I will let you uh, kind of hop in here. Yeah, you know, thank you so much for these questions. Um, they
This isn't my first time helping
helping launch a couple of items, right and so
one of our founders we've bootstrapped this and so I think when you're in startup mode you really have to learn how to
Um be able to be efficient with the limited resources that you have
And you know, um, we are have been blessed to be able to navigate through that from a bootstrapping perspective
Um, we are in the process of securing liquidity providers. Um, so that is something that's in the works. We've secured
Committed from an LP perspective and have another five verbally but until it's in the bank
I don't count on it and then um, we have a couple family offices as well
And do you do you plan on doing like an ido or is it gonna be like a pre-sale what platform are you planning on launching?
Dennis do you want to talk a little bit about our our launch and then maybe I can touch a little more on some of the other
Yes, so there's going to be a couple different stages to um, our protocol launch
So we are going to be having a pre-sale of the zve token
Um in the earlier part of q2 can anyone and then follow
Oh, it's the full moon if you take problems everywhere
If you ever can't fear someone just drop down and come back up. I'll bring you right back up
Cool, um, so yeah, so following the pre-sale we'll have an initial tranche offering that'll be the first opportunity for
Lps to come in and contribute capital to the senior or junior tranche
Depending on which one you want to participate in
Um, we'll also give out some zve tokens for participating in that event as well
And then um is when when we will go live directly after that
Has concluded all that's going to be um custom through our own ui through our own dapp. So you'll be able to just come to
our our app on savada finance and um participate that way
Perfect, mr gecko. Did you have some thoughts here?
Yeah, definitely great to see you guys again. Hi crystal. Hi thor. How's it going?
Um, but yes, I just want to follow up on dave's point regarding the social aspect of zyvo because there's so many aspects of this that
I just love but this always comes back to the forefront and we always end up talking about it
So the issue that you are trying to address now the high the high rate predatory lending
You're trying to address that with block pain and web3
And we know that community is a huge huge part of blockchain and web3
So I find it really interesting to see how zyvo
Engages with its community through discord and twitter as being a financial
Lending type of institution. So how crucial is community feedback for you guys in shaping the development of zyvo?
Is it something that you actively look for or you know?
You keep your ears open and incorporate that when you're making decisions
No, absolutely. I think that's an amazing question and it's always great to to be in your presence
So thank you for being so methodical about it. Absolutely, you know for us
The thing about web3 is is if you don't
Have a hard shield and a hard head like you don't belong here because it is definitely brutal, right?
And so we welcome any and all feedback, you know from that perspective because that's how you learn and that's how you grow
We definitely do have thick skin and that's that's how the protocol can be better shaped
And obviously we have to be mindful, you know, we can't take one-off situations, right?
But we look at it collectively in a collaborative manner. And so please any and everyone please do reach out to us dm us
Put on twitter if it's good bad, it's ugly. That's how you grow. That's how you learn and that's how you become better
I love it crystal. I love I can tell that we would work so amazingly together now
They say cpas and lawyers are you know, we're at each other's throats, but really we work together very well
Yeah, but i'm not i'm not a wonk. I'm a business attorney
We work with us and i'm not a bean counter i'm a risk management consultant
No, I love it. No, we absolutely I mean that's that's why we're all here, right?
It's to help each other out, you know, if there's anything we could ever do to help people
That's that's why we're here at the end of the day, you know, is there a profit to be made? Yes, of course
Is is there something, you know, I I think
The hard part I mean to be frank the hard part that I have is
Is being out in such a social big manner, right?
Because it's like i've never been that way before and so like
Having the feedback and saying hey, you know come out
Please this way has been amazing because i've always been like
You know a little bit more standoffish
That's how we grow and learn and help
I think i've also seen you know what i've also seen crystal is
Every single time that i've seen any sort of protocol attach some sort of a social cause or aspect like to it
Like it just it changes people's percent. I don't know what it maybe it's a psychology thing
But it changes people's perception
Of the of the of the team of the protocol of the mission because your mission is noble, right?
