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WTF IS HAPPENING | STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: April 7, 2025 Duration: 2:00:30Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, traders expressed cautious optimism about the market's potential for recovery amidst ongoing volatility. Key topics included the impact of geopolitical events on market sentiment, strategic investments in resilient sectors like cybersecurity and biotechs, and the anticipation of upcoming earnings reports as indicators of future growth.
Full Transcription
Thank you. All right.
What is up?
What is up, people?
How are we doing today?
You guys ready and excited for another day, another power hour in this market?
What's up, Mike?
Hey, Evan.
How you doing, bud?
What are you watching in this market uh mostly the indexes today i don't think i let's mike let's get let's uh i'm kidding that's like the normal question this is this is a crazy
market we got going on right now uh uh but yeah uh everything we got going on right now um one thing that uh we're right
around even something tells me we're not uh closing the day down uh we're closing the day
down or up by more than one percent something tells me i don't know which way it's gonna be
i'm curious i want to throw it over to you options mike i appreciate you being here i imagine it's
gonna be a little bit of a wild spaces today. Markets and turmoil. Markets and whatever.
How are you doing today, Options Mike? What are you watching?
Do you kind of agree with me? Do you think we're going to be up or down by more than 1% by the end of this power hour?
I mean, I think we're going
to be relatively flat here as we go into tomorrow,
honestly. We had a huge
dump on the open.
We came back. We had a big pop
on news that tariffs were delayed for 90 days,
but that turned out to be a false, you know, misconstrued report. And we're kind of holding
in here. And I think we're waiting now to see what, you know, I think, you know, all eyes on
China overnight. You know, Trump threw down the gauntlet, basically gave them an ultimatum
and said, do you either remove your tariffs now or your tariffs go up by 50% the day after tomorrow?
So I think the market's going to sit tight and wait to see what it gets then.
And we're going to get the Europe response on Wednesday.
So I don't think anything's changed.
We were heavily oversold here.
We're heavily extended down.
We're now in a bear market, right?
Spies in a bear market.
Keys are in a bear market. IWM's in a bear market. Qs are in a bear
market. IWM's in a bear market. I think the Dow hit there as well. So everything's changed. I know
a lot of people are like, okay, yeah, but the bottom's in. For me, I don't know. The low might
be in, but I don't expect a major rip back to the upside to all-time highs here. I think this is
going to be a slow process. Earnings kick in at the end of this week. And boy, what they have to say is going to be probably what the market's going to focus on
at this point. I don't know. I think we just kind of closed flat here, Evan. Honest answer. I think
the market's going to try to hang here and see what we get. Mike, what's worst case outcome from China in your opinion?
They say F you.
Go ahead and we'll retaliate back.
And then they could go out and they could say, okay, we're no longer letting Starbucks sell in our country.
Apple, you can no longer sell into our country.
They could do anything like that if they want to.
And then what about we just did order of magnitudes? What about second worst thing you can do anything like that if they want to. And then what about we just did order of magnitudes?
What about second worst thing you can do?
I can kind of do another retake of what they did last week where they increased the tariffs by 50% back against us.
They put more companies on the list of not able to do business or less business in there.
That's probably the most measured response is something similar to what they've done recently.
What if they don't really add anything new, but just reiterate what they already said. Do you think that
any of that's priced in at all?
That's a good question.
I think if they
do that,
that would be them backing
down in a little bit, and I think
the markets react favorably if they don't
increase and they don't ratchet up
the rhetoric or additional tariffs.
I think one of you were asking about, you know, a one or up one or down one kind of move.
And I think I think we're essentially stuck here in a state of paralysis until at least tomorrow, because if Wednesday is
the reciprocal tariff deadline, right, that means if there's going to be any sort of announcement,
that would most likely means it comes tomorrow. And just given the visceral reaction in the market,
and just given the visceral reaction in the market down for up for down you know up down up down up
down um obviously the everyone is very in tune to just seeing a glimmer of like an offshoot or
some increment it some incremental positive news to at least know that we can take a breath.
I don't know if that's actually what we're going to get.
But when you see reports over the weekend that Trump's top economic advisor is negotiating and reaching out and discussing with over 50 countries is what the report is.
I mean, these are extensive conversations negotiating years and decades worth of,
you know, gamesmanship and trade. These are not, you know, hey, honey, what are you going to order for dinner?
These are very difficult and protracted conversations.
So I think when you see a, you know, we saw the report was not real, but the 90-day moratorium, I mean, I think we just need to turn down the temperature of the
room by potentially pausing. Given the fact that this caught everyone, pretty much that I've spoken
to, off guard from last Wednesday, I really don't know which way this is going to go. I think if Trump backs down, he loses a lot of his negotiating
power. I think they want to make deals. The fact that they're now just making up other bullshit
on top of, well, it's now it's not just a tariff bringing those rates down. Now it's all the unfair
business practices, it's the currency manipulation. This administration,
I'm having a very difficult time understanding what the actual goal of what this nonsense is
trying to achieve. You could look at it from two different things. Obviously, none of us are
economists, or at least I don't think so. from a market-based perspective they've essentially publicly stated their desire
for three things right lower oil prices bringing borrowing costs down and a weaker dollar so
quickly let's just go through all three of those real fast brent crude is trading significantly lower, you know, back to levels of like 2021.
That's helpful for the economy.
It brings down inflation because we all know oil's a read-through to every, basically anything.
It also lowers prices at the gas pump, which is hugely important for like middle America.
Number two, interest rates.
They have come down, not nearly what people are looking for. They've
talked about that three-legged stool of 333. When you have a 10-year that's stuck, I think that
tells me that they need the Fed to cut rates. It is no longer just jawboning. We're in a full
bear market. If your base case at this point almost has not shifted towards a recession or at least having a decent.
But the Fed is so the Fed's not going to step in here. I mean, I hear you, but the Fed is this is not a this crisis is politically made.
They're not going to step in. I 100 percent agree. This is a conflicted wound.
self-inflicted wound. It's more just, you know, you know, that Fed put, where does it, where does
it reside? We're down 20 in, in a very short amount of time. You know, you start to worry about
something breaking in the system. And then the third point I was going to make is the dollar,
and the dollar has been crashing for three months. So, and of course, all for the wrong reasons,
namely a big markdown in growth expectations. So for me, this suggests like
the administration is accomplishing its market based goals in real time. The 10 year is the one
that kind of hangs me up because it's not as low as they probably want to see it. But then it's
the other goals where it's these are just difficult. It's, you know, reducing the federal budget deficit.
And, you know, these tariffs, if they're actually a legitimate source of revenue and demand can stay high, you know, that's $300, $600 billion a year.
It's manufacturing.
It's rebuilding the middle class.
It's onshoring supply chains.
Is it reducing the trade deficits with this goofy math that they came up with?
Is it reducing the trade deficits with this goofy math that they came up with?
Or is it just jawboning these countries to lowering their barriers, to which I would say, you've had 50 some odd countries come to the table willing to lower their barriers.
A number, Thailand, Argentina, Vietnam, they've actually already said, we explicitly, we are going to either eliminate it or we're going to match you at whatever rate.
So the fact that the administration doesn't even seem to be willing to negotiate means that perhaps they have a very high tolerance of pain that we all collectively under misrepresented or misunderstood.
we all collectively under misrepresented or misunderstood.
And when you see a market like this, essentially in free fall,
it's pretty disconcerting to not even have, you know,
communication or some semblance of a plan coming from both the White House
and I guess the Fed, because the Fed is stuck.
You know, they still didn't beat inflation and they're in a box now.
So I like to like pretty much spot on, but to like add color to it, basically the move in the 10 years is saying whatever they're doing is undermining their credibility and like creating more risk by taking parties away from the table.
Basically saying you're going to have to have higher borrowing costs.
You don't really have the cards here, which is also kind of frightening.
Because if you just go back to Saturday, Friday, whatever day you want to use,
people are using that as just like the pulpit for, oh, look, it's working.
So if you're using that logic, then at this point, it's basically screaming against,
you know, in their face, like,
hey, whatever you're doing is not working.
And then the big one for me,
based on everything you said,
some of these countries that come to the table
was Argentina.
Because anytime we seem to have some sort of
understanding, clarity, cogent consistency of like, okay, this person
is saying X and this is how the rhetoric is going to go. They trot a new guy out that
just basically undermines the last guy, which just creates even more confusion and chaos.
Yeah, those are fair points.
The other thing today that's different than the last couple
days and try to take it a little bit from politically to the market here we haven't
there was no margin calls today for the most part friday was it is absolute unbelievable amount of
margin calls if we didn't get that bounce today which notice it came right just a little before
11 you know right at 10 o'clock and we held it through 11, you would have seen another horrific afternoon of margin calls going out.
And for the life of me, I can't figure out why these funds are still sitting there leveraged up
and not leveraging, or they just can't. They're just so trapped at this point.
That's probably, to me, the next leg down, the last leg down, is you have to clear out the last
of this leverage. Forget what's going on politically it definitely affects us but that right there is it's going on and also the vix is staying up around 50. the vix came off
the highs from 60 earlier this morning but it's still elevated and it's not coming in kind of
saying it doesn't think this is over yet yeah it used to it used to get pressed up against 30 and
then the the machines would kind of like start selling it um
and then they would just go the opposite way now it's getting now it's doing the opposite it gets
down to like a 40 level and then just bid it back up so i know it's like crude math but when you
have a vix that's at 50 what's the math on that that's like an average daily move of three, correct? Yeah, about two, eight, three.
Well, look at the price of options.
I haven't touched an option today, and I advise most of my members to be very careful.
If we pop and the VIX come scratching down, it's going to be very hard to make options work for you in this market.
The IV crush is going to be unbelievable.
Options are priced about three plus times their normal price right now. You gotta be so careful
I've been trading futures contracts and stock all day long. Nothing else
And then on the flip side though Mike when things start to get a little saying when that that'll work in your favor
If you wanted us put sellers or or a seller
But even people to me who had cover calls coming into this are
like they're not coming down you know they're not decaying i'm like it's because the iv the
iv is killing you have to wait for the iv market to pop for them to work yeah really this environment
for for premium sell for me is just like trying to find companies that i want to own at levels
i'm comfortable owning them and there's's just companies that I would know through and through.
And then just kind of selling that premium there.
And if I get called, I get called.
I'm good with owning it.
That's the only way I'd play it currently.
Nice.
I appreciate you. I appreciate that conversation that's going on there stock talk i want to sam actually what's up with you uh how you feeling today what are you watching
this market um i made quite a good amount of buys this morning and before we jump back into the
macro because i know we've been talking about macro a lot and you know while it is very important i
think macro is extremely important but when you're're kind of thinking of what you want to buy
in this market, if you are buying, it really is about targeting the fundamentally strong companies
and the secular trends. And for me today, this morning, I've been buying a lot of cybersecurity
stocks, of course, Amazon and Google as well, but really targeting the cybersecurity market.
Because when I think of cybersecurity, I could definitely see this continuing to have its tailwind,
I wouldn't say regardless of the macro scenario in terms of the valuation. But when it comes to
IT budget, cybersecurity generally is, I wouldn't say the last place, but one of the places that
tends to have a sticky budget as far as where money is allocated toward IT.
And that's mostly because really no matter what happens, there will always be intruders trying to get into your company's data,
trying to steal the PII or trying to get information to either use against you or to either sell to the black market.
And that's why I'm wholly just bullish cybersecurity in general.
