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YIELDMAX WEEKLY DEEP DIVE!!
Recorded: Feb. 4, 2026 Duration: 3:41:03Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Good morning, Spaces crew.
Happy Wednesday, everybody.
Welcome back to the show.
I'm ready for another day.
Let's have a killer Wednesday.
Just showing up to the morning.
We are going to have some data at 10 o'clock this morning.
What do we got?
We got ISM services, PMI at 10 o'clock.
We had ADP non-farm employment come in at 815.
That came in at 22,000.
Forecast was 46,000.
Previous was 37.
So we'll watch out for that data at 10 o'clock there,
that ISM services pmi
um some other things just some other notes i'm seeing amazon and openai have reportedly talked
about a commercial agreement that could require openai to dedicate its own researchers and
engineers to developing customized models for powering amazon's own ai products. So Amazon OpenAI.
What else we got?
Washington Post has reportedly begun a widespread round of layoffs.
Texas Instruments has reached an agreement to buy the U.S. chip firm's Silicon Laboratories for about $7.5 billion, or $231 a share.
Taco Bell's Yum, ticker Yum,
Y-U-M, same store
sales grew by 7%
year over year.
Quarter 4 beating expectations of
5.6%.
Got some things
happening this morning. What's up,
Casey? Good morning.
Good morning, good morning.
Good morning.
What's up, my folks?
Good morning, MAPES.
Let your buds in.
Hold on.
I think that worked.
So I see NQ pulling back to the 10-minute EMAs here.
I think it may be a good short if price gets close to that 10-minute 20,
whether it's on NQ or ES, SPI, or KKU.
I don't think we see a full reversal unless there's a higher low,
just kind of like what we saw yesterday near the close.
So I'm keeping an eye on a short.
I'm going to say 380s, 390s is what I'll be watching.
Now, I'm not just going to set a limit order up there.
I'm just going to see how price reacts.
Maybe look for a three-minute confirmation and then trade accordingly.
Love it.
Yeah, I'm super confident in what i'm looking
at this morning but as of now on the higher time frame we have been respecting bearish gaps pretty
well so if we want to reach into yesterday's session lows i won't be mad at that. I could try and play a little continuation trade into that under the open.
As for any longs right now,
I just don't really see what I'd want to see for longs at the moment yet.
We're not tapping into any significant areas that I'm really interested in yet.
So I'm feeling a little more bearish,
but that can change pretty quickly going into the morning
depending on what happens.
We'll see.
Right now I'm watching this 15-minute gap going into the morning.
If we run through that to the upside,
I'm going to have to change my thoughts a little bit momentarily.
If we can respect that, I think we're trying to trade lower.
I think we're just keeping an eye on these internals right out of the gate
and see what they look like.
That too.
Silver's up nine percent gold's back up two and a half
yo trade of eight down i think no ninja yeah bro yeah frank just had the same thing
Just had the same thing.
Oh, Diddy, I missed it.
Yeah.
Yeah, I just tried to log in and it's all unavailable.
That's cooked.
Well, watch out for yesterday, then.
Yesterday's lows in the queues is going to be really important.
Nasdaq.
Damn, Mapes, as you say that, because I was signed in.
As you say that, it signs me out and I can't get back in.
I did the same thing.
I pulled up my tab and I saw NQ moving.
And I was like, okay, I was was like let me just refresh the page and see if it still works and now i'm just stuck on a black screen that says
loading what are we doing i should have just left it alone and hit the buy button and see if it
worked any other brokers down right now? Nobody knows?
I don't know.
I'm on thinkorswimmin. I'm good in there right now.
Thinkorswimmin is absolutely goaded in my opinion.
True to me, what's the deal?
That's rough well I guess I'm tape reading this morning it's okay let's look for some levels here yeah I'm watching we're
trying to sweep this London low going into the open we could definitely bounce
from that but overall way order flow is looking i still think we could reach lower even though gosh
this bigger time frame we are at the absolute bottom of this range yeah 50 days i'm a little
mixed up this morning so i'm not i wasn't planning on taking any of the positions right away anyway
yeah 50 day on es is right at 6909.
So I think you're in between there and then the 9 and the 21 right above you at 5750 and basically 67.
So I think if there's not a lot of movement,
you're probably just sandwiched in between that level, those two levels,
I think.
Unless the internals either have a ton of strength or a ton of weakness out of the gate,
and then we can kind of start to figure out
which direction we're going to go if we're going to trend.
Good morning, everyone.
Good morning, good morning.
Well, we got 10 seconds, so let's mark it open.
Let's get it.
Good morning. I's mark it open. Let's get it. Good morning.
I did see Uber missed.
Looks like Uber was down,
pre-market down in the mid-70s.
Yeah.
Got a little slap.
We got Google later today.
After the close.
We are open.
We are open.
Apple, sticky with the blicky
let's go
this dump towards previous day low
we said it did i push up 10 minutes 20 and then drop, bro.
And that's exactly what it did.
Disgusting.
Damn it, trade of eight.
All right, all right.
Okay, I'm short.
Somebody asked if we take Fridays off.
Absolutely not. If the market's open we're live baby so we're pushing but we do go live on youtube nasdaq pushing uh that trend line from yesterday
45 dollars per contract gain spy 690 puts sold half and scale some out that was pretty fast actually
um for the person that did ask about fridays though we are only live on youtube on fridays
How low can we go?
690 is for 215.
I got 218 at previous day low,
and then the low below that for Monday is 180.
Those are the spots I'm looking at.
See if they give you some sort of retest at all before you actually go hit those draws
sure do you see here the nasdaq here that that trend line from uh yesterday that we kind of
bounced from we're kind of we're slicing through it a little bit here pretty aggressive off the
open 5.8 mgc moving stop and profit there we go keep freaking flushing
there we go there's like 15 points on mgc
okay scale out guys my stop loss is in profit
okay taking a trim stops in profit. Okay. Taking a trim, stop some profit. Yeah, if we're going to bounce, it's got to be
in this area. Just so everyone knows, on ES for every day, every Wednesday that's opened within
yesterday's range, every single one of them has broken out in the last six months that's 15
out of 15 times wednesday's opening within yesterday's range on es have broken out now
granted yesterday's range on es was pretty big so that might play a little bit of a role but
the odds of either touching that previous day high at 70 17 or previous days low at 68 86 is pretty high today
i close my goal is short it was 25 points wow look at how much es is holding up well it's a
thing too this is the same thing as yesterday morning if you look at how qqQ opened up, it instantly got like one, two, three huge red candles downside
while Spy was barely moving to the downside.
Same thing again this morning.
Q's is significantly weaker.
I want to see a little tickle below that yesterday low.
Somebody tickle Joe here.
25-219 is that low from yesterday in NQ,
so watch that level if we go blast them through it.
Watch for longs right here at previous day low.
You're hitting QQQ daily trend line again.
Yep.
It's the same spot.
I've missed this.
Trading is so much more fun on spaces.
Look at Pepsi 167. Look at Pepsi, 167.
Look at Apple, baby.
Wow, 275 for Apple. Huge.
Yes, it's going to 280.
Let's freaking go.
Uber just had earnings,
I believe. Don't worry about it.
If I'm not mistaken.
They did.
Silver dropped a little bit.
It's back in 90.
Holy freaking apple.
Still have not pushed to any of those lows on either of the assets yet you're trying to hold up before that low gets taken
yeah if we hold over 300 i'm out on my original trade but
yeah nasdaq's gotta hold this level if we If we start drilling, I think it opens it up quickly.
Oh, my goodness.
There's 275 Apple.
The contracts from this morning that were at 630 just jumped another $100 at 730.
What a freaking ripper.
I'm just going to wait.
What's up, Michael?
Big red pond, there he is.
Oh, my God.
That's the trying to hang on.
Yes, he has got some bids here.
How about them apples up 11 grand?
Let's go!
Ooh!
Spicey!
Got Remainder Spy there. Green trade.
How about that freaking long spot on Spy and Q's, eh?
Motherfucker said I am him.
Look at that bounce!
Bounce that thing for me. Bounce that thing for me.
Bounce that thing for me.
AMD opened down.
Here we are.
2-12 at AMD.
Everton it's in the street.
I see bounce, bounce, bounce, bounce.
IWM's holding well.
She's in her own world lately.
Why am I flying?
I am.
Caterpillar continues to press.
718 now in Caterpillar.
That is a big spot for
I just got an alert on I-R-E-N.
I-Ridden.
Yeah.
So I just back-test the key area of support.
Watch for a little bouncy-bouncy.
I believe they have earnings tomorrow.
These Apple calls are going to go to 10.
They're freaking money. I hit hit the spy 690 puts again savage maple wants blood on a wacky Wednesday even though I can't take positions
I'm still not seeing anything
I'd want to take anyway
yeah we're in a little trap zone right now
yeah it's a weird spot
I'm being patient A little trap zone right now. Guess where's Bob?
I'm being patient.
Below view, up still below PLC.
Tiny. Just noting some of those private equity stocks are continuing to drill this morning.
morning. Someone
Some of them taking out yesterday's lows.
taking out yesterday's lows.
Blackstone,
Blue Owl,
Aries Capital, that's another one, all week.
Did anybody see that video of Dave
Portnoy running?
Dude, horrible.
Horrible, horrible, horrible.
I can't believe he posted that.
He's not allowed to fucking
post himself doing any exercise over again.
That's horrible.
I don't know what you guys are talking about.
He like
raced somebody or something.
With like a
10 yard head start.
Yeah.
And like still basic, almost lost.
Said Portnum might be the
worst athlete of all time.
I saw that.
I saw that post.
Worst athlete.
Yeah.
That was funny, bro.
All that pizza, bro.
All in one bites, dog.
Dude, he must have torn like so many things or something because there's something not right there.
I know.
Like the way he's running, there's something wrong with his body.
Gosh.
Pull 276.
That just made me giggle this morning. keep trying to sign in thinking it's gonna work one of these times
my trade debate's working wait really yeah i just took the gold trade yeah
what do you what firm are you trading on?
Lucid.
Mine's not working.
I'm getting internal error when I try to learn.
Yeah, my Tradeify and Apex are not working.
My Tradeify is working.
That's cut.
What the?
Why are you picking and choosing?
Yeah, Simba's like, I'll give it to you.
That's good.
I gotta have a word with Brett.
Mm-hmm.
Bring him up here.
Yeah.
Right now.
Give him a piece of my mind.
That was so Karen.
Give him a piece of my mind.
Give him a piece of my mind. A piece of my mind.
I'm going to chop your open so far.
We've got this three-minute gap, rejecting it.
I thought we were going to open up a 15-minute gap there to be able to try and short out of,
but nothing opened up there.
We have
data.
We do have data at 10.
ISM services PMI.
Yeah, we got something at 945
as well.
Let me look at my financial
because I don't see it on my other one.
That's why I run two calendars.
Yeah, that composite PMI.
S&P services PMI.
See what that does.
That's in two minutes, so watch out.
Wait, am I tripping?
I might have times fucked up.
Sorry.
Being out here has switched me up,
going from West Coast all the way out to Atlantic time now.
Yo, did you move out there, bro? Yeah, I'm out here has switched me up, going from West Coast all the way out to Atlantic time now. Yo, did you move out there, bro?
Yeah, I'm out here, bro.
I just bought a ticket here, so.
I love it, man.
I love it.
So we're getting, me and Evan are in the same apartment.
We're starting to get things set up a little bit.
Oh, shit.
I saw that air fryer, bro.
I saw that.
We got the air fryer, dog.
Yeah, you need something, man. Mm-hmm. Congratulations, shit. I saw that air fryer, bro. I saw that. We got the air fryer, dog. Yeah, you need something, man.
Mm-hmm.
Congratulations, bro.
Thank you, sir.
I'm stoked.
Oracle below 150 now.
Wow.
Lockheed Martin still holding up 230.
Had a whole big post on their backlog yesterday.
I think that data came out.
No, not yet.
Oh, no, that's just the timer for it, my Ben.
The timer kicked on.
That airfare timer.
Yeah, we need a...
Holy Apple.
I think I haven't used it for bread.
Apple's going for previous month highs?
Is it really?
It's a 277.
Why is it?
Okay.
Apple is ripping this morning.
Crazy.
That's like the only thing with strength.
Damn.
AMD's.
Damn, I didn't even realize on earnings he got that crushed.
You guys notice I never really look at the earnings move until the next morning.
Oh, thank you trying to move higher, fighting this three-minute gap that I have.
If we can run through that, maybe we can try and move higher,
but I don't think it looks good here.
It just feels so choppy.
I'm going to see what the gamma exposure is.
It smells like positive.
Also, just not trading around in a real order for,
like earlier this morning
2 a.m.
we were but
apple's lifting the indexes i mean that's the only thing holding them really
the 280 call runner here from march is up to 200
that means if apple ends up rolling over
yeah if apple gives up any of this move it's going to be
yeah it's going to be because n, it's going to be, because NVIDIA is weak, obviously AMD to the downside.
Look at, I just said Oracle below 150 now, drilling to 148, down 4%.
You got some notables in the materials, again, as the one that leads, but look at Apple 11 down 14%.
Palantir down 5%, almost 6% now.
Shopify, PayPal continues to drill into it 4% lower.
CrowdStrike down 3%.
Datadog, Team, a lot of these, Micron down 3%.
A lot of these names are on the weaker side.
If you look at that. That's down on number 9. A lot of these names are on the weaker side. The leaders, GE Healthcare, Empower, Amgen,
obviously Apple, Old Dominion Freight Lines,
not a lot of the bigger tech names. come on dump it spy we did have that uh adp as well was on the weaker side missed by
20 something thousand jobs uh pmi global services actual 52.7 versus 52.5 expected.
And S&P global composite,
actual 53 versus 52.8.
So slightly hot.
Yeah, Oracle now just sliced through 148 as well.
And they're weak.
Software continues to take a beating.
Look at IGV now down.
Another move down towards 82 level in IGV.
Software getting punished.
Gamma is still negative, so we can still trend.
Got no notable exposure levels or anything near us.
I think the Qs, the NASDAQ in general has got to bounce here.
If we don't get some strength that shows up,
I think it opens the door for lower.
or lower.
Especially if Apple gives up
any of this up move.
Netflix new lows
almost down to that 79 level.
