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YIELDMAX WEEKLY DEEP DIVE!!
Recorded: April 1, 2026 Duration: 3:57:43Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Good morning, Spaces crew. good morning spaces crew
it's been wednesday everybody
oh look at bully's already up here
what's up bully
gosh what time is it there over uh
over on the other side of the world
i don't even
it is 9 p.m my friend
oh my gosh that That's crazy.
That's got to be fun, trading U.S. markets like that.
Bro, I enjoy it.
Love it.
Well, good morning, everybody.
Welcome back.
We're back with another day.
Wednesday, already halfway through the week.
Gosh, the past two weeks have been just, like, flying by.
I feel like last week was so quick.
Went from Monday to Friday so fast, I felt like.
But markets right now holding green so far.
We're up another half percent on the futures.
And Q and ES right now, it looks like silver is down a little bit.
Gold is holding up, though, up a percent and a half this morning.
Crude oil is down a bit and uh pretty much my whole
watch list is green except for poor little netflix but it's only it's only red a little bit so um
looking like a pretty good morning out there so far although just looking at nq this morning
seeing some of the levels we swapped out this morning i would like to see us maybe trade a
little bit lower going into the morning session but but we'll see what we're offered.
Doesn't look like we moved too crazy in the middle of the night.
Like there were definitely some moves, but it looks like it was made a quick higher high real quick and then I just came back into the range.
So nothing too crazy. I'm hoping we see some further good moves in the New York session here.
You got anything you're looking at right now, Bully?
I just opened my watch list.
Let's see what's going on in the pre.
Oh, yeah. What's up heaven good morning yeah nugty three times leverage gold is up five percent issue in the pre oh yeah light bridge ltbr
up four um you have the semiconductor uh three times bull, S-O-X-L, up roughly 4%, 3.5.
What else is going on here?
Some optics names, AAOI up 3% in the pre.
Other gold names, AEM.
And then let's see what this is.
What's Nike doing? I know they had
earnings.
Morning, morning.
Morning.
Yeah, Nike got a lot of
down points. So my assumption,
I saw it down like 8% last night.
A little bit lower here.
My guess is down 11%.
What is it?
Oh, down 12%.
I was close.
Looking steep there.
Nike got a couple analysts downgrades this morning
off of their earnings yesterday.
I saw Bank of America downgraded it to neutral from buy.
$55 price target now.
President Trump also put out a true social post.
Iran's new regime president has asked the United States for a ceasefire.
You'll only consider it when the Australian news is open.
He had a couple more threats in there, but that is the base of it saying,
I don't know who he's saying Iran's president is,
everything like that,
but he's saying that the ceasefire conversations
are going on, that came out in the last 8.44 a.m.
Eastern, it's like 20 minutes ago.
There's a story that Intel has agreed to buy back the 49% stake in one of its Irish fabs that it made.
$14.2 billion is how much they're spending
to buy it back from Apollo Global.
Apollo Global bought it for $11.2 billion in 2024.
So two years, I put $3 billion.
What is that?
A 20% gain or something?
But I mean, we're talking large numbers.
So Apollo Global getting $14.2 billion from Intel.
Intel buying back a 49% equity interest in one of its joint ventures.
Everyone seems to be happy, I guess.
Visa launching a bunch of new tools, AI tools to help modernize things and fight credit card charges.
We'll see there.
We had some ADP jobs numbers this morning.
ADP US April private employment rises 62,000,
above expectations of 41,000.
I know macro data points can be a little weird
on the number coming in above.
So is that good?
Like for inflation, you want the number below.
I'm fairly certain for this job once you wanted it above.
I don't really look at ADP that much.
But yeah, that came in at 62,000, above expectations of 41,000.
Microsoft saying they're going to invest 5.5 billion into Singapore we had Tesla
registrations for March came in across Europe and they were actually up pretty
aggressively 203 percent year-over-year growth for Tesla registrations in France
in March now obviously straight up Hermes or like oil gas all
those conversations are picking it up but I know there's I'm sure a lot of
disdain in Europe for Elon Musk and probably Tesla is a byproduct of that so
even the Europeans are coming in and buying Elon Musk's product here so that
came out this morning Tesla's Q1 deliveries worldwide should be out I
think tomorrow morning expect to tomorrow morning yeah tomorrow morning
is when I believe they should get normally they don't do it the day after
the court they do it like a couple days after US mortgage rates in the US climb
for the fourth straight week up up to 6.57 percent of the average highest level
since August.
So if you're refinancing, maybe you want to wait.
Robinhood Banking yesterday said their deposits climbed over $1.5 billion.
That was a Vlad Tenev tweet.