I put a post
up in Ness that I posted about an hour ago. Some companies that I did buy this morning,
a little bit less on the higher valuations one, but the ones that had the valuation compressed
quite a good amount. Bought CrowdStrike. CrowdStrike is endpoint security management,
more on the client end. Palo Alto is more of network security, but also platformization as a whole.
Also by Cloudflare, they're getting a little bit into the cybersecurity space,
but they're pretty much one of the major DNS proxies for about 20% to 25% of the internet traffic around the entire world.
And Rubrik is data security that has to do with securing and
scanning all of your backups that are managed on the cloud versus on-prem. And the reason why this
is pretty important for all of these companies all around is because they're not specifically
tied or dependent on one cloud provider or even on-premises backups. They're independent of that.
So you could be in GCP, you can be in AWS, you could be in Azure
and whatever it is, and you could still utilize each one of these platforms at scale and be able
to be comfortable staying with the leaders if you're investing in a company like this. Like all
these are leaders in their space. And in a market like this, I really don't want to put money towards
speculative assets, but something more of what I know. And I'm a proponent that speculation or speculative positions are more of the eye of the beholder
or eye of the investor.
But for me, this is really what I believe in and what I think will still be very strong
even when the bull mark comes back or even maybe a few years down the road if it does
come back and does take that some time to come back.
But yeah, just wanted to throw that out there because I know there's a lot of macros to talk about. Appreciate your time.
Appreciate you, Sam. Gary, let's throw it over to you. How are you doing today, Gary?
I don't know if you can hear me. I'm in my car. I just had to get my dog's nails clipped.
I don't know if you can hear me. I'm in my car. I just had to get my dog's nails clipped.
So I'm not like Mike who's taking a, who took a bleeding kid to the hospital.
So it's not exactly an emergency. And Mike, I hope the kid's okay. Everything's good.
He's good. Thank you. You know, it happens.
Yeah, not to throw it back there, but I told my guys, if you're in your 20s, if you're in your 30s, you should be buying. I don't care if we haven't hit the bottom.
Go and look back 20-year chart or a 30-year chart, depending on what your age is.
Just go and look at the S&P and go and buy VOO.
Go and buy QQQ.
Go and buy whatever you can right now if you've got cash. NOW IF YOU HAVE CASH. AND THE REASON IS WHEN YOU SAW THAT POP THIS MORNING OF I THINK 8%, 9%, 10%,
THAT WAS YOUR OPPORTUNITY FOR WHEN SOMETHING COMES OFF. IT DOESN'T MEAN THAT IT'S GOING TO
HAPPEN FROM HERE, BUT IT WILL HAPPEN AND IT WILL HAPPEN WAY FASTER THAN YOU THINK.
SO TO SAM'S POINT, IF YOU CAN GET CYBER SECURITY STOCKS ON SALE, who the F is pulling back on cybersecurity even if we do go into a recession?
So I think you pick your battles.
I was one of these people that sold NVIDIA under 100 because I was taking profits.
But I can always buy back in.
And that's what people don't understand. When I put out that I was tax loss harvesting, I took some gains on stocks that I had huge gains on. And I don't care if I
buy them back at a higher price, but I still have the opportunity to buy them. I just don't think
that we've hit low lows right now. I think you get into trouble when you have China and Trump.
But I think Gene Munster put it best.
I think it's June 14th and 15th, if I'm right.
That is Xi Jinping's birthday and Donald Trump's birthday.
There will be a love fest on June 14th and 15th.
Flip a coin, whichever one you want to bet on.
But I think that love fest comes to happen. and they just wish each other a happy birthday.
So I'm in the buyer of I raised 40 percent cash between Thursday and Friday.
But for instance, I sold Apple at 195.
The average purchase price for me was like three dollars and 40 cents.
That's how long I buy and hold.
And I'm not worried about a 40% downturn in Apple.
I'm not worried about the multiple of Apple.
I am worried about the next three years of Apple.
But let's be honest, Tim Cook is going to promise $500 billion in actual investment in the U.S.
And then in the next administration, he may not have to spend it.
And maybe the taxes come off. So I think it's just a matter of your time frame.
And again, I'm not an options guy. You know, Mike is right that I think during these times,
I may be the only one who actually traded around Black Monday in 1987 on this spaces. But I did.
I remember I was a 17 year old kid with about $5,000 in the market
that quickly went to about $2,500 within a few days. I still remember that feeling. And God,
if I had hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars, like I have today to actually buy,
my ass would be buying at 17 years old. So I hope that hits somebody's ears.
Mike?
So I'll jump in on that. And I like it. I first started trading just after the financial
crisis. Maybe trading is not the right word. it was investing. And in that November, October, November timeframe,
I just started buying companies.
I was buying companies like GM and Ford.
I was buying things I didn't know anything about at that time,
like FAS and the SPX, stuff like that.
And I just sat and held it and I made a ton of money,
except for Ford.
Ford went bankrupt and disappeared.
I lost 100% of my investment in Ford.
But to his point, I don't know that – what I would say here is – and I'm not buying yet today, although I've been contemplating it.
You don't go all in here.
If you have a lot of cash, and I do right now, you go in in pieces because we can definitely go lower. I'm
not trying to scare anybody. You know, guys, I tend to be bullish, but we could go down to a 10%
plus. This could be a long-term event. But if you want to buy the SPY, buy like a quarter size of
it. If you want to buy NVIDIA, buy a quarter size. Don't feel the need, though, to go all in and just sit there.
And don't do what I did is don't buy these leveraged ETNs because they will be the kiss of death if we go lower.
Buy just regular SPY and QQQs.
I didn't know any better.
So I got lucky.
But, you know, trying to help you guys out, share some knowledge.
Yeah, I agree.
I mean, for most people, I mean, stock picking is just not easy.
Like, this is not an easy game.
And I'm by means, like, no warm-up or anything.
But I would say 95% of people in the world just do what your 401k does,
where you just buy the indices every week and just forget about it right
that way you don't need to pay attention to noise you don't need to read all this stuff and whatever
just keep buying and uh if the market's not higher 40 years from now well i don't know i think we
might have bigger problems than that but at the same time you know it's this is a tough game like
this is not an easy game i think everyone everyone listening here, they're looking for advice. They're looking for confirmation advice, whatever it is.
But when it comes to not wanting to put in the effort of paying attention to this stuff every day,
then you still want to be in a market, but you want like the lowest risk possible.
You know, there's obviously different ways to do it.
But generally, this is the reason why 401ks are just buying every single week or two whenever the pay step comes to it.
And let me just give a tip here.
Back in 1987 when I was trading during that Black Monday, you had to pay $50 in commission to actually trade.
That requires you to enter an A-plus setup.
And you had to, by the way, call a broker on the phone in order to actually buy stock.
The tip that I gave my folks in my newsletter today is,
if you want to trade something during this time,
take $50 out of your trade, pay it commissioned to yourself,
buy VOO or QQQ or whatever, SPY or any ETF, and you don't touch that.
That is commission to yourself.
Save it.
So if you're in your 20s, you're going to pay $50 commission for every trade.
That may get you out of bad trades.
Just that mental capacity of, oh, shit, I've got to pay a commission to get in
this trade. Because while I'm an experienced trader and I think I can get in and out and my
wins are usually pretty good, everybody makes mistakes. And even I could make a mistake in
this one. But if your setup is not A plus and it's going to cost you $50,
you may have just saved yourself a trade.
So I would say bring commissions back, but you're paying yourself, and it's just stock that you just don't touch.
nice let's go over to uh to ryan
Nice. Let's go over to Ryan.
all right let's go over to logical how you doing yeah i'm doing good um mostly just um
i'm actually buying things today for sure very aggressively um you know obviously we could go
lower but i'm mostly focused on uh sectors that I think can do well, regardless of what happens and kind of actually because of what's happening.
And, you know, clearly they want to get rates down.
So I'm looking for names that I think can do well in a slowing economy and names that can do well if interest rates come down.
So, you know, that's kind of my base case here.
I'm leaning into I've always been talking about biotechs.
I continue to add to those every single day.
We're basically at, I mean, the epitome of lows in this sector.
It's extremely hated.
It's extremely pessimistic.
Yes, I'm catching falling knives.
But when I see the value that I'm seeing out here, you know, companies basically trading
below cash on the balance sheet, it feels tough to win.
And I mean, I may have to deal with further downside because nobody's really touching these things. But I think
it would take very little positive sentiments to get these things to be much, much higher than
they are today. So yeah, biotechs, I'm very heavily leaning into and I've actually started
accumulating home builders as well. They showed a lot of strength on Friday when the market was
down 6%. Many individual
home builders were up 5% putting in bullish engulfings on the day. So that's kind of telling
you the way direction that rates are heading. You could have seen rocket companies up 11% on 7x
volume on Friday. So I think housing cyclicals are potentially going to work from here. So yeah,
so those are two sectors that I'm leaning into heavily. And otherwise, just, you know, buying companies that you like at good prices. I mean,
I think the buying opportunity today is much, much better than it was two months ago. And so
at the end of the day, yes, you can be a trader and put your hat on and say, hey, look, you know,
these stocks could easily go lower. I understand that. But I have my fundamental investor hat on,
and it's a little different. And I'm obviously going to manage my risk along the way. If we're
going to go into a great financial crisis or something, then I'll change my mind and I'll
take it on the chin and maybe exit more and raise more cash. But for the time being,
we just did a ton of carnage in the market and fixes extremely high and we haven't even seen any sort of relief bounce.
So, yeah, I would rather be positioned in things that I think can do well if we have a prolonged downturn.
I think things that are going to be kind of, in a sense, counter cyclical to what has been working.
So, yeah, that's where I'm focused is finding value with my fundamental investor
head on, um, and just kind of waiting it out and, you know, continuing to add it on dips and
yeah, just rotating my portfolio greatly. Um, it looks very different than I did a year ago today.
So yeah, um, obviously I think that tech has always been kind of the heavy part of this market.
There's just not enough liquidity in the system to uphold $3 trillion market caps across several companies. And that to me has always been the
biggest risk. And, you know, while I understand people want to add to quality and, you know,
buy those things, you know, it could take a while for those to kind of bottom out. And I think a lot
of other sectors are basically bombed out clearly before this. So, yeah. And again, if we have a
prolonged economic slowdown or even
recession, then those companies that have a ton of consumer exposure are going to be the ones that
are going to get hit the hardest, in my view. Right now, I think the market is just killing
all stocks equally. But I think as the picture becomes more clear of what this is, then you're
going to have kind of a bifurcation in the market of what works and what
doesn't. And the other scenario is they retrace everything, they retract everything about these
tariffs and market heads back up highs. There's some sort of really good resolutions. And in that
case, you know, maybe I'll switch back to owning more tech and those kinds of things. But for now,
you know, if where we're headed is where I think we're headed, it's going to be an economic slow
down. It's gonna be lower rates. And I want to be in companies that are
going to benefit from that and that are trading at extremely low valuations. Again, I think what
really works in your favor is buying things that are very cheap and before they begin to increase
their sales and their profits. Like, I don't think, you know, if we have this economic slowdown,
consumer slowdown, you know, people are still going to buy medicine and those kinds of things.
And I think that that's not really going to stop or slow any sort of the progression we're seeing in different biotech companies.
So, yeah, I mean, it's a very big bet, obviously.
But if you look at some of the, like, facts and details around how bad it is in that sector. Clearly, it could get worse, but we are essentially at the extreme pessimism,
like on par with the 2022 lows, the lowest points ever in this sector.
So, I mean, if you're going to take a stab, it's got to be here.