Amazon down half a percent.
Google just off the highs.
Mr. BK. Good morning.
Good morning. Good morning. Good morning, good morning.
Yeah, Dow continues to show strength.
Yeah, software is the ugly one.
Look at Salesforce, it's down almost 4%. All the stuff leading, industrials and healthcare,
and staples continue to run more of the defensive
side of things staples continue look at Walmart 128
Apple's kind of continuing here I mean I know the project vault Vault, Rare Earths for iPhone production, securing that was kind of a catalyst, but to see quite a big run here is a little unexpected.
Typically when other stuff is selling, I think people buy Apple as more of a safety trade is typically what it's been looked like before.
I think people buy Apple as more of a safety trade is typically what it's been looked like before.
If you can break over VWAP, we got clear skies.
Amazon's doing an AI studio initiative to cut costs and make more content, I guess.
And here is Apple, previous month high high approaching to 278 watch for a little
potential resistance up here after this overextended move but incredible
yeah q's got to get really back above 615
615 14 is like the level those highs if we can take those out
oh now i can't try i just try to place an order and it's such a great maintenance
booked yep no trade day
they'll probably flick it on you know when they'll flick it back on
like an 11 30 eastern right right when the noise starts
that's when they'll flick it back on everybody's all answer to trade
and they'll just go blow their accounts it's the perfect way to generate some money, you know?
That's fine. You won't catch me.
You won't get me.
won't get me.
I was going to short off that low at 357s.
Whatever.
Yeah, NVIDIA is starting to move lower here, below 179.
Microsoft rallied all the way up to 415, back down to 410 and starting to drill here.
UPS, 115, about to hit trend line if google joins this party it's it's uh might be heading lower yeah google just lost 340 here here.
Yeah, if you look at if you look at cues on the daily from that trend line that we touched yesterday,
we're starting to fall away from it here
i'm finally gonna take out these session loads from yesterday
there we go here's the dump 690 is looking juicy yeah i got i bought spx puts
maintain 10 minute 200 ema if they can close under 689.5 i think we see pre-market low
688.74 i still still have full position, 690 puts. Take it down.
YM's getting slapped too.
RTY, new low a day.
Roll it on over.
Yeah, I'm just waiting to see if we get these new lows,
which it seems like we're going to do.
Yesterday's lows in the Q, 25-219, so mark that.
That's 60 points lower here.
And then Sunday night's low is 25, 180 and a quarter.
25, 180 and a quarter for NQ.
$50 per contract gain.
Sold half, 5, 6, 90 puts.
Let's go.
Yeah, that previously is low on NQ.
It's 30-ish points away right now.
It's extremely, extremely likely to get hit.
ES is further away.
It's 50-something points, just over 50 points,
so that's going to be a little bit more of a stretch, honestly,
but now we got NQ roughly 25 points away.
Obviously, I'm not saying get short right over here,
but it is extremely likely that it's going to touch that,
that 25 to 18 level on,
on MQ.
Yeah.
The fact that we couldn't get back above like 25,
3d5 this morning and then you're starting to fade that,
that makes a little bit more bearish.
I mean,
you really right now in queues,
I mean,
you got Tesla, which is the flat line,
and then Apple's the only thing, honestly, holding the NQ up right now from the big weighted stuff.
They're just absolutely drilling software again.
software again. Look at Palantir now
Look at Palantir now, $145.
145.
Datadog
down six,
five bucks.
114. Zscaler, CrowdStrike.
Micron down 3%.
Adobe
continues to drill. They lost that support
level, I believe, in Adobe.
Jesus Christ, Oracle's chart looks crazy yeah Adobe took out
yesterday's lows at 270 tempus a eyes at last last August Wow that that Oracle
chart is crazy yeah I think I think Oracleacle on a jeez i mean just absolutely falling off a cliff i think oracle
probably at this point you're probably looking in the one mid one teens 118 115 somewhere in there
it's probably your next uh i mean you're kind of you don't really have a lot of support structure
through here was it because some was it because the contract with openAI and how a lot of the...
Was it anything relating to that circular revenue thing with OpenAI?
So here's the big picture for these deals, I think, is in the private equity space.
All these softwares as a service providers, that there's so much debt being taken on to build data centers.
riders, that there's so much debt being taken on to build data centers. And I think that you're
seeing that in the private equity markets, like some of that stuff getting marked down or
you look at, look at again, I was just talking about this yesterday, but like blue oil capitals
in that space, a lot of these BDCs that lend money in that space. I mean, these things are
getting drilled again today. I think it has to do more with that. Look at Blackstone, new lows,
again today um i think it has to do more with that look at blackstone new lows uh private equity down
four percent so uh there's a there was a lot of charts floating around last time i think i posted
a couple of just a lot of the private equity space is getting hit so there's there's some issues in
credit um i think i think that space oracle was a big one. Their credit default swaps in that market were surging higher the last two months.
Where do you look at those?
Like Bloomberg or online?
Yeah, I got a couple of contacts.
I looked at Bloomberg Terminal.
I don't have the Terminal myself.
But the other thing, too, is when you look at these lenders that are lending private equity money in this space,
they're immediately going out
and buying credit default swaps against those loans.
So it's almost like they're trying to protect themselves,
obviously, because they're lending in that space.
Yeah.
Spilo a day, pre-market low test.
Kind of exacerbates the problem.
Scaling trail of your short.
Yep.
And then Q N low a day.
Good stuff.
Yeah, we got some ticks finally below the zero line.
Let's take out session low from yesterday here.
Ticks away.
At least my bias was right ish at least the order
i would have placed would have worked that nasdaq previous day low yeah
yeah the spx previous day low is like 50 points away yeah yeah yes still holding up um a little bit better yes and why
i'm why i'm still green yeah this nq candle on the daily is right at the trend line from yesterday
where we kind of found previous day low tapped in i have next level at 180. This is a low from Monday.
Your net premium, your puts,
just crossed over the calls on Spy for the first time since Open.
NQ is NQ's NDX taken out yesterday's low right here.
I'll say watch for this ruggy rug.
This could get $100 per contract gain.
Spy 690 puts.
I sold a quarter. Watch those 180s to come into play now
and it's good get with it with it so jordy and i were talking about this prior to the open whether
you're trading nq qqq es whatever guys a reversal only happens if there's a higher low for your
longs or a lower high for your shorts so this this morning, there was no higher low on SPY or NQ.
It was a clean EMA rejection.
Look at your EMAs.
They're bearish.
They're below VWAP.
Prices below VWAP.
Very simple read.
Look at Robin Hood drilling.
About to lose 80.
Hood?
Yeah, Hood is in the 80s.
Hood down another 7%.
Wow.
I haven't been paying exact
close attention to Hood. I cannot
believe that.
It's going to 67. I've been saying this for the last
month.
Somebody said trade evades back up.
It is not.
I have an alert
set at 80...
What is it? 8021.
Absolutely
insane that it's about to get hit.
Honestly, when it hit 150,
I was like, this is kind of crazy, to be honest.
Like, 100, okay, but
when it hit 150, I was like, that's absolutely insane.
The other one that's drilling is...
Yeah, I just got mine to pull back up as well.
Here's your Fleshy Fleshy.
The thing on hood, until the monthly metrics come out and are back to growing i'm not touching it long yeah i think
that's 67 level in robin hood before i'd be even close to interested in it yeah I bought the $150 contract gain on the SPY 690 puts.
I have a target 687.2.
Beneath that is 685.16.
My SPY directional analysis is there pinned to the top of the nest.
I think it's the first slide.
With all the targets for SPY shorts today.
I just had Alert come across on CrowdStrike at 400, 403.
Casey, we talked about that level on Sunday
right at that prior low.
I have some
PMI came out
53.8
forecast 53.5, so
again, slightly hot. There's your
fleshy fleshy. There she is.
Flushy, Flushy.
There she is.
Flush.
Flush.
Flushy.
Flushy, Flushy.
Flushy and cheese.
Yeah, what a drop.
Yeah, and Bond's really not catching a bid here either.
Yeah, and Bond's really not catching a bid here either.
Your pinnacle names that we're continuously ripping.
Sandus, MU, WDC are red.
Cash screen, though.
The big lows I have are going to be from January 21st.
Those lows?
Yes, which
would be 25,032.
Or 30, yeah, 32, I think.
Yeah, right around there. I have 26,
but same thing. Oh, yes, yes. You're right,
you're right, you're right.
Oh, damn. Nah, let's look at your text.
Oh, yeah, but
and then go check the channel.
ISM services is down six points from last,
but it is three points above expectations.
Wow.
All right.
A little fleshy-fleshy.
ISM services new employment was on this.
$200 per contract gain, 5,6 six ninety puts i sold down to the runners yeah i got runners on on the spx puts as well
absolutely drilling here
yucky
yeah palantir 142 now
uh broadcom like we talked about yesterday if you were on here
that that head and shoulders break down at 310
palantir? Holy shit.
Yeah, that 142 level is a support level in Palantir.
Wow, breaking that low before the earnings is crazy.
Oh my god.
They sucked everybody in. They've not taken out the same lows.
Yes.
Amazon took out yesterday's low.
Microsoft has not yet.
That's probably the relative one there.
NVIDIA flirting with 177,
and Tesla's starting to give it up here.
Now 417.
Yes hasn't even taken out yesterday's low, and NQ is...
People thought I was crazy saying Palantir 140 puts for March.
People thought I was... They thought I was fucking nuts.antir won 40 puts for March. People thought I was...
They thought I was fucking nuts.
He said, give me that.
Boy.
Sell me your cons.
Boy.
Yeah, go.
Yeah, boy.
Hey, also, Unity is down 40% on the stock since I said puts as well.
Wait, what?
Yeah.
Oh, my God.
For a second, I thought you were going to say like today, though. No, no? Yeah. Oh my god. For a second,
I thought you were going to say
like today though.
No, no, no.
I was like,
holy shit, dude.
No, that's not good.
We should have known
about this a little earlier.
Later.
Yeah, here's the other one
is KKR.
That's another one
in that.
That is down almost 4%.
That's another one
in that private equity space
as well.
Just smashing these things.
Smashing.
I don't know.
Hood was at like 115, 116 when we started talking about 90 breaks
and then going down to 70s and 60s. And now we're at 80 bucks.
It's amazing.
It's outstanding.
Right on that 177 level.
Flirting with 176 now.
That is nutty.
Yeah, that's gonna drop more.
Yeah, it's going to drop more.
Nats, did you go check?
Oh, no, I didn't. Hold on.
Go check this channel, dude.
He just did more?!
This 10 minute going green is messed up
diverging
since
946 this morning
I don't see any divergence
I don't know
what the fuck he's doing
dude started buying at 9.46 this morning
6.19s
and then kept doing it
and now did 6.18s
yeah cause you can't double
you can't double it
I mean you can't go past 2
that's bad Yeah, because you can't double it. I mean, you can't go past two.
That's bad.
It's pretty quiet, though.
For now. Yeah.
Oh, yeah.
We'll see.
We'll see.
It's going to be a no for me, dog.
There's your 80 break on a hoodie.
Yeah, the fact that, I mean, when you look at the cues on the daily,
like we just lost that trend line pretty decisively from 6, 14, 50.
Here we go. So.
I've seen all these posts of Rax yesterday that were saying the VIX was up 18% yesterday, so the market has to rally tomorrow.
Okay.
How's that?
I took it off there.
That is definitely not how it works.
Yeah, we're sitting right at Sunday's low, this 25-180s.
So we did blast through it, but we're sitting right here.
So watch and see what happens.
We can hold this low area.
A little bouncy bouncy does anyone like the shorts off of previous days low and orb low here on NQ?
Potentially, I'm watching this five-minute gap.
If we can respect it, I think we're going lower to the next level.
Yeah, ES overnight low is right here.
Could take a shot at it.
This is my line in the sand spot.
Yeah, this orb low, this 15-minute orb low, previous days low that we're literally at right now.
We push up just a little bit higher. I might consider taking a short. Yeah, this orb low, this 15-minute orb low, previous day's low that we're literally at right now.
We push up just a little bit higher.
I might consider taking it short.
Maybe stop at new hive day.
But this orb is actually pretty big, mapping this out, so I don't want to risk.
I actually don't want to risk 100 points, so I have to wait for – maybe I'll risk midpoint of the orb or above the consolidation,
but I don't really like that setup.
What the fuck?
I mean, the ticks are not super bearish right now.
That's the only thing I'm seeing is that they're slightly positive,
the cumulative tick but
they were early in the session yesterday and then they rolled over
but advanced decline you got plus 217
but it's just the other sectors that are
continuing to make a move here
you really only got three sectors continuing to make a move here. Yeah.
Healthcare is really,
you really only got three sectors red.
Everything else is green.
Materials continue to blast higher.
Staples, real estate up 1%. Healthcare, it's all the defensive sectors are rallying.
Yeah.
By the way, guys,
that previous day's low piece that I was talking about, that data
that I was mentioning before, I actually wrote an article about it.
I put it in the Nest.
That's what played out on NQ this morning.
Still hasn't played out on ES.
Now granted, the ES previous day's range is very big, so might be a little bit different
scenario today.
But there's an article in the nest right now that was going over
exactly what happened on NQ today. Take another short at 247. No five-minute
candle closure through that gap so still respecting bear. Stop is in profit, full
position. That's cool.
I really would rather not get whipped out, but, you know.
Scalp and scalpy, so I... Short goal, three-minute EMA.
I got close right there.
Had an algo level that previous day spot.
Oh. had an algal level that previous day spot you're kind of coming into the uh lows of the uh first part of the session here so
this is where you should reject
i was a little too aggressive at the risk
yeah doubt's still stronger here
but uh nq has taken we're just right there yesterday's low in the futures I think they're going to attempt to try to get some buyers going here.
We'll see if they can actually do it.
I'm thinking the same.
Maybe a fakeout breakout under previous day low?
Yeah.
I mean, they're going to try to defend this.
10-minute red, MNQ?
I think there's a lot of activity
on the profile. A lot of people stepping in.
Yeah, they're going to try
to defend yesterday's low, would be my guess.
If they can't get anybody going,
then I think it does open the floodgates lower.
We're at a crucial spot.
I mean, advance decline line is still plus 230, slightly improving.