Like you guys are still doing good
But we're a fickle crowd like we're a fickle fickle crowd here in web 3 man
Like anybody that's been investing in crypto in anything
We're so skeptical of so many things that it's like if you can attach your name
Right to a reputable social cause that really does like change the game
So yeah, i'm i'm i'm back in this gecko on this one 100 percent
Like I think that's that would be like something incredible like you um
Yes, you remember how a courtyard right like they were like they're tokenizing like pokemon cards, right?
But yet they attach their name to brinks
Immediately your brain goes to safety
Yeah protected. It's like, okay, like wait, i'm gonna mail my pokemon expensive pokemon cards in
Well, yeah, but you're gonna do it with brinks now obviously brinks is not social cause
I'm just saying like from brand name perspective
When you attach it to that and there's a social cause to it. I think that that's powerful powerful stuff guys
Thank you so much guys for the feedback and again
Please let's let's all come together and work together and collaborate and if there's anything like I said that we could all do together
To grow the initiative for you guys for us, you know for the people for the community and and let's fearhead
You know defy for what it's meant to be together. That's that's what we're about and that's why we're here
And we appreciate, you know, all of you guys involved and yeah, so thank you
You you guys have it hard though
That's the thing right and I and I mean that in the nicest way because who's gonna want to shit like to build community around
What's up? Yeah, we're all here. Yeah, we're terrible with credit. Yeah, we've been taking advantage of our whole lives
We're here to try to get out of this rut. You too. Yep
You know what I mean? Like that's really difficult, right?
Like people like are really to build a community around what you guys are doing as noble as the cause is
That's going to be super super tough
So I think that it makes it all that much more powerful
But yeah, man, i'm so down to collab like with you guys like me miska go like anybody like it's for real
Yeah, we'd love to we'll have to we'll have to get in touch and kind of plant some stuff out
And I think one of the things too to maybe just touch on there too is you know in a way
We're creating almost a two-sided community in a way, you know
You have a community of people that you know are maybe suffering from this issue, right?
But then I also think on the liquidity provider side of the crypto side
I think you have a group of people in web 3 who at least for me, you know
A lot of people got into this space because for one reason or another many of us have lost faith in the traditional financial system
whether it be 2008 or some of the stuff that went on during covid or things before that and so
To me, I think there there's a case to be made here that we can build a community of people
You know solving this issue or combating this issue of people who are in web 3
And want to disrupt the traditional financial system and correct some of the inequities that exist in it currently
So for us, I think that that's a big component component of what we want to do to begin creating community
Yeah, that would be cool that would be so cool because that literally when you do that
And especially like if if what you guys do is successful for a lot of people
Guess what? They become your evangelists. They go out and they start like preaching your product
They start yelling the xivo name everywhere and it's like almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. So good stuff sort good stuff
Yeah, and I just wanted to add one thing too is you know, the community is going to be become the place where
We can educate people as well, you know people are going through the same
You know part of their financial journey and they can help each other and pull them out of that
Which I think is going to be really interesting to see as we move forward
Okay, we got another 10 to 15 minutes or so here to cover a little bit more info
One of the things I always like to ask is how the listeners can get involved
So thor dennis whichever one she wants to take that how can we get involved after this?
Yeah, so we just had a big week of meetings with our team
And I have a lot of cool stuff in the works
And that's going to include a lot of ways for people to get involved with xivo
So we're going to be launching an ambassador program
As we begin to work more and more on our marketing and community building and so
You know for people who are interested what they're doing and what we're doing and they want to help out and they want to be involved
As we begin to get closer to launching definitely stay tuned for more announcements about that program and how
You can kind of become involved as an ambassador for the project. So that's the first thing
The second thing is we're going to actually be holding a presale
For the zbe token itself actually and this will be open to anyone who is
And is interested in supporting the project early
And then the third kind of big milestone we've coming up is we're going to be launching the entire protocol in q2 this year
And so there's a ton of different ways in the next couple of months to get involved
Depending on where your interest lies and we're also talking about doing some other
You know programs or ways to get the community involved even more and so I would definitely
Give us a follow and stay tuned because we're going to be announcing the details of a lot of those things over the next couple
Perfect that's good to hear. Okay, uh another question here. Uh, this is going to be kind of the long-term goals
How do you scale? Uh what you're trying to do?
What are the long-term goals and then what are the milestones to get there throughout this year?
