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YIELDMAX WEEKLY DEEP DIVE!!
Recorded: April 8, 2026 Duration: 4:10:10Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. good morning spaces crew happy wednesday everybody oh my lordy this market is absolutely ripping
some crazy stuff happened last night actually myself and myself and a lot of the Wolf crew, we were all on a call just hanging out when this news all came out last night.
And we've just been straight up since.
Absolutely straight up since.
Yeah, we started to unleash a little news monster here on Jordan. Watch out.
I know. I might be getting a run for the money. We might have a new...
I'm actually enjoying. I know. I was able to find that before you did. I was surprised.
Well, let's not get crazy on that one. But you got it really quickly, dude.
Speeding up. Good job.
Long story short, for the people that don't know what happened last night
uh 14 hours ago president trump said i agreed to suspend the bombing and attack of iran for
a period of two weeks this will be a double-sided ceasefire um and then iran came back and oh yeah charlie coming in and then where was that do you remember what the actual
headline was that came out after that with me and emper reading off to you and then um there was
headlines that um iran came in and agreed to it there's been a little back and forth. There's still been some missiles fired and stuff. I mean, it included Lebanon
or something, too.
But, yeah.
I don't know about that one.
I mean, Israel was also striking
Lebanon last night, Hezbollah, but...
Interesting.
There was still some missiles going back and forth.
There were some reports that a Saudi
Arabian, they created a pipeline to go from the Red Sea to the other side
where they could, or from the east to the west,
so that they could export and not go through the Strait of Hormuz.
Apparently that was hit this morning.
But it seems like we're getting confirmation.
We had a couple Trump Truth Social posts out this morning
saying stuff like,
the United States will work closely with
Iran, which we have determined has gone through
what will be a very productive regime
change. He also said
any country supplying military weapons
to Iran will be immediately tariffed
50%. No
exclusions or exemptions
with some of the stuff that he said this morning.
But yeah, no, it seems we'll see if this holds up.
The market is believing that this isn't holding up.
We did hear Iran come out with the other side
and say they agreed to this,
that there's a two-way thing here.
I think from their perspective,
they want to show like, hey, the straight opens on us.
They're trying to like, on them,
they're trying to show the power there.
But nevertheless, there's this Marine Traffic X account.
Let me pull it up. that if you've seen a
lot of people like the little videos it's going to be a lot from this website so um it does seem
like there's a little bit more traffic going through not an aggressive amount it's not like
open season but um a little bit more traffic it's better it's better there's actually a couple of
ships have these all been updated no a lot of these ones haven't but yeah it seems like we're gonna get a number that's the largest
oh i just got a notification that ibit is up five percent in the pre-market so
crypto is moving you five percent shout out to that um yeah bitcoin is getting a bounce
with the market back up to 72 and a half thousand on bitcoin this morning so
looking all right there um just to run through some of the numbers i mean nq mnq is up 3.5
overnight which is just ridiculous es 2.6 uh rty three and a half as well gold is up three percent
silver's up 7.6 hello and then you oil, of course, just getting crushed down 18%.
That's really bad.
Love it, though.
That's good for the market.
We like that.
And then as for some individuals that are obviously going to be moving, I mean, most of the watch list is moving pretty big.
I see Oklo up 9.5%, ASML 8.8%, Oscar's up 8.3%.
What's UNH up?
Are all the healthcare names just cooking?
Eh, not really.
UNH is up a percent.
It's all right.
SNDK up another 9% today.
Just huge, huge gains.la up five percent uh circle
seven points so you love to see it just this whole watch list is lighting up green
we absolutely love it are there any more uh any other stories evan that were coming out this
morning or uh anything you saw yeah worth mentioning uh one or two things i'm about to post a little doordash and google owned wing expanded partnership basically wing is a
drone delivery uh and they drive and deliver restaurants but it's really small if you're
if any of you guys live near the tanger outlets locust grove in atlanta georgia you might be able
to get some stuff delivered to you by drone delivery. There you go.
Delta Airlines reported earnings this morning. It's hard to tell how the stock would have moved because all the airlines are up, but EPS is a beat. Revenue is a beat. Unity Software and
Meta Platforms announced a little expanded partnership in the virtual reality space.
There was a story last night. Their perplexity is now at a $450 million annual
reoccurring revenue run rate. That is up from 300 million ARR run rate as of the start of the year,
or less than 300 million. So perplexity, I know we saw the anthropic numbers go from 9 billion up to
30 billion in ARR, which is quite impressive, obviously. But perplexity going from $300 million up to $450 million.
Cathie Wood and RK, they bought a good amount of Robinhood shares yesterday
and a couple Tesla shares as well, so we'll see.
I don't know. We'll see if anyone cares about that.
Coinbase is reportedly planning to launch equity trading and payments in Australia
after receiving a financial services license.
So that is a lot of the headlines.
Mostly from this morning, there wasn't an aggressive amount.
People were kind of staying away from making too much.
But yeah, those are some of the headlines that I saw.
Love it.
Thank you for that, sir.
What do we have to watch out for today?
In terms of economic data?
Yeah, I see we got Fed Speaker at 105.
We have FOMC Minutes, if anyone actually cares about those ones,
at 2 p.m. Eastern today.
Yeah, we do have FOMC Media Minutes.
Usually a nothing burger.
So I'm not going to expect too much, but maybe we
see a little bit of volatility there during that time. Definitely possible.
It looks like, yeah, we have Feds Daily speaking at about 1 p.m. Eastern, like 1.05.
So we'll see what happens there. But yeah, not too much economic data for today.
Looks like tomorrow we have more with GDP and PC price index coming in,
unemployment claims. And then Friday we have CPI, big CPI Friday. So I feel like that's when
things are going to be a little crazier, especially when I look at this market after last night and we ripped,
I mean, how many, how many points did we actually rip?
Jordan said like 10 times yesterday.
Damn.
Now this means he's not going to trade tomorrow.
Yeah, this guy said about 35 times last night he's not going to trade.
Did you take any trades last night?
No, absolutely not.
Did the clear edge take any trades?
I probably, I can definitely look.
Although I probably should have turned it off for all that
because it can get a little too crazy with the automation stuff,
trying to trade that type of stuff, to be honest.
It looks like it took a few trades, not even last night, but just this morning in the pre-market.
And it took one loser, and then it's in another trade right now.
Interesting.
I mean mean my portfolio
is at the
I was
I don't know about your portfolio
mine is at
my long term one
is at least at the
the high of the pre-market
and overnight
we like that
I will also say
I like that
we like that
I pinned it up in the nest above
a little
wolf trading announcement
we got for anyone who uses my funded futures for any of you prop firms out there code wolf
now works up there tweet pinned up in the nest above but yeah we're not telling you to use prop
firms or not i know jordan you swear by them i i honestly don't understand the model as much as
other people do but um, yeah, for anyone who
uses MyFundedFutures, CodeWolf will get you
the best discount they have there now.
Yes, sir.
Yeah, like you were saying, though,
when I look at a market that's
900 points overnight,
I don't run
to try and trade it as much as
you might think I would,
or people do, you know what I mean?
Most traders do.
I would say the only possible thing I could look for this morning, which I don't even know if I'd take it because I'm not trusting the environment,
is we're sweeping this previous four-hour high right now.
Maybe we open up, market opens, kind of similar as yesterday, although I don't have as much confidence in this happening today as I did yesterday. Like,
yesterday, I freaking gave everybody the sauce. I called the market perfectly. Like,
I don't – like, that was freaking beautiful. I absolutely love that. But this morning,
I don't have that confidence. But I could see a similar thing happening where we just pump to London High, take out London High. And then, I mean, I would like to see this market
retest one of these four hour gaps that we made overnight. But if we're just crazy, stupid,
bullish and headlines are coming out and it might not matter. Like it might, we might not even need
to retest those London lows and we can just fricking run. But that's the only possible
thing I can really look for is like, okay, maybe uh catch a short to one and low but i just don't even know if i'd try it
given the environment we'll see
but yeah i don't i don't run with excitement to trade a market that just moved 900 points
overnight up or down it It's really not ideal.
As much as that was good for the market,
that sucks honestly for the intraday because it's like,
okay, now what do we probably expect?
We probably expect the market to maybe,
I mean we just expanded a massive amount.
Maybe it does get further expansion,
but I'm not expecting that initially.
I can't.
We just expanded 900 points in one direction. So I look at this going, we're awaiting big data on Friday, CPI data.
This shit could get choppy.
Gross.
But maybe I'm wrong.
I hope I'm wrong.
I've just seen this movie before.
I've just seen this movie before.
But, we'll see.
And all the crypto boys out there looking good.
Looking alright.
72 and a half.
I see my boy Cam in the audience.
Feel free to pop up if she wants to, brother.
Getting a nice bounce.
I mean, what can you say?
It's a nice bump up.
Monthly candle, definitely starting to look better.
You have previous month highs, 76.02s.
I think we eventually go at some point, maybe it is this time,
and we go and retest those previous month highs of February.
We've never seen those February highs since we made them.
And we have monthly bearish order flow there.
And I want to see us pop into that.
And if we're going to go lower on Bitcoin, we should respect that area.
If not, we can run through that and things could get more bullish back to $100,000 in my opinion.
But we'll see what actually happens at that 79 area if we get there.
That would be a big spot I'm watching if we end up popping.
So how far is QQQ off all-time high now?
That's what I want to know.
My guess is 9%.
I haven't even looked.
It's 4.4% off the highs at the price in pre-market right now.
SPY is 3%, just over 3% off the highs.
What was that?
From down 14% from highs.
Things can change very quickly, can't they?
Wow.
It's disgusting.
Processing human.
Hello, Charlie.
I'm not seeing anything too crazy.
Broadcom is repeating its Apple Playbook.
I don't really know what's going on there.
Oh, gosh, is that it for it now?
Is it just done after all that?
18% down. Oh, darkness, my old friend.
What was the answer for how far QQQ is off its highs?
4.4%.
Spy was 3% off its highs.
No way.
You're telling me QQQ is 4% off its all-time highs, right?
Yeah, in pre-market.
From its pre-market price.
That's crazy.
Shit changes quick, man.
It's so quick. And we've seen it before. That's why I Shit changes quick, man. It's so quick.
And we've seen it before.
That's why I made the tweet.
I don't know if I have it pinned on my profile anymore.
No, I don't.
I switched it out for another one.
But if you scroll back on my personal timeline, you'll see – I'm trying to find it.
You'll see a tweet where I'm like, during these big corrections in the market,
you'll hear people that come up with some sort of reason that it's different this time.
And I was basically saying, I want you to know that that is not true and has never been true.
You look at the market since the start of the stock market, and it's never been true.
Every time somebody said that, it is just run the opposite direction and it's never been true every time somebody said that it is
just run the opposite direction that's what i say so um it's just it's beautiful to see
the movie play out again like we have seen this movie a dozen times over and every time the market
gets some sort of dip like people are going to come up with some sort of reason that all hell's going to break loose
and Spy's
going to zero. It's just
ridiculous. And it's like, guys,
this market has been designed to go up
since the start
of it. And until that
actually changes, maybe one day it does,
but it hasn't yet. And until it does,
we're going to keep playing that way, right?
It's just like... it's very interesting.
And since I've been in this mindset, it's very interesting to see the masses
and the ideas that come out of social media.
It's just, it's wild.
That's why you just gotta stack cash when things are good. And when things are bad,
you buy up these markets as much as possible, man.
It's crazy. Look at what we finally got to the area where it's like, you
started hearing people say like, this is a bear market, all this and like, oh, we freaking,
this is like actual correction territory, you know what I mean?
Those are the signals.
That's crazy.
So QQQ...
And what is QQQ?
5% off?
Mm-hmm.
Still got some work to do.
But it's just like, that's how quick things change.
It's wild.
Especially when we're dealing with
problems that are man-made
that have affected the market.
It's the same thing with tariffs.
Same thing with these wars.
It's all the same.
All it takes is
one freaking tweet,
one night of news,
one anything like that, man.
One catalyst.
And it's all over markets back like
but we'll see how this uh how this plays out and continues
feels like a circus i mean that's what it is. This has been an absolute circus.
Are you kidding me?
And that's why we have to see through all the blurriness, right?
All the noise.
That's why you guys hear me all the time.
I'm like, I don't. As much as we read off news and are interested to hear what's happening next,
it's like none of this really ends up mattering.
That's why you don't let it affect you too much.
You take the opportunities when they're given, right?
given, right? There's always going to be a catalyst that drops us down at some point.
There's always going to be a catalyst that drops us down at some point.
Those are beautiful times to stack up.
Now I'm really curious. It's so early in the month, but I'm so curious to see how this monthly candle closes now.
And some of your, like, on Q's and Spy.
Because it completely changed from what it was looking like now.
What's VIX at?
I imagine, the... Ah!
Money.
We're still at 20.
It's not too bad. I'll take that.
20's fine with me.
I might have to go a little heavier in positions.
Actually, I don't know.
Will I?
Yeah, definitely.
I can see it.
The best performing tickers on my watch list right now
include the 2X Robinhood of 18%,
HOG, BMNU and BMNG,
the 2X BMNRs,
CoreWeave, CRWG.
But outside of that,
we have Carnival,
American Airlines,
and Delta as the top three.
Robin Hood's fourth.
Worst performing one for me,
Exxon Mobil down six on here,
Lockheed Martin down two,
Verizon down one.
That's really it.
Everything else is green.
I'm joining something
that I'm selling here.
Somebody posted in the comments
saying maybe this is what
Trump meant yesterday
and it's like a photo
the Bears just to eat yeah a whole civilization of bears will die tonight do that is what he
was talking about okay see down below I just gave by the way as you guys are dropping comments in
that spaces chat the purple nine in the bottom right of your screen give the post a like as well
helps with the algorithm get more people in here we're
testing it out so when you guys get a lot of comments as well give the post
a like our goal is at least 50 a day so you did that we'll stop asking about it
good morning spaces crew good good morning Casey morning good morning how
you doing I'm doing very well
i'm doing well me and jordan both had monsters this morning i don't know if you can tell we're
freaking ready dude let's go baby let's go i am not trading today oh that's such a lie
we're on the same page that's such a lie he's gonna trade to trade. I would bet. I bet someone would money. So here's the thing.
Here's the thing.
Here's the thing.
When Casey says that he's lying, when I said – I might be lying, but we'll see.
Like I – so the only thing I plan on doing for a new trade is I'm probably going to sell SPX call credit spreads within the first 30 minutes to an hour.
Probably $100 out of the money.
That's about it.