That's my thought.
Yeah, that's just a great example that conviction and also well i would say even
speculation is really in the eye i've invested i'm not saying that that is a speculative asset
because clearly there's a lot of value there but when it comes to companies that you want to own
like that it really just depends on the person i guess you can provide
you can have due diligence that you read about maybe watch a video or something but i just feel
like when you're like in there in the weeds actually doing the research and you feel like
this is a great company to own for the long term i think that is really what's going to help you hold
through additional drawdown if we do get that drawdown because nothing at all is promising we're going to go higher from here. Nothing. Well, I mean, to go up, you need a change, right? Something has to happen.
You need the tariff relief to come in or certainty to come in there. The consumer is another part of
the problem. And we're not really talking about that today, but we talked about last week, right?
The consumer is a big part of what's going on here as well and now you have earnings season so something
has to change the mantra has to change i haven't seen that here today today is just a oversold
overly extended bounce and then we go but i agree with you um buy good companies i mean you know the
only thing i'll say to you guys as well is buy good companies. Don't buy crap companies.
Buy good companies that are good because they're going to be there.
They're going to survive.
Be careful buying companies that are loaded in debt and they're not making money.
That's not where you want to be in a market like this.
Yeah.
I mean, there's a reason why the mega caps, as far as tech goes, now this isn't speaking for other sectors or anything,
mega caps as far as tech goes now this isn't speaking for other sectors or anything but as
far as tech goes the mega caps usually generally hold their value the most because they have
weathered storms of multiple bear markets and multiple recessions and so on uh maybe not some
of the newer ones but that's the reason why they generally are safe haven whenever it comes to uh
drawdown in the market and And again, not comparing to other
sectors, but I'm talking about tech specifically, mega caps usually are able to hold their reins
because they're still able to print cash on an operating basis as well as a free cashflow basis
to their shareholders, regardless of any environment. So we'll see. Well, actually,
I take it back. 2022 is pretty brutal, but at the same time,
everything was generally not performing well in 2022 on a fundamental basis.
But look at the ones that came back the strongest. So, you know, like anyone else says,
even logical as well, like it doesn't have to be tech as well. Like there's certainly value
everywhere in the market. You just have to look and you just have to have the conviction
to be able to hold onto it and buy more as it's going down.
Yo, Evan, you good?
He's just taking notes.
I guess he just broke his brain.
Evan's buying here.
He just went out and started buying.
Yeah, he's buying.
He might be talking shit about me.
Here we go, guys.
We're not talking shit about you.
We're just making sure you're okay, bro.
One of those days, one of those days. You're okay, bro. One of those days.
One of those days.
I was doing some unmute problems,
but a lot of heat's been thrown on the spaces so far,
and you should make sure you're following the speakers.
Already 1,100 people.
Something tells me we're not going to close this day within 1%.
I think it's within 2%.
I think we're closing this up or down by 2%.
This next 30 minutes, hour is going to be going.
Before I unleash a stock talk rant,
or stock talk tariff talk rant for the day,
does anyone else have any other topics
that want to jump in quickly?
Can you hear me, Evan?
Oh, actually, we also got Jeffrey coming up here.
So Wolfie, we'll go to you, then we'll go to Jeffrey.
Yeah, yeah, my question, I have a question for you.
What do you think the as the native headline presenter um you know stock
headline guy what'd you make of this walter bloomberg story about an accidental headline
that moved the market seven percent this morning is that what it was i saw it was like cnbc
so it picked it up from somewhere and like CNBC picked it up from somewhere
and then everyone else picked it up.
He picked it up from Walter Bloomberg.
Did they really?
And now he's getting dragged by the FT
and some other articles saying
there's a fake headline and blah, blah, blah.
I do not know.
I don't know.
I haven't looked into it at all.
Walter, from my understanding,
he just copy-paste from other places, you know?
Copy-paste from the Bloomberg Terminal.
So my thought is that would have been out somewhere else before.
Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe...
I know he tries to do stuff. I'd have to go and find the tweet
that they're talking about.
We'll search Walter Bloomberg. Is it going to come up?
Yes.
Yeah, it is.
Making the rounds.
The headline was because kevin hassett who's trump's economic advisor was on fox news this morning and he was asked if the administration would
consider a 90-day pause that's what i believe in hate tweeting last night, that's what Ackman has been calling for, Lloyd Blankfein, former CEO at Goldman, on and on.
A lot of people are just saying, hey, let's just collectively bring down the temperature in the room.
And it was calling for a pause.
Somehow, like the transcript was then misinterpreted at a very specific point.
It caught like one headline.
And as you know, then Twitter just explodes.
So if I'm not mistaken, it was just an inaccurate report of a 90-day pause on these tariffs.
So it was just like a huge burst of confidence.
And I think it was just like a huge burst of confidence. And I think it was just quickly
dismissed by the White House as the old fake news. But it does show you what the possibilities are,
just in case. And my take on this, that had to have been discussed at some point in time for this to actually happen.
You're saying like a potential leak? See what's out there?
I think Fox News. It just so happened to be Fox News. That's a little convenient.
Hey, I've done a bunch of TV hits for Fox News. They're okay over there.
Oh, I'm not saying they're not okay. I'm just saying, if it were on TV.
Was it Fox Business?
If it were a leak on CNN.
That I don't know. Fox Business and Fox News are very different animals.
True.
Yeah. So I heard a sort of reel from the Einstein of Wall Street guy where he was basically saying that it was Ackman's recommendation that they have an angry pause.
Sorry, Jeff. Sorry.
My bad. I didn't ask myself that it was just the Ackman recommendation to take the pause that was flipped to be like
they're gonna do it it was just probably either somebody short covering or whatever or just
basic you know telephone line rumor mill type of stuff that got there and as for kevin hassett You remember this man is the author of the 1999 book Dow 36,000, which I jokingly suggested to totally flawed premise in his 1999 book based upon the last seven years that we were going to hit Dow 36,000 in seven years after 1999.
So I took him to task in my Super Boom book where we i accurately forecasted down 38 000 so
i'm also looking at if i could just dive in i i was at a conference down in florida in november
and steve moore you know one of these um advisors of trump's over the years he has a put out a book
with art laffer the The Trump Economic Miracle.
And I just cracked it open.
I'm reading the premise.
And they're saying that when they met Trump in 2016, Larry, that's Larry Kudlow, who interestingly is not part of the economic advisory group now, who always seemed to have
some credibility and sense to him.
He said a few months earlier, this is back in 2016, Larry Kudlow and Steve Moore penned a piece in National View called Smoot-Hawley Trump,
arguing that Trump could wreck the economy should he follow in the footsteps of Herbert Hoover, the last and disastrously protectionist president.
Hoover signed the infamous Smoot-Hawley tariff,
the bill that exacerbated the Great Depression by inciting a global trade war. So just some of the things we're looking at out here. Probably not at the bottom. People are looking for technical
levels. I think, I don't want to use the word I think, I don't know is the real answer. No one
knows. The technical levels are pretty moot right now. I mean, yeah, we're looking like we're bouncing off those
just under 5,000 levels.
But, you know, buckle up is basically my advice to everybody.
Thankfully, our stops got us out of some things.
And we did have our seasonal sell signal last week.
Hard to get out of that stuff in the down draft but uh i've been
talking about down q1s being troublesome looking forward the the the patterns of post-election
years being the most troubling i flipped my worst case scenario to about 50 percent i'll probably
get some bounces here some covers but you know there's an
old quote from a friend that uh you know bear markets are like watching or they don't go
straight down they're like watching a basketball bounce up and down a rock strewn mountainside
they go up down sod was all over the place so um the world's changed in a couple days
um the world's changed in a couple days hey jeffrey just just to add to the technical thing
um we bounced off of the prior highs from 2021 on both the s&p and the nasdaq so you know just
the technical bounce if it holds it holds but if it doesn't initially yeah yeah but if it doesn't
hold it's yeah i mean we could go back i mean my
partner and i are talking about you you want to go back you want to go big go to the pre-covid
highs that's like what 33 80 30 400 i mean there's not a whole lot of support between here and there
or anywhere right now but yeah we bounced off that 2021 that was one of the lines that carter
worth had drawn up drawn up there on the CNBC chart stuff.
Yeah, just prior highs, below that, you've got a 200-week, you know, 47, call it.
You know there's issues when they start flipping from the 200-day moving average to the 200-week moving average, right?
The weekly is important, too, because it's right in line with the pivot it had when it first started to fall apart in late December, early 2022.
And then beyond there, you don't really have anything until you get to like, you know, 4,100 for a blip.
And then you got 37, 33, et cetera.
So, yeah, just I just wanted to.
I mean, I had an uptrend line from the April 24 low through the August 24 low that just blasted right through.
100%.
I'm just pointing out that that was like, like the level we bounce that today is basically like the saving grace.
And then there's only like one, one level below it outside of that.
And it's just, you know, buckle up.
There's some things that I'm working on here that I'll be putting out for subscribers about waterfall declines.
We're looking at this two-day drop that everyone's looking at.
You know, we're starting to see, you know, when you have the Sunday night specials on Bloomberg and CNBC, wherever else, you're starting to get there.
else you're starting to get there but the sentiment just started to turn so um jeffrey i will one
But the sentiment just started to turn.
thing i will say we were live on spaces last night we're not normally live on spaces last night
we had 3k people in there sign awesome yeah i played golf yesterday i was one of them there
are signs though i'd like to ask if any of the fundamental folks i think the anticipated earnings for the
s&p are like 280 bucks i don't think we get there anywhere close um my my my my estimate that i'm
kind of looking at is like 235 but i don't know what that would put on uh the s&p at if we were
at a 15 multiple is there anybody like fundamentally sound that does those
kind of estimates that you guys know about? My friend and old friend Sam Stovall, I had him on
my podcast on Friday. We haven't put it all out there yet. We're still editing it. But he was
talking about that recessions begin, you know, average recessions begin with the S&P PE of like
15.6. And we were still up at 23, so plenty of room to come down there.
There's just a lot of scrambling for fundamental technical sentiment indications of lows.
And I mean, people are asking me, does the market make bottoms on Fridays?
Like when people stop asking, is this the bottom?
That's when you got a bottom, you know?
It's just everyone's still looking for that so so
everyone the the the question you asked based on like where earnings are at like today and just
assume there's some sort of drag just light drag without knowing what the real numbers are um that
15 multiple puts you at like 3,300. But the opinion is...
There's that number down there.
There's that 333.
But the reality is that a lot of these earnings are going to get revised.
And I think, unfortunately, with some of the bigger ones having such high multiple expansion, like low growth, you know, that number could be
the number you gave out could be conservative, which would be like, you know, who knows, right?
But keep in mind, too, we've seen net downgrades every single week this year for the S&P. So the
problem, though, is those are downgrades for the first quarter once the
banks are it's either later this week or it's beginning next week i can't remember but once
these banks are recording uh um i think the next thing the next perhaps shoe to drop would be a
scenario in which you start hearing from multiple companies not only do they
perhaps guide down but perhaps even worse is they just remove guidance altogether
right what's something along the lines of there's there's too much uncertainty
the the pieces there are everyone's gonna lower guidance. Sorry? Why would you even give forward guidance?
Why would any CEO in their right mind give any guidance right now?
But I think that's dangerous.
They kind of have to on a call at some point.
The comment he just made is, from the space you guys had last week,
is Dan Niles' opinion, where they'll probably remove guidance
so they don't have to be held to a bar.
One thing that I would say, the market does not care about anything right now except for tariffs.
