Wonky Weekly Alpha - Ep. 110

Recorded: March 29, 2024 Duration: 0:41:49

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All right, GM GM give it just a second I just tweeted things out so we'll get going here in a minute
Um, it's gonna be back though. This will be a little bit of a shorter week than normal. I've got
Um about half an hour after that i've got to get going for some good friday stuff
But we will enjoy the time that we do have
no poker space this week, so
Um, you know we'll be able to dive into a lot of the other stuff going on
I was an idiot for trying to play last week
I knew that I was going to get out quickly and that I was going to be a sacrifice for somebody
To be able to take those ships back with them. It's just a matter of time and it eventually happened
I forget exactly who knocked me out
but you know again
Wasn't very surprised did have a good group of winners though from the previous week
A lot of people that have been active in the stonks community for a while and added it up one second. Um
Added it up. I think that we gave away last week. Let's see
It was a little over three thousand dollars in prizes
So we you know originally said over two thousand dollars in prizes, but we gave away over three thousand dollars in prizes
Of both no chill and stonks and then on top of that, you know within the community
You had the omb giveaway with lumber to 80s aka matt, which was legendary as well
Um, I need to pin matt's awesome tweet slash, you know, I I don't know whether like
Do you call that a threat anymore or is it just a tweet now when it's long form like that?
So, I don't know
Um barista or jam welcome back. How's it going man? Happy good friday was popping baby
Oh man just sitting here
Sitting here
Stressing about the packing that i've got to do for the trip that i'm about to make
Yeah, dude. I always well the wonky's the wonky meetup isn't for another 20 days, dude
I know man. I know
That's another one
What's your uh, what's your status on that?
Don't want to give guarantees right now
I think I am leaning closer to being able to go now
Yeah, me and eddie sir, I booked my flight last night i'm gonna land a day early and kick away 80s
Yeah, it's it's still not a guarantee
yet, but I
I think i'm gonna be able to pull some things
To be able to get out of this other thing and go with you guys
So yes, sir
That's good because we collectively decided if you didn't show up we were just market selling all no chill and stonks
Well, I mean maybe maybe that's what has to happen
No, just just kidding. Uh, but no glad glad to hear you're leaning on the edge of going
Glad to hear excited super excited
Uh in the end
Dude, I tried to tried to get hondo too. Also hondo though, unfortunately
As a wedding that weekend that he cannot miss but he's like in slash part of
But yeah, dude, I mean I I don't know I think
Again not 100 percent
Still a couple things i've got but like I I do think I am now on the edge of leaning toward it
So I think that's uh, uh
I'm texting eddie's information now. Um
No, I think people are glad to hear that. Uh
I think a lot of people, you know, a lot of people a lot of faces we haven't seen before we started to meet lumber
Let me check who's in that group chat
Um, yeah excited to meet the people that I haven't met before
Uh, apparently btc's bringing some buddies. Um
So, you know, that'll probably be interesting
If there anything like him, so wait, what does the total count up to right now?
Let me check the
We are at
B-ways btc
I think breeze champ lander pytho
Uh, i'm not sure about ellis. I think pick god graphite's gonna make it from overseas
Um nelsonius
Dustin lumber and me so I think we're at a solid
Bro, I think that's you just named six or seven that I haven't met in person. Yeah, me too
Um, I think we've met the same people in person at this point unless have you met nelsonius yet?
Yeah, I I feel like I've met nelsonius, but it may just because i've seen his docs enough
But I feel like I met him. Well, he wasn't a south by was he I can't remember at this point
I for some reason I think he was I think he but
I thought he was
Maybe he wasn't I thought he was I know exactly who he is
Like I know I like i've seen enough pictures of nothing else. It's one or the other
It's one of those weird things where you know after enough time of actually talking to a person
via spaces, you know their voice and
You've seen their face like so you can piece together and make it feel like you've met them if you haven't like if nothing else
That's where I am with nelsonius. Yeah
No, no, nelsonius is like an absolute legend. Uh, always love it when he pops out
But I can't remember now if he pulls up to south by southwest now have a strange feeling he didn't
Or did he
Oh, I don't know man, I don't know. Um, so what do you have going on this weekend for easter?