And cumulative ticks plus 1580.
But if we're going to fail,
it should fail in this area.
Gold, 13-point gain, covered half.
Let's go.
yeah if you get some of these bigger names like if tesla starts to lose this 415
apple's kind of coming off the highs here
microsoft's the only probably relative strength from the open, I would say, out of the bigger
tech names.
And then I think was the other one, was it Qualcomm, I think?
They gave that move up already right at the nine.
Buy red, sell green, NQ.
Here we go.
Good target, I think, is 280.
Still fighting this five minute gap here
243 25 is the top of it really need a closure over that for the bulls
i'm not convinced of anything and bonds aren't really moving at all i mean the long end of the curve is just flat right
at this 491 level which is not you're not seeing anybody go to treasuries for safety
yeah apple fading a bit from the highs, under 275 now. Come on, come on.
Let me see what you're going to give me, стак. There's Bitcoin today.
Okay.
My ads are up.
I did buy as soon as we
tapped into previous year low and broke
that.
We'll be buying more if I want to dip down
to...
20 point gain, gold, covered a quarter.
Looking at 66.7
and then
49 if we get down there.
Not really
anticipating that, but
you know.
That's a little flirting with lows of the day here.
It's so 50-50
right here.
Yeah, you got Amazon pushing off the lows.
Google basically at new lows
and then nvidia kind of in the middle here of the range
uh amd just continues to get pummeled down to 208 now down 13 percent So far about to lose 21.
So far about to lose 21.
And Palantir just lost 142.
Now 141 continues to take some heat. Yeah, Micron new Lowe's, SanDisk right at the Lowe's.
So the memory names are kind of giving those up.
Yeah, there goes Micron below 398.
Let's wait
MQ still holding up
Yeah, look at MQ
MQ drilling here down 6%
First time seeing
21 EMAs since
mid-December maybe
Right around 380 21 EMAs since mid-December, maybe?
Right around 380?
Let's see if it gets there. the November retracement was about 26%
we're about 13 half of that now
yeah similar percent size move would be
like 336 335
it's interesting this advanced decline line is still pushing a little bit higher.
248 advances, decliners on the S&P 500.
Ticks, cumulative ticks, 1670.
But it's the bigger weight names that are starting to impact it.
Google down getting close to 335.
Look at Netflix, a little bit of a bullish bounce off those lows there.
It lost 80, but it's starting to curl and come back a little bit. um excuse
spy still above the 50 sma
but q's is under by
nine bucks
flat remainder 690 puts in profit
i still don't like anything here I'm gonna wait
I'm gonna take 690 calls on spy
this could just get choppy in there holding it yeah you don't want to see spy back below like 688 that would be uh
dude these wicks are brutal we're just last five ten minutes it's just candle same size bodies
it's trying they're trying to push it up these ticks I think with the last few trend days as well a
range day would be perfect I mean bring us from or blow to orb high yep 186 what
are I have a question for for you guys what are some things when you're, so right now,
this is something I was talking about on stream the other day, but like right now we're all kind
of starting to lean towards like in the last like couple of minutes we've been saying, okay,
maybe this is gonna be choppier, maybe this is gonna be range bound. Like what are the things
that like subconsciously we're seeing that's
triggering this might be a choppy day
I think a lot of targets already hit or blow broken previous day low broken
They're sweeping it the fact that we've already had a few trend days the last few days as well now, of course
Doesn't guarantee a rain. Yeah, of course prices still is still within its 30 orb.
If it trends, normally I see acceptance outside of the 30 orb.
So if you look at yesterday's chart, 30 orb was 625.
Once we started to close beneath that, you can see price drop, then retested orb low.
Those stuck buyers at orb low begin to stop out at break even,
maybe slightly small loss.
And then that's when we got that 622 drop all the way to 240, right?
Because that break-in based on orb.
If I see price holding within that 30 orb, meaning sellers can't close below 186 today. It's range bound.
Balance form of price.
Also just like...
Go ahead, Will.
Look at that. Holy shit.
That's a fat move from
5,018. We're at 976
right now.
Yeah, that might be...
I might throw a short in there.
On a bounce here.
Maybe short of 490.
Maple's what I'm thinking. If we get a bounce, maybe short of 490s uh maple's what i'm thinking all right if we get a bouncer i might short that yeah 490 489 i think it uh will continue down to uh previous day or below
uh 953 maybe that's no previous day or by excuse me 953 see how that's pushing now on spy
look at that i got an entry there 186 we're at 232 Or by, excuse me, 953. See how that's pushing now on SPY?
Look at that.
I got an entry there, 186.
We're at 232.
Yeah, big candle there.
I think... All right, there you go.
$50 per contract gain.
SPY sold half.
Silver is at a breaker block.
It does look like where a dead cat bounce would reject.
Looking at the eight-hour chart.
The other thing is when you're looking at,
when I look at the breadth as far as nicey breadth versus NASDAQ,
you got one that's positive and one that's negative.
So that leads me to believe there's going to be a little bit more push-pull
and a little bit more chop.
And then when I look at the ticks and you got ticks that are positive,
the advance-decl decline line that's slightly positive,
and we're not going anywhere, just kind of back and forth.
That's kind of the other thing I'm looking at.
Yeah.
And then you're looking at these lows, right?
So, like, they're trying to defend these lows that we hit yesterday.
And I figured if they're going to try, if the selling stops
and they don't go through them, they start to get bought,
they're going to try and get buyers to step in.
I mean, really, I'd say invalidate this lower move.
We need to get queues back above 6.15, like a close back up there.
That's CrowdStrike after triggering that level on the weekly.
Getting a really nice daily candle forming so far
after hitting that weekly low.
Yeah, that 403.
Big reaction off of it.
Yeah, Andre, I just look at how we're respecting for value gaps.
If we're constantly respecting bullish gaps,
prices are efficiently respecting those, we're constantly respecting bullish gaps prices efficiently respecting those we're not
going to chop if if right now like we were just trying to respect the five minute and
uh a bearish five minute but also hold a bullish three minute and one minute like this is an
environment where it's like it's not clear what we're respecting yeah right but um on a day like
yesterday right in the morning it's extremely clear what we're respecting.
We're respecting bearish gaps all the way down, right?
So I really just keep it, I look at fair value gaps.
If we're respecting them efficiently in one direction,
like I know it's game on.
And if we're constantly like trying to inverse one
and then inverse the next one, right,
just back and forth to each other,
I know price doesn't even know where it wants to go and I shouldn't be trading you know so yeah there's kind of a mix of everything and
and like maple said liquidity being taken like majority of targets have been taken i would say
for the downside at least um which makes it tough i have one level left if i want to break down there
but um that's that's another thing
i'll look at is like oh if we took we haven't taken the highs yet but if we took into the
morning this overnight session lows and session highs that doesn't leave a lot of liquidity for
me to play with you know maybe previous day high or low or something but it looks like they're
buying it looks like they're buying software a little bit and selling the semis that's kind of
what it looks like i mean mean, look at IGV.
You got a big hammer candle starting to form.
I mean, on the daily.
It depends where we close, obviously.
Yeah.
But the hourly candle looks like it's going to be a hammer,
and it looks like they're trying to buy up some software,
and they're selling the semis.
We almost got to that 200 SMA on the weekly there.
Yeah.
Dollar above it.
Qualcomm got a nice bid here too off that 144. that's up ten dollars
we called that alert out on sunday um what was the other one palo another quarter of this uh the spy
290 calls or 690 excuse me that's the other one is uh pal Alto Networks, PANW, trying to hold this 165.
So they may be trying to dip their toes into software here,
and maybe they sell the, you know, look at like Micron they're selling and SanDisk and stuff like that.
So they may be dipping back into software and selling the semis
based on maybe AMD's earnings.
So they might get a little chop rotation into that type of trade
we should have uh i mostly look at speed so is speed being met with speed or is a fast move
into an area like this morning open being met with the chop like this pretty much just um
if it creates its own reaction, but it's not,
so I'm not really very excited into the area.
We should go take IB low in two minutes.
Yeah, internals are, I mean, the ticks, the last few ticks here i'm just looking at started to
fade slightly so you're getting the ticks with a lot of wicks on the upper side
and the bodies are closing more at the zero line so um let's just see what they do with
these ticks start to roll over back to negative um yeah i think sellers just picked up more ads into the 10 minute emas um i think i'm back on
andre's question yeah um touching back on andre's question right so like whenever like the only
reason why i went long right will was talking about it as well but i took the fake out breakout
right price broke that open low pivot 229 and typically when price breaks a pivot, we see a retracement back to the 10 minute
EMAs, right? 9 and 20 is what I use. So you can see that a great sweep. You want to buy the red
candle, trading it into the 10 minute EMAs, which is exactly what we've been doing. If it continues
higher, great. My trailing stop loss gets hit after taking profit. Great, right? But chasing a short
under a pivot break or at the pivot,
that's what I used to do year one.
I learned my lesson.
Had I not, I'd still be chasing breakouts.
Big facts.
Same thing on gold right here.
Broke lows.
I don't have any interest in continuation of a short unless I get a larger pullback into the EMAs.
I'm just going gonna let my runner run
but also touching back on andre's question you know we got three different answers and they're all right um this this brings me to the conclusion that, you know, whatever strategy you trade or any strategy out there,
they all work, but they all will not work for you.
You have to find out what makes sense to you,
your tendencies within the market, your trading style.
100%.
And follow that path.
Follow that path, right?
Please.
Yeah.
And size down.
Size down.
And spend time on something you know
two days three days ain't gonna give you enough
data to know if something works
I mean the
best thing for that like if you can define
it with like specifically
any kind of
you know MACD RSI
extensions you can probably code
which means you can back code it, which means you can backtest it.
And that means, you know, from that point,
you can also automate it.
So the more you define a strategy that you,
and set up that works for you,
the more informed and a consistent expectancy you can get.
Agreed.
Yeah. consistent um expectancy you can get the green you know
yeah it's good points because cut remainder spy 690s green trade
shit so funny like i laugh about it every day me and me and you may just like
we look at things quite differently but we'll get to a very similar conclusion.
And it's just about finding your way, right?
Everybody kind of got to find their own way.
Dude, 100%.
I used to trade RSI, MACD, Stochastics, and, you know, I used to trade with SMAs, day trading.
That's crazy.
That's crazy.
Yeah, just, you know, because, like, that's what people were telling me to do and of course once i started to venture off and focus on things that
actually made sense to me you know pivots emas vwap i've traded the same exact way for going on
you know after year one now it's been about seven years. Yeah.
I got YouTube videos on 9 and 20 EMA from like five years ago.
It's the same thing.
All right.
60 point gain gold cover to the runners. Go take that, he'll be low.
Coming down here. They're rejecting that IB midpoint there.
Interesting.
They couldn't get above the 21 they rejected it whipped above it
and came right under on z5 give us the ib low so
gold going to pre-market low 49 30. will i know you're raking it in bro
he's raking it in he's making too much he can't even unmute
yeah he was like oh it broke he hit what did he say 40s 490s let's go take that i below we just
got that four minute inversion
after testing that five minute rejection holding i think three minute cbc following
three will be a good short here prior to that low day pivot on nq
i'm going for 100 points here on uh the gold short
dude imagine saying that a couple years ago dude two weeks ago imagine like it was nuts
i was like oh 20 points is that's more than enough now i was trading more size because
the volatility wasn't so bad but tesla down at 413 getting getting close taken out yesterday's low
drill it see if thank you can get to this ib low
i mean you 10 more dollars to the 21 ema we had a beautiful retest of that five minute gap we
actually got above it momentarily.
But out of it,
got that nice four-minute inversion back to the
downside.
I think my
pick for
weekly pick for MUU short
is going to be a good one.
It's going to be beaut.
Going to be purdy.
Ticks are definitely fading now.
We got a minus 800 tick here.
Pretty close.
So these ticks are trying to hold them above zero,
and they just rolled them over pretty aggressively.
High risk.
MNQ short, three-minute CVC.
I'm with you, MAPES.
Took it on that inversion that I had.
The Russell's given it up as well.
Here the last five minutes or so, it started to.
You're getting another sell signal on that.
We just broke that internal low from 1016 Eastern.
I'm going break even.
Can't lose on this position.
Nice goal.
Hey, I love it.
Russ is starting to join the party here.
20 point gain.
M&Q covered half for a D-risk.
Got to see lows.
Being able to go break even.
Like having that definitive spot when you get those is always the best.
Tesla 412 now.
Dude, people have such a big issue with like taking profit but they don't realize that like taking profit
is not only reducing your position size it's offloading emotions yeah yes agree look 100
point gain it gold i'm all out baby 49.18 gg dude yeah ggs on that i got filled at 49.18. GG. Dude, yeah, GG's on that. I got filled at 49.88.
I'm taking it out right here.
Oh, my God.
Oh, rugged.
Give me IB now.
Disgusting.
I just put some limits up at that level, like I said,
and it just filled them.
I didn't even look at it.
I just threw them in there.
That's what I was saying.
I was like, you said 80.90, and it popped up perfect.
Retest or blow.
That's that imbalance I was telling Andre about.
Those stuck buyer stopout, break even, small loss.
And then it crumbles.
And it goes.
Yeah, I just feel I'm down to runners and goal.
Yeah, to your point, Mace, about taking profits too.
It's like, same goes.
Even if you're a trader like me, like a lot of you guys know,
I don't really trim, right?
That doesn't matter. It doesn't mean you don't protect your profits. I have lot of you guys know, I don't really trim, right? That doesn't matter.
It doesn't mean you don't protect your profits.
I have a definitive spot that I go break even on every trade, right?
So even if maybe I'm not trimming or it comes back against me,
the worst that's going to happen is I get a break-even trade,
scratch, whatever.
That's fine.
Broadcom or Lowe's.
Ooh, Broadcom.
Yeah, losing really close to 310.
If you look at Broadcom on the daily, I talked about this yesterday.
I talked about it on Sunday night.
We're getting close to that head and shoulders break is pretty clear now.
Give me TP.
Give me TP. MTP. Dude, MTP. You do have the 200 there at 307, but they're starting to look at NVIDIA now.
175 lost yesterday's low.
AMD still going down at 205.
They are taking out the semis.
Look at the SMH.
385 now.