But when I tell you that I'm locking in $20 thousand dollars when this market opens up and i'm done that's
what i'm doing holy really dude swings cooking so the spx the 6700 call for uh today expiration
i bought for 960 is worth about 10 200 right now um it's up like 900 something percent my futures accounts i have
one open position right now it was it's still long i forgot about it from 25 uh 15 so it's up 200
and something point right now on mnq i have this account still going it's up 5600 the other one's
up five grand the other one's up 1500 the other one's up a thousand casey just okay oh my and dude
this is so and that is this is this gotta be this is my my largest trading day of all time is about
it's about here around 20 000 um let's go baby in a single in a single trading day yeah about 20 000 but that was on
crypto so it doesn't really count it was on dogecoin oh yeah you'll find that my i think my
highest for options is i think 13 13 000 a day on apple um that was like a that was a 900 and like something percent trade over the weekend but
yeah and this i that so this pnl mainly on the futures as well that was missing like 80 of the
move like yesterday obviously like some of those longs i didn't get in until when it broke over 25k
i mean it ripped from like 600 points below but yeah wild
all right well now we got two minutes till this market opens
i'd like to see us pump to the london high We've got two minutes till this market opens.
I'd like to see us pump to that London high.
Pump it to London.
Or what happens if that doesn't happen here if we don't end up taking london high and we just drop i guess london low i expect deep down i'm
worried we're gonna drop i was thinking last time i was like are we but am i about to open up uh
wake up tomorrow and we're just about to be fat red? We'll see.
Could be.
So far, though, it's worked.
I keep getting notifications about stuff being up 5%. Watch us just come back in 900 points
right back to where we started, bro.
That would be disgusting.
See Maple down below?
You never know.
Maybe they do everybody dirty like that.
Who knows?
Bullish Bear said,
keep in mind 4% rule for on props.
What does that mean?
4% rule for on props.
Oh, some props may shut trading down if we're over four percent i forget what the exact rule
is though to be honest because it hasn't happened in so long um i think i'm about
on the edge of being right there yo good morning guys morning mapes good morning maple good morning
maple uh nq i see it ranging between london orb high 190 to uh 230 kind of sellers ask
a lot of excitement last night tons of money made i i maybe we see a bit of range today
possibly some profit taking um that's what i expect is i would yeah for the
listeners i would definitely just let the market settle a little bit i don't know that i'll be
doing much today but we'll see pump and take out london yep there we go range
there we go india and china began ordering immediate shipments of iranian crude after the announcement two weeks ceasefire agreement between iran and the u.s
make you short bill breaker oh he's ripping it covered half there 15 points
Ripping it.
Covered half there, 15 points.
Let's see.
I closed my SPX at $9,500.
We're at support, though.
I want to maybe cover another quarter and then trail stop
markets have hit the opening bell now dow jones industrial average of 1300
covered another quarter mnq skull following the
temporary ceasefire breaking Stop breaking. US and Iran yesterday.
Dow Jones is knocking on 48,000.
S&P 500 up 170 points near 6787.
And NASDAQ tech index up over 750 points at 22,775.
Dumpy, dumpy.
London lows, what I'm looking at 134.25.
They did not take out the high.
Interesting.
Good range here.
Looking at crude oil WTI futures for May settlement, still down from more stress highs, but trading above $92 a barrel.
We possibly see London or below, but I don't want to get too excited on the short. Looking at crude oil WTI futures for May settlement.
About to hit London low.
Let's go.
Beautiful names, right?
In the right morning.
Yep.
Yeah, that range, man.
London low is also a previous four- hour candle lows on the futures. Something
I'm keeping an eye on. Maybe we need to go to the next four hour candle lows. I can see
that at a 25,080 area, 90 area. I just don't know that I have the confidence to really execute in this right now.
To be completely honest.
See if I'm really offered anything that looks good.
Seems like we really want to take out that one and load it beyond ES.
No, still waiting, I use.
I need to mark that. Short three-minute CBC, MNQ.
Casey's just over there spamming the sell button on everything that he's in.
Just spamming it.
15-point gain, covered half.
Gain covered half.
There's London on NQ, still waiting for it on ES.
Top units, previous four-hour lows.
Sunwatch. Oh, sudden launch.
Slight bounce from that London low.
Is there any other...
Could see us drop to 25,100.
Ripping it off that though. uh short again three minute cvc i was gonna say i feel like this is like
perfect maple stack setup right here
dude it's clenching man scary down here i know it is a little wild but small size protects you
yep i'm sure what yeah it's not bad i'm like even though we just went down london or here
it's like this is the first bounce with no real structure made
i like and i can see this coming right back in.
Don't hate it.
Short weight you on that bounce.
Ran into 170.
Yeah.
Looks decent.
Go take out the low that we just made in London,
that intermediate low.
And here you go.
Do it. US sectors are broadly higher to kick off Wednesday.
However, the energy sector is backsliding steeply following the US I ran troops Damn, pop it a little far on this little thing.
Still think you get slapped here though. Not even in it. airline stocks are ripping as well today two minute nine just rejected there at 180
so far
traffic Traffic. Traffic.
There we go. do we dab in around here i think not that any of you traders should be using it but robinhood i
think is having problems right now is it you might be back now there's definitely a lot of
people that are trading options on that, though, in the audience.
Yo, last time Robinhood stopped working, Markit, don't.
That's what I need right now.
Let's do it.
Here we go.
Take out that intermediate low. Let's do it.
20-point gain, covered half, MNQ, baby.
That intermediate low got taken. Got taken. Beautiful. Do it. 20 point gain, covered half, M&Q baby.
Intermediate low got taken.
Got taken.
Beautiful.
I want more.
Careful, we sweep a London.
Might hold this.
Initially.
I trim now vwap target i don't know that lines up bill breaker feels a little crazy down here maybe
they get a 10 minute green but i need like excitement so traders chase the vwap break
and then uh that's where buyers will pick it up.
But it depends on this London Orb 142.
Mm-hmm. back down let's go baby bill breaker at twenty five thousand one hundred but
trail your stock you should be up about 30 points here There we go nice trade maple
iran is considering strikes against israel that's how we do it baby that's how we do it baby
go to bwop we already won this one, though. There's no losing.
I scaled another quarter out there, MNQ.
So the ceasefire did include Lebanon,
but Iran is considering strikes against Israel amid its violation of temporary ceasefire
because they violated it last night.
What the hell is going on?
IRGC warns any foreign aircraft entry breaches the ceasefire. Okay.
Okay.
To the downside.
Wow.
I just realized I still have SQQQ.
Oh, yes.
I got that last night. Bill Broken, Scaling Trail.
There we go, still going.
Yo, you know how the wolf pack rides?
Yes, sir.
You already know.
Oh, big bounce there.
30 points. Hello everyone. I want to see what happens at these next four hours.
Drain it.
Maple, are you still short?
Yes, sir.
All the way from 156.
Yeah, I got there.
162, but I did close out at like 115.
Yeah, I just got quarter position left.
Love it.
I am going to...
I think we see a VWop sweep though possibly like i think we break
under vwop like 70 60s and then buyers pick it up now not just immediately but
i think the fun's gonna end soon i had a 750 sqqq i just closed 600 of it so i'm riding with 150 now
600 of it so i'm riding with 150 now
i didn't want to go too crazy on the futures last night so i got sqqq as well Ooh, that could be a reversal candle there in the two minute, at least for a bounce.
By the way, again, IWM, strongest index.
Market was dropping that whole time.
Yes, IWM dropped, but it was holding for the last 15, 20 minutes.
Well, I guess you could say it was dropped from the pre-market,
and it was holding while NQ and Spy were dropping.
So do watch IWM for being the strongest here.
Interesting. Interessante. I think I'm sitting out. Nothing at 10 o'clock.
We just have meeting minutes later.
Saudi Arabia said we intercepted nine drones over the past few hours.
Iran's foreign minister discussed ceasefire breaches in Iran and Lebanon and phone call with the Pakistan Army commander.
Iran's IRGC has intercepted a foreign drone in its airspace and is reminding everyone that intercept that violating its airspace constitutes a breach of the ceasefire agreement.
According to report, it is already communicating with Pakistan regarding ceasefire violations. little poppy little poppy trail stop hitting profit MNQ. Heard, heard. Hello everyone. I'm going to go to the next episode. I'm going to go to the next episode.
I'm going to go to the next episode.
I'm going to go to the next episode.
I'm going to go to the next episode.
I'm going to go to the next episode.
I'm going to go to the next episode.
I'm going to go to the next episode.
I'm going to go to the next episode.
I'm going to go to the next episode.
I'm going to go to the next episode.
I'm going to go to the next episode. I'm going to go to the next episode. Looks like we're trying to hold it's about back down I make you short 10 minute green
I core of holdings hitting multi-year highs now testing testing $55 per share, up to 13% on the day.
That's I-Corps Holdings, ICHR, India, Charlie, Hilo, Romeo.
Ceasefire calms market, but Trump threatens 50% new tariff on arms suppliers to Iran.
Crude oil still down 18%. and walk whooped Thank you. I'm not taking that.
12 points, covered half.
12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. 12 points. Okay. Do you want to shrink? Where is it? gold trying to hold that bounce
here we go dude here we go 30 oh my god 40 point gain covered&Q
Cover down to the runners
There is VWAP
Told you guys we'd hit it
What do you mean?
I'm fine
As long as we don't give back most of this day
Then we're good
Give back a little give back most of this day. I think we're good.
Give back a little,
end at the high of day.
I can dig it.
Coming up at 10.30,
food and gasoline inventories.
FOMC minutes today too. The FOMC meeting minutes at 2 and at 235 Feds Waller will be speaking.
I think when I was talking, he said there was a 10-year auction today.
There was a 3-year, a 10-year, and a 30-year this week.
Iran's foreign minister discusses ceasefire breaches in Iran and Lebanon and phone call
with Pakistan Army Commander. Disgusting. Well now I have 25,000,006 which is Asia low.
It's my next real big spot on this bigger timeframe.
We also have an hourly gap there.
You can see us just continue to drill to there. You could see us just continue to drill to there.
No touch for me. I don't know. I know. I know. I know. I know.
I know.
I know.
I know.
I know.
I know.
I know.
I know.
I know.
I know.
I know.
I know.
I know.
I know.
I know.
I know.
I know.
I know.
I know.
I know.
I know. I know. I know. I know. I know. Because it wasn't a good setup anyway.
Oscar Health.
Stock is jumping after CEO buys $11.92 million in shares.
Hell yeah it is Casey's just sitting on a
stack of money this morning
selling his spreads
oh you sold spreads already
I didn't yet I was gonna do call spreads
but honestly
the premiums were fucking ass.
Yeah.
I would have had to do, which it would have is only $60 out of the money.
And I could have collected like 50, 60 bucks, but that wasn't really worth it to me.
So I didn't take it.
Yeah, I could have did something too on NDX, but yeah, it just didn't make sense to me.
I could actually do one right now.
97%, it's 400 points out of the money. Didn't make sense to me. I could actually do one right now. 97%
it's 400 points
out of the money.
So that would be another
it would be a 4% day
and I could get $1.17.
I may actually do that.
I was thinking about doing one
for tomorrow or Friday.
I was looking at selling 6,900s for Friday on SPX.
They were just sitting around $100 on the premiums.
They're at $85 right now.
Can I ask you a question, Max?
Yes, sir.
I don't want a fake news answer.
I want the real answer.
Do you use Vanklish to sell options at all?
Is it something you're actively still doing?
I did.
I haven't been active on it in the past, like, honestly, month, just about.
I'm just running so many accounts
with it.
With my own trading right now.
I haven't really been active
on it. So no.
But yes I have and I do like it.
No I'm just asking if you actually
use it. If it was worth
the money it would be using it as some of the other accounts.
I cut you off, Casey.
Oh, no, you're good.
I don't even remember what I was talking about.
He's got money on his mind.
So Vanquish makes a little more sense to me than the other ones because I obviously am not a future straighter,
so there's like multiple learning curves happening at once.
Yeah, it's nice.
By the way, Oscar, speaking of that news,
I had $13 calls for June.
I just closed them for 140%.
Oh, new Israeli airstrike hit Al-Samaia.
Al-Samaia?
I don't know., entire southern Lebanon.
Iran evaluating reply to Israel's ceasefire violations.
Markets come back in 181 points after ripping 900.
That's so stupid.
They're just draining premiums now.
I can't even get a script.
Yeah.
I thought last night everyone was best friends.
Right?
Literally last night everyone was best friends.
They agreed to the ceasefire.
Literally overnight, they violate the ceasefire and lebanon israel's like ah i knew i saw that headline last night like lebanon was included in the ceasefire and i'm like interesting okay
and then of course they just slam on it this morning. I don't know.
I made a post yesterday
and I don't give a shit
what the news says at this
point because, yeah,
it affects the market in some direction
it's all
uncertain. It's all noise.
It's all extra shit. So if it's
a catalyst and it moves in your favor while you're in a trade, then, hey, take it.
But your trade shouldn't be based off of that.
Your trade should have been the same setup whether we were in this war and had news coming in or not.
You shouldn't be executing the trades like normal.
And for the last two weeks for me that's
what i've been doing and i'm telling you right now it's one of the best things you can do is just
just let them keep doing and saying all the bullshit that they're doing but
just keep trading your same setups like normal with or without headlines
yeah fully agree it's the best thing you can do right now.
And size down.
Yes, yes.
Yes.
Size down and widen your stop.
Yep.
100%.
There's popping here.
How we doing reese far bro i swung some spy zero day calls and some microsoft um 1500 percent
another 700 dude those spx's that we had going into the clothes overnight wow i'm up 14 now i so the 6700 uh for today expiration that we bought yesterday
going into the close i mean they went like five seven hundred bucks and obviously i'd trim some
out for profits but i swung that one contract from 960 uh they were 10 10 grand this morning
oh hell yeah dude and insane i don't i don't know rizzo had any spx with us overnight but
i know we were all looking at that shorting overnight oh jesus christ
you know he he said that during power hour he said that he was like i'm i'm gonna swing short
overnight and i was like what the fuck did you just short overnight. And I was like, what the fuck did you just say, Rizzo?
I was like, you're the one person who I thought would be like, let's long this thing overnight.
Permable, right?
Watch the 10-minute green here.
Flipping red.
We got 30 orb set, so any push under orb is a great area to cover.
you had to cover.
Dude, if they
undo the
ceasefire because they're still bombing,
oh, man.
Oh, man.
You are going to see
a 4% drop.
I don't personally, unless obviously something, again, crazy happens,
catalyst, I don't think we see a big move in the market today. I think if we do see anything,
it's more neutral to slow bleed,
but it's going to be more scalpy than constructive.
Just, I think whenever we see these big moves overnight,
a lot of people just want to see a huge reversal the next day.
It usually doesn't happen.