Yeah, for sure dennis you maybe want to talk a little bit about just kind of launch in our initial plans
Then I can go a little longer term
Yeah, so really what our goal is, um coming out of launch in q2 is to really prove out our model and show
How we can take capital from on chain take it off chain lend it out and make it safe so that people can come in
And really just prove out that we can bridge between these two different worlds and then it really does make an impact
In these end consumer markets and then we're going to really scale up from there
So we want to continue to to raise
Capital into our tranches take that put it out on the street in the u.s
And that's going to be our main focal point for really the first year or so of our operations
And then we're going to look to to
Expand internationally as well as move further towards
The end consumer like we were saying
With with our v2 so that's sort of the the high level goal for our next year of development is is moving more downstream
And also starting to expand internationally as well
And so throughout this year is there kind of goals for each quarter
That you'd be able to outline but that people can kind of look at
One of the things we'll be doing in the next couple of weeks as well is releasing
Uh a definitive roadmap kind of outlining some of the different programs that I was mentioning
Before and then also kind of outlining some longer term goals
And so to add on a little bit to what dennis was saying, you know for us in terms of roadmap items right now
Q2 is really uh going to be all about launching for us and then
Q3 and q4 of this year what we really want to do like dennis said
Is we want to prove out this model and to elaborate on that a little bit part of the reason is
bridging between tradify and defy is still a relatively new thing in the manner that we're looking to do it and
You know want to prove out what we're doing before we you know
Essentially get off the races right being you know risk managers is a big part of our job and you know
We want to make sure that everything is working as it should when we are moving
On-chain and off-chain and essentially originating these levels
And so that is going to be a huge for us in the second half of this year
And then like dennis said what we really want to do longer term is we want to begin seeing how we can get
Downstream and get as close to the consumer as possible
So in countries like the uk or other places where there's certain sandboxes, you know
We may have the ability to actually look at how the protocol is able to lend directly to
Consumers or get direct consumer exposure
And so that's something that towards the end of this year and going into 2025. We're going to begin working to build out
And then there is also one thing that I did want to touch upon
Is is that we're also looking at tokenizing the consumer notes?
And so we'll be working with once we prove our risk models out and we
Scale appropriately in a manner that we see fit in an inappropriate way, right?
And so once we get our risk tolerances in place and we could prove everything out
Then we would um, we would start looking at tokenization for the consumer notes
All right. I'm bringing dave back up here
Uh, by the way, if you're in the audience and you do have a question
You can feel free to DM me the question i'll make sure that it gets asked just want to put that out there
I know we've been pretty thorough. So I don't know if people have too many questions
We've been really digging in here and miss gecko lady trader dave if you have any questions
Feel free to throw a hand up and we can go back into that
I'm curious right now, you know, we who who you'll see is
General competition in this area and how you're differentiating from them
Yeah, i'm happy to touch on that. So
I think one of the things is right now that's really exciting for us is you know
We feel like we're in the cutting edge of this space right now. There are other
Protocols that are working on bridging between uh tradify and defy and looking at the private credit market
But one of the things I think that really differentiates us as a protocol
Is we have a fairly narrow scope and that is very intentional
And our scope is we're really looking to focus on the high interest lending market and how we help people in that market
And the reason being is, you know
This is an area that our team knows really really well
And we feel like we are equipped with the necessary knowledge to manage risk correctly and execute
On our roadmap in this area and I think one of the things a lot of other
Maybe credit protocols do in this space that I think is a little bit different is they try to be
Uh, you know everything to everyone or they serve many different types of businesses
and I think that can sometimes make it a little bit harder to underwrite or manage risk because you're dealing with
A number of different factors across different businesses that if you're not, you know, very familiar with
You know each business's business model and business specific risk it becomes hard to account for
Some of the risk there and so I think that is one of the things that in my opinion really differentiates us just from an operational perspective
And there's a whole bunch of other items I could go into as well
But I think I saw a hand from from dave. I think unless I miss that
Sorry about that twitter's acting a little wonky on me. Um, I did have a question in regards to like collaborations like with other
Protocols, right? Like I'm starting to see this a little bit more and more now
I even saw like, you know within the last like six months. I even see some protocols like merging
Obviously, I know that that it's early
But i'm just curious like what other protocols are kind of like on your guys's radar in regards to
either collaborating with working really closely with or
Is this just kind of like?