Big reversal off of yesterday's.
Smoked through yesterday's low.
We're about to hit 95 points, full position.
Come on.
Give me that TP.
Bust it.
Bust it.
Bust it.
Bust the low.
No, no, no.
I don't want that bounce.
I'm going to get a little bounce like that.
Hey.
Give it a little something, son.
How are they going to stop me at breaking these fuckers?
I don't want that bounce.
Damn it, I'll suck.
I lost Ivy.
I don't want that bounce.
They did this to me at Ivy High the other day.
Well, I got that.
Is there a catalyst for this?
Yeah, I was going to say, any news on that or no?
What's going on?
Because that's over 100 and...
Oh, just completed a telephone call
with President Xi of China.
Are you kidding me?
Flat and Q.
Are you kidding me?
There goes all the tricks.
Your technical analysis is no match for my tweets.
Yep.
Jordan, did you literally just say you were at like 90-something points?
It was about to be 95 points, full decision.
Oh my god.
No matter, though.
It's part of the statistic right there.
Yeah.
Dude, I had limit order entries under IB.
This is exactly why I was just explaining, right?
Stops to break even, no matter what.
It's free trade.
I take that. All good. It's free trade.
I take that.
All good.
No worries.
Jordan.
And some people will say, well, why didn't you take profits?
Jordan, you're almost at 95 points.
That's not how I hit 95 points full position.
So the same people will ask that question.
How do you hit 95 points full position, right? It's like, well, you got to be able to hold that full position and throw a stop and break even.
It'll probably still go to IB low
like it did the other day when I was targeting
IB high.
They discussed the trade,
military, and then
their April trip that he's going to be making
to China.
I was short spying ES.
I caught the move down.
I sold half, put a stop at break even.
Three seconds later, that candle came in.
That's so cooked.
Dude, it was fucking wild.
I was 83 points deep.
I wanted it to go lower.
My sizing was low because I was risking
like 60 points.
And what?
Still reason to trade lower though.
I'd be low.
Maybe today is
pump news day?
I'm about to sell
a freaking spread.
I want to as well.
It's just I was really looking for...
Fuck.
Fuck!
Fuck.
That was hilarious.
That's a brutal break-even, but I'll take it.
Save me some money.
Dude, is this a full sin long now?
What are we doing?
Offensive, bro.
Just offensive.
Andre, this is what I mean.
Just like completely disrespecting all gaps.
We're just inversing gap after gap.
We're not really respecting bullish, not really respecting bearish.
Just kind of, right? This is when
I'm like, okay, I'm lucky that
I just got a break-even stock.
I need to fucking walk
away now. No, for sure. And also
if there's a catalyst, any
data goes out the window and there's nothing
that anyone can do about it. If there's
a tweet, if there's a headline, if something
happens, there's absolutely no model
in the world that can predict,
like, unless you have some information
about, like, whatever is going on.
Oh, no.
Like, there's just no way to do it.
So, like, this is part of the game.
Like, all the stats are playing out.
Yeah, and all the stats are playing out.
The IV was right,
like, price is right at that IV low.
The red opening candle,
like, all these different things.
And then too short 10-minute green? Yeah, we rejected that 21 again thank you short 10 minute green yeah here i don't
know i don't know what what platform are you trading on i do trade a bit sure about it okay
I mean, I just, when I'm looking like, like for me back to the same conversation, it's like, like this one indicator I have, which is basically attracts every stock from opening print on the day.
i mean i just when i'm looking like like for me back to the same conversation it's like
Yeah, yeah.
Right now, everything is basically at the flatline.
So like from, from where they open, even if they gapped up, it doesn't take into consideration.
It starts, it starts at like at zero once the prints open and like stocks have barely
moved one way or the other versus yesterday in the afternoon we started that everything started
to fade lower from opening prints so like these internals like nicey breath is 1.21 to 30 point
gain mnq covered half and nasdaq's negative so you just got this parity of this push pull and
that's why you're seeing these wicks on these candles.
There we go, Mabel.
Yeah, I rushed it.
Like I said, if we break pivot,
I have to have my entries within the 9 and 20 EMA on the 10-minute.
But big problem here.
I think we're pinching between the 10-minute 9 and or below their 186.
Yeah, and if you look at the – depending on this candle closes in two minutes but the last two five minute candles you got big wicks to the upside
they got sold it got so got liquidity up there and got sold into IWM getting a nice pop off the new low back to the midpoint.
I'm watching goals retrace back to the 10-minute EMAs.
This is what we talked about as well.
Break or blow pivot, retrace back to the 10-minute,
and then short maybe on a three
minute cvc confirmation sir i got nothing here i got spreads pulled up right now on spy
i just took a black rock long on vest a few minutes ago that's cooking
on the vest on the vest
Like two two years ago me standing in front of a black rock booth with God just smiling
Yeah, black rock nice hammer off the low there
Uh, that thing drills up about six bucks off the low
That could soften up the market to not so much selling.
We'll see.
Zeta.
It's not tech, but it is.
You know what I mean?
It's like how Costco's in the NASDAQ and it's a big weighting,
even though it's not a tech company.
You get what I'm putting down. Oh, that, you get what I'm putting down?
Oh yeah.
You get what I'm putting down here?
Uh, Casey.
Uh, nuts.
Yeah, I'm 100% going Longrovian.
Fuck that. Stop.
No, no way.
What is it? I bet it's back
at 1450, 1455 right now. No way. What is it? I bet it's back at
1450, 1455 right now.
1460.
Yeah, fuck you.
What a piece of shit. Oh, look at the Daily Candle right now, though.
Lucky yesterdays.
I still have my swing on her.
Dude, if I try this for a third time,
I'm going to get death threats from people in the Discord.
Make it four times.
Maybe five.
I grabbed time, so I really...
This could take another while.
If...
If...
Continuing strength as well.
Wow.
At 3.51 p.m. Eastern, Rivian is above $14.75.
I will swing calls again for March.
Until then, it's a piece of shit.
Yeah, market's still weak right now.
Look at this.
Right back down to the lows after that little pumpy-pumpy news.
I still think we take out IBO.
But it's really choppy and not efficient.
Not really respecting gaps at all so This is gross. Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm. So keep an eye on that Ivy low all the data on edge for is supporting for us to go take
that. Thank you. 60 point gain M&Q covered a quarter.
Good stuff.
Nice job slapping it back.
Slapper down.
The VIX is not
fading out with this pop.
It's actually kind of sideways.
It's a little bit of a
caution hair on the back of your neck vibe.
UPS new Hive Day
What
A beautiful daily chart
What's the chance as it fills the gap
To 133
Probably slim to
freaking none, but
that would be pretty brazy.
Let's go see. Your highest gamma on spy, 688. your highest gamma on spy 688 your highest gamma on q 610 spx is 68 60 50 points lower
that seems a little sus
come on i think i think this is another short Come on.
I think this is another short.
I was just thinking the same thing.
I'm not going to put it on because the RR is skewed, I think, but I just want it to
tickle below Ivory Low.
A little tickle?
A little tickle.
A little tick Little tickle. Little tickle, tickle.
Let's see, your...
Oh, it's just crossed back over your calls.
I think it's a fucking short.
Three, two, one, sell. There you go.
Come on.
Come on, come on, turn the radio.
Choppy, choppy, choppy, chop.
Come on, new lows.
Don't stop it here.
New lows.
Yes.
So are you selling any options today?
Put spread, but I want a new low for sure and want to obviously wait until something
kind of comes through for it. Kiitos. Holdin', holdin'. Yeah, this is what i call inefficient price action huh
isrg on the daily is very interesting i think it'll still make its way to this ivy low
i just don't know if i'm gonna be able to be in it
be able to be in it.
Are we done
on the industry?
I forgot.
Come on, baby.
That baby sounds pissed.
I don't know if you can hear that, but it's ear piercing.
Five, four, three, two, one.
I want a new loss.
Volume.
Gosh, 10-7 makes so much sense. Anything I can do? I'm going to back up.
It's brutal here. Mm. Thank you. MNQ short, louder.
I like it.
I can get there.
PA's really choppy, though.
It's just hard to read, but...
Snoozer.
I am with you.
You're so fast
with your Discord notifications,
mates.
Like, you say that, and then I get your
alert instantly. Right there, 30- inside 30 point gain m&q covered half
on the ladder sky is locked yeah you get him
this is locked
it's probably my favorite video.
Do they do it?
Do it for the boys that have been so patient on this morning and that had to endure a breaking stop loss.
They're going for it
come on
come on
you walk him down oh I gotta play walk him down I gotta play that song right now, Walk Him Down.
Yeah, Metro Boomin' 21 Savage.
Yes.
We get new cheddar on Valentine's Day, I'm hyped.
Here we go.
Kuei cheddar. Don't reverse this before you do it.
Struggle buzz.
That is a spicy bounce, won't I?
No. No. Let's go home.
Oh, fuck.
All right, guys.
On that note of this
absolute trash
barcode nonsense.
Rough PA, brother.
I am
out.
Peace out, brother. See you out. Peace out, brother.
Good day for it.
See you later.
You guys have a good one?
I still think this IB date is going to play out,
and you know I will post it when it does.
Okay, good.
All right.
Peace, guys.
Talk soon, Andre.
Appreciate you, my man.
See you later.
Appreciate you guys.
Look at that fake-ass one-minute inversion.
Fake-ass.
Fake-ass.
How many?
Oh, my gosh.
How many ICP traders got stopped on this inversion right now?
On text, ladies and gentlemen.
Can't take every inversion you see.
And it doesn't work.
Come on, drop.
21 Savage, if you don't drop this market right now.
Ta-da, ta-da, ta-da. Thank you. We're almost there.
We're almost there.
Almost there.
Welcome down.
Almost there.
Oh, yeah.
Give me my break even.
A little bit.
100 point gain, M&Q, initial short.
I'm all out.
Ooh, we're going.
Big time.
Come on. Come on.
Come on.
Give it that ripper down.
50 point gain MNQ ladder that we just took cover your order oh my god dude i should have okay maybe
i should have done stops me to break even for me i'd be low taken there you go um unfortunately i
can't be taking profits at i below even though that was my original profit target because I had to take this second short lower, which means I need to still hit a 1-to-1 risk-to-reward ratio, which means I'm looking for TP at 25,075 here.
Got new lows.
I could. People might ask, why don't you just take profits earlier? It's because I don't want to screw up my risk-to-reward ratio.
My risk-to-reward ratio is there for a reason.
I'm not going to sit back and willingly skew that.
So I'd rather get break even than skew my risk-to-reward ratio.
Oh, about to get full TP. This will be 77 points.
Let's see if we can get it here.
I just closed all of my ES short.
I shorted the 21 EMA retest.
Yeah, good stuff. New lows on Q's IWM,
and I'm out half spy puts again for round three
in this freaking up-ass chop.
I'm all out 77 points on that reshort.
Fucking Trump had to stop me out first.
I know.
It stopped out my round two,
and I was like, I'm getting back in.
We got it back, baby.
It stayed valid the whole time.
I ain't ended the daybreak even today.
Fuck no.
Let's go.
Mames, shout out to you.
You shorted the top of that reshort.
I couldn't short it there, but I know you got that.
It was beautiful.
No, I mean, I just knew that I was too eager on it.
And I was like, okay, there's the 10-minute reaction.
Short it.
And when it dropped down, I shorted green,
which lined up with my lower time frame EMA for the ladder.
I want to loan this thing back to $21,100.
And I did that on the CopyTray Futures account.
Oh, shit.
It's actually kind of fun.
Let's go, Casey.
Isn't copy trading amazing, bro?
Dude, it's kind of fun.
Like, I'm watching this trade.
Like, so this short right here on MES.
Nothing crazy, but I just made $300 on this candle,
but I copy traded across the accounts. Yeah, you gotta be you know you gotta be diligent but
um it's just about you know taking less trades taking more high quality trades right
20 point game trim yeah hey but they bro do they bro though
Yeah, they hey, but they broke, though, they broke, though.
Gold may want a lower low.
I got stopped.
$8,909 and then $4,900 yesterday's low.
I just got one trim out of it.
Trim another five here.
I waited so long for that, and I got one trim.
Come on.
Next candle, just sell this thing hughes is about to
hit previous month low all right there you go 100 point gain on the mnq ladder i'm going to cover
down to the runners let's go great job guys i'm trying to see 25 026 which would be that january
uh 21st though i think jordyy, we said? Yes, yes.
That's the next low I have.
I could have maybe tried to target that,
but honestly, I was expecting that we would get
a pretty nice bounce reaction off IV low,
so I just wanted to take my 1-to-1 risk-reward ratio there.
But if I wanted to extend it to there,
that would have been a 1-to to two point something
high volume candle on nvidia
just there
that vix going sideways
while we bounce was a pretty good
risk signal
i shorted spy three times
the same exact contract's expiration around the same price at the
exact same spy price level every time this morning easy peasy like every time spy was around 689.15
i took a short at 10 10 got stopped out at 10 20 took it again at 10 30 caught got stopped out at 1020, took it again at 1030,
called the move down,
and then took it again at 1055
and just called this move down.
Your previous month low just hit on QQQ.
And the buy in it.
Back to the support zone. all right I'm feeling for C down here and I'm having a good day
oh shit
smart man smart man
yes yes
alright I got OD programming
to do I should be
I should have more time on Friday
I'll catch you guys then
later gator Later, Gator.
Come on.
IWM's rolling.
Let's just sell this thing.
Get a spy on New Lowe's. Well, I tried to get a short.
I missed it just off that wick, though.
Plus 1422. Five, four, three, two, one, zero.
Volume!
It's not existed. here we go
yep here we go baby come on give me a new low spy yep yep yep yep yep yep yep yep there we go come on
there it is previous month low hit on queues
IWM new low of day
spy is almost there
come on baby
come on alright Come on.
All right.
310 here on these.
Come on.
Just a wee bit.
Just a wee bit.
All right. just one left.
We want more downside.
We don't want it to stop right there. They just double whipped it at the same price.
We didn't hit my 800 tick line,
but we have been negative 600 for 9 minutes or so.
Ooh, Casey.
Yes?
Rivian just did a full self-driving expansion tweet from...
Oh, didn't you just answer that?
Nope.
Oh, no, you didn't answer that.