Trump's making comments to PBS.
he's on PBS Kids?
He's on PBS Kids?
I believe it is, Jolene.
I think it is,
Jolene.
INHD shares
at about 80% now
on that
press release now.
All right,
we're back.
I think we can see
a slow fade on Q's,
maybe down to 600,
but...
I got my block
of parmesan cheese.
I'm ready.
I think in Q,
like,
if they don't, buyers don't claim VWAP here, it's going to be a 25k retest.
Yeah.
I mean, you gotta think, who's buying up here today after one of the biggest gap-ups so far in the overnight session in 2026 so far?
Yeah.
Now, along with what just happened this morning
with Israel kind of fucking up this whole ceasefire, right?
Like, who's thinking about buying up here now
after that happened and then with, you know, the violation?
It's, I don't know.
FOMO traders.
Dude, my grandma, my second removed uncle
texting me out of the blue on this gap up.
It's like, I don't think they're buying to step in and take it higher.
I think they could try to hold or pin price action.
That's, for me, it's up here.
It's neutral to slow fade, I think.
A circuit breaker of 96%, anything that I'm not going to tell.
Delta?
Hezbollah and Lebanon will get taken care of, too.
Hezbollah and Lebanon will get taken care of, too, Trump said to PBS.
Yeah.
Hood's selling, pretty decent right here.
Volume's not, like, crazy today so far.
I mean, it's decent, butd selling we have fomc minutes
today right mm-hmm yeah i mean that's going to be a nothing burger but yeah nvidia new low of day
amd new lows
apple's pushing up
that's where the safe money goes Apple's pushing up.
That's where the safe money goes.
Amazon.
God, I can't believe your airlines and cruise lines.
CCL's up like 14%. Google looks like it wants to fade a little bit more.
Meta just made a new low of day.
DAL, the airline CEO on your conference call said over the last month,
cash sales, which are the clearest indicator, demand are up double digits.
Demand strength is across the current geographies and products.
Delta always gives me snacks.
Delta?
And the flight attendants
are always so nice.
My buddy's a flight attendant
at Delta.
Oh, really?
Yeah.
They're always so awesome, man.
Like, I've definitely had, like,
a few issues in terms of just,
like, layovers and getting stuck
on, like, in, like, an airport
or something, but, like... I but like I do or not their issue yeah some Google 312.5
puts are coming in for Friday expiration SGC are right there. Look, short that 10-minute green.
There we go.
Just like that.
Scaling trail, guys.
That's an orb sweep.
Well played, sir.
Does anybody else ever just grab a block of Parmesan
and snack or what?
Or my nuts?
No, you psychopath. i'll be honest i love
cheese though yeah i love cheese yeah you want to hear something crazy listen to this one let me
hear never heard this one before one of my friends snacks on breadcrumbs.
Really?
Like the croutons?
No, no, no.
He'll get a legit spoon.
The breadcrumbs that are all crushed up.
Yes.
Disgusting fuck.
No, he's a disgusting fuck.
Man's like a termite.
He's eating dust.
Dude, I don't know
how he gets enjoyment out of that one.
He's eating dust.
What?
Does he buy the bread and make the crumbs?
He doesn't even make it? Fuck!
Damn.
Oh my gosh.
I bet he listens to Queen on repeat
just another one bites the dust
fucking disgusting
fucking that's weird
every once in a while I'll eat a crouton or two
yeah yeah
I'm not a crouton guy
I love a good crouton
it is aggressive to just have breadcrumbs, though.
Croutons are fire.
That's funny.
What else we got?
Hitting the wire.
Still huffing around the BWOP.
Yeah, pre-market low right there on QQQ.
There's a small gap.
I mean, Spy just filled it.
Qs missed it by a penny.
Might want a long hair.
Yeah.
Right there on 90.
NVIDIA still selling.
Another new low.
Hard, actually.
There you go, oh oh oh all right fat red give me my 100 points oh maybe not oh yes maybe yes oh
mama dude oh there's someone he's talking right he said he found the red navy saying Yes, maybe. Yes. Oh. Momo. Yeah.
He's talking, right?
Maybe saying Hormuz is still closed.
Well, that was another thing of the ceasefire that they were going to open it.
Well, yeah.
And the street is still closed.
But it's still delightful.
I was going to say Brunsnap. still a lighter Iran Navy message says
ship owners need to receive permission
from Iran to transit
or they will be targeted and destroyed
guys
we were all just friends yesterday like i know y'all were freaking
in a circle holding hands around the straight singing kumbaya and now you're over we need to
make an ai video of that yeah now they're playing red rover somebody somebody go put that prompt into ai and make it a video like all the world
leaders like iran world like iran leader um trump like all the boys just like dancing around the
straight hormones singing kubaya we're gonna get a bounce here viral is that financial advice
the balance yes
no The balance? Yes. No. Yes. No.
So if you're in Reed index, is that 29 now?
Which is fear.
Fear? Which is fear. Fear.
Hmm.
Several vessels in the Gulf received messages claiming to be from the Iranian Navy saying Hormuz is still closed.
Ship owners need to receive permission
from Iran to transit or they will be...
Oh yeah, you said that. We got that one.
Alright, we're going red aren't we
kitty faces what the fuck
no no no
if we went red dude that's
fucked up
oh there's no way there's no way the market
would go red today
back down 800 points
only way it goes red is if
they literally pulled all this back.
Yeah, it's just...
I don't feel it's got to happen.
Strange enough, I think even if
Trump came out and said,
you know what, everything we talked about yesterday,
that shit's in the gutter.
It's back on, baby.
I think even if that came out i don't even
think the market would reverse the entire move that i just had to the upside from now that was
too much we went too far too fast to be able to do that so quickly in my opinion yeah i mean
always happy for the market to tell me i'm wrong and surprise me, but yeah, that's just, that was crazy. I'm going to go ahead and get some more. Wow.
Things are a little slow.
Wow, we really got slow.
Look at this.
Yeah, no, there is no movement right now.
Everybody will laugh.
Nada. Nada. I have a sad feeling that... We should get a bounce here, though. Nada. Nada.
I have a sad feeling that...
We should get a bounce here, though. We really should.
The rest of the whole day.
A lot of lower wicks there,
but no continuation.
They're probably just going to need to
grab some buyers if they want to take it lower.
Okay.
You want to know what's funny, Jordan?
What?
My friend, I just checked my Snapchats
an hour ago.
My friend literally
in his picture says
nice block of parm and he has a piece of cheese
in his mouth.
Dude, yes! My man!
I'm actually gonna take that and send it to you.
Hold on.
That's actually hilarious that you literally
said that.
It's a good source of protein, too.
I love cheese.
There's protein in Parmesan like that?
Yeah, dude.
Parmesan is hella protein, actually.
Jordan, check your phone in T-minus maybe 15 seconds.
Tesla, new low of day.
Tesla giving it back.
I need somebody to announce
that it launches
artificial intelligence initiative.
You should have got it.
We're stuck on this two minute nine.
Oh my gosh.
Look at him, literally
just a block of parm, bro.
Hell yeah.
He must have known what you were gonna say an hour later
that's exactly what i looked like five minutes ago
that's insane this guess what stock pumped overnight with the market and it's still pumping up almost even, like, again, double.
Frickin' Intel.
INTC ripped with the market overnight and it just ripped again. Oh, yeah, that's new 26 highs right there.
And 52-week highs.
I mean, we're breaking. 52 weeks. Highs.
I mean, we're breaking.
We're going back to 2021 highs right now on INTC. Did Missy Elliott say long that thing?
Or is it only on the daily?
I think I need to have her do the weekly too.
Let me see.
No, she's on.
It has it for the weekly.
Wall Street Journal headline.
Israel was informed late about ceasefire deal.
I wasn't happy.
Let me see. When did it say bye? Monday? So it would have been
somewhere in here i think oh they're starting to try to get above the two minute nine here Okay. I INHD, hold it again at the highest of L9.
Kilti-R is ready for Missy Elliott.
Let me see.
What direction?
Look at Apple, Amazon, Google.
They're all curling up.
AMD.
We should get a pop here.
Iran's Tasman News Agency citing unnamed source says Iran
will withdraw from ceasefire agreement
if attack on Lebanon continues.
Uh-oh.
Oh, yay.
But it reversed, hey?
We're gonna reverse it
Oh, it's not that the mark is not like in that one
Stevie in the chat spaces chat post on the games love to see it 190% on intc. That's been it's been a great name
to trade lately
Love to see the games if you guys are in the chat making some money today, post your gains.
We'd love to see how the crew's doing.
So I'm seeing a couple of ships that have passed through the strait this morning,
and a couple people are talking about it.
I feel like people don't understand that there's 2,100 ships stuck inside the strait.
Yeah, like there's definitely ships going through, but not nearly at the rate
that it was previously.
No, I mean, yeah, like, like, I mean, but I'm saying is like, 10 ships isn't going to
do anything.
Yeah, you know, yeah, I agree.
There's 20,000 people stuck on boats inside of that area right now not living a good life at the moment exactly
Let's see if we try and pump or not pump but like there's a lot of shady shit that happens
Under orb again good scales covers for shorts a lot of shady shit that happens. Under orb again, good scales, covers for shorts.
A lot of bribes.
I used to work in an anti-bribery company,
and a lot of the focus in corruption was trying to get ships that would jump up in line.
So they bribe the port officials to get their shipment ahead in line,
shipment
ahead in line.
Which, you know, in shipping terms,
I mean, that's days, if not weeks
of time
that you're saving.
Big deal.
I found out
something very cool yesterday.
What's that?
I've actually been in the straight of her moves on jet skis.
Oh, let's go.
Didn't even realize it.
Dude, that's so tight.
That is tight.
You want to go try it now?
I'm going to try it.
Want to see me do it again?
Yeah, yeah.
Want to see me do it again?
Now you're going to be playing fucking LeapFrog.
You try to take a jet ski out there.
Funny stories for another day, but it is very scratchy over there
thoughts on Marbell if you're long you're long if not you missed it
I'm going to keep short 10 minute green scout.
I'm just looking to flatten it if it turns red.
Passing new lows.
Palantir reversed the entire move overnight and is going down to previous day low
and trying to put in a reversal here on the five-minute.
Yeah, I can't do any trades here.
We're just shocking down here.
Palantir, 155 calls coming in.
Sizable sweep for May 1st.
Watch for
Poppy Poppy.
Oh my gosh, Reese.
Those swings.
Woo!
I mean, we still have individuals going up.
So, I'm looking like Long's is probably the way right now.
But who knows?
Iran's armed forces are identifying targets to respond to Wednesday's attacks by Israel against Lebanon,
stopping the war at all fronts, including Lebanon was part of the two-week ceasefire agreement with the U.S.
You know, if that news comes out, we literally could drop like 3% to 4%.
U.S. delegation led by VP Vance, an Iranian delegation led by Galibaf.
And Araki to arrive in Pakistan's Islamabad on Thursday.
INHD $1.32 now.
Indian number of hotel Delta.
Galibaf postbox.
Pakistan.
$1.37.
Pakistan PM Sharif urges all parties to exercise restraint and respect the ceasefire for two weeks.
Bro, we haven't even been able to go 24 hours.
What do you mean
you want two weeks what the hell are you guys talking about like
it's kind of vile your highest level of gamma on queues at 605 for spy at 675
i thought you were just gonna say this guy's high.
I mean that too.
Oil trying to rip back a little bit. I Get it.
Bet.
Reese, don't worry about that guy.
That's hilarious.
Fuck that guy That's hilarious Fuck that guy Ain't no thing but a chicken wing
Krim says I think Apple goes higher
I think I'm opening
Puts again
He said let me fade that I think I'm opening puts again.
So let me fade that.
Short green cover red.
See if they flip it on 10.
Can they do it again?
Cover to the runners. Bingo. Fat scalp right there. bingo
fat scalp right there
cover down the runners
short green cover red
time and time again
hey yo
punish Israel for a tax
against Hezbollah
in violation of a ceasefire
Iran says they're going to punish Israel.
They're going to punish them.
They're going to bust out the Wix of Chains.
Dude, Wix is up in that gap, by the way.
Microsoft kind of bear flagging at the low.
Dude, I was in these Microsoft swings since Monday,
and I just was averaging it.
Damn.
Yeah.
You love it.
You love to see it.
I know.
Got blessed. You'll love to see it. I know. God bless.
I opened the SPY ones right before close yesterday after I shut down all those SPX ones.
So your Vol D has been moving higher all morning.
Your Vol DQ has been moving higher all morning. Your Vol D Q has been moving higher all morning.
Your Tick has been above the zero line all morning.
And Vix has also been moving higher up all morning.
While Spying Qs have done a slow little fade down.
I'm going to tell you right now,
that means don't touch majority of this shit.
Yep.
Hence why I haven't taken anything.
Unless you can be a sniper quick in and out for a scalp,
I mean, don't.
Your normal, I say normal,
your normal technical analysis
looking at the internals and everything
I'd say a lot of that is not going to
help you today
to be honest with you
it's just the way price is delivering
it's a lot more difficult
to play off those things
and try and get these
crazy
crazy moves
you gotta be a little bit quicker, I feel like.
Palantir, if you took the calls.
There you go.
Trump said peace talks will start in Pakistan very soon.
We will have Feds Daily speaking at 105 Eastern. I'm down for the Jesus Tesla.
Coming up, Prude, a drop 1 million expected.
Gasolina drew up 1.4 million.
This led to drop 1.5 million.
Tesla gave the entire move back.
It is now where the market closed at yesterday.
Watch for the bounce down here.
Sweeping under 348 down to 346.64.
Kind of just somewhere in that 347 area.
Little bounce spot over extension on Tesla.
Could be a nice little scalp. you load a you load a look map's got like 153 orders down at 0.25 to 0.27.
It's funny because Asia Lowe's at 0.675,
and that's where I think this market's getting drawn to.
Well, wouldn't you know.
I like that.
Funny how that happens.
You know, I only used BookMap when I, to be frank,
didn't really know what the i was doing um
and i'm sure now like taking a look at it it would just like line up with so much that i see
and like using it in context with the way i trade would probably work very well 100 point gain mnq
initial position black it's teetering around that liquidity band have been stopped after israel
all the tankers passing through hormones have been stopped after uh oh boy started violating
so no mouse it's got an alert on silver but yeah i used to get on book map and see like a bunch of orders at one level and just be like
yeah you can't do that like you can't maybe but like you add an actual strategy with them be
aware of those bigger levels and i actually can work you know what i mean yeah i like to leverage
it while i'm already in trades for extra confluence of where to get out and where to place my stops.
And to see the cumulative volume delta flip, which there's other
tools he can do for that too.
Trump said J.D. Vance might not
attend the talks
in Iran or in Pakistan.