If I was one of these companies, if I have bad news, I'm posting it today.
That is 100% correct.
What are you saying?
Only tariffs matter. 100% correct.
You're saying the market only cares about tariffs right
now at this point in time yes that is all the market cares about right now we got tom lee
giving out a mea culpa we had we had nfp on friday no move we had your danny's gun no move
lowered everything this market only cares about tariffs right now for better for worse obviously
uh earnings and everything matters.
But tariffs headlines are going to move us.
I think if I was a company with a negative headline, I'd slip it right now.
I would maybe even remove my guidance right now above what I think is going to be.
Every single company removing their guidance this quarter.
Apple's not going to tell us anything, that's for sure.
New tariff.
Top.
iPhone coming. new tariff top iphone coming
yeah um stop trading
unless unless unless you can trade up and down with these things i know there's people
they trade this volatility that's not my game so, I think, the only people that are going to have.
Anyway, I'll be quiet.
No, I appreciate you, Jeff.
Definitely make sure you're going in here following the speakers.
Appreciate everyone.
Stock talk.
I think it's your time.
It's the daily rant.
We got 11 minutes to close.
I don't know if you made any moves today.
And then what are you watching this market?
What's up, guys?
I did do a little buying today, actually.
I bought some Amazon leaps 2027 leaps
Let's go, but not in incredibly big size or anything
But I did take some nibbles. I mean
At this point am I very very negative on the macro situation? Yes
I still am as I've been talking to you guys about for the past couple weeks here.
But after a three-day historic sell-off,
I mean, the probability for a bounce is probably improving.
From a mechanical standpoint,
I will say today's bounce is pretty pathetic.
Like, after a two-day sell-off
like we got Thursday and Friday,
you would have expected,
if we were going to go red to green today,
to be able to get 2% or 3% of upside on the indexes
and hold it.
You know, even if we were going to give that back tomorrow,
that would have been a little bit better to see
from an enthusiasm standpoint.
But like, what are we, barely holding green
or actually red here into the close down
about 0.8 i would have liked to see more enthusiasm behind the bounce that wasn't exactly
confidence inspiring um if you will from from a technical standpoint i mean we just have so much
work to do on the daily chart for spy to get back above the moving averages that it's going to be really hard to look at
any bounce in this market and just chase it.
It's going to be really hard to do that.
And I've mentioned this before, but the way that I trade, the style that I trade, I don't
intend to catch the bottom.
In fact, I will not catch the bottom.
But what I want to do is be able to put size back on
the long side when i feel like the technical structure has started to repair we are a long
long long way from that we would need like three weeks of very green action to to rebuild on the
daily on spy at best maybe you could do it in two weeks but it'd have to be a face ripping
move um you know the 200 day moving average in the sb 500 is all the way up to 570
we were there a couple of weeks ago um now we're obviously a lot lower so it's going to take some
work to get there i mean we had a nice push this, got up all the way to like 520-ish.
And it seemed like maybe we'd get a breakout back to the upside and a little bit of a reversal.
We didn't get that.
So that was, again, a little disappointing.
But on an individual stock basis, there's names like Amazon that I'm like, okay, look, if I nibble on a couple leaps here, Amazon goes a little lowerble on a couple more I think that'll be fine so I did do that today some of
the 200s for June 2027 is what I got outside of that I didn't buy anything
but I didn't notice again I talked about this a lot but compare the way I look at
markets is different than the way most people look at markets because I don't look at markets in a sector view.
You know, when you hear a lot of market commentators, they'll talk about like, oh, XLV is up today, healthcare getting a bid or, you know, XLE is down or, you know, oh, we're looking at a rotation into healthcare from energy or whatever.
I don't look at markets in that view because I'm a long, short equity trader. oh, we're looking at a rotation into healthcare from energy or whatever.
I don't look at markets in that view because I'm a long, short equity trader.
And so for me, the alpha is in the industry action, not in the sector action.
Because when you see a sector outperforming, usually, it's not always the case. Usually there's a sector or two sectors or three sectors, sorry, an industry or two industry or three industries within that sector that are leading
that move. That's typically how it works. And so for me, I look at markets on an industry
point of view, and that gives me, I feel a better ability to find market-leading stocks and relative-strength stocks.
So I have like a basket of how many stocks are on there right now?
998.
There were actually like 1,100 on it two weeks ago, but I've cut it down significantly.
There's 998 stocks on the list I have right now, and they branch out over 20 industries.
And I look at them every day
and part of the reason we got defensive at the end of February which was ended up being perfect
timing that was a day away from the top was because a lot of times this individual stock
action will give you I don't want to say a clue but but it'll give you a perspective on market attitude.
Prior to the big drop off of the indexes, which started on the 21st,
there was a lot of obvious deleveraging action, at least in my view, it was obvious,
in individual stocks.
And the moves down, you were seeing like on half a percent moves down in the S&P 500.
And this is, I'm talking about between Feb 10th and Feb 20th.
The moves down you were seeing in the S&P 500 were pretty muted.
They were like half a percent down, 0.3 percent down.
But individual stocks, including MAG7 names, were dropping three, four, five percent.
That to me was concerning, especially when momentum leaders of the market, you know, your favorite fin twid names, your popular retail names were getting clobbered on very, very little index pressure.
That was a sign for me to get hedged at that time.
And we did.
And it ended up paying up well for us.
But I'm starting to see that action now, a little bit of that action on the flip side.
Where a lot of individual
names are failing to respond to market pressure. Like on a day like today, you'd have expected
mostly everything to be red. And the pre-market, it was. And intraday, we got that balance,
a lot of stuff started reversing. But as the action settled out midday, and we started
consolidating around that red to green spot in the S&p 500 a lot of stuff found its way continuing to the upside a lot of individual stocks and
like now looking at my list at end of day here obviously you know we're not nearly as as deep
of selling as we saw this morning there's a lot of names great so is that starting to show that, you know, maybe individual stock sellers are getting exhausted here?
Maybe.
But again, we have a lot of work to do on a technical basis.
So I think we're sort of in no man's land here where, yes, we're very oversold.
And as a product of that, you probably are going to see a monster counter trend rally at some point soon.
I don't know how much long this downside can continue.
Like we can only get a couple more four or 5% days before it's literally like
you're going to be out of sellers.
So I think we're getting close to a local bottom for a counter trend rally,
but I mean,
rewind the clock lane last night,
Jack was on our space.
He brought up the.com bubble and all the counter trend rallies.
You don't even need to go back that far.
Just go back to 2022 and look at the action there.
Like, I mean, pull up a spy chart.
Anybody in the audience can do this and go back to 2022.
You'll be like, oh shit, that looks hard to trade.
And it was.
Because when you get these massive drawdowns
into a bear market territory where we are now,
or where we were this morning, I should say,
we're not anymore in the S&P 500,
but broadly in this 15 to 20% off all-time highs range,
you get really choppy action.
And you get massive 10, 12, I think even in 2022,
we had a 13% counter-trend rally.
And I'm talking about at the index level.
Do you know what a 13% counter-trend rally looks like in the S&P 500 when people are massively short a bunch of the individual names?
It looks pretty explosive.
You know, it looks like 3%, 3.5% up on one day, individual stocks up 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10% a pop.
And you continue that for three or four days, people start to think
it's a bottom really quickly.
You know, people are like, oh, wow, everything's going up now.
Like, this is it.
We've been sold.
We've been sold, oversold for so long.
This is your rally.
This is the bottom.
And they buy it up.
And then they get stuffed.
I mean, that's precisely what happened in the first three months of 2022.
You had selling.
People bought it back. Countertrend rally up 9%, boom, back down 12% to new lows.
Same thing happened going into the summer.
You had an 11% counter trend rally to the upside, boom, back down to new lows.
And before you know it, peak to trough, we were down 27%, 28% on the S&P 500 in 2022.
So is that going to happen again? Um, I don't know,
but to kick off the year, the action's pretty similar. And if you look at the news cycle and you're looking for hope, which a lot of people were, I mean, people were kind of like confused
as to why we got the big sort of gap down in pre-market this morning. I don't think it was
awfully confusing. I think clearly market participants were looking for some sort of gap down in pre-market this morning, I don't think it was awfully confusing. I think clearly market participants were looking for some sort of positive news inflection over
the weekend, especially considering we closed right around that 100-week moving average on
the S&P 500 into Friday. It was kind of giving bulls a glimmer of hope, hey, maybe they stick
save this year at the 100-week, and we get some news over the weekend. Obviously, we did not get any
positive news over the weekend. That led to the pre-market sell-off this morning. And on a
mechanical level, we bounced back, I think, mostly just because of being oversold as opposed to any
individual headlines. We look at the headlines today and you ask yourself, is it situation
changing? And in my view, no. People keep referring to these tariffs like, oh, it's tariffs on everyone.
That's why it's so disastrous.
I actually don't agree with that outlook at all.
I don't think the market is panicking because it's tariffs on everyone.
I think the market is panicking because it's very high tariffs on China.
You know, I don't think the market is awfully concerned about tariffs on Cambodia or Vietnam or even Japan, frankly.
And yes, there are economic implications in all of those trade relationships, but not disastrous economic implications.
With China at 30 or 40 or even what Trump said today, 50% tariffs, there are massive economic implications,
not just for us, not just for China, but for everyone. So I think that's the difference,
is that the rest of this is really just at the periphery. I don't think people care about the
Penguin Islands or these other smaller countries, because net-net, first of all, those countries do
not have the means by which to negotiate.
And many of them will come to the table.
Many of them have already come to the table.
You heard Netanyahu's comments this morning.
He's like, Israel will do anything.
We'll cut tariffs to zero.
Vietnam said the same thing.
Japan, I imagine, will say along the lines of the same thing.
You know, they have a long history of selling legacy products to the United States.
And those companies probably won't do very well in a scenario where they can't.
And so the United States has an enormous amount of leverage with our smaller partners.
There's really no fight to be had there, even if they do want to have one.
It'd be like a one-punch knockout fight.
It wouldn't be an entertaining fight.
So the real issue for the markets is what happens between U.S. and China with trade tariffs.
And 34%, 40%, 50%, these are untenable numbers.
And today Trump on Air Force One was asked, hey, what do you see about the China tariffs?
Like, what are your thoughts on the China tariffs?
And he said, well, if China doesn't take off their retaliatory tariffs by lunchtime tomorrow, 12 p.m. tomorrow, then he's going to impose an additional 50% tariffs.
Now, he's made this threat before, but he made it again today.
So he reiterated the threat today.
I don't know if he's serious about that or if, again, he's just trying to play hardball,
but it doesn't seem to be working with the Chinese.
I mean, even this morning, China's foreign minister said, look,
like, threatening us is not the right way to do things.
And you had a quote last night in China Daily, which is a propaganda publication published by the CCP where they basically put out policy statements.
They had an article last night saying China's willing to take its gloves off in a trade war with the United States.
Well, we better fucking hope they don't do that. Because, you know, we had just started
winning our fight with inflation. I don't say winning, but we just started making progress on
our fight with inflation in the last six months or so. And now you have to throw a wrench in the
mix where basically every single basic good will go up in price in the short term and significantly.
Not to mention the automobile tariffs and steel tariffs, which are going in place,
every car is going to go up in price five to seven thousand bucks, like in a snap of a finger.
So the amount of pressure that puts on the American consumer is is probably untenable where we are now,
considering, you know, the Fed has already started considering the other side of the labor market.
You know, people are starting to talk about consumer debt and consumer leverage and, you know, how stretched the U.S. consumer is.