Late at night, there was another story that the United Arab Emirates is reportedly planning to help the United States and other allies
open the Strait of Hormuz by force.
I saw other conflicting reports this morning that maybe was backing it up, but it does
seem like the UAE is one of the people taking a step in the direction or a thought process
of maybe going to do that.
I also did pin up in the nest above.
The Wolf team puts out like a little stock deep dive research report every single week
on some different stocks.
We got a really impressive quant.
He's going to come in here.
We call him the quant.
I don't know if it's the actual term, but this guy's doing some really cool stuff.
And there's a tweet pinned up on the net above with this week's reading of it.
It was about this week's deep dive.
That company called First Cash.
But every single Monday, we're putting out a little deep dive report going into it.
Could lead to some interesting trading opportunities for you guys, but that's free
You gotta sign up for it and keep end up in the next above should be a good day though
I'm excited. Yes, sir. I put out a little April Fool's Joker the wolf trading camp put out a little April Fool's joke
There will be the live streaming. I see Ryan down below. There will be a live stream to it
You got a nice one. You gotta a little uh do a little april fool's
you know what's not getting april fools restoration hardware down 23 percent on
23 is is quite uh thickens for a 130 dollar stock
It is quite thickens for a $130 stock.
Wow.
Down to $107 from $139 yesterday.
Damn.
That's not good.
Yeah, that's definitely not good.
Morning, Stocks.
Good morning.
How are we doing today?
Have a great day, sir.
We're already halfway through the week.
Wow, pretty quick week i'm done well it's even yeah it's even shorter too and i was gonna say we're not halfway through the week but we actually are now you're right
because there's no market on friday i saw the graphic that ryan put out and then i realized
after wow there is no market on friday good thing we didn't plan anything for it yeah it's kind of weird another note we haven't had a three-day weekend on that
lulu is another stock that's down in the pre what's that lulu lulu i consulted with my financial advisor, my girlfriend, and I asked her what her opinion is on Lulu.
And she said I would not wear it.
And most people are shifting away from it.
They're all wearing like aloe now.
Everyone's wearing aloe, bro.
That's the new thing.
And then other smaller brands.
Skims.
Lulu's dead.
Dude, why can't we trade skims in the market instead of lulu
unfortunate that would ah i actually doesn't skims have some deal with nike or what was it it does
yeah so but like i don't know you don't want to buy nike yeah nike is nike Skims is Skims.
Yeah.
We just need a Skims ticker.
It's only Skims.
No Nike attached necessarily.
We need Crocs to save the market.
Oh my gosh.
What's Crocs been doing?
It's not been amazing, but... It has not.
It's just in this giant time frame range.
That's the problem.
Yes, yes.
I'm looking on a monthly and it looks like a freaking four-hour chart.
Yeah, that's exactly what it looks like.
That's a problem.
I got into this one small cap this week.
It was Agro.
Agro, that one had a pretty nice setup. Small cap this week. It was aggro. Aggro.
That one had a pretty nice setup.
Just broke out.
Yep.
Thanks.
We can always count on Bully to give us some of these tickers that are just like I would never find.
If you want some random tickers, I got you, brother.
No, I love it.
We need that.
We need some more of that in the spaces here.
Yeah, if you go on my page, I used to post a lot more setups, but I'm going to get back
into it just because I was doing a pretty big move in my life this past month or so.
Yeah, bro.
I'll get back to the charts, man.
I'll throw some good stuff out there.
Yeah, it's a huge move you made for sure.
Not easy to do yes sir
I'm stoked
it's crazy
thanks man
on another note Marvel had a
Bali
you want to live like a king
yes sir
beach bum life
but yeah as I was saying,
Marvel had a pretty good earnings
bouncing off the weekly.
The weekly 20s also rising.
Watch that breakout over 100
for potential continuation on a shorter term.
It's showing a lot of strength.
Also, there was a pretty nice recovery
on NBIS yesterday.
Data centers got a lot of heat.
But yeah, overall situation isn't too good.
I'd say I think there's a lot of volatility in the market.
I mean, even now, but there are good runners.
It's nice to take opportunities short term and use it to build the longer term positions.
You know, not necessarily just long, but having a balanced portfolio in this kind of environment is super important.
Right.
Especially finding things that fit within the macro themes that are not necessarily mainstream.
the macro themes that are not necessarily mainstream so for example if
you're thinking of an oil trade versus a fertilizer trade where the fertilizer
names aren't as crowded as oil names you get better pricing on premiums through
the actual options chains and the moves are slightly smoother especially the
ones with like the smaller market caps they they go crazy. They go crazy.
That's the note for me today.
I love it.
Get this set up.
All right, NQ, what do we got here?