Just bring the meme of J.D. Vance.
Send him. Send him.
Send him.
Alright, Asia Low.
Come on and grab it.
ES holding up.
Much better.
I think we're still a ways from Asia Low on that.
Yeah.
67, 87, 75. 8775 All right, what are these 154 or so orders going to do down here?
We're going to test it.
Watch them pull it.
See how long that liquidity band has been there.
That's the true testament oh a long time since before market open it's another way you can look at book map is
like when you see these fat orders stack up like go to the left of it and see how
long that dark band has been there on the book map.
Yeah.
Because that'll get away from spoofing.
You'll see a lot of people that'll just throw like those 50 bands in there
and then just take them off.
And then you'll just see those little kind of dashes of red marks.
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
I also put like a large buy and sell order alert on there.
The Stephen Hawken voice, if you will.
Oh yeah, we love that.
30 or 35.
Can you make it a female voice?
Is that possible?
Ooh, let me go on mute and try to see.
You don't have to.
I'm just curious for myself.
I'm very curious now.
So hold on.
Stephanie Hawkins.
Hey.
Hey.
Can I get this please?
Alright. all right yo can you guys hear me yeah we got you we got you okay okay just checking gold dying
falling off a cliff. Oh, bye-bye. You just have to Let's see that 25k.
Yes, sir.
It's like those orders are holding it right there at 30.
They're still there, stacking a few more.
And then there's like another 68 and 32 down at 25k and 995.
So collectively, that's over 250 orders just south. Inching closer to Asia, though.
Not quite getting it yet.
Crude oil still popping down 15% now in the day
from down 18%, so popped up about three there. I'll try to small long on IWM.
I do plan to add, but if it obviously goes up, I will just close it for profit.
Got 4 April 10th, so I did get get some time so if we do drop a little bit
it'll be less data burn all that stuff Well, crew, if you're in the audience and you've been enjoying the spaces this morning, as always,
I wish you guys are liking the spaces. follow all the speakers up here as well make your timelines much better a lot of great content coming out from everybody
on here yeah and after you guys do that we should do ones and twos yeah i'm down put a one in the
chat maple you want to do it no you guys run it up all right no that's a maple thing let's see
yeah maple say it for us say it for all right man all right how'd you guys trade it up all right no that's a maple thing let's see yeah maple say it for us say it
for all right man all right how'd you guys trade today one's in the chat if you're green twos red
zero no trades or break even let us know reply to the space with how you traded today guys
i'll say one more time ones if you're green twos red zero no trades or break even let's go
i'm a zero i'm chilling i'm chilling but it's been a great week i'm happy to sit out
today yo that's a win bro nothing i really love people underestimate that the only thing i actually
kind of liked was the short that you took that we were talking about initially and i just again
the environment i was like you know what i don't need to do this and i i've had a great week so i'm
just chilling and i don't need to touch this.
That is respect. It's a great feeling. You love that. But I applaud all you guys killing it this morning. These environments can be tough. Much respect. Lots of ones and zeros.
We like to see that.
A ton of ones on a day like this, which I love to see.
It looks like a lot of people probably shorten.
Some twos out there.
All goody.
Crew's doing well.
Good on you guys. Has IB played out at all today yet?
Yeah, it did, didn't it?
Yeah, we technically took out IB low.
Right, actually, it was on that 1031 candle right as soon as it formed
oscar pulling back pretty good. Dang.
Still up 10%, but damn.
Same with ASML.
Basically downside all morning.
Oh, my Tesla got cooked too.
Oh my gosh.
Yeah, Tesla's taking a fucking... She was like, alright, you know?
Damn.
Man, if you took the calls down there off that zone, it's popping right now.
Looking good, you good?
I don't know where she started.
This shit is crazy, though.
At the peak this morning, do you know, we were only 3% off all-time highs on Spy
and 4.4% off all-time highs on KKKQ.
And we're still, like, not too far.
When we were down at the peak to the downside, like, 14%.
That's how quick shit changes.
Wow.
I don't know.
Some people told me we were in a bear market last week.
A lot of people told me that's the signals man those are the signals
basically like when they when everybody said like oh this is officially correction
like that was that was basically the low
i want to see closer 350 on tes Tesla. It'd be a nice little...
Of course, I haven't been around that long.
Okay, but just from what I've noticed,
every time it's a...
It seems very difficult for the stock market
to truly get into a bear market
when it is a man-made problem
and a catalyst that is provided by our president literally like it's very difficult
for the market to truly be in a bear market off of that because all it takes is one tweet
bank you're four percent three percent off all-time highs again and it's just like
until it's really earnings related and related to like what's actually going on like in technology and
everything happening there um until it's actually related to that and what's actually going on
inside of these companies versus fucking war headlines i don't think true bear market happens
like it was just because it's not everything is still stable really it's not, everything is still stable, really. It's just all these war headlines creating this uncertainty among people.
But nothing, like everything we've talked about is the war.
It's nothing with these actual companies, right, that we're looking at.
So that's another thing I think is like, true bear market does not happen when it's like this man-made catalyst.
Look at COVID.
Look at tariffs.
That shit came back so fast.
That was not a true bear
market.
Gotta have a true catalyst versus these
uncertainty headlines.
It's not going to
really be able to push price for a prolonged period
of time.
I personally will say and i'm
not speaking as someone who bought the dip last week or the week before i personally just watched
i didn't do anything um because obviously we don't know what's going to happen but that's fine yeah
some of the best dips to buy in the market in my experience is the dips that are unrelated to the
core business just like you're saying yep
yeah 100 like those have been the best steps to buy tariff flows
covid lows right like all those dips were juicy juicy right 08 was a little bit different there
right oh it was an actual problem um and financial crisis and so yeah like things
were heavier there it lasted a little while longer
coveted was what we came back in what was it 13 weeks or something
no it was less than that i'm pretty sure i think it was like seven weeks from that low made we were back
i'm gonna need a it's just i mean simple pattern recognition man like
scale and trail let's see 25k you're about to get asia
yes sir we're gonna give it all back good job dude no
crazy all right so i haven't had any losses for the last two and a half days. Tomorrow, I'm going to blow up, guys.
Tomorrow's the day.
Tomorrow's the day.
Go light.
Maybe one account at a time tomorrow.
But I'll use code wolf, baby.
Check them out, Lucid.
The flexes are sick.
Yeah, we like those.
Still some deals going on there right now as well.
Trade a five still cooking with deals.
It's like one of the best times to be a prop trader right now, actually.
I think 90% off at Apex still as well.
It's just, yeah.
Deals everywhere.
I think it's one of the best times to do a human right now.
Right.
50% off on Banklish, too, for the options traders.
We were talking about that earlier.
I agree, Jordan, but oil prices will absolutely affect earnings for at least half the market.
Sure, but right now, it's all war.
Like, oil's not being affected because of earnings. Oil's affected because of what's happening but you're right like yeah later down the line when
everything comes down i gotta take at the top of the hour and do some stuff ahead of that i will
be jumping in a live stream uh on youtube i think reese was on the Discord there.
Mark, I guess a pump. Watch IWM.
Still in my calls, down 2%. QQQ just hit the next little support zone that i have there
like two almost a penny it starts at 60388
that's still still holding decent off that low
i've seen a lot of ones in the chat.
That's awesome.
I know.
I'd love to see that on these days where I think it could be a little tougher for people.
It seems people are killing it.
We love that. Jim Cramer's bullish on Apple.
Yeah, short it. not sure if you guys heard but i'm bouncing off i got a phone call at the top of the hour and i'll
be on live stream on youtube with y'all afterwards so until then take it easy man we'll see you then
somebody said what about 2022 bear market well that was again like not that was like not some
warship right that was like inflation interest rates the fed was making all these moves right
like that was heavily affecting the market. Real things, right?
Versus not these problems that just are happening with tweets
or because of someone said something or because we attacked this, you know.
That was orderly.
That made sense.
Look at the stock market in 2003.
And you'll notice that
War is not exactly bearish
It's the Strait of Hormuz being closed
That's bearish
Yeah
In case if you're not aware, we invaded Iraq in 2003.
We as in the United States.
Speaking of Iraq,
raises my Basra medium crew premium.
Bust it.
Be careful down here for the listeners, okay?
This is a huge excitement, euphoric area.
Yeah.
Hard to get crazy short into these bigger time frame lows down here.
But, I mean, we could, of course, keep drilling.
But, yeah, for the audience, just be careful down here.
Not a bad spot to be shaving off some profits if you've been short from the morning.
Qatar Defense Ministry.
We were targeted on Wednesday by seven missiles and drones launched from Iran.
Pakistan's Minister of Planning and Development said Israel began this conflict and has started other conflicts.
I got a crazy stat.
What do we got?
Enlighten me.
What do you think a single share of spies sold for at the start of the Iraqi invasion
of 2003?
Oh, gosh.
A single share of spy.
What would be like?
We had to have been in the hundreds if not less, right?
You would have gotten it for $105.
Okay.
That's crazy. That was really not that long ago.
That's insane.
Yeah, that was the year after I was born.
Wow.
Wow.
According to Axios, they just said Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire agreement with Iran.
Make a decision.
Were they part of it or not?
I've seen a thousand times they were a part of it.
Now they're not a part of it.
And then they were in violation because Lebanon was getting hit.
But now they're not a part of the ceasefire agreement?
What are we doing?
What are we doing here, man?
Kuwait said fires broke out in some of these sites.
These attacks targeted several sites, including power stations, resulting in severe material damage to infrastructure facilities and generation units and fuel tanks. Vita Cocoa is a public company?
It is.
I love Vita Cocoa.
Ticker Cocoa.
COCO.
I didn't know they were public.
Kind of cooking Been doing alright
This stock rocks It's up 73% in a year!
I know!
What?
Isn't it cooking, dude?
Shout out!
I've never heard of this ticker either.
Dude, I'm long coconut water. Shit.
It's a $3 billion company.
Dude, I never knew that they were public.
That's awesome.
I'm keeping that on the radar, Luke.
I feel like I could get Casey to start trading that.
That's lit, man.
They ain't killing it.
Oh, their options are messed up.
Oh, are they?
Had to be something.
I mean, there's probably not.
I can't imagine there's a mass amount of people
that are waking up every morning and saying,
hey, let's go trade options on Coco.
I've seen Casey trades, nail a trade.
100-point gain, M&Q ladder.
I'm flat, baby.
200-point is back-to-back. I've seen him nail a nail a trade. 100-point gain, MNQ ladder. I'm flat, baby. 200-pointers back-to-back.
I've seen him nail a trade on Cracker Barrel.
Cracker Barrel.
That is true.
Well, the SPX call credit spread
that I want to take is not 85%,
it is but it is
what it is.
We're just doing the slow
bleed down, baby.
Again, I think we can
see 600 on queues.
I said that when we
were over 606,
we're halfway there.
I think we can
see that 100% spy. I think we can get closer to that 570 area.
At 2 p.m. the FOMC meeting minutes. Feds Waller speaking at 2.35 p.m.
It's halfway there.
it's halfway there
can i close my head a b on long?
oh yeah
every time i'm in the street
oh my god dude
what a fucking ten minute candle
Five-minute evening star reversal on Tesla. Sold off new lows.
All right, for the novice traders, the listeners, right?
If you've been trying to picket longs all day because you're like,
man, this sold off too far, right?
What's low can go lower. Please understand that.
10-minute candle by candle method was bearish all morning
why not short 10 minute green candles okay there's no confirmation of a reversal unless
there's a higher low or a base back above v walk
even from even from a probability standpoint we talked about it this morning. Like, if you're looking to do anything today to actively trade this,
I don't think there is really any good spots to look for longs.
Honestly, it was look for opportunities to short it.
Strike and I was not shut down.
Saudi oil pipeline damage said to be limited after drone strike. short it. Strike and I was not shut down. Saudi
oil pipeline damage said to be
limited after drone strike.
Saudi east and west pipeline
was not shut down after strike.
Saudi oil loadings
at Yonbu continue as normal on Wednesday.
Firefly Aerospace.
Shares are getting a pop because of
moon energy project with nvidia yeah yeah that's a cool story
um firefly is going to be developing onboard ai computing models and basically this is going to
showcase nvidia's advancement in space and that's kind of what nvidia is going to showcase NVIDIA's advancement in space. And that's kind of what NVIDIA is going to get out of this,
is the whole entire space computing.
It's going to help them win the race
or be a leader in the orbital computing space.
And Firefly is going to be having Ocula Luna on there,
which is an imaging service that they have.
And they will be taking pictures of the moon
simultaneously on the mission.
So both people are getting something good out of it.
We like that.
All good things.
All good things. Well, I actually just sold the bottom on iDVM.
I'm like that.
I am like that.
Token now at the low.
Hell yeah.
I got a question for my friends up here.
Will you guys be buying the SpaceX IPO?
Selling it.
I'm not buying it.
Sell it, buy the dip, sit on it for 10 years.
I mean, I watch the Rockets every time out of my backyard,
but it's overvalued, man.
You watch the Rockets every time out of your backyard?
Naples in the perfect spot for it. Dude, in Florida?
Yeah.
Yeah, I'm in Florida, too.
I make the drive.
We can see him here in North Carolina, too.
Well, now I'm in Puerto Rico.
I should go to see him here in North Carolina, too. Well, now I'm in Puerto Rico. I should go to see him.
Wow.
That's a lot there.
Walmart, new high.
Yeah, I don't think I'm a buyer.
I think it'll have an initial spike, but then, you know, this is what happens with most IPOs.
Initial spike, excitement, sell the news.
You trap those buyers that have bought a lot.
Let real buyers build a base much lower.
And those initial IPO chasers will hold.
And those buyers that build the base at the low will hold it to that,
those bag holders, and see if they want to add more.
Most people, especially hedge funds or larger firms
they'll double down on a position after it's red so that's just what i see most of the time we've
seen it with most other ipos it can take a while look at hood right usually there's like a two to
three year period it is the standard thing.
Yep.
You know, but what makes it very interesting for me, or at least what I'm watching for, you know,
this is definitely one of the trickier businesses to price.
I think we could all agree on that because there's a lot of unknown still. But, you know, they're making like roughly 16 billion revenue in 2025.
So that's kind of the main number we're going to have to go off of.
I don't know the multiple that SpaceDoc specifically should be IPO-ing at.
But now that they're throwing XAI inside of this, so it's SpaceX slash XAI IPO.
It's not just a SpaceX IPO.
A lot more people are less interested in this IPO because they have XAI, which is a massive money-eating project
in some people's eyes.
But I mean, they're basically going to IPO 94X earnings,
which is kind of wild.
I don't know if that's how it should be.