I bet they're getting a red candle on that.
No, it's actually 10 cents green.
Let's see, let's see let's see mgc or mnq short ladder 10 minute green that's mnq let's go let's see.
QQQ607 finally hit previous month low.
This is the low from Tuesday, January 20th.
Held multiple times. Your pre-market
low from the next day is around
$6.05, like $50
on QQQ if
this spot gives out.
This is the bouncy, bouncy
area. Oh my god.
Yeah, that double wick right at the same spot,
that's usually...
Look at that.
Look at that.
Let me guess.
Is there news on that too?
Probably, but I'm out now, so I don't give a shit.
For me, that was the full target
on Spy, and that was full target downside
on QQQ.
That's just a big spot overall.
Ooh, Rivian, new high there.
Hmm.
Well.
There's no way I trade SPY for a fourth ton today, right?
That was a spike I didn't want right there.
This is the first purple five-minute VIX candle
indicating possible trend change.
VIX is also putting in an evening star
on your 5-minute.
I may be flipping bullish
rather than trying to reach...
Bullish?
Yeah.
Bullish?
I think if I trade
Spy again, it probably would not be
puts. I think it would actually be calls to take it
back to the top of the zone.
You get a move
breaking base back over 689.20.
I think that might be it. I think that can be a good long
spot. XOM 110 call for December 17, 2027. Just came in.
Someone bought 752 contracts at 4,200 apiece for $3.16 million.
I just shared the two trades I took up top.
I just wanted to see that from the audience.
Those posts are up top.
Is MU getting smoked
today? Yes.
Sandisk, MU,
WDC.
Those tandem names right there.
Yes.
There's a lot of flow on
MU puts.
Yeah, it's coming down to the daily 21's a little bit lower you know like 379 but look how not look at the weekly on that one on the moon
moves sandisk is back to levels not seen since Monday.
As much as I'd be scared to swing puts on the moos.
Not bad.
I'll get AMD at 205. I think I should be long. All right. sorry it's like a little quieter i'm just trying to journal these trades real quick
but um decent bounce still have that low from january I don't even know. 21st, I think it was. Whatever.
MNQ short bill breaker?
Yeah, I just...
Yeah, I still have that 26 as a spot we can rebalance to.
Got equal lows at low a day.
And never long above equal lows.
Maybe spot again another 100 points
in the downside.
I'm going to close the UPS
last runner at 350%.
still fighting, backtesting.
5 minute 9.
Fat.
30 point gain in mid Q, covered half.
Let's go!
What a snipe.
They are not holding any of these buys.
See, right here is the spot where I'm like...
I kind of like it here, yeah, KC.
Your risk to reward is so tight to go long off this spot,
the longer they continue to hold this.
continue to hold this.
But... Thank you. I'm watching here.
I want to see what they do.
See what they do.
Let's break lows, NQ.
Short green, cover red.
New low.
IWM new low day.
50 point gain, covered a quarter.
We're going for that January lower, that January 21st
low, which is 20 points
away, 18 points away.
QQQ's previous day low
was 611, which was
a lot earlier.
SPY's previous day low is still a lot lower so 684
um and iwm's previous day low is still lower as well
spies previous week low 685 the trend line runs directly between those two areas.
So we just hit the same previous month low again right here on Qs, or hitting equal low on SPY.
I think if they break this spot, you'll see almost an instant flush down on SPY to go to 685.
Buyers did step in initially when it was first tested, but sellers are obviously still present.
Okay, I sold put spreads there.
On one set of the count.
Your SPY, your net put premiums are still above your calls.
So still looking good for trend downside.
I'm showing the highest freaking gala is 680 on SPY, which is wild. I guess I can go
puts for round four.
I want longs like almost now.
Short gold scout, three minutes CBC.
I did a put spread that is 550 points out of the money right now.
So that would be another percent and a half on the day at least.
here we go in queue give me 20s 30s 25k would be great we hit 26k yesterday thousand dollar drop
what is iwm What is IWM?
Hmm.
Don't really like it as much.
Buyer's still defending.
There they are.
Popping it. Right off this. Kill stop hitting profit MNQ. are, popping it right off.
Kill stop hitting profit MNQ.
Gosh, dang it, man.
Minus 800 ticks
at that bottom wick each time.
We got two of those today.
BK's just trying to talk me
into a long.
I mean, you missed the dream entry already.
The tick
I generally use
pretty scalpy or quick moves.
AMD is
at 2 of 3.
Stocks down 16%. amd is uh at two of three stocks down what 16
and gap fills right below
starts to go back only 200
Okay.
Okay.
Ooh.
Ondas.
Do I try it here?
Where's WAP? You're sweeping yeah they're trying to they're trying to hold this
look at the three minute look at the five minute we just basically engulfed
i think i missed my long opportunity but i did get my put spread so i'll take it
but I did get my put spread, so I'll take it.
Still need to get above the 5 on the 9 EMA,
which we have not done all day.
Watch an instant red candle come in here.
Straight back down.
Oh, no, for sure.
We haven't gotten above the...
Well, we did earlier, but we're at the 21 on the 9.
I'm sorry, 21 EMA on the 2 minute,
and we have not gotten over the 5 minute 9 EMA.
I still like the longs off that area.
It's just there's a lot of other things that aren't lining up with it
other than just looking at the chart.
I'm looking at him do it.
Look at him do it.
I should have had limit orders in.
I'm going to freaking pull back.
I'll be trimming the shit out of this thing right here.
Yeah, I think I missed my long, but I got the put spread, so I'll take that.
What time is it? 1130?
Oh, I don't know if I can take
an SPX put credit spread here.
No, the premiums are still
really good because of the VIX.
So you probably could.
Let's see.
$10 wide.
Oh, shit. Yeah. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Let's see. $10 wide. Oh, shit.
Yeah.
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
I could sell 6830s right now.
Boy, what the hell.
Mm-hmm. what the hell
if you do one DTEs. I'm already at 50% on this on this red.
Damn.
I think. Damn.
I think.
Wait.
It just showed 50%. You said, I think.
No, it was glitched.
It's only 30%. Amazon to use AI to make shows faster.
I love my favorite series turning into AI Slop.
Nothing more than I want to see AI Slop, Lord of the Rings, and Harry Potter.
Harry Potter.
Harry, how many R's are there in Strawberry?
Two, Hermione.
Comcast is looking fantastic.
Took forever for it to get the squeeze to play out, but it is finally going.
is finally going.
Daily Squeeze fired
Monday to the upside.
Sandisk reclaiming
or blow.
I do kind of have still have hopes for SanDisk maybe memory to hold not pretty
I do kind of have
still have hopes for Sandisk.
Maybe memory too.
nicely
right here I like SanDisk more than micron and me
yes I'm with you i mean
yes rejected 135 we did get over the nine there we did get our first close but
just rejected
two minute hanging man
okay a hanging man yo pleasure making money with you guys today let's do it all again tomorrow have
a great day you too mates great day brother later maple catch you later um i have to go too I actually have to hop on a call
so I will catch you guys in a bit
sounds good Nats
see you later my man
later Gator
tea Shot fest here.
11.30.
Everything after is noise.
No reason to put on any more risk for me.
I'll be done.
Great day.
February so far.
Ooh, AMD down to 203
percent wise
almost 16% here
wow 16
how big of a market cap decrease is that today
probably a good time to change How big of a market cap decrease is that today?
Probably a good chunk of change.
Good chunk of change. Let's see what A&D is at market cap-wise right now. It's at $331 billion.
So it might have been like $410, $420.
Silver dropped off a lot. I was up 9% back to 86 and a half.
HD is green.
Netflix holding green still.
Here's your big fat candle straight back down to the same low. Netflix holding green still.
Here's your big fat candle straight back down to the same low.
Very close to that January 21st low. See if they want to go take it here.
I am still holding up with a lot of strength. Mm-hmm.
Josh Palantur.
Dead.
Oh, they are cooking it.
Wow, that's rough.
ASTS down
12.7.
Rocket Lab down 12.3.
Say again, though, on ASTS percentage, oh my gosh, down 12.3 say again though on ests
percentage oh my gosh looks so bad
we're back testing the previous all-time high
hitting the bottom of this daily range there's nothing
bad about that in my opinion
give a shit if it's 12% doesn't matter
not when the technicals look like this.
If it actually ends up breaking some real structure
to the downside, okay, then we can
start to look that way, but I mean,
you're just at the bottom of this range,
backtesting previous all-time high.
There's not much reason to hate it here, in my opinion.
There's not much reason to hate it here, in my opinion.
But...
Netflix is green today.
Interesting.
I think sub 80, maybe a floor.
Yeah. I do like it down here.
I think we take out this freaking low.
About 25 minutes till lunch.
That's when we're going to lead into the weekly Yield Max combo
that we have every Wednesday.
Then we'll be on stream rest of the day.
But for anybody that is in the audience
that maybe has some questions for the Yield Max team,
make sure and throw those in the chat
when we get that conversation started at the top of the hour.
And get all those answered and have a great combo.
Watch Google earnings on stream today.
Google!
Let's go.
She wants to do.
Q's about to crack this low.
Google. Thank you. There it is. QQQ. Is that new low a day?
I think so.
Buy a penny.
There it is.
New lows.
There she is.
Spine, no such thing. Thank you. there she goes
there it is
making new lows
I should have shorted the back test
and went 4 for 4 on these puts.
I didn't think it would be that easy, though, given the price action.
But it has been lower lows and lower highs.
Been choppy, but still more downside than anything.
There she goes.
It's my thing.
It's just going to knife straight down to the next spot.
Well, Q's technically is.
I think hitting it.
It's about 40, 30 cents away. 3M having a good day.
3M looks really good. Okay. ABGO puts coming in.
AVGO puts coming in.
Oh, God, AVGO.
Oh, AVGO already filled a gap.
The flow is on 295s for today's expiration.
Wild.
All right.
And there's your level on QQQ.
Right there.
Spy, I still think it can go a little bit lower.
Maybe it's week low and day low is still. Okay. Thank you. Oh, what a beautiful move down.
what i said just instant knife straight through it it should go
right to 685 on spot look at this freaking candle
because there's nothing between that zone and this zone
that's the lowest tick of the day. Almost. Yep.
Hit over negative 1,000.
Holy geos, weekly candles, gnarly.
SPX four points to previous week low,
and then another 13 to previous day low.
Spy still can go a little bit more. That's five plus $100 per contract gain on the runners.
Let's go.
Amp hit 200 points. Let's go. Amp hit 200 points.
Let's go.
On the short.
Let's go.
Oh, wow.
When's the last time we were under 25?
Last time we were under 25,000 on NQ was December 18th.
That's rough.
No volume on these AVGO 295s are wild.
All right, Spy, you're almost there.
Keep going.
A little bit lower.
Keep pushing. and we're not slowing down no no there was no reason uh honestly for looking at spy and cues
those one site once that one zone broke there was nothing really between that and this spot
right here that spy is about to hit that previous week low.
Spy just hit 6.85.
What did it hit?
6.85 to the penny.
Previous week low is like 15 cents below it right there.
IWM drilling about to hit previous week low target hits by there it is that's boom
the only thing left is the trend line and previous day low, which is a few cents below. We got December 15th low running Q.
I guess that's December 17th. Oh, Brett, let's go.
$655 across 20 accounts.
That's a $13,000 day.
Dang.
Copy trading is amazing, bro.
More allocation.
You don't need to change how you're trading.
You don't even need to change your sizing. It's just more allocation. Isn don't need to change how you're trading. You don't even need to change your sizing.
It's just more allocation.
Isn't it beautiful?
Keep it going, bro.
That's awesome.
Before you know it, you're like,
oh shit, I'm requesting a $2,000 payout
from fucking 20 accounts.
It's huge.
And the craziest part,
you're not doing any extra work than you normally would.
You're not trading more.
Is it a long right here?
What do we think?
Do I try it?
No. You know, I never doubt you.
It don't look good for long.
Scary.
Plus, I still think IWw can drop a little bit lower
so Okay, a couple points more to previous day-low SPX.
Almost there.
AMD about to hit 200. Look at Microsoft green.
What are you doing? and Vix is going for 20 again Let's see if they can bounce this thing a little bit.
Come on. Come on.
Little bit more, little bit more.
Come on, come on.
Trimmed. and Tick just hit zero line. I just got word from our friend Michael Ko that'll be joining us here in the next few minutes
that our friend Quinn Berry, who is one of the key men executing all the trades in OLTI and SLTY,
some of the Yieldmax tickers there, they're going to be joining us on the live stream as well.
stream as well so well on the spaces so that'll be fun i don't think we've ever talked to one of
So that'll be fun.
the actual besides like jay pastrelli who is running a lot of like the trades down there um
i don't think we've really gotten able to speak to anybody from that side of things So that'll be fun. Make room for them. I'll hop off here.
No worries.
Appreciate you, BK.
Beautiful morning.
You're still...
Covered half.
Good job. Let's go.
See if they try and do a break and reclaim
of this January 21st low.
Hey!
We keep it running.
Hey!
Hey!
I'm out.
Oh, shit.
He sniped it.
All right, I'm out.
There you go.
Order filled.
Done, though.
In case he got his long.
He found it.
That was it.
Oh, perfect.
Let's go.
That's all you need.
Nothing crazy.
Just 12 points, but
I'll take it.
I was really close to accepting the fact that I wasn't trading today with I'll take it. Yeah.
I was really close to accepting the fact that I wasn't trading today
with Trade Ava being down the first portion
and then, I don't know,
the market was just looking a little sloppy,
but I think we'll find a little bit of,
a little bit short there.
I don't know.
It wasn't amazing.
Decent setups that I took. Happy with it, but
could have been a cleaner morning. I'm just happy I survived and I didn't. So happy I won't put my
stop at break even on that first trade because then Trump came out, hit that news. If I didn't
do that, I would have gotten stopped on that that and then basically it went like two points higher and then came back in so that would have really been a gut punch so glad
I went break even as soon as we hit that one like 10-18 low where we were consolidating
there.
We found that re-entry and good to go for the day now.
Michael Ko how we doing?
Good, sir.
You hear me?
Yeah, we got you.
We got you.
Excellent.
Excellent.
I'm just checking to see whether...
Let's see if we got Quinn here.