Funnily enough probably go into the casino in a few hours
Bro, is there a casino up there? Yeah, they told casino town dude. It's like 45 minutes away
Blackhawk
I had no idea
Yeah, I knew there were in new mexico with a lot of the uh, you know reservations and stuff outside over there
Yeah, it's on a reservation. There were some Colorado. Yeah, they have like shit. They have like 10 15 maybe even 20
And if they've been are they've been paying me to come and eat buffets and leave them with money recently. So
You know, i'm just stacking up the points on my little members card
Yeah, probably going there with the buddy, um, and as of that honestly probably just uh
Shacoin gambling at this point. I have rotated a little bit in the nfts. Um, I think that rotation we might see
Sooner rather than later, um, especially on a few collections
So I have started rotating some of my salon and casino profits to uh, nfts
In shout out to the on-chain gayest claim reached 1.5 e
Or however, you say it guess east or um, I don't know. Um, I think it's sitting at 1.25 right now
So yeah, shout out to that
That's awesome, man. I mean I I agree with you. I think
We are going to start seeing that rotation happen like
You know, actually I take that back
I think we we both agree that it's going to happen like it is only a matter of time before it does
The real question then becomes when
And if you think that it's going to happen
Any time within the next like here's the thing that happens a lot of the time to people
They're like, well, i've still probably got a few months left until this does happen
You know this rotation back into it
So I I just want to squeeze out a little bit more time and then i'll start getting some exposure
And they just watch things continue to get flat on the nft side or they slowly bleed out and they're like, okay
Well, i've got more time
And next thing, you know
They look over and there's like one or two sweeps and all of a sudden the floor on that collection's up like 30 something percent
And they're like, okay. Well, I mean it still hasn't really happened yet
I've got just the and next thing, you know
It's more than 2x and that's about the time where a lot of the people that were like, okay
A rotation is going to happen. They believed it
They start fomoing in right and then a collection does like another 2x
And that's about the point where the outside people that were thought okay nfts are dead
They're like, oh shoot nfts aren't dead and then they start fomoing in
And that's when you start getting the new wave of entrance that really follow in
So that's just kind of like the progression of the cycle
So I think the smartest thing to do it is where you're doing it right now
Where it's still debatable about like when is this rotation going to happen?
You know is it like people still questioning whether or not it really is
Like that's where you really want to do it because that's where you beat the curve, but you've got to be patient because you know
The drawback of that is that you'll have you know
You don't know exactly what the window is going to be with where you're going to be sitting on it
But you are going to have a very comfy entry
Yeah, um, I added a couple pandas
Over the past couple days just because they were sitting that like I think they're sitting at like 1.9
Something right now, which is criminal in my opinion
And I looked at the depth and it's like 50 pandas to three east
Uh, and that was after a massive blur dump
Um after I bought it what when I purchased it was like 50 pandas to 3.3 ethereum
And at that point too, you know, I might not miss I might miss the top of meme coin season
Although I feel it's a little bit toppy right now
Uh, the lives of new launches are getting a lot shorter
I mean, there's a bonk bot scare this morning. Uh, same thing with like pumped up fun. There's a rumor circulating
Uh that people were getting drained
And like the only like it seemed to be like some similarities were people that were you know
Connected to pumped up fund and then bonk bot made an announcement said it was like a private key exploit with the third party
But they haven't identified it
But then people are saying only soul was getting drained not other tokens. So in my mind i'm like, okay
Well if it's a private key exploit
Wouldn't they be taking other tokens as well and not just salona?
So it feels a little toppy, right?
We just came off of you know presale season two and this on top of all of it machi
Is doing a presale and he's like my ultimate top signal for pretty much anything
Got me out of the top on friend tech even I probably should have grinded a little bit
That is so true. And he raised like what was it 30 mil?
Yeah within like four or five hours
He raised so he raised more than yeah. No, I don't even know if it's closed yet. Honestly in my hot take like I want him
That coin so bad and only put like two percent into the lp and then use the rest to sweep nfts
like even if it's just apes like I am I am completely like I kind of want that to happen because I think
that would
I don't know that that
It would almost bring him to like a main character villain type again
but against meme coins rather than
Nfts, and I think you'd actually see like a massive influx of volume come back in
if you put 25 million dollars into
Fucking apes. Honestly, I hope he does it. I would love to see that happen
Dude, that's the thing that I don't get about a lot of these presales is the people that are launching them
there are zero like
There are just about zero promises that they're putting out there as far as what they're going to do with these funds
People are supposed to address
Well, yeah people have seen a lot of these big characters only put like 50 in the lps
Right and it they're just okay with it
Right. Like the next thing, you know, like sartashi for instance
I think he put 40 or 50 in the lp out of the millions of sold like millions of dollars of soul that he raised
And then you see him over the course of the next like week or two. He's like, what should I sweep?