I mean, I don't know how to price XAI as well,
but I'm very interested to see how the market does.
Yeah.
It will be interesting, that's for sure.
A little bouncy bounce.
Costco's
ripping, breaking out of that
kind of weekly consolidation for that
reversal coming back up to the previous
2026 hubs
reminder i did sell the bottom of iw on there oh it's cold
holy shit i should have just added like i was going to stupid me stupid me. I hate when we have this huge gap like this because then my indicator that plots like all the previous session highs and lows are like nowhere to be found because we're so far away.
Now I have to zoom out even more.
We got big resistance on Qs between 610 and 613.50.
Which high of day, pre-market high, is 6107?
What's red?
R-E-D.
Energy.
Energy.
Energy's red.
The whole stack up, pretty much. Palantir Energy is red. The whole side cover, man.
Palantir is still red.
J&J is red.
Communications, AT&T, Verizon, red.
Can I get a mic check?
Yeah, I got you.
Thank you, sir.
Health Services, UNH is red.
Health is a little bit
your first RSI over extension on spy right there from minus 30. Terima kasih. Thank you. I dropped it to 924. That was a low. So, let's go. And this is red today still.
Pfizer red.
UNH flipped red.
It was up a percent
I am now short IW I'm up here see if that one works Gracias. Thank you. What's 50% retracement of this bigger range we've made now?
That's what I want to know.
Down at 24, 599.50.
Well, well. No squawking a minute. Nothing really coming out.
I had to be rejecting that spot up there. Damn I wanted to add, fuck. I should have.
I waited a little too late. A little too late. Thank you. Here we go.
Just increasing coordination with NATO allies. Blackstone and TPG complete their acquisition of Hologig for up to $79 per share.
The company is now private
Still drilling downside.
No real single reason to long at all today.
Let's see more downside on that. Hosaic said expects Q1 2026 pre-tax.
Both came back to $350 to $400 million,
including $275 million to $300 million impairment
due to workforce reductions at Arexa
and Patrocino sites at nephiling Thank you. Okay. So
Peltier looks like it wants to come back in the lows. Selling off from that bounce. Thank you. Try to make a higher low there on smaller time frames.
10 minute inverted on Idubs.
You got a red inverted on...
You got a red inverted on NQ. You have a green inverted on and Q you have a green inverted on I dubs.
Could they possibly put this higher and maybe Sorry. Thank you. Thank you. Mm-hmm.
Could that have been our bounce for the morning and that's it?
Could that have been our bounce for the morning and that's it? Could that be it? Thank you. I added to my IW inputs.
Projecting that 260.
I want to see it move down under 259 in the night trim.
That'd be nice.
Get under that spot that we bounced from about 10 minutes ago, 259.30.
Get under that.
That would be very good.
I like it.
Things calm down a good amount. Thank you. I think we saw our bottom for the day. Do do do. Apple puts... watch apple puts
a five minute little break of structure 10 minute reversal setup
10 minutes it's in the middle of the range so it's a one-to-one. I wish I saw that above.
Yeah.
I just got back to the desk and saw that.
It didn't do it. Thank you. Yo, I'll be right back.
Yes, master. Yo, I'll be right back.
Yes, master.
Heard.
Meta down here for a bounce.
U.S. Embassy in Baghdad said Iran backed Iraqi armed groups carried out drone attacks near diplomatic facility in Baghdad airport on Wednesday.
Security, Israeli security cabinet to convene Wednesday and we'll discuss Iran's ceasefire.
Israel was unhappy about the announcement and wasn't consulted on the terms of the deal.
Still holding. Oh, but don't. like
you know, on restrictions. The transitional work assigned in form. the traditional work assignment form, and kind of like,
and stick it all.
Then...
Right.
So I can tell you.
I can tell, like, my project was from the same.
In fact, she came off, you know, so you know, but, um, so the employee helped me.
So Dr. Chang, you know, with my research, you know, I can't lift more than two pounds.
I can't push a full more than one of these't post a full one in front of, like,
I still have to say,
like...
Okay.
They're gonna make me lose on IWM again?
Are they just gonna fuck me every way?
Are they gonna get me?
Are they gonna get me? Are they gonna get me?
Are they gonna get me? Bringing items back in again there. me me
no just hanging around
me nothing no Me? No? Just hanging around. Me? Nothing.
There's nothing to do here.
Again, I think you could have done was sell calls
or potentially buy puts a week or two out
and just sit in them all day.
I just posted a screenshot of the net drift premiums for SPY.
But, I mean, at 9.50 this morning, your put premiums crossed over your calls
and your volume has been declining all morning.
So again, this is a reason for my thesis of neutral to slow bleed.
And I just don't think it's the best trading environment to really do much.
I am thinking about swinging some poots on cruise lines, airlines potentially as well,
but I'm probably going to stick with my cruise lines first. We'll see.
Okay, okay, okay. Mainly looking at CCL right now.
CCL just hit March highs.
Huge extension from today.
I mean, being up 14% now it's up 11.
So just looking at some $27 calls for me.
It's gonna be May.
OK, I added to IWM again.
And to my last ad. I'm going to ask if we think it's still going to be a slow belief for the rest of the day.
Where do I think SPX can go?
I think 67 6730, personally.
I'm looking for more downside myself. Train it.
IWM goes under 259.
I am going to be paid.
Green on my contracts. contracts Under 259.30, IWM can die. Thank you. Hit me with a ceasefire didn't happen news. I'd shit myself if that happened.
I'd actually shit myself if that happened.
I'm in a solid 25 contracts of IWM shorts.
Let's train it
I definitely drop two dollars instantly
I'd be shitting myself
I'd be shitting myself Oh, here we go.
Come on, keep going.
The $259.50 there.
Right back up, though. Thank you. Thank you. Hmm. Thank you. Oh, we got things trying to push up here. Wally World and Costco still moving strong.
The Apple 10-minute played out.
The five-minute break of structure.
We wanted to see it move down like 257.50 and then 257.
It hit 257.37.
Thompson back to 258 now, but nice little move lower.
Adabia, I'm rejecting 260 again currently. Thank you. Mark is trying to pump here. Did we meet our lows of the day? Very possible. C'est bon. Thank you. U.S. defense official strike on the Iranian refinery wasn't conducted by the U.S. or Israel, according to Axios.
It wasn't us.
So if it wasn't U.S., it wasn't Israel, but there was a strike on our radio refinery.
Oh, no, sorry guys, it was me.
Yeah.
Who the fuck was it?
That was my fault.
Playing with my new toy.
Yeah.
Ribbon. Okay. . so Okay. CNCK coin check popping here.
Charlie, the member Charlie Kilo,
CNCK, small volume on that one.ご視聴ありがとうございました . I'm not gonna do anything. I'm not gonna do anything. I'm not gonna do anything.
I'm not gonna do anything.
I'm not gonna do anything.
I'm not gonna do anything.
I'm not gonna do anything.
I'm not gonna do anything.
I'm not gonna do anything.
I'm not gonna do anything.
I'm not gonna do anything.
I'm not gonna do anything.
I'm not gonna do anything. I'm not gonna do anything. We ain't doing nothing now.
Swept Asia.
Been a little bit choppier since we hit that level.
I guess there's been some scalps upside, but...
More sideways than anything around this area. Those are hands. Thank you. I'm going to go ahead and do a little bit. Nothing hitting the wire right now.
It's dead out there.
It's dead.
Dead as fuck.
What squawker is that? It's just Benzinga Charlie. Thank you. Energy sector still getting killed. Materials, a ticker Cortivo that we were talking about yesterday,
CTVA, that's down.
CME group down.
Healthcare names are still fighting to stay green.
Like UNH, Eli Lilly seems to be doing good.
Like Merck, Amgen,
those are all green about 2 2%, a little over.
UNH, CBS, Signal taking a little bit of a hit.
IBM's also still red.
Intuit, red.
PLTR's still down 2%.
Waste management has taken a hit as well.
Everything else is looking great, though.
Bank strong, industrial strong.
We do have meeting minutes in just over two hours.
Probably a nothing burger, like it's been,
but always good to stay aware of that time.
yo pleasure making money with you guys today let's do it again tomorrow
love you always a pleasure my bro we'll see you tomorrow later man enjoy the day
that'd be dog
a great morning
and we got lunch coming up
great time to take a little break
we're going to be doing our weekly yield max
combo like we always do 12 p.m.
eastern on wednesdays
we'll be on stream after
see how Michael Coe is feeling about this market. . coming up to the midpoint line here. . Dang, Robert, almost a six-figure day.
Look at the prophet on the prophet's channel.
Damn.
Holy shit.
You made like 90 grand.
You crazy. holy shit you made like 90 grand you crazy Coming up at 2 p.m. the FOMC meeting minutes and then at 2.35, Vince Waller will be speaking.
Yes sir thank you sir.
Yes sir sergeant. I'm going to go to the next video. Thank you. I'm trying to get over 80s on cue here.
We have previous hourly highs with an hourly gap we have not tested yet.
At 25,107.
Could see us trying to move up into that spot
and then I'd expect rejection from there.
Sweep that previous hourly high.
ES looks like it might take that high first.
So you could have some divergence if ES takes it.
And she doesn't necessarily need to,
even though I would say it's always better
if it chooses to do that as well.
But that's where I would watch for real rejection next.
Previous hourly highs on either of the assets.
You run through, 154.50, which is the top of that imbalance.
which is the top of that imbalance, then I could just think they're a lot more bullish
than I think initially. Thank you. . Thank you. EU's foreign minister Kalas said Iran crisis has shown the need for a stronger EU-Gulf partnership.
I don't want to go short right up here for a little scowl.
Could be a spot off these hourly highs right up into it.
Just for a little scowl piece.
Hopping back up to the 90s, 25-100 area. Thank you. . Thank you. Okay. Letter F Ford seeing some heavy activity in the May.
$12 calls on letter F Ford.
$12 calls, huh?ご視聴ありがとうございました Thank you. so
Take it to these hourly highs.
Come on.
ES is right there, too.
68.19.はい . Iran's foreign minister,
Arachee, in call with Turkish counterpart.
Iran accepted the ceasefire as a basis for complete end of the war.
From foreign ministry.
See if we take these hourly highs here going into lunch.
Could be a nice little short setup going into lunch.
I'm not trading it, but I do expect rejection off these hourly highs.
25, 107 on NQ.
See if bears try and step in there.
But yeah, no, no pressing the buttons for me today.
The Turkish counterpart that Tehran agreed to the ceasefire based on its 10-point plan.
Yeah, you're late, Charlie. You're late.
You're late, Charlie. You're late.
Is that a rank as a basis for a complete end of the war?
Yes, almost at the 6819. Let's see here.
We are moving into lunch, where we're going to be chatting a little bit about YieldMax
ETFs and just chatting a bit with Michael Cohen, seeing what his thoughts are on the
market.
And we'll get some of the YieldMax crew up here to ask some questions.
So if you guys have any questions in the audience as well, feel free to use the Spaces chat,
little purple bubble in the bottom right, and ask any questions about the funds that you guys might
have it's been a lot of volatility a lot of crazy moves recently so uh always welcome the questions
for the conversation here and reminder before we do get into the conversation for anyone that might
be listening we are going to be probably talking about some specific tickers so make sure you go
to yieldmaxetf.com
and check out the prospectus on any of the funds
that you guys are looking to trade
and just familiarize yourself with the actual products
that you're looking to potentially invest in.
And just read that prospectus carefully
so you fully understand
what you're actually potentially investing in there.
So I just wanna get that out of the way too.
Let me get this title change.
Did we get Michael Coe up here?
I think we did.
Let me see.
If not, we'll get him up.
There he is.
But yeah, just craziness in the markets.
We had a great deep dive yesterday too.
More on the macro side of things with all the boys from Neos and Austin Hankowitz.
And that was just a really fun conversation, kind of deep diving into how people are positioning more on the macro side of things with all the boys from Neos and Austin Hankowitz.
And that was just a really fun conversation, kind of deep diving into how people are positioning.
And so kind of now leading off that, it's going to be nice to hear about what people are doing in the income side of things.
So excited for it.
What's up, Michael Coe?
Happy Wednesday.
Oh, we can't hear you. Mike be bugging there we are there we go we got you how are you sir doing good great wednesday uh great it's been it's been an interesting week
obviously last night we had all the ceasefire news come out and iran accepted and then
things are getting hit this morning and violations of the ceasefire news come out and iran accepted and then things are getting hit this morning and
violations of the ceasefire are happening they couldn't even go what 12 hours without violating
the ceasefire so markets markets just all over the place this morning but obviously a crazy gap
up i think at the peak michael co we were on qqq down only 4.4% from all-time highs. And on SPY, we're down only about 3% from all-time highs.
So just crazy to see how fast things can change when it's kind of a man-made problem, right?
Yeah, we are reminded that it can take one party to start a war.
In this particular instance, it's going to take at least three to end it.
And yeah, I mean, I'm surprised actually
with the strikes that are going on in Lebanon
that the market's still holding up
as well as it is right now.
But, you know, I don't know if there's some back channel conversations going on saying,
hey, you know, this is, you know, the ceasefire, at least for now, is between
Iran and the United States. And we are going to try to encourage Israel to go along with it,
We're going to try to encourage Israel to go along with it, which I would have assumed was aligned ahead of time.
And there was a little bit of an order of operations question that I had when I first heard and read about the terms, which was that, you know, must the strait first open and then the ceasefire begins one would
assume that the ceasefire would begin and then the straight would open um i've been watching marine
traffic i don't see a lot of ship i mean look ships don't move that quickly there were there
were some ships that were starting to go through obviously a way lower rate than originally but um
obviously a way lower rate than originally,
but it looks like they closed it down again
since some issues have been arising this morning.
I mean, I only see, at the moment,
I only see one ship going in.
The Old Coast Destiny is traveling at about 6.9 knots.
Can I ask how you're seeing all that? Is that an app or a website?
Yeah. So I've been monitoring AIS, a good place to...
So there's a couple different sources, but there is a free one that anybody listening might be very interested in.
I actually think it's better than the data.
So AIS data, for those that don't know,
basically is the sort of transponder data
that vessel traffic around the world has to send.
And among other things, it's for situational awareness.
There's just shy of 320,000 ships around the world
that are using it and you're supposed to have it on at all times.
It will inform you of the name of the ship, the nature of the ship,
the flag of the ship, and the destination,
whether it is at anchor, whether it is underway, and so on.
You can go, so Bloomberg has a lifetime vessel map,
but if you don't have Bloomberg, you can go to marinetraffic.com.
There is a paid subscription, but you don't need it to see what's going on right now.
This updates, I think, every 10 minutes or so.
So if you've never been to the site before, in my case, when I load up the site, it just goes automatically to the Persian Gulf because that's where I leave it at all times.