And you want to do this now, you know, at this point.
And forget about the U.S. consumer.
The Fed's between a rock and a hard place, too.
You think the Fed wants to cut rates here?
No, they don't want to.
They will if they have to, but they don't want to.
And, you know, they look at the mistakes of not just the Fed, the global central banks,
looking at the mistakes they made during COVID.
And you're like, OK, what if you do get an economic slowdown here? Are you really going
to get the same level of policy response that we're used to? Not just from COVID, but from the
last four or five recessions, right? Because if you look at stock action preceding those events,
I mean, especially COVID, and you look at the V-shaped
recoveries. We talk about market conditioning over the last two or three years. I talked a
little bit about that a couple of weeks ago and how retail traders have been conditioned to buy
the dip and how it's unhealthy and yada, yada, yada. Talk about conditioning over a 20-year
period when it comes to fiscal stimulus, when it comes to monetary policies, right? It's not just the
it's not just retail that's conditioned to that part of the story. It is the entire street.
And so if we come to a scenario where we do get a recession this year, we do get a big economic
slowdown at the end of the year. And God forbid, inflation is still high at that time, because
that'll really complicate things. But if we do get a recession at the end of the year,
really complicate things. But if we do get a recession at the end of the year, are we going
to get the same policy response we've been used to the last four or five times? Are we going to
get a Fed that cuts interest rates to zero and a federal government that begins throwing out
stimulus checks? I don't know. And I think that's the bigger overhead risk here is that the situation doesn't improve with
china we do go ahead with 34 or 54 i don't even know what the actual number here is which is part
of the fucking problem is the lack of messaging but whether it's 34 or 54 we go ahead with that
on china china does it back to us global economy crashes there's no other there's an alternative
outcome there for anyone that thinks otherwise i would love to hear your argument. But if China and the United States
put 30 or 50% tariffs on each other, it's game over. Everyone goes into global recession. And
then you, again, historically have to stimulate and have to ease monetary policy. The question is,
will the basic goods inflation that's coupled with that economic slowdown prevent us from doing so? You know, will we see a half percent uptick in core CPI and PPI
into June or July of this year, which then holds the ability for central banks to do anything about
an economic slowdown? That would be literally the worst case scenario. And in that scenario,
stocks would go down a lot more than they are. This would look like, I think, a blip on the radar if that happened.
You know, 10, 15, 20 percent correction.
That's the type of stuff that can lead to a really, really brutal bear market.
So I think that's the worst case scenario.
It's not my base case scenario.
But the outlook for China and the United States negotiating, I mean, is there anyone that's positive on that outlook?
I'm not. China doesn't seem to be willing to come to the table. All the commentary is pretty negative. And so that's my concern here. I think
we will continue to see negotiation and deal making and maybe even zero tariff policy between
countries like Cambodia and Vietnam and Japan and South Korea, these countries will come to the
table. They'll come to the table quickly. You probably broker deals with them. The issue is,
none of our relationships with any of those countries are existential, but our relationship
with China is existential for the global economy. So that's an issue that kind of remains at the
back of my mind.
I think that that's probably the biggest problem to be solved.
And I think it's also the hardest problem to solve.
I think you'll get a lot of fodder headlines in the meantime where, you know, you get stuff that was like mentioned today where, you know, Netanyahu is in the White House and he's like, oh, we're going to cut tariffs.
Like our trade with Israel is not a it's not a point of global economic concern, nor is our trade with Cambodia, nor is our trade
with Vietnam. These are not going to unravel the global economy if tariffs are put in place in any
of those circumstances. So I think that distinction is important to understand, the difference between
China and the rest of the world and the dynamics of trade. And I also think it's important to have
some sort of opinion on what you think the
likelihood of that resolution is, because I think that's the best way to stop the sell-off. And I
think if you want to produce a sustainable balance in these markets, I think you need to solve the
China issue, in my view, because this is a global trade war without everyone else. Even if it's just between the United States and China,
it's still a global trade war.
And so that's the problem here, I think.
But yeah, added a little Amazon today,
took a little nibble, nothing huge size-wise,
but I will add more if we continue to go lower.
I think mechanically, we're very, very oversold.
We're actually historically oversold on a mechanical basis.
For a four-day sell-off, it's about as bad as it gets.
Historically, you can find very few examples where it's worse.
And so, you know, I would like to guess that there's better news coming just from a technical standpoint to produce that bounce.
But today was not very confidence inspiring. I was I was honestly
expecting a lot better news over the weekend. I thought they would panic at this point. And they
didn't. So maybe Trump just doesn't want to blink. Or maybe he really doesn't care what happens to
the market and the fallout of this. It's one or the other. You know, either he's trying to play
hard line hardball. And he's like, look, I'm not going to walk back.
Because if I walk back, then my leverage becomes much less effective, which is true.
I still haven't really heard Trump walk it back.
Some of the people around him have started to maybe been a little bit more dubbing.
Yeah, his ego is too big to walk it back.
But Trump still hasn't.
Yeah, his ego is too big to walk it back, as is President Xi's ego.
I mean, to become the president of the most powerful nation on Earth,
you probably have some level of ego.
You know, I think most presidents that we've had have had ego.
You know, you're the president of the United States of America.
You're the commander-in-chief of the military.
You have to have some sort of belief and confidence in yourself,
and maybe sometimes that bleeds over
and translates to ego. But the point is, is that there are a lot of egos at play. And that and that
makes resolution complicated. Because from us as onlookers, like all the stuff we've talked about
in these spaces, like we are all trying to be reasonable here. We're like, okay, you know,
what's the practical way to do this? You know, how do you do this over a longer time frame? What sort of
rollout should be put in place for the tariffs? Hey, let's put out specific benchmarks by which
tariffs can be reduced. These are the types of things we've talked about, because we're trying
to be analytical, reasonable people. The problem is, is that when egos are at play, a lot of that
reasonability goes out the window. And this is true in that when egos are at play, a lot of that reasonability
goes out the window. And this is true in everyday life. And it's also certainly true in geopolitical
life. But, you know, when somebody has that about them, and most world leaders do, and you do
something like slapping tariffs on and you're like, hey, don't fucking retaliate or it's going to get worse.
Like it's almost like a challenge to these guys.
You know, it's like, oh, OK, really?
You want me to tell you I'm not allowed to retaliate.
We're allowed to do whatever we want.
Don't tell China what to do.
You know, don't play tough with China.
Don't threaten China.
These are exactly the type of remarks we've heard out of the Chinese government.
Right. Sounds like two high testosterone, high ego dudes just going at it, which is exactly what
it is.
It's the two most powerful nations in the world that are like, you know, neither of
them want to blink and neither of them want to make concessions and neither of them want
to appear weak to the international community.
You know, it's like the two captains of the football team and everyone else is like standing
around watching them, right?
There are impressions to be made from this. The European Union is going to have impressions about China and
the United States and the fallout of this. Africa and Eastern and Southeastern Asia are going to
have impressions about the United States and China coming out of this. And so the world's eyes are
kind of really on Chinese and American officials right now, in my view, saying like,
hey, who's going to cave first? Because somebody has to. The global economy does not work with
this arrangement. It just doesn't work. The gears don't turn. You will effectively halt
like 30, 40 percent of international trade and you'll put a massive tax on the rest of it.
30, 40% of international trade, and you'll put a massive tax on the rest of it.
And that is an economic destruction scenario. You know, I know Dan Ives on Friday, a lot of
people thought his comments were hyperbolic, but I agree. It's like self-inflicted economic
Armageddon if it goes forward. I just, you know, again, I guess it's the optimist in me or the hopeful person in me.
But I think because of that practical reality, because the world economy, this is an untenable thing for the world economy, that makes me hope that people will come to the table.
That fact alone, right, that people are going to be reasonable enough to see that this is not going to work.
And as a consequence of that, they come to the table. That's my hope. But I mean, the news cycle hasn't exactly given me
confidence in that. So I don't know. I'm a kind of a confused sort of guy here where I'm just,
I'm not sure what's going to happen. And as a result of that, I'm not super confident in
deploying all my dry powder. I have plenty of dry powder.
We raised a lot of cash in late January, early February.
We hedged well end of February.
So my portfolio is in a good position right now, considering how big of a drawdown we've had.
And I'm willing to be patient here.
I have a cash pile that gives me flexibility if I do want to start picking up some things.
Like I said, I took some nibbles today on those amazon 2027 leaps i'll probably be down to five buy a few more of those
over the next couple of weeks and months um but i'm going to stay diligent stay very very focused
on a handful of stocks if any and uh continue to be patient but i i don't know if the scenario is
going to improve i don't know when it's going to improve, but my hope is that it, that, you know, cooler heads prevail and see that this
is going to cause a global economic recession and try to save it before it happens. But,
you know, if not, if nothing happens over the next two, three months, if nothing happens over
the next quarter, you know, my base case will be recession. If nothing happens over the next
quarter. And some people are arguing that we're already in one, you know, my base case will be recession if nothing happens over the next quarter. And some people are arguing that we're already in one.
You know, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink came out this morning and said most CEOs are telling him that we're already in a recession.
So that's up for your judgment and your opinion on whether we are or aren't.
But if we don't get a resolution to this and we do go forward with 34% tariffs on China, you're basically guaranteed a global recession.
So I guess congrats.
What's the little thing they like?
But yeah, that's my view.
I want to just keep it going around here.
We got Kevin Green joining us up here.
Kevin, how much were you listening to what Stock Talk was saying there?
You got it late. I got the last half.
I wouldn't say half, but I got
probably two or three minutes of it.
We also heard a little bit last night.
I know you were on there. If you're not following
Kevin, you're completely missing out. Any other speakers
up here follow everyone. Kevin, you got
anything you want to follow towards this conversation?
We closed the day, not down.
Down a tiny bit. Up on the NASDAQ 100.
Little wins, little wins.
So I just want to get your thoughts on this market action today and what you're watching for tomorrow.
Are you kind of walking down the side again?
Yeah.
So what I would say is, look, if you deployed some capital here today, good job in certain respects.
I would still be very, very cautious.
I don't think that we're at a bottom.
Honestly, I still think that here's the thing.
I'm not going to call a bottom.
Once we get down about another four and a half percent, once you get to around a 4,600,
4,650 level, I think that market really then is going to be in a make or break moment,
right? We'll figure this out if it's a small, I won't say small corrections, big correction.
We'll figure it out if this is actually a correction or if this is actually a sustained,
a potential sustained bear market, you know, 08 style or 2000 style, right? And so I think
the price action was all right, but here's the problem that you have,
very low liquidity. So if you look at level two quotes, if you're looking at the bidder ask,
you go to the CME liquidity tool, you can do that right now. You can go tomorrow,
probably go tomorrow because of the update for today, but I'd be pretty good at eyeballing it.
For the S&P 500 futures, there was like two on the bid, two on the ask right it's it didn't take much
i apologize for interrupting yeah uh broadcom just announced a 10 billion dollar share buyback program
balls of steel broadcom let's go no that's a good thing yeah i mean well what else are you gonna do
stocks getting it deploy that capital yeah i wouldn't be surprised actually if you probably
see some other uh companies do thatelerate some of the buybacks.
That's a good upside risk for earnings season, eh?
A bunch of buybacks announced and guidance is held.
Obviously, that's not consensus, but it could happen.
Let's get the buybacks.
I think it'll be a good Christmas gift.
Yeah, I don't know.
You start seeing somebody, like, re-rate higher on guide, I would be like, dude, you
got to chill out.