What should I sweep because not only did he not only did he a
um, you know
Raise a bunch and just pocket half of it b he also launched a coin
That was you know semi successful that he also got I think and you know some type of aloe for
So he like doubled up and
It just you know, nobody nobody cares
Yeah, I mean on it. The only time people care is this number go down, dude
Like so if you got the right pawns and omics
And then at that point like we the space moves so fast like people forgive and forget
most people do
Forgive and forget like in crypto so quickly now
There are some people who like you burn them once and they'll find your home address to your extended family
They you know, it's a it's a game of roulette
There hasn't been any consequences so people aren't gonna stop doing it and then if you make people money, they're gonna just ape into it
This might sound bad
But it's like even the zach xpt callout is losing its sting because he's calling out so many people and well deserved
right, everybody that he is calling out deserves to be called out in my opinion and
But there are just so many of them that one like there's no way that he can go out there and publish every single person
That's doing this right because there's just so many rugs a second
And then two because there's so many and because like a lot of them are from these, you know, somewhat prominent known accounts
a lot of people like it just
You know back in the day when he would call out somebody it'd be like once every few weeks
It'd be this big name and it'd be like this shocking thing because they weren't doing something so publicly facing
Right now I think what the difference is it's like the people that are doing this are doing this out in the open
Yeah, I mean nobody cares bitlord. He's like completely docked, you know post face videos all the time
And how much did he rug his coin for?
I was gonna like
I think at least 20. So which one he's got like a few coins. Yeah mom was one of them
But then he did that molly pre-sale and he also raised eight figures and i'm not sure what exactly he did with it
So if he's even done anything with it, yeah, but yeah, no like people like
When there's not like consequences
People aren't gonna care also shout out to
Sbf sentence thing. I mean he's probably only gonna end up doing seven years and maybe only like four and then
the last three on house arrest, but
It's nice to see a win
Yeah, no, I agree. I I think that I think you're right on that too
Like the 20 25 years whatever it was was more virtue signaling. He's gonna get out on good behavior early and um
You know it
It is what it is, right? Like at the end of the day, I think it's still a win
Yeah, man, I mean
Something that was important especially the one you look through the real paper trail of everything that went on in the background of all the shady shady stuff
That he was doing
Not like not just with customer funds, but he was doing with customer funds to tamper with markets
Was also really disturbing
Right like that's where it pushes the edge a step further because it's like hey, not only am I stealing your funds
I'm gonna steal your funds
to literally bet against you
So and also yeah, yeah that yeah the whole
Blade and fuckery. Um, I hope he does just enough time to where he has to get like prison gang tattoos on him
And uh, maybe he catches at least one or two assaults in that time
Uh, I mean maybe maybe he does commit one or two assaults himself, right? Like maybe it harden him to that point
Yeah, maybe yeah, I don't know depends on if they give him his Adderall subscription
Hey, maybe he comes out clean and he's a new man
Maybe maybe he can maintain eye contact with a human being again
Well, dude, that's the scariest thing too looking at his whole transformation journey
Was looking at his interview that he did with um, luke martin like back in early 2019
Right before he started ftx or right as he did one or the other versus where he ended up, right?
You know, he was thin looked in shape was lively actually looked at the camera was having a real conversation
And you're like, okay, this is a you know, it's a real human being right?