So if you go to marinetraffic.com forward slash EN for English forward slash AIS, then it's going to take you to a map.
And you can then just as you do with most sort of map and navigation apps, you can just
move over and zoom in on that region. And then you can really zoom in if you want to on the
Strait of Hormuz itself. And I think it's helpful for people to sort of understand,
you know, what you're dealing with. If you haven't taken a good look at the map,
I think it's really helpful because one begins to understand
just how narrow a choke point it is that you're dealing with.
So if anybody listening right now is doing that live
and you zoom in on that pinch point in the Persian Gulf,
what you're going to see is that Hormuz is basically a little island in that narrow strait that's very close to sort of, we'll call it the Iranian mainland.
And just south of that is an island, Larak, Larak Shari.
Larak, yes, I see that.
Yes, okay. So if you're looking at Larak, now normally, as you look at that,
So if you're looking at Larac, now normally, as you look at that, so that entire from the southern shore to the northern shore is about 30 kilometers across.
And the conventional shipping lane through that region is about two miles wide right through the center.
But you're not going to see any ships in there because Iran has said no ships may travel through there.
Ships that are what are sanctioned.
So when we think about sanctions, normally we think of economic sanctions, right,
which are the restrictions that are imposed, for example, on Russia because of going into Ukraine
or Iran because they're sponsoring terrorism or whatever.
But actually, in the context of sanctioned ships, from a marine traffic point of view,
sanctioned means that they have been given sanction.
They are permitted by Iran to travel through the strait.
But they have a restriction, and that is that they need to travel on the north side of Lerakshari.
Now, if you look at the region right now, probably all you see are two ships exiting the Gulf, going from the
Persian Gulf into the Gulf of Oman, right? You probably see that. So there's a ship called
Hailong, which is destination Sohar Oman. They a, basically an AIS signal about an hour ago.
There's another one, NJ Earth, which doesn't have a destination actually logged in.
That's about three hours old.
And then you see going towards Lorac, Iolkos Destiny, which is destination Brazil.
Ghost Destiny, which is destination Brazil.
And then you'll see if you back out, you're going to see a lot
of just dots. And if you look at
those dots rather than arrows,
most of those ships are moored or at anchor.
Now, also helpful, if you're trying to
understand what's going on in here is not just
to see what's moving but also just to get a sense of what is normally going through the region so
you can also get marine news and let me just get you that. This one.
So if you go to, if you, probably if you just Google Marine News,
you can go to the same site, but let's see, Marine Traffic News.
So you don't want to go to Marine Traffic itself,
but I think it's Marine News.
I had this one in my bookmarks, and for whatever reason,
I seem to have misplaced it.
Where did I put that?
What that's going to show you is they give an update
on the Strait of Hormuz each and every day.
And it has a transit monitor.
And in that transit monitor,
it lists all of the ships that have been attacked, the date that they were attacked, their IMO number, the type of vessel it is.
And then you can see the number of vessels that have crossed the strait since March 1st.
March 1st being the first day after the initial strikes on the 28th.
I think 29 ships transited on that day.
Six were sanctioned, that is given express permission by Iran to transit.
Five were shadow, and then all the rest are marked in gray.
And what you can see is just how sharp the drop-off has been.
is just how sharp the drop-off has been.
In fact, at no time since the first
have more than seven ships
that were not sanctioned by Iran
to have transited the strait.
And that's a big, big drop-off
from what normally would be going through there.
And this is a real issue, of course, because
we tend to look at commodity prices by looking at things like futures. But in certain regions,
there are meaningful shortages. And a significant portion of the energy that transits that straight
each day is bound for Asia. So you can look at prices for West Texas intermediate crude.
That doesn't necessarily convey just how stark or dire the situation is in terms of a regional
supply shortage for, say, jet fuel or jet and kerosene, crude, or LNG.
Because that situation is getting pretty bad.
Yeah, agreed.
I'm curious, when you look at these dips that happen in the market
and you start hearing, like even people last week,
you start to hear people say,
oh, we're getting into the bear market time, right, and all these things.
And I haven't been around that long, of course.
But from what I've seen in the markets and just being around for the time that I have
been is it seems like it's extremely difficult for the market to really get into a bear market,
quote unquote, unless it's a real problem with, you know, big, big tech companies having poor
earnings, right?
Like real issues versus just like war happening, right?
This is all uncertainty.
And what I mean by this is like, you look back at tariffs, you look back at COVID and
it's like, we rebounded so unbelievably fast from those areas.
To me, it's like, until we have real issues with the underlying companies
that are holding this market up, I don't see this market actually going into a true bear market.
Like even with all this uncertainty and craziness, right? All it takes, I mean,
you see it this morning, all it takes is one ceasefire, right? And the market's back up to
just 3% off all-time highs. And so to me, I don't know.
I'm curious on your thoughts there, Michael Co.
Do you have any counter thoughts to that or do you agree?
I'm curious.
So it might seem surprising to many,
but if you take a look at the history of stock markets and war,
people's expectation might be that, oh, well, I assume that that's highly disruptive
and that markets roll over during times of war.
The truth is that actually markets usually do reasonably well during periods of war.
Several potential reasons for this, not least of which is that war tends to be an
inflationary environment.
It was an inflationary environment dating way back to before the times of fiat currency.
So it's been more so, of course, since then.
So since the creation of the Fed in 1913, since the unilateral devaluation of gold by FDR.
Since we formally went off the gold standard, of course, there's been more aggressive
money printing and debt taken on. But actually, war has always been inflationary, even when we
were on the gold standard. The only difference is that when we were on the gold standard. The only difference is that when we
were on the gold standard, typically periods of wartime inflation were followed by an immediate
post-war peacetime deflation. So that if you take a look, for example, at the price of goods and gold
terms from the post-revolutionary war period up until about the time of the war of
1912, not the first world war, what you'll see is that generally speaking, you know, prices for
goods actually would revert to their pre-war levels. So inflation was followed by deflation and price stability was more the order of the
day for over a century. So one reason why stocks would be an appealing place to be
could be that it's an issue of, you know, where do you put your money if money is being debased?
And, you know, do you want to own real assets? Do you prefer to have growing businesses
and things like that?
The second is that sometimes
it can stimulate an economy somewhat.
I think that was what some people have suggested
was true during World War II.
So that would be another possible reason.
You know, I think in a capitalist society,
generally businesses are going to do the best that they can. So they will try to be nimble,
they will try to adapt. And, you know, for the most part, if you look at the stock market,
it's always going to be a basket of the economy's winners. Now,
what those winners are from one moment to the next might change, but the S&P's 10 largest
constituents are very likely always going to be the 10 most successful companies in the country.
So from that respect, you can sort of say, I don't know what's going to win, but
the markets in general, I'm going to have whatever those winners are.
So I think that's certainly part of it.
What causes real bear markets?
Well, usually it's a combination of factors, but the most important is a slowing economy, which, as I just discussed, isn't necessarily associated with times of war.
In fact, the opposite can be true.
And inflation.
Now, why do I bring this up?
Because obviously rising energy prices is inflationary.
The other thing is that rising energy prices
can also be restrictive from an economic growth point of view.
You know, I read that some, you know, there's been some indication that every $10 in crude
in terms of prices translates to somewhere between 10 and 30 basis points of drag on global GDP.
Now that, of course, is over the course of a whole year, right? So if crude was averaged 60 in 2025 and it averaged 80 in 2026,
what does that translate to on, you know,
whatever $200, $220 trillion worth of global GDP?
And you could say, well, you know,
maybe if that average for the whole year was going to be $20 a barrel,
you know, maybe that's going to translate to something in the neighborhood of,
you know, 20, 30 basis points worth of global GDP drag.
The other thing to keep an eye on, of course,
is how did the economy look going into this?
And, you know, labor data.
By the way, I'm not trying to talk the market down.
I want the markets to go up just like everybody else. But some of the revisions that we saw in labor data were weak, I think, even coming into this. So if anybody was looking at this situation
saying, okay, well, what could cause it to slow down? The market, that is.
Those would be the things I would look at.
That if you combine a slowing economy with inflation,
that brings up the dreaded word
that people mention a lot more than it happens,
and that's stagflation.
That would be something that could precipitate a bear market.
It did in the 70s.
But to your point, bear markets are the exception, not the rule.
So that's one of the reasons why I think that people keep talking about them
happening a lot more often than they actually do.
Yeah, I couldn't agree more.
I appreciate the breakdown there.
And I'm curious, with all that said, over the past week,
how has all this craziness been affecting distributions?
It looks like Chippy did pretty well this past week.
Ulti as well, maybe some others.
I'm curious, do you have any thoughts there?
Yeah, I mean, higher implied volatility in general
is going to mean that, you know, all else equal, we're collecting more for the call spreads that we're in where we're looking at these 150 handle
moves in the S. And if you were just selling upside calls rather than call spreads, you might
be formally capped. But also with the higher implied volatility, the short strike is typically
going to be further away from the spot price for the underlying and the amount of premium
you're collecting for it is a little bit more. I will say, and some may have noticed this, that
Alt-D had a small allocation to some triple Q put spreads going into this event yesterday.
into this event yesterday.
You know, Alti is net long underlying stocks.
And, you know, one thing that would happen
if we didn't reach some form of an accord
would be that obviously equities
probably would have sold off
and correlation would have risen.
And because we're collecting more premium
for the call spreads that we're selling
or the calls that we're selling on some of those stocks,
allocating a small amount of it
to a little bit of disaster insurance made sense.
And that was, I think,
in the neighborhood of like a five to one payoff.
So the idea was if the news is good and there's a ceasefire, and the straight opens,
and the market rips, we win. But if for whatever reason, some of that rather, you know,
I don't know how else to describe it, but dangerous rhetoric that we were talking about
ahead of time, that made it look like maybe maybe things could worsen before they got better. You know, some short dated, relatively tight
strike out of the money put spreads could pay four or five plus to one and mitigate some of the
downside. So in that way, you can think about it this way. If you are short options on single
stocks and you're long on index, what happens to correlation when the market declines? It usually
rises, right? So you're sort of embedding a little bit of a conditional correlation hedge into the
portfolio. I see we got Dan up on stage too. Good to have you, Dan.
Yeah, I'm thrilled to be here.
And I was kind of proud of the team for doing that trade
in that, you know, adding a little protection at that moment,
just the price was right, made a lot of sense to me.
Yeah, actually, it was a point that Scott made that I thought was really interesting.
He was looking at the price of, you know, Triple Q and SPY.
Obviously, that would translate to NDX and SPX straddles for next week.
And, you know, we were rather surprised that they weren't more expensive because it seemed pretty clear that a move of 100 handles in the S
would happen almost certainly one way or the other in just one day.
And those things were trading it close to a break-even,
and you had five days to go if you were choosing choosing next monday as your as your
hedge which is what we had on um and of course a lot can still happen you know that's the other
thing um i i would call the situation very tenuous even with the stress fire with the ceasefire i
think it's a very uh strenuous situation here I assume that's probably everybody
else's view as well yeah I mean it's just you never know if what you're seeing on the wire that
comes out is really really true what happening right now it's just it's it's craziness um but
I'd love to get over and see if Ms. Roundhill you have any thoughts on some of the funds that have
been affected this past week it's been crazy in the market. So, curious if you have any questions
for Michael Coe here.
So, we were talking
a little bit about implied
volatility being elevated,
but have you, you know,
like, how has realized volatility
affected our premiums
that we're collecting from YieldMax?
So, realized implied volatility is the price of options.
So realized volatility affects how much the underlying stock moves around,
but it does not necessarily affect the price of the options.
Implied volatility and the price of the underlying stock
at the moment that you trade the option are the determinant factors in the price of an option.
Now, that's not to say that realized volatility doesn't matter to somebody who is trading options on an underlying stock, whether you are buying them or selling them.
But probably the way to think about it is this.
If you sell an option just at the moment
that a stock dips violently
because it's swinging around wildly,
even though you've got a higher implied volatility
and then it ricochets back,
and you're not doing it on a delta neutral basis because you have either a proxy
for or you own the underlying position in any case, it becomes a bit of an execution,
like a timing execution risk issue.
But it doesn't necessarily have an impact on the price of an option.
So if you look at the variables, the inputs for the price of an option,
realized volatility is not one of them.
Realized volatility, as you look forward,
ends up helping one sort of look back and say,
okay, was that a good sale or not?
If I sell implied volatility at 20
and the market realizes 50,
now it's possible that options trade
could have been profitable
if this stock went in the chosen direction.
So I own stock ABC.
I sell a call on it at 20 vol.
It realizes 50, but the stock goes down.
In that case, I still collect the options premium.
And maybe I wished or feel like
I should have gotten more for it,
but no harm, no foul.
If the stock goes higher at a rate of 50 volatility realized, that means that it's
moving much more violently than the options markets had anticipated ex ante. And so, you know, it's the way to think about implied versus realized is how good a deal did I get when I bought or sold my option relative to what ended up happening between the time that I bought or sold it and the time that that option expired or I closed it.
I hope that helps.
I hope that helps.
Yes, I just, as they say,
during when there's a correct then,
some of your best updates are right afterwards.
So right now I'm really looking at my holdings
and looking to see which ones are getting capped the earliest
because not getting capped is really good.
So I'm really glad that Yomex, they transitioned to using call spreads.
That way there might be a gap, but we don't get exact, you know, hardcore capped anymore.
You know what?
Well, here's a way to, I don't know if you have the ability to do this with your brokerage platform.
I'm sure many of you can, though, and you might find this useful.
If you just chart SPX volatility and there's two volatilities you can take a look at. One would be, say, one month implied volatility, which also is the same
sort of options that are being used to calculate the VIX. Now, the VIX methodology involves a
strip of options, a weighted strip of options, so that you essentially create what's called a
synthetic variant swap. So you have kind of a constant big exposure. But a 30 delta one month put in SPX is probably going to be pretty close
to VIX implied ball, just as a rule of thumb, as a simple heuristic. But if you take a look
at the implied volatility, one month implied volatility for the S&P this year, and look at
realized volatility also so far this year, what you're going to see is that
implied has pretty consistently been above realized. And what the difference between those two
is basically the volatility risk premium. It peaked the difference.
Now realize that implied vol is looking forward
and realized volatility is looking backwards.
But still, if you had sold volatility on,
let's say March 9th,
one month fall in S&P on March 9th,
that was around 22 spot two.
So that means that the options market
was anticipating an annualized standard deviation
for the S&P of about 22 and a half-ish percent
over the next 30 days.
Now, we are about 30 days after that now.
What's 30-day realized volatility?