I haven't really taken a closer look.
We have the gap a bit lower at this 760. I would love to see us potentially try and retest.
We just ran through an hourly gap to the downside up here,
just trying to switch order flow on the hourly.
So I'm going to be expecting Londonondon low and asia low gets traded two into the open we'll see if things change at all but that's what i'm going to expect at first
things have been really bullish for sure over this past few hours from yesterday.
But I would like to see a bit of a pullback on this market,
maybe caption shorts.
ASTC, big mover, astrotech.
percent in the pre-market yeah hook
It was up the past two days and up another 13% in the pre-market. Yeah.
Hook.
okay
or did stanley lowers price target to 240 on rh 40 on RH.
Fastly, super nice trend.
Bounced off the daily 20 yesterday and pushed into a nice trend.
Continuation above the 5MA.
Gold this morning just really what's your opinions on on uh what's that peptide what's your opinion on peptides on that's hilarious on a u.s stance dude i met a bunch of people here that they're
running like bs health clinic type things where they're just exporting peptides
to everyone and i don't know it just seems sus what's your take i i take peptides every day um
well haven't been like the past month or so since i moved to puerto rico because they're a little
harder to get down here but uh i'll be getting them again but um long story short i love them
here but uh i'll be getting them again but um long story short i love them and i don't know
how i feel about uh fda like lifting some of the shit on it because it's just gonna make
it more expensive honestly and probably like all the scores they're gonna change it they'll change
it up literally just to poison people what was that i'm like they'll literally change it up literally just to poison people. Wait, what's that?
I'm like, they'll literally change it up and you won't get the same forms you're getting now.
Agreed.
Everything gets different when it goes through the FDA process.
Yeah, I'm not for it.
I'm really not.
But it is what it is.
I just hope prices don't skyrocket right now.
I'll get multiple different...
Is there going to be a specific producer of it?
Like Eli Lilly?
I don't think so.
I think it's going to be a while before we're there.
There's just too many companies.
There's too many websites you can go on
and just order the shit to your house.
It's too easy.
Give me five minutes.
I'm going to use AI to find the correlation on peptides and stocks
and which one's the closest.
Yes, yes.
But, yeah, it's pretty easy to go on and just, like, order it.
And it's cheap, like you can get good stuff
for inexpensive right now,
depending on what your idea of inexpensive is.
But I would say it's very inexpensive compared to what,
what GLP ones are selling and all the shit out there it's outrageous how we doing this morning doing good brother i guess we're starting the morning
off hot with some peptide talk you know oh yeah baby dude i believe i believe your april fool's
post for like half a second.
Oh, yeah.
If nobody saw my April Fool's post on my personal,
that was pretty funny.
You should go check it.
Yeah.
I know that would get some people just for a split second.
Then you like click into it and you'll see my post below it.
I was like, I spoke to him yesterday.
Wolfie, I got you right here.
Ready?
These are the top correlated ones.
It's Novanordisk, Lily, Viking Therapeutics, VKTX.
Makes sense. You have CPGR, ALT, and then you also have, from the bigger ones, Amgen, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca.
Interesting.
AZM.
Yeah, actually, Pfizer's setup looks really nice on the weekly.
Look at that one.
Haven't looked at Pfizer in a while.
It is good again.
It's cooking.
It's cooking. Come on Come on bro leave it to bully
Leave it to bully
There's the goat
We got eight minutes till open
I'm lowkey kind of bearish this morning
I can't lie
We swapped out London high
Maybe we need to go kind of sweep that range again
I wouldn't see why.
The only thing I don't really love
is we're not really delivering
from a higher time frame gap here,
which is kind of an issue for me.
I'd still expect lower.
I guess we have this 15-minute gap we just tapped into,
as long as we're sweeping these highs
and staying relatively weak in this area.
I can look for London lows, Asia lows.
If we get over 105.50, I'm going to have to change my thoughts.
Yeah.
I'm kind of in the middle of the road.
Yeah, just a weird-looking morning going in.
I'm ready for it.
Yeah, I think between like 160 and where we are right now,
we could just chop.
And then break either one of those levels and we'll trend a bit to either Asia Low or the previous high.
I feel like a big dog now because I got some new squawk in my ears.
Let's go.
Nice.
Shout out to Evan.
Thanks, Evan. new squawk in my ears let's go nice shout out evan thanks evan
yeah what if we just continue it's also a good possibility
100 105 yeah it really is like i mean like dude if you look at the universe of stocks, it's a relatively strong overall regime over this past literal, I don't know, 48 hours.
Yeah.
Like the actual distribution of stocks.
So if you take a look at yesterday, we closed at 4,772 advancing stocks versus only 1,572 declining.