Versus seeing the final product of what the stress drugs everything else did to him, dude
It was disgusting
And you know, I think a lot of people can say that to a certain extent, you know
Like with just different phases his was just on a completely different level
Right, like I looked at myself from the beginning of the bull market before it started to the peak
And you know, I had my own little spf transformation where I put on weight
Was not myself
And you know that type of stuff happens, but I I was still able to maintain a conversation with her
Right, like I didn't lose my morals along the way
So well, I mean maybe if you were scamming people out of millions of dollars, it might be harder to make eye contact
That's true. It's true
So, yeah, but anyway, I mean that was that was a huge w this week so definitely worth noting out or pointing out
Yeah, I I do think you're smart again
People are going to look back to this combo and they're going to think back about you know
Just being ahead of the curve right because in crypto again, that's that's the biggest thing that you preach is
If you can be ahead of the curve and be patient because things are flat
Honestly, they're flat and when they're flat, they usually are slowly bleeding
They're flat and slowly bleeding for a long time and then it's like
Vertical right where you don't get a chance to hop on for the ride
So if you have that patience to get in the patience and conviction to get into flat and slowly bleeding
You're going to do well. Eventually. You just have to be the crazy kid on the block for a little bit
But you're in crypto. So
You know like that should be that should be a comfy space to be it's a plus e v to be the crazy person
Um on the block right either you're super left
Bell or you're super right though
but at least you're not mid bow and
Yeah, dude
I think I think a lot of people are gonna like
You know be waiting for that meme coin blow off top and then sit through a 40 percent drawdown
Uh before they even like finally be like fuck
Okay, I should have rotated and then yeah, and it's like the rotation might be up two three four x by then
Dude, I won't lie
You know perfect example of this that i've been through recently
On the meme coin side of things was no chill because if it weren't pytho and wonka and those guys started it
I probably would have dumped my bag sometime in the lows
Right because it went up to x amount then it dropped like 90 percent and it was just kind of sitting there
And like if it weren't those guys
I I probably would have just turbo exited the entire position and not thought twice about it, right?
But because I had a reason to kind of have conviction and if nothing else just like support a friend
Then it just led me to like, you know diamond handing it and since the bottoms it is done like more than a 100 x
And I would have never caught that
Like had it not been for having some deeper level of conviction during that sideways and down and whatever else
You know, so point being sometimes that's what it takes, right?
It's like having whatever x factor to be able to be patient during that turn down
And not fomo that capital into somewhere else
Um, because like trust me there there are periods where I still had a decent enough bag where i'm like, hey
I can you know rotate five figure this like just sell the entire thing
Rotate like five figures into another meme coin where it looks like it's taking on and like I would not have outperformed
Just sitting on it
Yeah, you know like again
sometimes the comfiest place to be
Is to be sideways and down because you know that you have the opportunity to be able to stack something and something that you believe in
Yeah conviction plays
For i'm just talking about like the majority of the market, right? Like I mean in every active meme coin traders portfolio
I would expect probably no higher
For the majority of people there's going to be your outliers, but I think no higher than 50 50 split 50 high conviction plays
Gambling on new sub 1 million shitters
And so yes, I agree
With the high conviction plays, you know, don't necessarily g your bags for 40 loss and chase something else
Your your true shitters like absolutely like don't be capped and save a coin don't
Bag hold that all the way down to zero. Um, if
You know, it's it's not going in the right direction like a lot of these coins, you know are dead within
Fuck 15 minutes, let alone an hour. Um, some last some go up only for two days and then uh, just straight down after that
Yeah, no, i'm definitely trying to be a little bit ahead of the bow curve and uh,
You know rotate at least a portion of my profits now
You know, I didn't catch the pico bottom didn't expect to
Um, I don't expect to sell the pico top
Uh, but I do expect to have a positive rr on the rotation
Yeah, and dude, that's another important thing, right? It like
Being comfortable not catching the pico top is also important
Where you're gonna have positions that will keep running when you exit them and something like you've just got to be okay with that, right?