But what I would...
You just put on a board of guide in this environment, imagine that.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So I would say very low liquidity, doesn't take much to move markets.
I'm making a joke, but I'm actually half serious here.
So the news announcement or the fake news announcement or whatever we're calling that, right, where market spiked higher.
I could not believe that because it was a wild trade.
But that spike higher and then that move lower, right?
So that was, what, two and a half trillion dollars to the upside, two and a half trillion trillion to the downside so basically like a wash of two and a half trillion dollars in a matter of
minutes um after that if you kind of notice what the price action was doing it was a little bit
more let's say subdued compared to what we've seen over the last couple of training sessions
i would also probably assume that if you were running an automated system like a larger institution you
probably dialed back because of that and the reason why i also say that it's very out of character for
the market to not really dive at least initially on the announcement of re-raising tariffs up in
china by 50 percent making the total the totality totality 104%. I'm sorry, y'all. That should have been immediate sell
signal. I care less if you think the guy's bluffing or not. We probably should have saw a drop and we
didn't. So either the market's bluffing to, once again, I think you probably saw a little bit of
slowing or trading, probably pulling those algos back a little bit. I'm not a conspiracy theorist.
I'm being actually serious. Sometimes when you have those type of violent events, you got to,
you know, some people actually turn the machines off. Or once again, the market doesn't think that
China is either going to keep those tariffs on or Trump is actually going to do it.
The move in yields is very concerning. This is probably the biggest swing that I,
one of the biggest swings, let's call it top five biggest swings I've ever seen
when it comes to 10-year yield. That is concerning for me. So I'm keeping my eye out on that.
Is it moving up because economic growth fears, maybe we're overblown? Is it moving up because
we have a 10-year and 30-year auction this week and no one wants to
get ahead of that just in case we do have maybe a lack of demand when it comes to foreign buyers,
which is a key component for auctions? Is it because of CPI? I don't know, but the move down
was very aggressive. The move higher has also been very aggressive. And it's kind of signaling to me that they're either preparing for either a major announcement in the good,
or once again, there could be a show of force of maybe dumping a treasuries. And if we're
in that type of environment, then that's a very tough one to handle here. And then that's
what I came out and said, you said. Amazon kind of looked decent price
action-wise. NVIDIA caught a little bit of a bid. Personally, I took a shot on about to dump that
thing tomorrow and look for something else, honestly. And I think you're just going to have
to be tactile. I think crude is a little bit underpriced,
but you got to wait until we see some more stabilization. And when I say underpriced,
underpriced to geopolitical risk. And it's hard to trade options in this environment when you have
a VIX sitting at 45 or a VIX sitting at 50. So if you're not really trading the futures or you're
not trading SPY and you're day trading it on shares, the options
plays can be beneficial, but they're very, very risky. And the reason why I say that is if and
when, because it's a matter of time that vol will crush, vol never stays elevated and stays elevated
for forever, right? Like this is not how it works. that vol gets crushed uh unfortunately these out of
the money calls it is out of the money puts they're going to get crushed as well so i would
always kind of just advise you know if you're going to go long calls out of the money calls
buy time right if you usually buy two weeks out buy four weeks out if you usually buy a month out
buy two give yourself a little bit of time to let the price action develop and even if it does go in the opposite direction you're not getting smashed on the trade uh and you can wait
for one of those counter trend rallies as jack was kind of talking about because that will happen
even if this is a bull or bear market we will see five percent eight percent pops as we try to grind
lower and or stay stagnant so that my biggest takeaway for me, honestly, is that I don't think China's
going to back down. I think that China wants to see Trump actually go through with this
and be a man of his word, because if if he doesn't it's also going to be embarrassing
for him and i think that even though china's going to get hurt um there was a really good
interview on cnbc earlier this morning with super early it was like four o'clock five o'clock in the
morning um but it was a really good interview where they were interviewing somebody that was a correspondent in China.
And China, you know, Chinese residents, they know how to deal with this pain more than the U.S.
And that is true.
And so I feel like Xi could probably actually blast this out even another week or so before you see maybe some action being taking place.
And I would be very curious to see if Donald Trump actually puts 100% tariffs on China.
That would have a dramatic impact on the equity markets. We've already gone down a lot,
but we can go down a lot more if that's going to be the case. CDS, or if you're looking at
credit default swaps, they did blow out. We talked about that last night and I put up that chart.
They did blow out today. And I would suspect that that's going to continue. And if that's going to be the
case, they will be a little bit more of a bid when it comes to vol. And if that lasts for too long,
and for me, I'm looking for the next two to three weeks and credit markets start to deteriorate over
the next two to three weeks, I think that we will have a price, especially going into earnings season,
I think you probably will see a re-rating to the downside.
And then you start talking about credit risk event, credit risk out there as a potential event that actually prolongs any type of recovery.
I am of the mind that we will be in a technical recession by the end of Q2.
the end of Q2. Q1, we will be negative. Q2, if this lasts for another two weeks, three weeks,
Q1, we will be negative.
I would say the residual effect is going to at least be a month and a half. The only thing that
can offset that is if Germany is going to repatriate, I believe they're going to look at
trying to bring over $134 billion worth of gold coming out of the US to Germany. That would be
considered to be an export. So that could distort
GDP, just like we saw the distortion of imports in Q1. But I think we probably will be in a
technical recession, at least for the Q2 prelim that we get. So I'll kick it back.
Hey, Kevin, I'm going to piggyback off your bonds thing. So when, you know, before we got the tariff announcement, for me, I was just
watching China's reaction. I was on board and I'm on board still that like China can kind of flex
our muscle a little bit. And one of the things I want to watch in the next, I wanted to watch in
the next couple of weeks was the TikTok thing because, you know, I thought that it was a nice little political football that they were using.
So for me, last week when Trump pushed out the TikTok deadline 75 days,
he told me that, you know, China wasn't fucking around, for lack of a better term, excuse me.
And he just kind of like wanted to buy himself some time there.
On the yield front, like, you know, yields across the board for the most part are pretty much up um you know in in the u.s specifically twos fives tens thirties all up um i don't i don't
know if that's you know the i don't know if that's like a signal that maybe china wants to pull their
money or it's an inflation thing or a combination of both.
But I really think, because I mentioned this earlier just briefly, but like the same logic that was being used last week with, oh, the plan is to get treasury yields down.
And, you know, it's all working.
Look at it.
It's at four.
It's at three.
And change.
Like, you know, you look at it today and it's like completely pulled and i
think at the very like in a very small amount at the very least and i'm being very conservative
when i say that because i think it's bigger than small amount um it's you know these prices are
basically telling us that you know he's gonna need the world to get that part of the equation to function the
way that he wants to function. And I think if it persists this way, and then people start actually
pulling funds, and then if you get any kind of retaliation that's aggressive from China,
you know, even if they use the political football of TikTok, like, hey, it's off the table,
you know, I don't just based off of how we've had things handled in the last five days, I don't think it's going to be handled properly
on the back of that. And that's when I think, you know, tariff wars become capital wars,
which could become, you know, actually dangerous, because other things can break along the way.
And that's, I just wanted to kind of bring that because you mentioned, you know, the yield thing, you mentioned how China can kind of like pat the ball a little
bit here, given their citizens. And then the last part on that notion, you know, we've gone
four or five days and you've had, you know, staunch supporters, you know, try to make logic of
what was going on. And you've seen several of them already kind of capitulate one way or the
other on Twitter. I'm talking about like the big names. And then you're seeing a lot of people
just kind of confused across the board. I, you know, unlike other places where they can kind
of have like, you know, suppression of speech and dictatorships and stuff like that, we don't function that way.
So I think, you know, the longer that it gets pushed out, the more, you know, fragments there are internally, which kind of make it more difficult to get this stuff done the way that they want it done.
The only thing with the yield thing that way.
So two things.
One, it was technically a bull steepener today, right?
So that's one.
And so I'm not trying to contradict.
This is why I say I don't know, right?
It's just something that's very, I mean, it's very volatile and it's very odd.
Two, dollar did inch up today.
I would be actually a lot more concerned if dollar was going down and yields were going up right um so once again we'll see this resolved i don't i mean we're talking about
uh what was it liquidation day uh no liberation day so we're talking about liberate liberation
day is like kicking it off i mean i feel like uh you raise china tariffs up to 100%, 104%. I think that's even worse than any of this stuff.
I mean, these small deals and all this stuff, that's fine, right?
You worry about a country that we have a $500 million trade deficit with.
I mean, that's peanuts, right?
Yeah, I think the China one's a big risk.
Other side of that real quick quick though, it is telling.
So here's two things and I'll leave it at this.
So Stock Talk and I, what, a week ago, two weeks ago?
Well, about a week ago, we really kind of capstoned it, but we noticed that obviously
we weren't getting any leaks from the White House and that's because they didn't have
any plan um right um today could have could could what we saw during the middle of
the market day the 90 day uh pushback news that wasn't news but could that actually be a soft
a soft hit to the market to say hey let, let's see how this actually gets received.
You know, and I'll put my tinfoil hat on.
I like to venture down every once in a while, right?
One, it could have been a, hey, you weren't supposed to say this until we put them on after or get closer to make a deal.
Or this person was just completely incorrect and the person that consumed it.
But you don't flash out a news item like that because you mishear a recording.
So it could have been a soft launch and see, hey, what's the market appetite for this?
Kevin, I thought it was funny to see them trying to blame it on.
It's like, okay, no, it wasn't us.
It wasn't us.
It wasn't them.
It wasn't mainstream.
It was this guy.
And it's like, okay, you also just listened to that guy, but okay.
Yeah, well, I think they asked Trump kind of indirectly, but as much as you could directly when you're in the Oval,
because they can really restrict a lot of those reporters.
But Lucknik and Besson have to figure out who the hell's actually running the ship here and just let it go.
Because honestly, market does not want to hear Lucknik anymore.
Every time he talks, it's like the world's ending.
And but let me, whatever.
Sometimes you can see these soft little launches from the White House.
Now, is there somebody that said, hey, just check this out and what have you?
And you saw a 3% rip. I mean, we saw a 10% move intraday move in the S&P 500 today, which is wild.
Right. So that could be the case. Somebody could have botched it. It could have been a false report
here. But even if I'm in the White House and say, hey, that little bit of spark of optimism
caused two and a half trillion dollars of market
value to come back into the market. So really quickly, yields ripping, well, the yield side
they're probably pissed off about, but markets wanted to hear that optimism. That could be a
thing, right? So there's a lot of cross currents right now. I just would stay tactical, trade small
size, buy duration if you can't want to say duration, by time, if you're trading options and just stay the course because we're at a really key inflection point with the trend line for the S&P 500.
We bounced off of that. If you take the October low trend line all the way from those lows, this is what we bounced off of today or tried to at least contest today.
least contest today. And so that I would say that would be constructive for now. Overall,
I still, once again, I still think that we have about four and a half, 5%. Actually, it's probably
a little bit more than that right now because of the close. So yeah, but I'm looking at 46,
let's say 4680, 4700. 4700, I wouldn't say get interested, but I think that's a pretty decent washout.
And on a 20-year timeframe, outside of one bottom that did not confirm all of the rest of the corrections or bear markets that we've had, that 50-month moving average was the bottom.
Kevin, on the back of the tinfoil thing, whether or not it was leaked or whether or not it was intentional or not,
I feel like it still gives a card to play in their back pocket on the back of the reaction that they got.
Yeah, what is it? 7% in 30 minutes.