You know, you guys are pretty much just heads down right now
And obviously like long like, you know, obviously getting cyber off the ground
We're pretty heads down right now. I think oh, go ahead crystal
No, you're good. I mean, yeah, we are heads down, but we're always looking to collaborate, right?
Like so there's there's a couple protocols especially like in the nft space that have like idle capital, right?
And like then I think the nft market got hit a little too hard
Um more worse than some other areas and so like
There's certain protocols that have idle capital that we've been in talks with to potentially be like lps, right?
And so like listen, uh, we're always up for collaboration, right? And that's that so we welcome we welcome that for sure
You know whether if it's marketing
Leveraging the technology or how we can collaborate together. So if you guys have ideas, please feel free to bring it to us
Always in the space to to collaborate that would actually like that would be really cool
Like I mean, I don't know what that looks like, right?
But like some sort of an nft where and maybe you kind of can incorporate this into the education piece, right?
Where it's like you kind of bring them through and because you can create like really
Right in the social aspect dave like you said bringing in that social justice a social cause like there's a lot of angles there
Yeah, so like my brain is just spinning right now
I love it. I love it. Let's let's all do it
Let's let's have a one-off conversation and see what we could do and put our you know, put our heads together
Yeah, I guess what I was thinking was like as an nft
It's like you get like you create these like simple ai modules, right?
And it's like kind of like a training of like what the experience that people went through just to make sure that they're learning
So they're not falling back to the old ways you give them like some sort of like a certificate
You partner up with a social cause boom like the certificate is the nft. You're graduating from zybo university
That is an excellent idea there are so many people don't know the basics of finance like this is
Dave like you're onto something here. You're onto something. It's your nft button
Yeah, exactly. That's it. Like, you know what? I love it. I love it
It's totally soul bound. There's no way you're ever getting rid of it because uh knowing you and your bad credit habits
I'm probably gonna try and sell that shit for something like oh cool a pair of nikes
Yeah, let me sell this nfc real quick. No, but you get what I mean. That's the difference
I love it. I love it. And everyone here is gonna partake in the festivities. I love it
So how what kind of challenges do you guys think that you will encounter when you will actually go to?
Take this product to market right when you are actually going after
user adoption um on the mainstream level
Because predatory like lending is already bad right bad enough
Then you throw crypto into the mixture and it's like no
It's a big no, especially for people who don't understand anything about about crypto, right?
I think we have been blessed to understand the technology and and be a part of crypto community
But a lot of people are still very very like people
Like even in my own family, right?
It's like a lot of people don't understand crypto and they think it's just like gambling and you know, that's it like, okay
She's gonna lose everything. It's like no it has it hasn't happened
So, um, you know, it's like almost and it's it kind of seems like a scam to people, right?
So how do you convince people from web 2 to join something like what you are offering in web 3?
So I think one of the things is is we're giving
The end borrower a traditional experience in web 2 to begin with and that's part of the reason why
But I think one of the things that's really interesting about zyba and what we want to do especially being
A social good project and trying to
Disrupt this market for the better is I think
Like you said when you talk to most regular people who aren't in the space right now a lot of people have
You know bad connotations of the space. We just went through stuff with ftx
We went through you know a bajillion other things
And so one of the things we really want to be doing as a project is being a part of changing that narrative
And showing people that this technology can actually be used to do good and benefit people
Uh in the real world because I forget where I saw it on here
But you know one of the things I saw from a policy group in crypto is
You know people in dc or elsewhere, you know when they hear about crypto and they go, you know, how is this helping my
constituents other than giving them a way to
You know trade or you know place a bet or do other things, you know, where is this helping?