He's going to be on the Yield Max account? He's going to be on the
Yield Max account?
He's going to be on the Yield Max account, yeah.
Okay. Your mic is a little
glitchy, sounds like.
Toggle some stuff around.
No worries.
That's starting to sound better, yeah.
Yeah, crazy day in the markets.
This market is just really taking a little bit of a hit now.
Getting into some of these January lows.
I know the next spots I have are towards some of these December lows on NASDAQ.
So watching that, but been a great trading morning so far for most of us.
Some of the brokerages were down this morning,
but they always managed.
You see this pullback in gold and silver?
My mic might be glitching too here
foreign
foreign
foreign
foreign
foreign
foreign Okay, I think we're having some connection issues.
I just refreshed mine.
Let's see if this is working better now.
Michael Coe, can you hear me?
Oh, no.
This new Puerto Rican Wi-Fi might be giving me some trouble here.
Okay. hey crypto fit can i get a mic check yeah you just popped back on okay 20 seconds ago. Okay, so you got me. I think Michael Kojic is having some trouble.
We're in this new apartment in Puerto Rico, and we got Wi-Fi, but we need to install the extenders so it kind of extends around the whole apartment.
We've been having a little bit of issues, but I think we're going to be good.
There he goes. There you go.
There's Michael.
Well, yeah, I have a couple of microphones
over here. I might be switching back and forth.
I just tried to do my mobile.
Sometimes the mobile works a little better.
Sometimes the PC works a little better.
Right now I'm on the PC.
Let's see what's going on.
That one seems to be working,
so I think
we're all good there.
So I'll get this title change.
We can start rolling into things.
I know we're going to have Quinn coming up from the Yield Max account.
I'm going to send him another invite real quick.
But yeah, it's going to be fun.
I'm excited.
We haven't really had one of the traders come on besides, I mean, Jay, I guess, right, Michael Kow?
Yeah, so Quinn actually works in the same office with Jay down in Florida.
That's actually where I was last week. I was traveling there.
I was doing the same job last week, so I hope that one went well, but I was at 36,000 feet or whatever.
went well, but I was at 36,000 feet or whatever.
Actually, I was going from West East,
so I was probably at 35,000 feet.
Not number, I assume.
Yeah, so Quinn is,
as everybody knows, we have a lot of traders.
Mike is cutting up a bit.
Is it just Winkrip, though?
No, yeah, you got the little frog in the throat.
Maybe try mobile microphone.
Yeah, do you hear me?
It's just, like, kind of cutting in and out.
Yeah, it's not very clear.
And this is pretty close.
Okay, so this is obviously some kind of connection.
Yeah, that's definitely what it sounds like.
Try to switch back to
networks.
And if not, I think
mobile might be the move
for this morning.
We're going to have a chat with Elon.
What's going on?
I know.
They've got to put some more time on spaces, really.
Dude, the market's doing so bad.
It's just taking down everything.
No demands.
Oh, gosh.
CryptoFit, what do you think about this market right now?
Dude, I'm honestly like I told my wife, I don't know if our son can play lacrosse.
You know what I mean? I'm just, I'm just like, I don't know what, I keep, I keep wondering,
like I was doing cash secured puts on Circle. I'm like, dude, 56 bucks for Circle. That's going to
completely change, obviously the way we transact. I'm like, there's no way. I don't want to get assigned right now. I'm like, yep. Looks like I'm going to take that assignment the way we transact i'm like there's no way i don't want to
get assigned right now i'm like yep looks like i'm gonna take that assignment like this is insane
does this work any better you guys hearing oh that sounds phenomenal yeah we're good now
all right so uh that means ditch the uh ditch the professional television equipment and the
sennheisers and all that stuff and just
go on your mobile device I guess right I know it's ridiculous I know we have we have all this
like fancy equipment for the YouTube stream when we hop on there and then spaces it's always just
our phone it's ridiculous they won't let us use our nice stuff I don't know why uh yeah so anyway
sorry I missed it last week it's I mean it was a what a wild week it's been, too. A lot to
talk about. We've had a lot of holdings that have been moving around a ton. And yeah, if you didn't
hear what I was saying before, I think we've got Quinn on here now. Quinn works in the same office
along with Jay and several other traders. And that's where I was
traveling last week. So I was actually on that trading desk when silver and gold were melting
down on Friday, which was pretty interesting. And I'm sure Quinn will have a couple things to say
about that because we had positions in GLD and GDX and SILJ and a couple other things going in.
But there's an interesting sort of setup on the options side there.
So, yeah, maybe just I'll kick this off by saying, you know, thanks for having us as always.
For anybody who doesn't know who YieldMax is, you can go to YieldMaxETFs.com.
And if you're interested in seeing what the latest distributions on our options income ETFs,
just go to YieldMaxETFs.com forward slash news. And the most recent list of distributions will
be available for you there. But yeah, I mean, with the earnings that have come out,
we've had several, including some in some of the stocks that we own,
like Lumentum, stocks up over 44% since the beginning of last week.
You guys may have talked about that a little bit going into the print,
which they came out with their numbers yesterday.
Teradyne was another one that's up a lot.
We've got that one in Soxie.
That one's up 25.5.
And I know Quinn's got some things to talk about in some of the sector ETFs.
But before we sort of get into it on individual single stocks, Quinn, why don't you
introduce yourself? Do we see? I don't see the YieldMax account up here. I sent him a few
invites. I know he was earlier. He's probably, oh, I see. You know what? I just got something on
Teams. I think he was also having a connection issue. So he is working on his headset, which is what he wears all day
because he's one of the more active traders
since he's kind of the key man on Ulti and Salty
and also some of the sector ETFs also.
So there's a rotation in the background,
but there's usually somebody who sort
of leads the charge on executions day to day and and quins the guy for a lot of that love them
so um yeah i mean before he joins us i thought one of the interesting things that I would just touch on really quickly in light of the moves that we saw in the metals.
So that's gold, silver, copper, too.
perspective is that commodities, unlike single stocks generally and indices more commonly,
have what we call positive skew.
And what that means is that the implied volatility of the upside strikes is typically higher
than it is for the downside strikes. And if we think about this, it does make some sense intuitively why that would be the case,
because you're going to see higher implied volatilities on whatever side of the market
typically is perceived to be of greater risk or where prices can move more quickly.
So when people think about stocks,
oftentimes they figure,
well, they take the stairs or the escalator up
and they take the elevator down, right?
There's demand for downside protection
and people like to sell upside to collect income.
So those forces interact to create skew.
Another thing that can create put skew is leverage.
So if you have a company that's highly leveraged, of course, the equity is going to get more
volatile as the enterprise value declines and the equity becomes increasingly leveraged.
On the commodity side, very oftentimes you get the other way around.
So the risk side is often with higher prices.
And you can see that.
You look at gold prices, you look at silver prices, you can see that they have not only risen sharply over the course of the last couple of years, but they've gotten more volatile as well.
And what dynamic that sets up in the options market is that the upside calls will trade at a premium in implied vol space relative to the downside.
And the nice thing about that, if you are in a strategy where you sell upside calls and buy downside puts, you have a collared position, or maybe you're selling some put spreads, is that you get some asymmetry.
Now, when you're looking at these funds and you're looking at these strategies from one week to the next, you might not observe it that much because the underlying is moving around and you're saying putting a magnifying glass on it, if you will.
And what you'll see is that in things like silver, you can, if you owned silver, you can sell a 20%
out of the money upside call that expires the end of March. And that will fully pay for a 10%
out of the money put. And so essentially what that skew is giving you
is an asymmetric risk-reward relationship on the long side.
That is to say that you can effectively win two units
for every one unit of risk you take to the downside.
So I think that's kind of an interesting element.
We had actually paired some of the metals on Thursday.
There was kind of two dynamics going on there that would cause that.
One was that because we held them, their position inside the funds has gotten a little bit bigger.
So it just makes sense to rebalance.
And once we get Quinn, I'm sure he'll be able to tell us a little bit about some of the rebalances that have taken place in the sector funds.
Hey, Mike, I just joined.
I think I was able to get this set up.
Yes, we got to work in.
Let's go.
Yeah, there he is.
Quinn, introduce yourself, man.
Yeah, absolutely.
Well, appreciate you guys having me on. I have been the portfolio manager on the equity option basket funds for the last,
give or take six months. So that's the Ulti, Ulti, LFGY, GPTY, Biggie, Soxie, Chippy and Renty.
So there's a handful there. And then, you know, there's a lot of outside yield max that we
manage. But yeah, I mean i i caught the beginning of this mike
and then i had to try to get to my phone so i might have missed it but um i would say over the
last couple weeks i guess the last week we did a big rebalance and change
that was driven by a couple things namely the outsized moves and you know a handful of things, namely the outsized moves and, you know, a handful of names like Micron,
Intel, and ACMR over the last, you know, several months. Like it's not just, it happened over the
last, you know, month or two. It's, I mean, a lot of the semiconductors have been running,
but these three especially were running, you know, call it 50 to a hundred percent,
but we trimmed these three among others. And then we added a couple specific names. So like
in Chippy, for example, large reductions in Broadcom, LRCX, and Micron. And then we added
about 3% weight to ARM, ASX, SNPX, STM, and UMC. And in SOXE, we had a little less of a turnover, but options in the Intels,
the Microns, we did take a decent chunk off of NVIDIA, and we added LSCC, and we distributed
some of the other proceeds among the rest of the portfolio. So I think the reason I'm bringing that
up is because you guys all know that we have a lot
of options that we trade, but we're also actively monitoring the equity piece. We're not trying to
turn it over too long, but we want to take advantage when a name's run up extremely quick
and we want to take the profits and distribute it among the rest of the portfolio have a more diversified portfolio.
It was an interesting move we saw in Intel, too, after the earnings came out, appointment there.
Quite a rebound, actually, since the beginning of last week. I think Intel's up better than 14% total returns since Monday the 26th through when I was
looking at this last. What have you been seeing on the options side, Quinn, and Intel?
Yeah, I mean, we talked briefly about Intel earlier today, and I think we're talking a lot
with the market movement today, but we're able to get a lot further out of the money and bring in, you know, the premium that we need in, you know, Chippy, which targets around 35 to 50%.
And, you know, we're able to get, I'm not looking at the chain right now, but we're probably going another couple percentage out a week, you know, with the call spread versus, you know, the normal
volatility that we see in that name. Yeah, I mean, that's actually another kind of interesting
thing that he's hitting on because Intel, this is post earnings, you know, typically you're going to
see a big vol crush take place in a lot of names after a catalyst comes and goes. Some of the movements that we've
seen recently have been so sharp that not only have we not really seen much of a vol crush,
in some cases, implied volatility, that is the price of options, which is critical to us,
of course, because we're trying to sell premium to generate income, has actually gone up a lot.
And that's maybe not that surprising given how sharp the moves have been. But
one month implied vol in Lamentum after they announced, now it's just after, right? Because
their numbers came out yesterday. But that's actually slightly higher.
Teradyne, which was two days ago,
volatility has come in,
but less than 10 clicks off a 66 handle.
So still a decent amount of premium there.
What about some of the names that...
I noticed that Novo was in Salty, Quinn.
Remind me, when did that get added to Salty?
Sorry, you cut out, I think, right as you were mentioning the ticker.
Which one?
Oh, Novo.
I was just, you know, because we've got Novo and Salty, which for those who don't know is the bearish option income ETF.
Novo announced earnings yesterday.
But since last Monday, the stock's down pretty sharply.
When did that one get added to Salty?
Yeah, that's been in I think a couple weeks now.
Yeah, that's been in, I think, a couple weeks now.
And I'm looking at the current position.
I think there was a little discussion on whether we were going to keep it in there or get rid of it.
We held on to it.
We rolled everything out until next week.
And the stock's down another week.
So we're short the stock at 52.34.
And we made a lot of that move down yesterday and now we're you know generating a lot more
premium here with the down move so i'm not sure exactly when we got in but i think it was fairly
recent but about 10 higher than where we are right now nice nice um all right well you know i'll
that's sort of what i had for us to sort of kick things off.
And since there are a lot of these names moving and there's still going to be a lot coming up with respect to earnings,
I figured I'd kick it back to you guys and see whether some people had some questions for us.
Yeah, I'm curious, CryptoFit, do you have any thoughts or questions for the team here right now?
Do you have any thoughts or questions for the team here right now?
I mean, no, yes and no.
My group's been pretty silent.
Everybody's really, you know, we're all hurting, man.
Like, I think not necessarily the education has been there, right?
The education should always be there, that this is not something you just buy
and you expect it to go up and up.
And I think finally YieldMax has pioneered the way,
but I just don't think people have found proper allocations.
Like even with me, right now I'm at about 50%,
reinvestment 50% for my life.
And even that in a down market like this,
it's not gonna, that's not going to, that's not going to play. Right. I, so I think
that people have over complicated the situation with the distributions because they should have
been using it like targets the whole time. It really, if you want to do it well, there needs
to be an element in a plan. It doesn't need to be a spreadsheet, but hey, 80% is being reinvested.
80% is being reinvested.
Kind of trying to preach that to them.
And there's going to be better times than not, right?
But, sorry, I'm almost done with this rant.
If you decide you're going to do the 4% rule, I mean, what happens when you retire
and we have a 15% drawdown year one?
So these should and can be used for income.
They're so tax efficient.
But during the bad times, you've got to stick with your plan and not get too excited.
So that's really all I'm seeing is people are, you know, they're jumping ship.
A lot of people jumped out of WiMAX.
I'm like, I'm not jumping out of WiMAX.
Like, it's just, you know know it's doing alti's doing
much better with this downturn i then then i had prior i mean it's holding up strong but yeah that's
really all i got just uh i just i love you guys you know what i mean let's learn this together
appreciate that appreciate it uh yeah i mean obviously alti Appreciate it. Yeah, I mean, obviously, Alti, most of you will know who've been following YieldMax for some time are aware at this point that, you know, Alti made some strategic changes.
There was a sticker put on the prospectus first week of December.
And, you know, since that time,
and we've seen some pretty wild stuff go on since then.
But on a total return basis,
Ulti, you know, which is going to have
a lot of high beta stocks just by virtue of the fact
that it's, you know, an ultra high income ETF,
it's going to be in higher beta stocks.