You know, it's just a natural part of how things go
And we'll get to that point. I I feel like right now
It's more so about the flip side of it where it's about having conviction for the longer term play out at least on the nft side
You know, but I i'll say this I actually think that meme coins are going to be
An integral part of this entire cycle
Um, I brought that up a little while ago. I think they're going to be more deeply rooted than they even were last cycle
Um, I just I don't I mean I definitely see it going through waves where it focuses back into
The real more utility with the majors, etc. But like
I don't know man. I just don't really see this going away
Um at least not this cycle. It just is one of those things where
It's got that stickiness to it that nfts had at the very beginning of the last cycle as well
So realistically, I I think memes and nfts dominate like and it's
It's a little bit weird to say that but I think memes and nfts kind of dominate this next bull market
Um, and I don't think that's changing so
It's the robin hood theory, right? Like that's why most of your most people
One of the og vesuses of crypto in the first place is
Re-leveling that playing field when it comes to
You know being able to make generational wealth and
as your major
Corporations and entities like black rocks are
You know, you don't have that opportunity there anymore and
Now you're gonna need for your hundred thousand x's are memes and shitters and nfts
Until we get the black rocks in the world buying our memes we haven't topped
I'm just gonna put it that like seriously though until the black black rocks in the world
Start buying the memes and the nfts. We have not talked
I I believe that you know, we might have local tops with like mochi signals along the way
But I don't think that that means that they're not necessarily inherently the top
Um, because you know, especially when you look at the gambling culture
That the world is going through right now
Right, like you turn on espn
And espn is basically glorified gambling company now
They really are because
That's what they talk about 50 of the time as they're looking through stuff is like, oh, what prop bet are you gonna make on this truck?
I guess that's tnt but I mean still even tnt
Right, like, you know steve and i smith talking about the line of some game and it just
They're incorporating it because they've absorbed these gambling companies and it's just a way that everybody especially since
Like the gamblification of america and slash of the world in general happened during covet
And I still think that we are just in a deeper rooted sense of that right, you know, like the whole mentality of
When the world rallied around gme and amc and the meme stocks
Like that is going to be amplified on a different level completely
One we're really in the heart of the bull market because in my opinion new retail is not here yet
And when new retail is here
What are they going to gravitate toward naturally like it makes sense. We've seen it happen
In multiple markets before it's going to happen again. So we are still just doing this amongst ourselves
at this point
You know like
The real wave of new retail isn't here yet
Yeah, dude this week
I've had my most
quote unquote normie
three different people this week, uh started texting me about crypto and
What and these are these are the more intelligent ones. These are the ones that you know semi-participated last cycle
and you know have
The very most basic baseline if someone takes me asking me about like should I put 10k in the zk sink?
And I was like, okay, I don't know what videos you're watching
Uh, but stop watching them
And uh, yeah, i've had my most
Interi or most normie texts this week and I would say it's on like the smarter
You know side of the bell
And not more in blank here retail eggs and liquidity type who still do like a two three that maybe even 5x
But then don't know uh, you know back hold it back to zero as everybody does the first couple runs
Yeah, I still haven't really gotten a large number of texts from a lot of people outside of it yet
You know the closest thing that i'll get is
Maybe some of the bros in my bible study
Asking about how my sleep has been or something like that, right?
Like or you know gotten that like I got a couple texts on doge one of my other buddies
That you know, he's a good friend. I wouldn't consider the only thing that I would consider about this
To be a little bit off was that I I sent him, you know
Like I'd send him some no chills like way back in the day and that's done well for him
So he's paid a little bit of attention to the memes
But he texted me something with like a screenshot of like whatever the jews token was
Where you know how there was that minute where for some reason everybody wanted to bid on the super racist?
Um tokens that were out there. He was like, is this actually real?
So yeah, like it actually is real but then I saw that somewhere else and I think it was from a more mainstream
Account that he probably got it from
You know, maybe a little bit more penetration for some of these memes than what we've had to begin with
But I still don't even like have there been tick tock coins that are out there
You know how like safe moon I feel like was a tick tock coin
Yeah, dude, someone sent me. Uh, someone sent me
But it's called ring ai someone sent me a tick tock investor coin this morning
And he was like, what do you think about this?