The average everyday person and we want to be able to provide an answer to that which is here is how the space is doing that
Yeah, I think like thor said is is ultimately right now
We've thought that through and we've gone web 3 is not necessarily mature enough to hand to the end user today
Um, but we believe that in in the next two three years
It's going to be and so we're going to be trying to create an experience ultimately where people are borrowing and repaying their loans on chain
And interacting with web 3
Whether they realize it or not and that's really sort of the ultimate nirvana for for xivo is being able to leverage
This onshane capital to reduce the cost of of borrowing
Um and just package that all up in a way that feels
Really native to the end user
And then can you tell us a little bit about the market cap that you are expecting to launch at like the initial market cap
For the pre-sale like what would be the valuation that you're going to be offering that pre-sale at
So that is one of the things you will have to
Kind of stay tuned over the next couple of weeks and we'll be releasing more information
About what the actual pre-sale terms will be
And you know, that's something when we come back, uh for our next space with wolf we can kind of dive into a little bit further
That's great. Thank you. And then just wanted to throw it out there. I know you mentioned about your ambassador program
I do partner with a lot of projects as a key opinion leader and then I can also
If your team is interested in meeting launch pads and things like that
I've worked very very closely with launch pads, um, you know that are outside of the united states, of course
But pretty much all of the major launch pads I work with and I partner with like downmaker cdefy you name it
And so i'd love to help if you need any help in that area
Yeah for sure, I think we're we're going to be kind of conducting the the pre-sale through our own
Smart contracts and in dapp but we're always open to different ways to collaborate and we'll definitely love to have you be a part of
Guys, thank you so much for the amazing questions today
This is always a pleasure and would love to stay on longer, but i'm sure wolf, uh, you know
You've been math is kind of all day. So, you know if you need to wrap this up, we're good to do so if you need to
Yeah, let's move into a little wrap-up crystal any final comments you want to share?
No, I just it's always amazing to be able to come on these spaces, uh, you know with you wolf and and you know
With dave musco in lady. I'm sorry. I didn't get the full name right here lady trader
Um, but you know, these questions are are always amazing and it makes me always think when I step away from it and evaluate how
People in the space in the industry are looking at it, right?
Like being transparent being methodical looking at stuff from the social good
Like everything that like you think and feel and you know, it gets validated when I eat when you come on here
And it's like you're fighting the good fight
And you know, I just I really appreciate everyone's
I really appreciate everyone's insight to what's going on and knowing that you could come somewhere and collaborate, right?
Like that's not how tradfi works. Sometimes like tradfi is like just cutthroat and it's like
It's sometimes just assholes
And I when I when I come when I come to work in defi and i've been in you know in the defi space
It's like it's just so amazing to know that people come together
And you know, I always just say that all ships rise in high tide
so I just I appreciate everyone and I appreciate the support and
It's going to be an amazing journey and I can't wait to experience this ride with everyone. So, thank you
Thank you, uh, let's go to dennis
Yeah, crystal beautiful answer, um, the only thing I want to add that we didn't touch on no
We touched on the pre-sale the ambassador program, but we're also uh gonna be out in east denver
Um in february, uh march. So if you guys are there send us a dm. We'll link up. I think we're doing some some speakers some
Chatting on stage. We'll do some side events as well. So
Um, definitely connect with us if you're going to that event and we'd be happy to uh, say hi
That would be great for anybody that is there make sure that you are hitting them up and dennis. Oh, sorry, uh thor
Yeah for sure, uh, you know just to echo dennis and crystal guys, thank you so much for for joining us today
It's always an amazing time to do these spaces and then you know
We've got a whole bunch of stuff coming down the pipeline
And I think you know, one of the things we'll be doing on our next space with wolf is kind of talking about
Our ambassador program and talking about the pre-sale
So I would definitely encourage you to give us a follow to stay up to date on these things and then definitely join in
Uh to our next space when we kind of begin breaking these things down. So thank you again for coming tonight guys
All right, everybody that's gonna do it for tonight. Thank you. Miss gecko and dave and lady trader for coming on as well
I appreciate everyone for being on spaces with us. It's been about 10 11 hours or so
I'll be back on spaces at
Wow tomorrow, it's a late start. I don't believe i'm really running much until 2 p.m
Eastern so you can catch me there and dave will be live on the wolf web 3 account at 12 p.m
Eastern so some good stuff to catch there
Something we should connect on xivo team. We've got our wolf web 3 account as well
Uh to be fun to do some stuff on that channel
All right. Yeah. Yeah for sure. Miss gecko is a good idea. Yeah
Oh, it's a great idea. Great idea
I love it. All right. I'll chat with y'all in the chat. Take care. Everybody. Have a great evening
Somebody's gotta howl like a wolf