So I feel like at the very least, it kind of gives them a signal that people are waiting on pins and needles.
Some people, at least, are waiting on pins and needles to just deploy it on the back of the headline.
Real quick, Wolfie, I bought a 50-point-out-of-the-money spy option today,
10 minutes before that happened and those three
things 3x on that push 50 points out of the money now those are expiring in two weeks
um so those are expiring not next week but the week after and i bought the mondays
dude i thought something broke in my account i swear to god i was like wait what in the hell
happened and i looked and i was like, all right.
And I boxed it in.
Because I also, I mean, if you want to box in spreads, I like boxing them in.
Especially in high IV environments, you actually get a little bit of juice out of them.
You can sell out of them too.
Put stops in.
But stops right now, markets are wide.
Spreads get filled like crap right now.
So you can box them in and try to get
some of the time value and I know you had something to say I've meant to tell
you guys yeah give you mine but go ahead I've been to tell you guys the other day
was this Thursday because today's Monday right so Thursday was it Thursday is no
it's Friday actually I think it wasursday it was one of the big drop days or
whatever so you know those micro futures contracts right they're kind of like the spreads on them are
kind of janky like even in a good market you're looking at around a three and a half four or a
four point spread for anything that's like close to add the money they're not like quarter spreads
like if you're looking at the e-mini s p large contract the minis right um what was so wild though is that i bought these uh puts and i put a stop or
not a stop but i put a sell limit at like i bought them at 45 of my cell limit at 75 right points
and when the market opened because they're so illiquid, the market, it's not even like the actual market created this massive drop.
I mean, we had a little bit of a drop, but not a massive drop to give me 30 points on a 50 delta option.
But because they were so spread out, it triggered and somebody filled my limit order and then it like recorrected back.
And those options were trading at like 20 points less.
So I use that as another example of like,
just be very careful because I'm pretty sure that I get,
yeah, it's not a market, it's a futures option,
so you can't put more, but it was wild.
Just people in general,
that's why you shouldn't use market orders in this market.
Yeah, and just be careful when you've been,
when you're trading the micro options.
Like, I mean, I'm happy, right?
And Market Maker probably doesn't care because it's only one micro.
At that point, I was just playing around.
But even wild stuff like that where it's like, boom, right at the open, got filled.
And I promise you, we only moved like 15 points at that time of that trade.
So that's how much they just blew out those spreads.
So be careful out there when you trade these options.
I'm going to give you mine on the back of that.
I was looking at, on Friday, I was looking at the April 8th, 5.30 calls on the SPY.
They were trading at like north of three and change when I was looking at them.
I didn't want to go into the weekend holding anything.
So I said I'd wait till today.
And this morning they opened at like 23 cents.
And I watched them and I was like, all right, well, about 37 to 40, somewhere around there.
I just took some for fun because I was just like mostly bored.
The, you know, I'd say like 15, 20 minutes later, the headline hits.
I didn't see the headline when it hit.
The bid ask inverted on my screen.
So like the ask was lower than the bid because things got jammed up.
was showing me that the that the spy was at a like $4 higher than what the L2 the L2 was on my screen.
And, you know, I didn't necessarily know originally, I didn't know what the real price was,
opened up a secondary my secondary broker just kind of check it um and then they went from 23 cents on the open or 30 cents on the open
whatever it was to 5.7 give or take or 5.9 on the highs um i was fortunate to get filled on the cell
and the fours um but then as soon as they got there, as soon as they got there, they got, they went right from that 5.9, right back down to 0.4 in like 12 minutes, I'd say.
So yeah, crazy, you know, crazy expansion and crazy decline on the back of that.
Just pretty wild to see.
Um, but I don't know.
It just, to me, it speaks that the action that we got kind of, I think,
gives them that card in their back pocket. Like, if we have this headline, you know,
people are waiting to deploy it. That comes with pride, though. I don't know,
if you're around, are you seeing a massive like re-rating and margin requirements on ES?
I would imagine so, but I'm just kind of wondering
if you've seen something like high level,
it's like, yeah, man, they've doubled
and margin requirements or if it's not that aggressive.
If you know, if you're there.
And it's not there. there okay let's move forward
i am i'm here kevin sorry um the quick the quick thing that i did notice today i honestly that exact scenario you mentioned i didn't see that but I did notice the cumulative
Delta can you hear me yeah yes okay sorry I was double checking here so the thing I did notice
was the cumulative Delta was actually green today there was more buying than selling. Now, a lot of that obviously
probably covering ES did go red at one point, but I never saw NQ's cumulative delta buy versus sell
go in the red since last night. It was all buy side. So I did see that part was interesting,
but that was the only thing that really stuck out to me on the future side of things.
Oh, wait, was it on the buy side?
Are you saying after we hit the lows yesterday night?
Is that what you're saying?
Or are you saying even that before that?
From when we hit, I guess, basically from open.
Yeah, it's just from futures open last night at 6 Eastern.
I never saw anything go red as far as more selling than buying,
even with that massive drawdown.
And then we finished the day in the green on both.
I mean, I'm looking here, and E.S. was red at one point in the middle of the day,
and now it's up 14,000 to the buy side, 14,000 more on the buy side than the sell side.
NQ hung out in this like 2,300 range the entire day.
But I did think that was interesting to note that
there was more buying than selling going on in the future yeah and volume is going to be it looks
like we're out stripping probably by the the 4 p.m or the 3 p.m close amount in time um so what I
don't know what time that is. 6 p.m., whatever.
We might be outstripping volume from yesterday
or Friday's candle too on NQ.
Let's see on ES.
On ES, it looks like we did.
So that's a good sign.
I mean, that's a good candle.
It's a decent volume node, right?
Like we're conducive for maybe another,
like maybe a bounce. But, you know, I're conducive for maybe another, like maybe a bounce.
But, you know, I wouldn't say that we're out of the woods yet, but decent bounce.
And that's how you're going to have to play this for now until we get some more direction here.
And when we do get the tariffs being called off, you know, I think that's probably when we're gonna try to rip real higher and until we get i
mean the earnings announcement i think is just the biggest wow and i once again i'd have no clue
how this is i don't pan out i think we're all kind of bracing for really bad earnings or i'm not
saying earnings really bad guidance so i kind of think you know if everybody's expecting it how bad
could it get as far as price action?
But I don't, you know, we'll see.
And I hate to be those companies.
Well, you know, we got what, banks on Friday?
JP Morgan's on Friday, right?
I would assume.
I would hate to be the first, like, technology company to kind of report and re-rate guidance lower.
They're going to be the ones that take the brunt of selling.
And then it'll normalize by the middle of the earnings season,
and by the end, we won't care.
Companies are pulling guidance and things of that nature.
Stock talk.
What's up
any thoughts on what they were talking about there
and if not I'm curious on some of the analyst reports
from today
there's nothing notable
on the analyst side just a bunch of
the same old stuff that we saw last week
just a bunch of downgrades on
tariff fears
Morgan Stanley downgrading
US banks
you had a couple of guys jumping out looking at some tariff Tariff fears, Morgan Stanley downgrading U.S. banks.
You had a couple of guys jumping out looking at some tariff beneficiaries,
which I don't know if I agree with you.
Bernstein coming out with three U.S. apparel names they think are immune from tariffs.
TJ Maxx, ONON, and Tapestry.
I didn't read the full notes, so I can't tell you exactly the rationale but that was a bernstein note that was out this morning i just read the headline of it the
the first paragraph um you had walmart lowered at oppenheimer a bunch of retail low rings and
you had some reiterations to people saying like hey there's some stocks that are not tariff
had some reiterations to people saying like hey there's some stocks that are not tariff impacted
by tariffs at all that have been sold a lot um it benchmark on kratos saying that they're saying
that kratos is zero exports to china and zero components supplied from china along with an
intimate relationship with the u.s government um and they were mentioning how that stock should
not have been sold which i actually agree with with. But, I mean, you're going to get babies thrown out with the bathwater
in this environment, and any analyst saying that they shouldn't be sold
is not really going to prevent them from being sold in this kind of environment
because it's not the way it works.
I mean, occasionally you'll see that, like, with biotech names especially,
and there was a couple of those today.
I think Rhythm Therapeutics, RYTM, they got a note from Bank of America, names especially and that there was a couple of those today i think rhythm therapeutics rytm
they got a note from bank of america and i think that's doctored very well today if i
remember correctly i was looking at it earlier yeah rhythm pharmaceuticals rytm is up 17 today
on the bank of america so yeah biotech sometimes operate that way where um because they're kind of
insulated from this whole thing so you'll have analysts sometimes drop a note or an upgrade on one of them
and you'll see that move.
But outside of like biotechs and maybe like a handful of high interest
or high short interest, small and mid caps,
typically you're not going to get analysts to be able to buck the trend
on big sell-offs like we've seen over the last couple of weeks.
You have B of A with a new strategy
node. They said they're changing their year-end strategy. They're now buying large cap value
and equities as opposed to bonds going into the year. They were advocating buying bonds
over large cap value. So now they're flipping that stance. What else did you have? I have a
bunch of stuff in my notes i'm just
flipping through my notes here seeing if there's anything else that'll be interesting oh you had
um ubs downgrading the airlines alaska and united i think those are the only two in their universe
of coverage if i'm not mistaken so that's why they picked on those two but uh they downgraded
both them they said they expect commercial flight demand to drop significantly. Their base case is also recession now. So I'd say about half the banks on the street now are
at base case recession. JP Morgan, UBS, Evercore, Morgan Stanley, one other. Who am I forgetting?
But yeah, anyway, there's four or five banks that are now at base case recession.
Anyway, there's four or five banks that are now at base case recession.
What else was there?
Oh, Caterpillar also downgraded to UBS, same principle.
They did mention that they think Walmart and Amazon, UBS mentioned that Walmart and Amazon,
they think, are more resistant to this than people are anticipating.
So they did reiterate their buy ratings on both of those.
You had B of A with a GLP one note,
which I thought was weirdly timed.
There was like literally a shitload of stuff out this morning.
So I know I'm sort of all over the place,
but it'd be a bit out with a GLP one note.
They said GLP growth is trending higher amidst a confused market
environment where many industry trends and guidance may be uncertain. So I guess they're
sort of saying that they see GLP one is as insublated from this, but you have to get in
mind B of A has been kind of a GLP one permeable since the beginning of that trend. Even when those
stocks had come down from the top, they were, they were still sort of pounding the table.
So sometimes you have shops that are like,
they just love sector,
and then they're going to just reiterate it every time the market sells off,
and that's sort of how B of A is on GLP-1.
But nonetheless, they're on that.
Pretty much it.
I have like literally four pages of notes from this morning so i'm just flipping
through amazon price action from friday to monday today has actually been pretty constructive though
i've been keeping my eye on yeah and then you talked about the leaps i bought some amazon
actually i added some leaps so you these are honestly i didn't buy that that much but these
are some decent uh little buy orders because last night on Robin and I was like all right I want to do
some buying I'd like we were doing that spaces and I had to put in limit orders
so I put a little bit below and they ended up triggering at like 3 a.m. or
something so I got Amazon at 161 50 this morning hey girls There you go. Sell, dude. Sell, bro. Sell it. Sell it all. Yeah, dude. Yeah, I would.
I would.
Buy the next bag.
Buy the next bag.
You got to be up like a low.
That'll be the low for the next five years.
You know how Jags
Jags on Spaces
yesterday, he was like, I got QQQ
at 400. I was like, damn. I was playing around with like, I got QQQ at 400.
I was like, damn.