So what that says, if you had just sold vol, hedged your gamma, delta neutral, you should
have realized about four clicks in terms of vol over that timeframe.
clicks in terms of all over that timeframe.
So, and that from an option seller's point of view is what you like, right?
Because then you say, okay, I got a good deal by selling options because the market was
extremely anxious and it did move around much more than usual.
It did move around much more than usual.
So 18.2% realized volatility is high, right?
To put things into perspective,
the average for the last year was 15.7.
Inclusive, by the way, of the last 30 days.
And that's also inclusive of sort of the tariff tantrum, right?
So there's some violent moves in there.
If you excluded the really violent moves associated with the tariffs,
so if I said, okay, well, I want to look at the implied volatility from,
oh, I don't know, June 1st of last year through the end of the year,
the number would be substantially, substantially lower.
Then the mean volatility is about 13.7. But, you know, the hope is that the volatility risk premium
for an option seller, what you're expecting, what you're hoping is that there is going to be
a volatility risk premium, that people are going to pay a little bit more for the insurance that
options provide than they actually realize
in the real world. Just like when a car, when Geico sells car insurance, they're not expecting
the claims to be zero. They're just not expecting them to add up to as much as they sold the
insurance for less their expenses, their operating expenses. And the difference is their profit
margin. And an options is their profit margin.
And an options trader usually thinks about things much the same way.
If insurance is way too cheap,
then you're going to be a little bit more judicious about how you sell it.
But even net of everything that has happened over the course of the last month,
there has been a pretty persistent volatility risk premium in the S&P and in a lot of other places.
Some really great thoughts.
Ms. Roundhill, did you have any other pieces you want to bring up?
Nope, that's it.
Yeah, great stuff.
I really appreciate the questions.
I had a question from the audience about Ulti,
about the rebalancing there. They were just saying the website says regularly, but doesn't specify to the frequency of rebalancing. Do you want to explain that a
little bit, Michael Ko? Sure. I mean, Ulti is, you know, the constituent stocks of Ulti are,
Constituent stocks of Ulti are, you know, this is a discretionary fund.
So it's not like on a metronome in terms of its schedule.
Every single week, the investment committee meets.
We had an investment committee meeting yesterday, and we revisit what's in there.
Every single day, the traders and the portfolio managers are, you know, reviewing the positions.
We have a process that identifies via just simple screening techniques, new potential candidates.
And, you know, we also have some other thresholds that, you know, might suggest that names that we
previously liked to hold in there might come off.
So there's a ranking mechanism.
And so even in between investment committee meetings,
it's possible for a constituent to leave and for another one to be added.
Sometimes that could be based on a catalyst.
So these positions are effectively collared,
meaning that sometimes as much money as can be made in a position will have been, and the thesis has been played out.
So if that's the case, they might then take the next sort of candidate and add it and remove
the one that essentially has been played out. And then, of course, the options traders are
adjusting the options overlays
depending on whatever happens to be happening that day, right?
So if a short call is now worth very, very little,
they would cover it and then look to roll,
that sort of thing.
Dan is red dotted on our team,
so I don't know if he's still listening in here oh i'm active
if you are yeah okay good i saw you red dotted on teams and maybe you're just alerting everybody
else not to bother you because you're busy in this one but i'd let you chime in on this yeah
no so so um we don't automatically rebalance um because we're an active fund. So we're reviewing the holdings on a daily
and as Mike said, weekly basis.
So when there's a change fundamentally in the holdings,
we could make the change on a Tuesday, Thursday, Friday,
whatever.
So it was a great question
because I think sometimes people always,
sometimes people think that ETFs are passive.
These are definitely very active funds.
Gotcha. That makes a whole lot of sense for sure. So I hope that kind of answers the question for
those in the audience there too, that were wondering about the rebalancing. CryptoFit,
I want to get over to you, my man. Good to see you again. You're getting in a lot more of these
spaces, which I love to see.
You got any thoughts for Michael Coe here?
Dan?
Yeah, I mean, the most fun is now co-hosting the Income Hour, if you will.
Love that you're doing that, by the way.
Everybody should tune into that on Thursdays if you're not.
Well, I appreciate that.
It's at 2 p.m. Eastern on Thursdays. And what's great
about our community is, man, we are, Ms. Roundhill will attest to this. She's awesome in there with
me. We are a unique community. We come on here and, you know, we don't all talk about, I would
say high level stuff, what's going on with, you know, the stuff, what's going on with the trades, what's going on with
the calls and all that. It's mainly about how can I escape the matrix and use these funds
to cover parts of my life? It's like the new fire, if you will. And I know we as,
I would call it influencers, have a responsibility not to give financial advice, but to give
financial motivation, inspiration, and past experiences. And I just want a question for
Dan or Michael would be, you know, that's what a lot of these people are seeing and doing,
right? And the clearest way to look at it is you need to understand the underlining,
know, like, and understand what
you're invested in, right? If you're a crypto person, you know, like I am, I know like and
invest during times where I know is a good time to buy and I can buy the income funds.
But is the best conversation to have with these individuals to realize that
this does need to have a little bit more careful of a strategy behind it.
Meaning, maybe you are looking to build a big position.
It should be in something maybe like a big E or one of the zero DTE type funds
where you can just build that over time.
And if you use a vehicle mechanism like Alty that produces a lot
of income, you don't always have to reinvest back into Alty, but you do need to consider
reinvestment period, right? So maybe you're reinvesting Alty back into Big E. And once again,
we're not giving advice to these people. It's just conversations. But do you guys have any,
Do you guys have any, like if you're a person with a $250,000 portfolio, are you building your base, your biggie base?
Or are you actually trying to be a little more risky?
Or how would you use these funds if you just had a quarter million dollars and you were trying your best to maybe pay a couple bills?
Are you allowed to say that?
I might have said all that and you're not allowed to say anything.
Dan, you want to address that? Then maybe have said all that and you're not allowed to say anything. Dan, you want to address that?
Then maybe I can chime in.
Oh my God.
I'm so afraid to respond to that.
Okay, make it up.
So it's a theoretical book, right?
You're writing a children's book and you want to explain to children how to do income funds.
I actually wrote a book on it on AI and I was like, it's called the income robot or machine. And I read it to my son and he was like, dad,
shut up. But, you know, it's a good way to get going. You know, listen, I think, I think depending
on the market circumstances where volatility is high, these are a way to capture that
income, right? And, and that's a wonderful thing, right? You're getting paid to wait.
And they may end up being like some of these funds there, how do I say this?
Okay, so I'll be more direct. There are certain funds that I'm involved with where there's a lot of overlap.
Right. But in the in the case of the YieldMax product, yeah, I get that some people are disappointed that there may be upside that's capped.
But the benefit of that is you're getting the income.
Whereas if there's an overlapping fund that I'm involved with that doesn't have the cap, you're going to end up getting a lot more upside, but a lot more volatility, which can be very scary.
So yeah, to me, the way you should look at these funds is you're getting the benefit of that income
stream. And that's why you want to be invested in them. And you mix them with some of the funds that might be able to go parabolic
in the space.
I hope that makes sense.
I would quickly point out one thing, which is that, of course, with the single stocks,
the upside is reduced but not capped. So if you have a really violent upside move,
think AMD, Nvidia, tail end of last year, Q4, 25, you're not capped. You'll probably see something
in the neighborhood of 70% to 80% of the upside. The way I think about this is that there is one's investment
portfolio, which is what is my exposure to equities? What is my exposure to income producing
equity strategies? For that, you're looking for diversified products. So that could be
something, Big E would be an example. Big E has the top 50 names in the S&P,
You know, Big E would be an example. Big E has the top 50 names in the S&P, and the underlying stocks are going to behave a lot like that. Quad D has the same underlying constituent stocks as the Dow Jones Dividend Index, 100 stocks in there while paying dividends.
It's a different mix, of course. You're going to have less of the growth stocks, which typically don't pay as much in dividends, and a lot more things like energy and staples and so on, utilities, things like that.
But I think as a base, if you're thinking about investing, what you want to have is a core group of diversified equity exposure.
equity exposure. I think that's sort of a launchpad, right? The single stock strategies are
I think that's sort of a launchpad, right?
exactly that. A strategy in a stock, a strategy in a box, they're intended to make the strategy
of selling weekly covered call spreads on an underlying stock easily accessible, logistically
much simpler than affecting those trades yourself.
But when you do that, you need to select them, as you just said, the way you would any stock.
Is this an opportunity to get into it?
You mentioned that you like crypto.
Maybe you like Bitcoin.
Maybe you like MicroStrategy.
The market doesn't always like those things, though.
So from my perspective, when it comes to when and how do you allocate,
one, if it's going to be a single stock, you're by definition doing something somewhat tactical, right?
That's more of an individual bet that you're making
when you do something like that
rather than getting into a diversified product. And then there's something in the middle. right? That's more of an individual bet that you're making when you do something like that,
rather than getting into a diversified product. And then there's something in the middle, you know,
I mean, if you're dealing with something like mining, that's just saying, you know, I think
now's a good time to get into a swath of miners. That's both, you know, rare earth,
industrial and precious, you know, metal mining, basically.
Same thing with a chippy or a Soxie, something like that. But I think at its core, every investor should have
just a basic diversified group of equities.
of equities and then all of this other stuff
And then all of this other stuff is tactical around that.
is tactical around that.
And that could be a technical tactic
that you're deploying there,
or it could be a fundamental one
or some combination of these,
which is typically the way I operate.
Which is to say that, you know,
I'm not a technical analyst per se,
but I do pay attention to charts,
probably to some extent like everybody does.
Well, yeah, and it's simple that I'm glad we're having these conversations now with
the community because it's like, let's say you are very bullish on micro strategy.
Obviously, it's a great time to start buying, a great time to start accumulating, and then
a great time to start reinvesting your dividends to get more shares. Now, when strategy hits 1,500 a share and everybody
says that Saylor's the best investor, he'll outpace Buffett here, might be a better time
to take your increased yield that you're getting because share price goes up, payouts are going to
go up. That might be a time to start to stop reinvesting and open up a new
position with your, you know, the distribution you're getting. And maybe that's the time to
open it up in a biggie or something else. I'm just spitballing, but these are fun conversations
we're having with community, but man, we are a mix of people who have opinions. That is for sure.
Thursdays at two. Is that what I heard? Oh, hey, Michael, be very careful. It's not like a
bloodbath per se, Ms. Roundhill, but people have opinions, right? Can you back me up?
Yes, we all come with different backgrounds and why we need our income and our, you know, we're at different stages in our investing journey.
And it just so interesting to hear everybody's own,
um, where they're at with their investing journey.
I'd say we're like a group of WWE wrestlers, right? We're kind of, we're not,
we're not that crazy, but we're not that sane.
I'm going to have to tune in for this. Yeah. Hop on there, Michael. We're not that crazy, but we're not that sane.
We're going to have to tune in for this.
Yeah, hop on there, Michael Co.
It's hosted by the Wolf Financial account.
CryptoFit's usually behind it on Thursdays at 2.
So reminder for everybody else in the audience, too.
We're doing that income show now. So kind of trying to lean more into the income stuff and actually have a show around it just besides, you know, what we do here on Wednesdays. So really good stuff there. Big shout out to you, CryptoFit. Did you have any other
pieces you wanted to touch on? No, I just really like what's going on with Alti and WiMAX.
Great job. I think people forget last little, it's a very small rant, well, how Michael said,
you know, diversify big portfolio, that is Alti still.
That still is Alti.
If tech rips, Alti's share price is going to, I'm not going to say rip with it, but it's not going to continue to go down when you look at the holdings.
So, I mean, I still put that as a part of my base.
It's not the same product as Biggie, but it's not a completely different.
It just has a little slightly different purposes.
Still very diversified.
Yeah, you'll get correlation with the trend.
You know, that's the key.
I think that's the key word that everybody's looking for on it.
Absolutely.
We really appreciate the thoughts as always, my man,
and good luck on the show.
I'll try and tune in for more of them.
I know I was on the first one.
I'm going to try and hang out with you guys a little bit more on that and support everybody.
Let's get over to Dividend Millennials.
I know we have two Dividends up here.
We'll get over to you, Ken, as well.
But I want to start off with Dividend Millennial and see if you have any thoughts on the conversation. I know you mentioned you don't trade YieldMax funds too much, but just curious if you have any thoughts or questions for the crew here.
If you want to add in any thoughts that you have on the market here, I'd love to hear that as well.
Yeah, no, thanks for having me. And yeah, Mike and Dan. So, you know, usually when trading options,
I feel like one to 2% a month is probably something that you can really attain. It's out
there. There's always opportunity for it. And when you have funds that
are paying out 50, 70, 80%, my thought is, is you guys said, oh, upside's capped or it's not
necessarily capped or reduced. Is there any reason, what's the reason for going, I guess,
that high as opposed to still putting out like maybe a 25% distribution, which would be higher than most other competitors.
But then, you know, you're not going to necessarily have nav erosion or anything there because
it seems like the money has to come from somewhere.
And obviously we would all love to make 50, 70% a year.
We'd all be billionaires.
So I guess my question is, is what is the, like, what is the reasoning to go that high
and how, what should you expect, I guess, total return-wise versus distribution-wise?
So, yeah, I mean, it's a great question, and I think it probably bears a little bit of elucidation here.
So the amount of these payouts is typically going to be dictated by the implied volatility
of the underlying that you're dealing with, right?
So it's not an arbitrary kind of thumb in the wind,
like, oh, what are we going to distribute with these?
So for example, if I have some hypothetical stock,
the implied volatility is, we'll call it 50, a high number like that.
And I sell an option.
That's the amount that on an annualized basis we're probably going to be paying out in the subsequent week, if it's a weekly payer, for example.
week, if it's a weekly payer, for example. So there's not a target distribution the way there
is for the target 12 or 25 funds, right? Or actually, in some ways, although it floats a
little bit more, Quad D. Quad D is a target product of a sort in the sense that the amount
of premium that you're hoping to collect on a net basis is going to be dictated effectively by the dividends that the underpinning group of stocks are going to be paying.
So as far as the NAV is concerned, the NAV is going to be affected by the distributions.
Of course, whenever you have a portfolio, you distribute some amount of money, that portfolio is going to decline by by the distributions. Of course, whenever you have a portfolio,
you distribute some amount of money, that portfolio is going to decline by whatever
you distributed. Makes sense. Whether or not that is going to have a NAV result over that period
that is lower than where it started is going to be if you distribute more than the total returns before the distribution was made,
then of course the NAV on a per share basis would be lower.
For the investor, if you want to keep that consistent, you can say, okay, well, what's the difference?
Let's just say you had a return over the course of a week that was 50 basis points.
50 basis points is a nice number in the context of what you just suggested
because that works out to 25% annualized.