Those are going to correlate
probably to the higher beta constituents
even of the triple Qs.
And on a total return basis,
since those changes were implemented,
which Quinn is actually kind of the man
who's handling that from one day to the next,
it's outperformed the triple Qs by about 132 basis points
since that sticker went on.
So we are happy about that.
We'd have been happier perhaps
if we didn't see the medals get hit quite as hard as they did.
But that's one of the reasons why the strategy
where you have a bit of a collar
on can be helpful. And as I was pointing out, the options market just giving us a little bit
of positive skew there does give us some asymmetry. And all of these funds, we've published
the holdings overnight. So there's's complete transparency if anybody's interested in taking a look you can you can just go to the website and see
not only what the holdings are but what the trades were the previous day um but yeah it's uh you know
there's a lot there's a lot going on for sure and you're gonna see a lot more in terms of volatility
just while we're dealing with the quarterly earnings releases, we're kind of in the thick of it now.
And then I kind of expect things are going to settle down a little bit thereafter.
But as I said, some of the names that have moved a lot, implied vols remain elevated.
From my perspective, that's a good thing. If you have an opportunity to sell premium at reasonably elevated vols after a catalyst has taken place, after a stock's had a big move, it's interesting.
Carter Wirth, who's on CNBC with me quite a lot, he'll make the comment that that's one of the times that equities are going to be the most efficiently priced is right after as much information and as current information as you could possibly
have is going to be available to you.
And that's going to come after something like a quarterly earnings release.
There's a big reset that takes place sometimes when that new information is released to the
market.
Normally, you would expect options premiums to come in, but sometimes just because
it sort of catches people off so much, that's not what happens.
And you can extend what you're doing for a couple more weeks.
One other interesting thing, and this happened last week, so I don't know if you guys talked
about it on Spaces or not, but we got the intraweek options on a handful of single stocks,
MAG7 names.
Quinn, in one or two cases,
you guys have actually put some trades on in there, haven't you?
Yeah.
So on NVIDIA, because of the move, and this is prior to today,
the move to NVIDIA, to today, the move on video,
we wrote out call spreads to next Monday instead of Friday in the following week.
So we're able to kind of bring in premium on a shorter basis,
but still go out a little bit further than this upcoming Friday.
So it gives us the ability to be a little bit more flexible.
I guess, too, that's really my thoughts, too, Quinn,
is how flexible can you really be from the trading side of things?
I know you guys are probably pretty rule-based and mechanical,
but are you able to kind of have a little bit of discretion
when you are positioning or when you're selecting strikes? I'm curious what that looks like. Are you guys very rule-based and just
following the mechanics no matter what? Yeah, so actually NVIDIA is not a fund under the
baskets, right? That's a, you know, single stock name. So I don't know. I mean, I know that their
strategy is bringing the premium when you want. The PM over there mentioned that I think
the NVIDIA call spread was the first one they put on. And yeah, given the perspectives, they're
allowed to write short dated options, which now is almost every day on some of these names. If not
that soon will be probably the case. On the option basket side, it's the same idea where, you know, in Ulti,
we have the ability to be even shorter dated on, you know,
some of these names that, you know, like Google, for example,
that has earnings today.
Like if we wanted to, we could have waited until today to put on,
you know, the Friday collar or put spread or something like that.
It's definitely something we're looking into, but this is kind of the first time we're doing
it and I think we're going to see how it works out.
I think the question more is about liquidity, which I haven't really looked at the options chains over the last few days after these new listed strikes out.
So it'll be kind of one of those, test as we go and see how it works out.
Yeah, I mean, it's interesting, of course, given the size of some of these trades,
liquidity is an important consideration for the traders. I was looking last week.
So on Friday, I was just curious about what was going on in some of these intraweek options.
And specifically, the name I happened to be looking at at the time last Friday was Amazon. And the reason I was looking at Amazon is I thought, you know, one of the things this does
is it really gives remarkable resolution into the event variance. How much is the options market
expecting something like earnings to actually move a stock? Because now that you've got the
intra-week options, Amazon had Feb 4th expiration, and it has Feb 6th expiration, and they're reporting on the 5th,
and you could see the difference. And it was interesting because the at-the-money straddle
for the 4th of February for Amazon was about 40% of the value of the Feb 6th straddle. This is as of a week ago. So what that was telling you
was that the earnings print itself
was arguably going to create
twice as much volatility
as the five calendar days
collectively before that.
So I think that was kind of interesting.
The second thing I thought was interesting,
just with respect to what Quinn was talking about in terms of liquidity, is that I saw that there was well over 100,000 contracts traded in Amazon by about the time that we ordered coffee in the office, Quinn, because I sort of had it up on a monitor there, and I think there was like 130,000 of the intraweek options had traded in Amazon.
So I was not including last Friday's expiration.
I was just taking a look at the twos and fours.
So that was Monday, Wednesday, which is quite a lot. I mean, when you think about it, 100,000 contracts for most stocks would be a
lot of volume, let alone for just a Monday and Wednesday expiration in one name almost immediately
after they've been listed. Because my guess is maybe not everybody was even aware that that was
the week that they were coming out. But yeah, I think it's interesting
and that volume suggests
that there's a decent amount of demand for that.
One final sort of data point
that I think kind of suggests
that there is considerable interest in these
and we'll see whether it's buying-based flow or selling
is just take a look at the percentage
in the index ETFs and the
indices themselves that's zero DTE.
There's a high percentage of volume in those products that's zero DTE.
It suggests that a lot of day traders or short-term position traders are using these things.
And depending on whether the lion
share that flow ends up being buying or selling, if there's a lot of short term positioning being
used with net premium buyers, that could set up very favorably. Because that could create,
you know, basically, some backwardation in the term structure,
meaning that the short-term implied volatilities will be a little bit elevated.
And Quinn and the team should be able to capitalize on that
if that proves to be the case.
We'll see. It's early days, but it's very interesting.
Quinn, can I ask you a question since we don't get you on here often?
Sure.
All right.
Being that I'm a crypto guy turned income turned here.
Right.
When you're when you've been in crypto for so long, called Bitcoin, whatever, you have
to have a three prong approach.
You have to have some TA, follow all the TA guys,
follow the TA, learn TA.
You have to have some element of like news
and then you have to have some element of tin hat.
But you got to combine all three of those together.
And I just want to know,
as someone who does the trades,
what do you think about micro strategy right now?
Like at some point, this is a joke. Is this thing
like, do you give me something? Give me just your own opinion and rant about what you think
is going to happen with micro strategy. I have no idea. Yeah, it's a good question. I mean,
we've been talking about it for the last, I mean, many months, especially the last few weeks with this continued rundown.
I mean, I'm not particularly that into, you know, the crypto markets like some of the other guys on the team who actually.
So I'm the PM.
So like there's a couple of guys who are I would say they're more focused on the crypto funds that we have like LFGY.
And there's a couple outside of YieldMax.
But I mean, I'm thinking at one point, you know, there's got to be some sort of rebound.
And when there is, I mean, you got to think MSTR is going to have, you know, rebound.
But I've also been thinking that for quite some time now when it broke below 200.
Now it's back down in
the 120 range. So it's a difficult question to answer. I know Scott Snyder, who's been on here
before, he's the one who trades MSTY, and he's just about had it at this point. But that's a
tough thing, too, is we manage the positions.
I mean, I guess in that light,
we could look at potentially increasing our exposure here,
but that's something we would take a few weeks to discuss
and not just kind of jump into it.
But yeah, it's definitely an interesting spot at this point.
I would tend to think it's probably not.
But, you know, I've been saying that for a while now.
So, yeah, you don't want to listen to me on that.
Oh, it is.
Well, first of all, with strategy, for sure, strategy is going to, largely it's going to attract Bitcoin.
It used to trade at a big premium.
Now on a market cap basis, it trades at a discount to their holdings.
But if you're looking at Bitcoin and strategy, you have to say, okay, well, where is a reasonable
level for this thing to find its footing? Now, I don't have an opinion on this per se,
but I do know some of the things that people are looking at.
So what are some of the things that people are looking at?
One of the numbers that I think was clearly in view,
and it hit and blew through, was that one-year fib,
which also happens to coincide with one of the lower estimates
for the non-amortized lowest mining costs at 74.4 in Bitcoin.
And we're below that now.
So if you're looking at that and you say, okay, well, what are the next stops?
Well, one that I've also heard people talk about is, you know, we've got a five-year FIB retracement at 70 spot eight in Bitcoin.
And then another at 58 or so, which also happens to coincide with the 200-week moving average.
You know, in the last many years, we've had four meaningful pullbacks.
Now, I'm not trying to put a scare into anybody, but we need to understand how much these assets
move around.
move around. We've had four pullbacks in Bitcoin that were 80% plus. I'm not saying we're going
We've had four pullbacks in Bitcoin that were 80% plus.
to get an 80% plus pullback. Maybe this thing catches a bid at that 70 spot eight level.
And if that's the case, then most of that damage is done. By the way, just if someone's looking at
a chart and you're saying, okay, what is that number? Why does anybody care about it? That's the level
from whence Bitcoin broke out when it did so late in 2024, right? So when you're kind of thinking
about, you know, where people draw lines, they look, you know, where it broke out, where it broke down,
you know, things like that. So, you know, 651,000 Bitcoin, you know, times the current number
gets you to something higher than the 41 million market cap. Now, a lot of people will point out
with respect to strategy, they carry some debt, they have some preferreds. Very true. The converts aren't struck though
at spot. So a lot of those converts are struck at considerably higher levels than where strategy
shares are right now. And what that means is that the early benefit of any accretive value that
comes from an increase in Bitcoin's prices will go to the micro strategy shareholders first,
before it goes to the converts, and so on. You know, in a way, and I've said this before,
Um, you know, in a way, and I've said this before, you know, what Michael Saylor has
done is, you know, he's, he's a vol seller too.
He was selling vol on his own shares.
When you issue a convert, you're basically saying, I'm going to borrow money.
I'm going to pay no interest, but I'm going to give you a call on my own stock at a higher
strike.
Some of those strikes are over $600 a share in MicroStrategy.
So from the perspective of a buyer of the stock here,
kind of to Quinn's point,
you get outsized participation
in the upside move from Bitcoin
if you're a strategy shareholder here.
And as it gets higher, you know, at various levels,
and the best thing I would suggest for anybody who's really interested,
you can just create a spreadsheet and say,
okay, well, how many securities on their cap table
have a claim on the upside?
There's six convertible bonds, and then there's some preferreds.
But the strikes on a lot of those converts are much higher. And what that also tells you is that
the volatility surface, it should sort of curve downwards. So, because effectively a buyer of MicroStrategy shares
gets a claim on the current bit of Bitcoin
and then call spreads on another portion.
Effectively, it's the way to think about that synthetically.
Roger, did you have some thoughts or questions for the team here?
Hey guys, yeah, thanks.
I wanted to ask about Ulti if it's okay to shift from MicroStrategy.
Specifically, I was looking at the Intuit position in Ulti and some of the others that
have been underperforming, and I'm just kind of curious, at what point do you throw in the towel
on some of these stocks that are just tanking?
I think Las Vegas Sands was one of them
that just kept going down day after day.
And then I noticed Intuit was down as well.
So do you have like stop loss orders
or could you speak about,
when do you trim the positions there that are underperforming when you want to grab that one
yeah so i can i can speak briefly about that um so we actually have an equity research team now
that you know after i would call it the portfolio overhaul starting the beginning
of December, they've, you know, built out an IPS. And I would say, yeah, Intuit is unfortunately
one of the worst performers definitely since, you know, we initiated the position. I mean,
I think there's probably a little bit of conversation about what to do here.
I think there's probably a little bit of conversation about what to do here.
You know, it is one of the few, I would say, that is, you know, dragging the fun down.
But we have held fairly tight puts, given like the lower vol in that name.
With this down move, vol has ticked up.
ticked up. So yeah, that's that. But we have been, you know, keeping the losses to a rather,
So, yeah, that's that.
you know, decent level, if you will, compared to, you know, some of the higher of all names.
But I do think software is one area where our exposure has been a little bit more light, unfortunately for us, compared
to some of the other areas that we've been in.
Yeah, gotcha.
So would it be fair to say that if a stock screens through your investment policy and
it's something that you want to be long termterm on you're still going to hold it even
if it you know like in the case of intuit drops 30 or so um and there's no like stop loss limit
on there as long as you're still bullish on the stock even if it's underperforming you're still
going to hold on to it is that how to think think about it? Yeah, I mean, Mike, you're in the investment committee.
So let me, yeah, I can.
So, you know, one way to think about how the stocks are managed in here.
First of all, you're right.
There is a screen at a high level.
What are some of the elements that go into the screen?
We have some factor analysis that we know over.
I think it's important to recognize that because we're trading options, we do care a decent bit about what the relative performance of constituent stocks that are selected for the portfolio are likely to do
over, say, a 30-day window.
So there is a high-level sort of fundamental view, which is, does the company exhibit,
well, assuming, let's start even higher level than that.
Of course, it has to be liquid enough to land in a fund that manages over a billion dollars.
So that's the first thing. Things that are not liquid enough are going to be excluded for to land in a fund that manages over a billion dollars. So that's the first thing.
Things that are not liquid enough are going to be excluded for that reason straight away.
But outside of that, and then also, of course, it's going to be, I'm going to say, not high
volatility, but higher in general.
So you're looking at names that, for the most part, are going to have implied volatilities
in excess of 30%.
Many will be much higher than that.
So, you know, once you have sort of looked at a universe of securities that fit those two, what are the other things that we're looking at?
You know, we're looking for revenue growth.
revenue growth. We are looking for earnings growth. We are looking to enter a position
We are looking for earnings growth.
for a stock to have at least some positive momentum indicator. Typically, that would be
exhibited by being on the high side of a moving average like the 50 or 200.
side of a moving average, like the 50 or 200. Now, to your point, what happens if and as a stock
is now below that? Well, it is on watch, but to Quinn's point, remember that Ulti is running,
essentially, synthetically, you've got in-the-money call spreads, right? If you have a long stock
position, your long puts, short calls, so your immediate exposure is going to be a little bit more muted. You don't have
as much of a disaster risk in the event that something pulls back. Assuming that some of
these other things remain intact, if you have something that's on watch, you know, every
portfolio has the higher conviction names, things that one really likes.