And it was like it was a tick tock thing and then I watched it and it was you know, the classic
This is my plan to retire
This bull market if you knew what I knew about this
You would be 30 times more bullish than you are now
And so yeah, I guess there is and my response to him was I was like first of all
Don't watch tick tock investor anything. Um
And second I was like to be honest with you I was like i've never even heard of it
And i've never seen anybody that I follow post about it. Now, however, that could be just my ignorance
Um, and I you know will admit that you know, it's possible that you know
It is the next hundred eggs and I just have no idea about it
But yeah, i've never heard of it. So i'm gonna leave you with that
So there are some tick tock coins that are out there right now. I guess so. Yep
Okay, because I but either way I don't feel like any of them have hit these, you know
Just wild wild valuations like what you had with safe moon back in the day, right? Like
Everything that's really hit those wild valuations. I feel like it's been born on the crypto twitter side of things
So, yeah, I I still think that we're a ways away from that when it happens it's gonna happen fast, but um
As much as people say hey this this year looks toffee this year looks toffee like
Yes, maybe there are some local tops but we're not we are nowhere near the top in my opinion
So yeah, you know like there gonna be some opportunities
I don't think it's I think it's one of those things that like when you see down you see sideways when you see anything like
That right now
It's all about having the conviction of where we're heading over the next couple of years
And it also it almost makes the dips on whatever you're in a little bit more comforting
Because you're like, okay, finally I get a chance to take a little bit of a break
move a little bit slower
Because if you've been here long enough, you know what I mean that whenever things are just moving up, you don't get a break
Right as fun as it is as much as the adrenaline keeps you moving
You just don't get a break when things are up only like, you know
Take a guess take a guess at what time I woke up this morning
Yeah, I was like, oh, this is good in uh
This is getting a little outrageous because it's been it's been like that for
Quite a few day or actually almost two months now
Uh, my very bullish sleep schedule is like wake up at 2 30
Uh, and then my bull market nap is like 5 p.m to 8 or 9 p.m
Uh, and then i'm up for like another hour or two then take another hour power to happen and uh, restart
very healthy and very bullish
I respect that. Yeah, dude. I i'm somewhere similar where I I just wake up multiple times throughout the night
and then depending on whatever's happening i'll stay up for x amount of time and
I I slept pretty heavily last night though. Um, I
Had a uh little
delta 8 seltzer
And it just caused me to completely pass out and it was kind of nice
But it almost I forgot how heavy those sleeps can be
And I don't even though I slept and I was knocked out and I didn't really wake up throughout the night
I don't feel like I woke up nearly as refreshed as I would have without it, right?
So I I don't want to say it felt like a hangover
But I didn't feel just fresh waking up either
Uh, that might have been just because you're probably still high when you woke up
I don't know. I don't think so man. I don't think so
But yeah, no man it's
I'm I'm still looking forward to where we're what we've got in store over the next several months
I mean the happening is coming up here in a few weeks
You know if you haven't experienced a happening before i'm just gonna let you know right now
You know the happening is like a come to jesus moment in a way where you know when you say that you accept jesus
Like you are not all of a sudden just this new person. Whatever the happening is the same thing
You're not all of a sudden bitcoin's not this new thing
It's not all of a sudden gonna change and like
you know the second coming
Like the price immediately skyrockets the world changes
You get this new outlook like
It's the same as it was the next day
It's almost like this really lackluster moment where it's just it's it's not what you expect
Whenever it happens, but it is a general shift slash catalyst for that timeline
Um of fundamentals that do eventually drive a bigger change
It's always a nothing burger. In fact most times like
The next couple weeks are typically a little bit red
Immediately after that happening
Just as you know history has shown
Uh, it will be an event though
However, if you're going to the wonky songs meet up because that's going to be during the happening
And uh, we're probably going to be raging a little bit
Um, so we'll be happening to remember for those attendees
Yeah, man, I I don't know the next next couple months are still going to be fun a lot of a lot of good things
to look forward to
But rooster by the way, I I did double check one thing though for coming up
The whole yacht type situation dude, it's it's not something you want
I don't know like one I realized with all of these
Like they've got cap limits on how many people you can only let 12 people on for a booked slash chartered
Anything that I can find up there
Um, you can get a then side boat potentially to be able to like bring more people up there
I don't know dude. It's it's one of those things where
It's not even like it's that much to be able to do it
But with the logistics of everything, I don't know if it's worth it like
Sounds so wonky whale only thing then
Well, I mean hey to be honest
I have the feeling that if we did something like that half the guys in here are so degenerate
That they wouldn't wake up and make it out there at all. Anyway, so we'd probably be fine on the numbers
oh man, um
Yeah, I mean I uh, I I really couldn't uh, we're gonna have a blast regardless of uh, what goes down just
Just hanging out. So, uh, you know not really worried either way it goes. Uh, we'll be fun
regardless
Um, all right, y'all well, it's been real. I actually stayed a little bit longer than I should have on this
I got to get going and um hit the road here in a bit
So love you guys and we will happy easter to everyone. We'll see you guys next week
Cheers, everybody. No chill to a bill stalks to a billion