But there was, let's just say for the sake of argument,
there was a 1% distribution.
You could take 50% of the distribution and reinvest it.
And you would say, well, why doesn't the fund manager just do that? Well, here's the thing. If I realized 1% from one week to the next on a short
call option in terms of premium, that's a realized gain. And we really need to distribute 90% or more
of the realized gains that we get. Now, this isn't the entire tax period,
but in general, it's a good idea to just simply say,
okay, whatever the realized gains are,
we're going to pass that back.
And the reason is because otherwise,
the fund is going to be subject to corporate income tax.
And we don't want that because that's a 30% hit.
It's easier to lower the basis in the shares, distribute it, have people reinvest if they
choose, and essentially leave that in investors' hands because it is less likely to have a negative
tax implication or a negative tax surprise at the end of the tax period.
And it puts more flexibility into the hands of the investor.
So, you know, aesthetically, we would prefer probably not to do it that way because it's
much nicer to say, OK, well, we're going to try to manage this for NAV stability instead. The other thing is that from a fund manager's point of view,
economically, we'd, of course, be better off to retain more, right? We don't get paid on money
that we don't manage. So logically, investors must look at that and say, well, why do they do this?
So logically, investors must look at that and say, well, why do they do this?
I mean, there must be some reasons.
And there are, right?
Those are the reasons.
One, it gives more flexibility to the investor.
And two, there are tax implications that may be at work there.
And then, of course, the final thing is, and this is the unfortunate reality, of course,
investing in stocks in general, which is that stocks don't go up all the time.
So if you're looking at a stock like Moderna, which has had a great year so far this year,
certainly it had a very miserable time in prior periods. If the underlying stocks that
you own are declining or declining fast, then your nav is going to go down, of course, because those stocks just simply aren't
doing well. Strategy didn't have a great 2025. Neither did Moderna have a great 24, 25 period.
So all of those things are going to go into it. But we are at this point, and I think Quad D is probably the best example,
looking at very conservative options overlay strategies that have quite modest option premium
targets and are focused more on sort of longer term capital appreciation, as much qualified
dividends as those underlying stock would normally have for those to whom that applies. But a little bit more income because frankly, 3% dividend yield,
3.5% dividend yield for many people who are investing in things so that they can actually
actually deploy that income, it's probably, you know, probably not enough.
deploy that income is probably not enough.
So, sorry, quick question on follow-up on that, and I appreciate the response to it. So when
you're saying that it's, you know, return to capital or coming back in that regard, and you
have, you know, some other funds like a NEOS, for example, that's doing 15%, the same thing,
are they doing something that would be taxed differently that you said that – or is it the same kind of protection that they have?
So all of the – I'm not going to speak to anybody else's fund, but I'll just speak generally to the lay of the land.
And that is that to be a pass-through entity, you need to distribute 90% of your realized gains.
a pass-through entity, you need to distribute 90% of your realized gains. If you are the rock,
so return of capital is going to take place under kind of, I guess, two circumstances.
But one of those could be that you have, you might have unrealized gains. So is it possible to see NAV go up and to have a ROC distribution?
And the answer is yes.
And we have seen that happen.
That's when underlying positions rise in value.
You don't realize those gains.
And then you have realized losses on some options
if the underlying went through those gains. And then you have realized losses on some options if the underlying went
through those strikes. So the overall value of the fund went up. Maybe the overall value of the fund
went up by more than the amount of distributions that were made, and yet you can still have some
return of capital. So there's a timing mismatch issue that can play into it.
Other managers also are deploying other types of
strategies sometimes. On the single stock strategies, ours are pretty straightforward.
We own a proxy for the underlying stock. We are short, short-dated call credit spreads against
that. If the underlying positions rise for any given period through the short strike of the call,
positions rise for any given period through the short strike of the call, you cover the short
call, realize the loss on that, but you bid money on the rest of your position,
but you don't realize it for the period, that would be a return of capital, that distribution.
And you can have a similar situation where you can actually have something that's not a return to capital
and the underlying position went down.
I own a stock.
I don't do anything with that position.
Stock declines.
I sold a call, collected a buck for the call.
I distributed a dollar.
That could be income.
So, you know, all else equal investors should know this,
which is that for most investors,
the better circumstance in terms of classification of a distribution is going to be return of capital
because it lowers your basis.
It doesn't create an immediately taxable event.
So that's generally preferable.
And the ideal situation is one where the total returns for the underpinning constituents of the portfolio are as large or larger than the distributions that are made.
And that would be your chippies and your socksies, where the underpinning stocks obviously did exceptionally well.
And consequently, you have share price appreciation and you have healthy distributions.
That's obviously the happiest circumstance.
Some really great stuff, Michael Coe.
I hope that made sense to you, Dividend Millennial.
I do want to get over to Dividend Ken as well
and see if you have any thoughts on the conversation
that we've had so far.
We're wrapping up in about five minutes.
But Ken, any thoughts for Michael conversation that we've had so far, we're wrapping up in about five minutes, but Ken,
any thoughts for Michael Coe or, or Dan up here?
Hey, yeah. Thanks for having me. Yeah.
I had a couple of questions and I know we're short on time,
but just since you mentioned about DVD,
just how has it been trading from you guys point of view and how are the,
the monthly calls looking I know is
coming up on trading for four weeks that's kind of like two of my questions
and I'm expecting you know because it's such conservative calls I'm expecting
at the end of the year for DDD for there to be premium I know with your your
max the other funds you normally push out the additional
premium throughout the year so there's not that long some but i i have the inkling that it may be
some additional premium in ddd come in the year and i was wondering what's the plan for that
and then another one is uh if there is a back test on ddd would you guys be able to share
test on DDD. Would you guys
be able to share it?
That's... I don't
know. Dan, do you know the answer?
I'm not sure if we can
share a back test.
Yeah, we'd be very hesitant,
especially on an active fund.
I think that's frowned upon.
I am not a compliance
expert. Let's start with that. I am not a compliance expert.
Let's start with that.
So I'm not a securities lawyer.
But I think there's a reason why that doesn't happen because almost every strategy has been tested in some way.
And I'm trying to think if I've ever seen
or been a part of an organization
that distributed backtest collateral.
I don't think we ever have.
And if you had, I can guarantee it wasn't a bad backtest.
No, no one's ever seen a bad backtest.
Of course not, right?
The first rule of backtests, that's right.
You'd never see a bad one.
And by the way, considering that you know that every strategy that somebody comes up with has probably been worked through in some respect,
then one might assume that chances are whatever we've been looking at, it looks pretty good on a relative basis.
And, you know, past is no indication of future results.
What I would say is that for those who are interested in Quad D, you know, take a look
at its performance and total returns relative to the S&P, relative to the Qs, relative to
any product you want since, you know, its launch, which is very short.
What you're going to notice, so now I'm just talking about the trading days since March 12th,
when this thing began trading, this is a pretty stable basket of stocks.
So I think the peak to trough drawdown over that period for the S&P, I'm just going to quickly do this calculation, see what it looks like, was, what is that number?
4.85, 4.86% or thereabouts probably for the S&P.
And that was from March 17th to the 30th.
So people can do this work at home if they're interested.
And if I then take a look at Quad D,
just getting the data from my Bloomberg here, 1.6%.
And that was between the 17th also, not surprising, but actually the 20th.
Because after the 20th, a lot of the constituent stocks that are in the Dow Jones Dividend Index actually started to outperform the S&P more broadly.
more broadly. So, you know, one of the things you'll notice about it is that, you know,
it has so far been, you know, considerably less volatile. And, you know, that is kind of the
history for that index. And that's kind of what you would expect, right? I mean, the big dividend
payers are not the big growers. They don't have tons and tons of beta, typically.
Again, that's no guarantee that that's the way the future will play out.
But I think that it is behaving the way we expected it would.
And from our perspective, that's a good thing.
Nice.
And then just,
I had a,
I don't know if I threw it in there,
but are,
are moving forward,
are you expecting,
you know,
SCHD has that CAGR roughly 9%,
99%.
Well,
how will that work?
Will that,
will you guys be able to replicate that on the additional premium that you're collecting?
Nine and a half percent on top of the objective here is.
No, no. Go ahead.
I was saying, so, you know, SAHD's five year tagger dividend growth is roughly about 9.15%. I know you guys went from holding 16% to 13% of SCHD directly in the fund,
but on the additional premium, just moving forward, I guess overall yearly,
do you expect that you would be able to replicate that exactly?
So, yeah, SCHD, I would expect as the assets grow in Quad D,
So, yeah, SCHD, I would expect as the assets grow in Quad D for SCHD as a constituent of the portfolio to decline.
And why is that?
So our objective is to hold and to replicate the Dow Jones dividend index stocks.
When the fund is a little bit smaller, you smaller, there's 100 stocks in there. They are
not equal weight. And that means that some of the very smallest constituents in there,
we need to have at least round lots to trade options overlays. I'm sure that makes sense
because options contracts represent 100 shares. So SCHD is being used so that the underpinning holdings of securities,
whether by proxy, SCHD, or actual holdings,
by actually holding the underpinning shares,
are appropriately weighted relative to the index.
So you'll notice that we have 1,300 shares, for example, of Merck, 1,200 shares of ConocoPhillips, 2,000 shares of Coke.
But for smaller constituents of the index, perhaps we can't hold a smaller percent and then do an override against it.
against it. So we can use SEHD because there are options on SEHD, right? And that way we know that
So we can use SCHD because there are options on SCHD.
as close as we can get it, effectively owners of Quad D own the stocks that SEHD does,
that the Dow Jones Dividend Index does, and that we're selling options against the basket.
You know, if there was, let's hope, you know, let's say it got to SCHD's side, so you're looking at $80, $90 billion of assets in it, then it wouldn't be necessary to hold SCHD.
In fact, it would probably be counterproductive to do it that way.
There'd be just an additional friction that's not necessary, so we might as well just hold the underlying stocks and sell options against them. And that would be that. And therefore, the dividends that you get on those
underpinning stocks are going to track the index as well, because you actually hold the stocks,
right? As far as the options income is concerned, that's going to depend a little bit on applied
volatility. And, you know, our hope is that that would ebb and flow with the dividends
because that's our target.
So if the dividend yield goes down a little bit,
then the options overlay strategy is going to become
slightly more conservative.
And if they go higher, then the options overlay strategy
is going to be slightly more aggressive
just to sort of achieve that double dividend.
Okay. Yeah. Thank you so much. I appreciate it. That's, that's kind of what the,
one of the big questions I was looking for. I just want to confirm that, you know, it will be, you guys, it should track that part of it as well. I know, I know it's like, the goal is just
a double dividend, but, um, the premium per se, I was, I was thinking that the premium per se, I was thinking that the premium per se wouldn't necessarily grow.
But in this case, it's different than your other funds and it should.
And then if you had anything on the potential, there'd be any potential extra in the fund on this one compared to the other ones.
Oh, I think it's early days to...
Way too early.
Yeah.
Thank you so much.
Some great stuff, crew.
This is a really good conversation.
Michael, Kyle, real quick, I have just one more from the audience that I want to make sure to get in here.
They wanted their question answered.
They asked, do you think Yieldmax marketing strategy is correctly targeted for the investing class of the average high-yield investor?
He said, I'm seeing lots of HELOCs taken out for such volatile funds.
Maybe you can explain a little bit how you guys look to stay a little more sustainable compared to some of these other funds out there.
Yeah, I mean, there are some funds that deploy leverage.
We don't.
Leverage is a double-edged sword, so that's one way I would differentiate the things we do.
HELOCs, to purchase any securities, you're getting far out on the risk curve when you start doing that kind of thing.
curve when you start doing that kind of thing. I guess I would suggest that if you're looking to
use any leverage in the securities markets, the amount that's afforded by broker dealers to most
customers is about as far as one would ever want to get to begin with. So, you know, for some people, that means no
leverage. For some, that's going to be reg T margin. And for more sophisticated investors
with longer time horizons and are more nimble and have good risk management techniques and approaches, customer portfolio margin might be okay. But HELOCs, this isn't, I've never heard
of anybody who's a fiduciary. We are fiduciaries. We are investment advisors in that sense.
I've never heard any fiduciary recommend that as an investment approach. And that is not dependent on what it is you're buying
and how safe you think it is. That doesn't strike me. I don't encourage anybody to,
when they get an envelope in the mail from Bank of America that says, hey, here's a bunch of
checks. You can use your available credit from your credit card. You write a check for whatever
you want, a vacation or whatever it is.
I mean, I get these things in the mailbox all the time.
I'm thinking, who uses these checks
and what do they use them for?
But that would not be a good way
to deploy into risk assets either.
And that's the important thing, right?
So when you're buying securities,
these are risk assets.
Some are riskier than others.
Some approaches are riskier than others. Some approaches are riskier than others.
But if you get too levered and start doing things like that,
what is going to end up happening is you will be forced out
at the worst possible moment.
And if I've seen people get carried out for anything,
that's usually it.
I've seen a lot of very smart people
who had the right idea, but the biggest thing that was wrong with their trade was they took
on too much risk and got stopped out and usually leverages the cause.
Absolutely agree. Yeah, that's every day for us on the day trading side of things.
But Michael Ko, I know we're going a little over time.
I appreciate that breakdown there and always appreciate your time coming on these spaces, being super transparent with everybody and just allowing everybody to come on here and ask any questions that they have.
So big appreciation to you.
Do you have any other thoughts or last pieces you want to get in front of the audience before we wrap up? No, I appreciate these questions. They're all thoughtful all the time.
And I appreciate your time too. I always enjoy these sessions. Thanks.
Always a pleasure. Dan, appreciate you as well and all the amazing speakers we had on the
conversation. If you're in the audience, highly recommend you guys follow these speakers. It'll
make your timeline better.
And follow that Wolf Financial account up here
that's co-hosting with me.
That's where CryptoFit,
our boy that was just up here,
is going to be doing the Thursday show
at 2 p.m. Eastern tomorrow.
So if you guys want more talk about income,
definitely head over that tomorrow.
And that's why we're in the chat.
Well, it's a little back.
Well, everybody hanging out.
More call chatting.
So, it's about you guys want to know more about those.
Let's do it.
Spaces today, I threw the link for the YouTube stream directly up top.
So, if anybody wants to join us live over there,
that's where we're going to be hanging the rest of the day.
But for everybody else,
we'll see you guys bright and early back on Spaces tomorrow morning.
And if you missed any of the conversation that you want to listen back to,
this conversation is recorded.
So as soon as I end it here, you can go back, listen to any pieces that you may have missed.
And yeah, we're going to finish it off on the stream.
So we'll see everybody there.
Have a great rest of the day.
We'll see everybody else tomorrow.
Peace out, y'all. Thank you.