And then it has other names that fit the bill, but because of their performance, such would be true for Intuit, I think, are now ranking lower.
In order for it to drop out, either it has to have completely violated, at this point, the fundamental point of view. And there also has to be a
constituent that would be added that now ranks more highly. So when we think about what the CIO
is doing, what folks like Mike Venuto are up to, they're looking at the portfolio in the context of all of these factors that are in the IPS and the ranking of things that are on the radar but are not yet in the fund for their subsequent addition.
And, you know, there will hopefully we get names like light and iron.
Sometimes we're going to get names like Intuit.
You can bet that it, you know,
if it falls probably on, you know,
I'm going to say there's six critical factors.
Don't have to get into all of them now.
And if we had something visual,
I'd probably show what the track record
of these factors are over the course of time
on large data sets.
But yeah, I mean, underperforming stocks will eventually, just as a part of the process,
be removed and others will be added.
Okay, great. That makes sense. And I think, would it be fair to say that your time horizon for a lot of these stocks isn't 30 days, but and proven performance on large data sets over 30-day windows over lengthy periods of time.
But if you've been an observer of the funds, you're going to notice that that does not necessarily mean that that is why a stock is being added or removed.
So in other words, factors can be important as investment considerations,
but that does not necessarily mean that the horizon over where they have demonstrated success
is necessarily the investment horizon that we have.
And you can see that because a lot of these names have been in the fund for a long time.
A lot of the names in the fund, Quinn can probably speak to this better
than I, have been in Alti, for example, since well before even the prospectus change. And the
prospectus change was not a wholesale change. It was a refinement where one of the things that
was definitely being looked at was, you know, conditional correlation,
because conditional correlation is one of those things that, you know, you don't even
know that you have it necessarily until it bites you, which is to say that, you know,
you can have names that are not in the same industry, not even in the same sector, don't
necessarily have anything to do with one another. But in a high beta portfolio,
you always have this sort of risk on risk off issue, because higher beta stocks tend to get
hit first when markets start to roll over. When crypto began to get hit in early October,
a lot of higher beta stocks that didn't really have anything to do with it got hit as well.
So some of these refinements were largely based on trying to eliminate that as a potential risk, or at least to mitigate it.
And that has to do with that non-correlated sleeve.
It's one of the reasons why you've seen things like Southern Copper in there and the gold miners and Siljay were in there.
And also because that was just, you know, if we think about the momentum aspect, if we think about some of the fundamental aspects, in fact, remained pretty moribund, the margins for those businesses expanded tremendously.
And so they were due to play catch up.
So, yeah, I hope that answers your question.
I don't want to get too long winded on this, but.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Thanks, Mike.
And then, sorry, last question.
I noticed Ulti had sold GLD gold but held on to GDX.
And you also have the silver miners as opposed
to the SLV ETF.
Just curious why that would be.
Is that to maybe capture more upside or protect more downside?
What's the kind of thinking there?
So actually, GLD was in there and was removed.
Quinn, maybe you can speak to that?
Because I believe that actually happened before gold rolled over on Friday, right?
Correct.
On Thursday, I forgot the exact price, but at a much higher price, I can confirm that.
And then I didn't actually catch, I don't know if it's my phone going in and out, but
you mentioned SLV, Roger, was that, are you kind of questioning about like the SILJ versus SLV?
that are you kind of questioning about like the SILJ versus SLV?
Yeah. Yeah. The question is just really why hold the miners as opposed to like the metals? What's
the benefits of that? I'm sorry, Mike. I don't know if you could hear that, but I heard just
the question about benefits. I think your, yeah, I think your headset's coming in and out.
So let's talk a little bit.
So they paired gold on Thursday,
partially due to, you know, portfolio sizing issues.
And you can jump right in if, you know,
if you happen to be hearing this clearly, Quinn,
if and when you are.
I will say that this kind of goes to the point
I was just making a little bit, which is that, you know, the metals have had quite a run.
Historically, you know, there's unsurprisingly a close correlation between the miners and the precious metals.
And typically, the miners have exhibited some leverage to the price of the underlying. They had underperformed that for some period, actually.
So if you think that the miners should basically have 2x leverage to the metal on the upside,
that was kind of like a rule of thumb that was long used.
They underperformed that by quite a significant amount.
Now, if you thought that the rally in the metal was going to be very short-lived,
then you might speculate on the metal for just that period of time.
But if you thought that you had a big run, maybe things are going to stabilize,
but they're going to stabilize at a higher level,
and the input costs of mining are going to remain low,
then that's going to play into the factor analysis that I was talking about in the IPS,
which is more on the fundamental side, which is, are you expecting the revenues to grow?
Are you expecting EPS to grow perhaps even faster?
And even at the current levels,
but certainly at the levels that we had seen most recently,
you would indeed expect that
because a lot of the other operating costs
for the miners had not risen anywhere near as quickly.
So there was significant margin expansion.
And in fact, they would be poised to see far better
and higher profits in theory, even if gold just sort of maintained its current level.
So that would be part of not like it's not an individual rationale, but it goes into the factors, right?
So the factors do include revenues.
They do include earnings for share,
they include growth in both of those aspects. So, you know, that combined with things like momentum and vol, those things, for example, are going to have a lot in common, as you would expect between
the metals and the miners. But the metals don't actually have
revenues. They don't have earnings. So, you know, if you're looking at Ulti right now,
you can correct me if I'm wrong, Quinn, but I think only the miners are in there at this point, right?
That is correct, yes.
That is correct, yes.
Awesome. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.
Some great thoughts, crew.
I know we got about 10 minutes left here on the conversation,
but Quinn, pleasure having you on here
and being able to answer some of our questions.
We always got some great questions from the panel, so I just appreciate you coming on and hanging out with us and
hopefully look forward to have you guys on again. Yeah, thanks for having me.
Yeah, absolutely. I'm just curious, I guess, from your perspective,
going into the thick, we're getting towards the, I guess, more towards the middle of 2026 now,
We're getting towards the, I guess, more towards the middle of 2026 now off the beginning of things.
And it's been wild in the market.
We've seen a lot of the metals do their crazy moves to the upside and actually come back in.
Now, crypto just hit 2025's lows yesterday, which I thought was insane.
So I'm just curious kind of on your overall outlook of the market, if you'd like to give it.
Obviously, I know no financial advice or anything. But what is your take when you look at some of the crypto where it's at and just overall the metals?
I personally, when I look at things, I'm seeing the metals kind of roll over a bit now.
And the way I look at it is, you know, where are you going to take those profits?
I think you would roll them right into something like Bitcoin sitting at 2025 lows. But I'm just curious on
your perspective, being the trader that you are, curious on what you're seeing. Yeah, you make an
interesting comment about rolling out of metals. And I mean, if you look at those two charts,
they're probably inversely correlated pretty highly the last few months if not at least yeah I
guess the last few months yeah I mean we you know we have the SILJ in in Ulti
and there was a conversation about maybe even having SLV in salty given you
know the volatility because you could we can make money in salty with silver if it trades flat and
the vol stays up here, right? I mean, if it starts trading flat for an extended period of time,
we'll just lose all the premiums that we can make right now. But yeah, I do think that it does look
like the metals have finally cooled off. Today, you're seeing a pretty decent pullback from the high. And Mike did mention a couple technical points.
Bitcoin at that 2024 level that we had some resistance at in Bitcoin.
We hit that level like one, two, three, almost four, five times.
We're right there now.
So this is, I mean, this could be a pretty important level.
And if we break through here, then, you know, I think I've heard 50 range.
But I do feel like more in terms of the general market, seems like there's definitely some
volatility that will play out for at least another couple months. And maybe it'll settle down
around summertime, if not shortly before, because I know that's typically a little lower volatile
environment when people take off for trips and whatnot. But yeah, I think volatility is here to
stay. And I think you did hint that probably something that could definitely play out is, you know,
a turn out of metal back into Bitcoin, which is probably where a lot of the flows out of Bitcoin went in.
And then you could see that reverse.
Yeah, definitely.
It's just something I'm watching right now.
And, you know, with Bitcoin hitting the level that it's hit yesterday, I definitely picked up some and still still can see
it move lower. I know you mentioned 50k. I got some spots around like that 63 area. So definitely
watching to see if we go lower. But yesterday was just the first time I actually dipped into it with
some size and yeah, just excited to see where it goes and see where the rotation happens. So
I appreciate those thoughts from you. Yeah, Michael, I want to give you the last few minutes.
I know we're about to wrap up, but you got any last thoughts for us
or any big news you want to put in front of our eyes
before we get wrapping up?
Yeah, I mean, I think one of the things that got mentioned
at the end of last week with respect to how the medals got hit
was the announcement earlier that, you know,
Warsh was going to be the president's selection for the next Fed chairman. And I think I'm not
saying anything that everybody on this call doesn't know already. Warsh has been highly critical of
the Fed's use of its balance sheet in the past.
And so the narrative that surrounded that was, oh, okay, so they're going to pair the balance sheet.
Therefore, we don't need to, maybe we don't need to think about the precious metals quite the same way.
I think maybe there's some truth to that.
Maybe not.
But I will say that given the run that the metals had had,
as pronounced as it was,
just waking up each day, new highs, new all-time highs.
And then towards the end in silver there,
it was interesting because we had a couple intraday reversals.
Didn't quite close lower,
which would have been a hugely bearish pattern.
But boy, we came close on numerous occasions where, you know, we'd open higher, trade to fresh all-time highs and then sell off.
And, you know, when I was on the floor of the NYMEX as a commodities trader, that was always one of the really bearish
patterns.
But I would actually say something else about the Warsh thing, which is that the markets
just needed an excuse.
You had a parabolic move in the metals and silver recently in particular.
And everybody knew the music was playing and everybody figured that at
some point it's going to stop. Nobody knew exactly when. They were just looking for an excuse,
I think. And Warsh kind of provided one. I mean, if he was really going to be wildly hawkish,
it's unlikely. We don't know what conversations go on behind closed doors.
But if he was going to be wildly hawkish, something that, you know, we view the administration as not necessarily in favor of, that certainly is not what they are jawboning about.
They want more accommodative policy. They've said so on numerous occasions.
Besant has said it. The president has said it. So I don't think that people should take that appointment and just say, oh, you know, I remember seeing a speech that Warsh gave several years ago where he said the Fed shouldn't use its balance sheet like this.
And therefore, we're going to take $6 trillion off.
I don't know that that's the correct interpretation. I think that sometimes when you have risk assets, like the metals have been
performing of late, you know, they're taking on a mind of their own. They get into a parabolic
place. And it almost doesn't matter what reason the markets are provided. People are just waiting
for one. And yeah, I think that one got selected.
Just we'd come quite a ways.
On the crypto side, this is, as Quinn pointed out, and as you're pointing out, this is a very critical level.
I think that below, where are we right now?
About 72.4 or so in Bitcoin.
It's not clear to me why that is a meaningful level of support. In the 60s,
which is kind of that range that it occupied for much of 2024, basically from March through September. So high 50s, depending on which is your preferred indicator and where you draw your lines.
58.8 maybe.
Seems like there should be some support there to my eye anyway.
I'll allow other people who do more technical analysis than I do to give their more expert opinion.
But it does begin to look interesting because I also believe that the metals had taken some of the capital
that had previously been going into Bitcoin. Certainly it was taking some of the institutional
money like central bank money. And they don't typically turn sellers. So I wouldn't expect
gold and silver to suddenly get, you know, they don't get scared out of their trades. They can
print money to buy the things they have.
So it's unlikely to me that they're going to be turned sellers
of the metals anytime soon.
But yeah, Bitcoin is definitely getting into an interesting space in here
as we sort of return back to those mid-2024 numbers.
And most of the people on this call will know
what Bitcoin can do if it catches a
bid from those levels the way it did in the latter half of that year.
Let the crypto fear set in. I love it. I'm seeing it all on my timeline. Oh boy.
But it's just nice to know that most of us are prepared to try and buy up some of the dip
and keep a level head through some of the fear
because I know it can get rough here.
So that's some great thoughts, Michael Coe.
I appreciate you.
Quinn, appreciate you again.
Make sure you guys in the audience
are following that YieldMax account.
Follow Michael Coe here on X
and all the other panelists that join us every week.
We appreciate you guys.
And yeah, excited maybe to have Quinn on a little bit more.
I like having, I like being able to talk a little bit more trading,
getting into the details of that.
So it's really good conversation all around.
But Michael Coe, Quinn, you guys got any last thoughts before we wrap up?
I mean, you did mention it's nice to to have ears on i think there's actually a plan
to have you know a handful of the portfolio managers calls like you know on like a staggered
every week something like that so you'll you should be hearing um from a couple more guys
over the next few we haven't been on before to get some fresh thoughts there that'll be phenomenal
really good stuff michael ko you just let me know you uh Really good stuff. Michael Coe, you just let me know.
You have us on DMs or email.
You just let us know who's coming in.
That's the plan.
And we'll set that up, yeah.
Yeah, that's the plan.
We'd like to, and you know, maybe look at these levels.
I think maybe we get Scott on again sometime soon
and he can talk a little Misty, play Misty for us, right?
Yeah, the idea is to get more of the traders who are actually in the trenches watching these things every day
trading these things every day talking to the people who are invested in them so that they
know who's managing their money what they're seeing what they're doing and why they're doing
it um i think that's kind of the whole idea um so that's our
intent i love it yeah i don't think i don't think there's anybody really more transparent than you
guys you guys have come on every single week for i gosh i don't even know how long now it's been a
while and just been super open to everybody answering any questions that come about so
yeah really appreciate you guys and that's gonna it going to do it for the Spaces today. We're all going to hop on stream right now.
I know most of the guys are already on there making some trades.
So I'm going to hop over there and join them.
But a phenomenal day on Spaces.
We'll be back tomorrow bright and early for Thursday trading.
And I believe we got some more earnings popping off to watch, especially this evening.
So it'll be a fun rest of the week.
We'll see you guys on stream.
And if you missed the conversation over the entire morning,
this all is recorded.
So you guys can go back and listen to it and share it out.
So we'll see you guys tomorrow.
Enjoy the night.
Peace out.
Thanks.
Take care.