I was playing around with my thing.
I should put it at 400.
I bought about a good amount of QQQ at 400 at 3am too.
Those lemon orders.
Nice.
What is it?
Yeah, see, the thing is for me,
I still don't feel confident in allocating all my dry powder.
I have raised a lot of dry powder in the last month or so.
I don't want to dump it all in the market here, even if this might be the bottom. Like, I don't
know. I'm not going to be able to guess the bottom, but I couldn't help but take a couple
of nibbles today on something like Amazon. I mean, my cost base is so good on Amazon. If I throw a
few leaps on top of that position, like those leaps could go to zero and net net, it's not going to
matter for the overall position. So, I mean, A, I don't think leaps are going to go to zero, but B, I mean, I just have
enough dry powder right now where I can start taking some nibbles, but you know, I won't
be super aggressive until we're back in an uptrend.
That's just the way I operate.
Like, you know, I'm going to miss that.
I'm going to miss that initial gap.
Probably like I'll be, what you're saying is, is there is a 90% chance we do not hear stock talk bullish for the next six
months.
You won't hear me back to being vocally bullish.
Like I was in 23 and 24 until we were back in an,
in a uptrend on all time.
It's going to be up 10%.
It's going to be like,
you losers didn't buy the dip.
I did
no um I mean I think I think once you're once you're back in an uptrend on the daily which
I think there's a lot of work required to do that then I'll be back to being you know margined long
and levered long but for now I'm keeping margin off the table, keeping cash levels high, taking some spots where I can find them.
But I'm not like nosediving into anything.
And I know there's people who feel like this is the time to do that.
Props to you.
I think everybody's time horizon is a little bit different in the way they operate is a little bit different.
But I feel comfortable going into the middle of the year.
I feel like I protected my portfolio well during this drawdown as well as I could have, frankly,
especially considering the long-term positions I have
that got clobbered.
Names like Amazon,
Robyn Ode, Tesla,
which are down huge year to date,
I should be down a lot more.
And so I'm proud of the way
I'm protecting myself
and it gives me flexibility
in the middle of the year.
All right, send me your address.
I'll send you a couple of cookies.
Send me a cookie.
It's pretty fire.
Chocolate soup cookies?
Yeah, yeah.
But you're going to say bourbon. At least that got exempted from the eu that's true bourbon have you had those crumble cookies they're good
i'm not a huge fan there's no way you believe that they're anyway
yeah they're just too like i feel like it's just underbaked like
dough this is evan we're talking about it is ev. Can you hear me? I switched over to Wi-Fi.
Yes.
Yeah, we got you.
We can hear you.
Were you going to say something?
Oh, okay.
I feel like I have flexibility
in the middle of the year. I think
around this whole tariff thing,
this either
turns out to be a dunk on the global economy and nothing
changes and we end up getting a disaster scenario or things improve over the next quarter. And then
I'll get more incrementally confident in the market again. But I mean, just pull up the daily
chart on the S&P 500. It's just not pretty. You need to do a lot of work to just repair things.
It's just not pretty. You need to do a lot of work to just repair things.
And I'm willing to be patient until that happens.
I'm not going to be overly active until we get back into a convincing uptrend.
And that could take weeks, could take months, could take two or three days, frankly.
I mean, if a move like today happens on, you know, if you get three, string together three or four days,
like the pop from this morning and it doesn't fade,
and you get a handful of two, two and a half percent days to the upside,
you could be back above that 200-day moving average within a few weeks.
So I'm keeping my mind open to that.
Stop, stop. This is repairing. Look, Supermicro is up 10.6% today.
You have Oklo or Oklo, whatever you want to call it, up 10.7% today.
SMR up 11.9%.
CEG up 5.16%.
I mean, this looks like some bullish action.
Obviously, I'm kidding, right?
Those are relief balances.
But it does kind of signify rh and all that
did our what is rh now i would have to say i don't i don't like the company itself i don't
like pretty much any like furniture company or whatever just in general but i mean a 40% fade off of, I'm just saying a 40% drop on earnings after the company was already getting destroyed because of the whole housing thing.
I mean, there probably is some value there.
I don't know a lot about the company, but it sounds like a very expensive place.
So I don't know.
Technically, probably because you've get a decent little bounce back
they released a press release right after market close on friday basically reiterating that news
about the vietnam tariff coming off or whatever and uh they reiterated their guidance and they
were trading essentially at 10 times free cash flow i bought a decent sized position in the
after hours only to see myself
down on that uh in the pre-market but obviously we rallied from 137 to 170 and i i took my 10 15
percent win and i just bounced but yeah i mean it's very cheap if you think that the housing
cyclicality can turn uh which it feels like you know if the trade is going to be lower rates from
here obviously the 10 year ripping today is kind of the opposite effect of that,
TLT kind of dying.
But, you know, one day doesn't make a trend.
And if this was just kind of a counter-trend rally
in line with equities rallying for the day,
then maybe you could see that reverse back.
And, you know, I do personally believe that rates are going to come down.
If the real situation is going to be like, you know, slowing economy,
inflation is no longer going to be a risk, then the, you know, the Fed can get closer to neutral.
So I do think rates come down and a lot of those things are going to start to work.
Ryan, I saw you had a hand up down there as well. I didn't know if you had something to throw in.
you had something to throw in.
I'm sorry if we missed you.
Yeah, I did a little bit earlier.
All good.
I was actually going to ask Stock Talk
if he bought anything today
and then you guys went into it
because we talked about it a little bit late last night.
But I was also a buyer of Amazon this morning.
And then also Robinhood.
I have not bought Robinhood yet.
I've been out of that train. And since it's kind of come down so much, I wanted to nibble a bit
this morning, write it open. So obviously I'm at a lot of higher prices than probably most of you,
but I think long-term Robinhood's a great play. But yeah, Amazon and Robin Hood were the two I was looking at today let's talk about trans
ocean let's let's talk about some the nitty-gritty the thing got down a dollar and 94 cents today and
it's a nine point two two percent obviously that's a joke but that's actually one of those stocks for
those that are trying to get into options
and you're trying to figure out how to trade options.
Transocean for me was the stock that I learned on.
Now, obviously, it's depressed from here, but you do have options on it.
And it's actually a pretty decent mover one way or the other.
And the options are relatively cheap.
So it's actually the stock is probably cheap
compared to assets that they have on their book.
Now they did kind of sold off probably
one of the more premium assets in its portfolio
around nine months ago, almost a year ago.
But that one's actually a very interesting one
that can be a mover.
So as an example, that was one I actually picked up,
maybe, cause I can't talk about my own
thing and then dow inc and this one has been a dog but this is actually a very interesting dividend
payer for now dividends are not guaranteed but dow right now is paying a 10 dividend yield so
it was one of those you know if it needs to go down okay but I mean over time they can hold
that div and that might be these pop right there and then I looked at venture global tip symbol
VG this is a newer IPO venture global has more assets and when you look at net asset value,
than Occidental Petroleum.
This is pure LNG play.
Now China stopped importing LNG from the United States,
so that's something to keep in mind,
which they most likely did preempt this battle.
But this is a stock that,
IPOs, they suck,
but from a relative valuation standpoint, just based on the last earnings announcement, this one's also a pretty cheap one.
That over time, they're one of the bigger exporters in the United States over time.
But it's a high beta stock, and it's obviously been in the downtrend.
But that's another one that I kind of looked at today.
Amazon looked at that one.
I think we brought that one up.
I fumbled a bag on Dollar Tree.
I'm pissed off about that one.
I mean, I got back in, but I sold it
on Friday and probably shouldn't have.
That was another one, too.
I don't know what I'm going to do with Walmart.
I don't know.
I don't want what i'm going to do with walmart i don't know i don't want to i don't want to
dollar tree it's been interesting the action in dollar tree dollar general and the pawn shop stocks you notice that the last couple weeks they've been super resilient like easy pawn which
is one i traded in january and february i sold it like mid feb i should have actually held it
because you go look at easy pawns chart that thing has not budged in this whole sell-off which is interesting maybe it's suggestive of a
recession but the dollar store stock's also very strong maybe suggestive of a recession i don't
know but that's just been an interesting little tidbit i noticed uh on an industry level easy
pawn the other one's uh first cash that stocks really well, too, in this whole sell-off.
I think recently it got hit with an 8% or 9% down day,
but all things considered, it's not bad compared to the field.
And then the dollar store stocks you brought up, too.
So I don't know.
I don't own any of them currently.
Like I said, I did trade Easy Pond earlier in the year,
but I do think that's interesting.
Yeah, well, Dollar Tree and Dollar General have tariff risk.
I think that was probably being priced into the stock sliding beforehand.
Dollar Tree, well, Dollar General had decent guidance moving forward,
even though the earnings were dog crap.
Dollar Tree, I believe it's selling off Family Dollar.
So that one actually saw a nice little rip to the upside,
but then it faded pretty aggressively.
Once again, just with the broader market,
but Dollar Tree actually has a pretty decent
base information on the, just from a technical setup.
And yeah, they could be a tariff beneficiary.
And if they can get Family Dollar off their books,
they'll probably look a lot better fundamentally and take a get a family dollar off their books, they'll probably look a
lot better fundamentally and take a lot of the debt off their books too. So that's an easy one.
Easy pawn is, I don't think there's a lot of people that trade it, but yeah, we're in doubt.
What is it? Pawn shops, casinos, smokes or like the send stocks. Somebody, what was it? Altria, M-O, Altria, somebody sent that.
That's paying a seven and a half percent dividend yield. I looked at that stock today
and it's like, that's a hard one for me because it's like still paying seven and a half, but like,
I feel like it is going to hinge. Like it'll be the first one just get completely demolished if
this is a bottom. So it's like a hard one, but I do like the yield. But that one's been fairly steady.
And I believe it's actually,
I would say probably top five low beta stocks
in the S&P 100 or yeah,
in the S&P 100,
low beta meaning just very low correlation.
I've actually,
I think it actually has a negative correlation
to the S&P 500.
So that's an interesting one too.
So yeah, a lot of plays though.
I was actually surprised by the
by the cg oklo snr moves today that that kind of caught my eye the palantir not so much that one's
been aggressively oversold i can see some buyers getting in there if we're back in the options
realm of just like way or again so i'll kick it back i know that we're right at the top of our
appreciate you guys having me on i do think we have a hard close tonight right
We do we're going to have stock picks here in a minute
I just saw an Apple
Apple US stores are seeing a sales bump due to pre-tariff
Shopping I just saw that come out right now
Bang bang
Bang bang and we do have a hard cut off right now
That's really funny because I was going to go buy a new iPhone
I was going to get a new phone too
I was going to get a jitter button
Guys Meet up at the Apple store Post spaces let's go a new iPhone. I was going to get a new phone too. I was going to get a jitter bar.
Guys,
meet up at the Apple store,
post spaces, let's go.
Right now.
All right, let me look into the source now.
I'm going to go to the Apple store and buy a new iPhone and an iPad and I'm going to make sure to tell the employee that I don't own
any Apple. No, just order it
off Amazon.
Yeah.
All right, that's a good spot to end it. That was a hilarious comment. That's what I'm going to do. I'm going to order off Amazon. Yeah. All right.
That's a good spot.
That was a hilarious comment.
That's what I'm going to do.
I'm going to order off Amazon.
I thought you would like that.
Follow the speakers.
Thanks everyone for being here.
We'll be back tomorrow.
Same time,
same place.
Wolf account right now.
Stock picks for the week.
And spoiler alert,
I won. Thank you.