Of that number of advancers, there were more 2% to 5% gainers than there were less than 2% gainers.
There was 1,638 2% to 5% gainers and 1,563 that were less than 2%.
So that's really really really bullish
i mean i would love for us to see a flush to get an opportunity to long it yeah that's really what
i would like to see like i don't i don't think we buck this trend that we've started so far like
instantly i just more want to see a little shorty to to retest some areas to really be like interested in i think just as term of like trend structures and the way we've been trading
that move down that we're expecting we need to see an overnight gap to support it you know rather
than actually just holding up and continuing a little bit higher i think uh just shifts the statistics a little bit.
24K is a huge gamma level on the DAC.
And the way that the flip lines are moving on ES,
there's more negative accumulation,
which indicates trend.
Not really in any direction, but indicates trend.
We're still positive gamma, though.
MU quite strong in the pre.
Shifting up 4% and pushing right before the open.
Heads up.
Got foul minutes.
Let's go.
Let's see what we got.
Um, why wouldn't let me send this?
Come on, Ax.
Stop screwing with me.
Boom. is that casey good morning good morning good morning what's up dude what? What's up?
How we doing?
Good, good. How are you guys doing this morning?
I'm doing fantastic.
Just amazing.
Boom!
Just amazing.
Let's go.
Have a wonderful day.
What's up, Casey? What's up, Evan?
What's up, what? What's up, Evan? What's up?
What's up?
The XOM 165 puts are in the money.
160s did just hit first big target downside,
so we got a nice payday yesterday on these.
I'm going to be trimming out majority here at the open
and just being runners.
Very nice.
Three minutes to open here.
Gold is still just
holding up. Love to see
that. That was my weekly
pick for the contest.
How much is GDx you up from yesterday's
open 24 oh my gosh if we hold i better take the dub and i also did shiny shny what a great
name for an etf um that is that is tough it is up about 10.8%. So, oh, we're just cooking.
I want that gold medal.
Our boy Will has been killing it on the stock picks.
I need to get back on the podium.
He's come in and kind of just dominated all of us a little bit on that competition.
So, I got to take back. So I got to take back,
you know,
I got to take back the crowd.
The VIX is at a 25.
It was below it,
came back above it a bit.
City Bay down, downgrades ppg to neutral lowers price target to 113
this looks like a little bit out of the gate to like 140s maybe i don't know what we'll do
after that but that's what it looks like so far just a flat i want to see if we respect this 15
minute gap or not 105 50 if it gets ran through to the upside that means
we're just disrespecting that area and this can go higher um if we respect this i'm going to look
for shorts down to london low and hlo that's crazy we're looking at the same level for different Love it. Isn't that so cool? It is. It really is.
Market opens here in 15 seconds.
Good morning.
Good morning.
How you doing?
Oh, de good. Let's go away.
Do I have any clear like gaps to the inverse no i think i do
oh all right a little a little dumpy dump this it's this gap here on the five minute
yeah so he's dropped into a little five minute gap out of this 15 minute. We're trying to respect that 15 minutes.
So it's either we respect that and run through this five minute and I'll maybe try shorts
or it flips here and tries to get over that 105.50.
Let's see.
Okay, let's see. I tried it at uh 24 0074 poc and vwap
five minute gap flows we're respecting this five minute interesting we're just stuck between
five minute spot and that 15 minute spot.
One of them's got to give.
Looks like it might be the five minute.
Makes sense.
Lower time frame.
Will it allow me an entry though and not just tank to target on this one candle?
That's the question Google's still rising.
That was a strong one yesterday too.
Amu with a pop?
Running that. running that yes looks much stronger
than today here so far
um i didn't even read off what we have on the economic calendar for this morning but we do
have ism manufacturing pmi at 10 a.m
we had retail sales this morning and adp non-farm employment change which came out decently higher than the forecast retail sales were higher than forecast as well
gotcha Gotcha.
I'm just going to wait a few minutes, let this play out, see what the market wants to
do, and then make so much money.
Make so much money.
But so far, bounce there.
Already up 85 points.
Yep, nice bounce.
Trying to run through that area that I talked about.
Should be in the most recent highs at 840.
Could get tapped into.
IW, I'm looking for short, 252 to 253.
There's a small gap on SPX to the upside that still needs to be filled around 6592. Crude oil trying to come in a bit.
Slipped down 1.8%.
True.
INTC is ripping. INTC ripping IGV is actually
weak which is the tech
software sector
that's interesting
again Google is strong
Google is up there
Google AMD Google, AMD.
Google and AMD are the only things at highs right now.
For the big names.
INT's ripping because they announced a definitive agreement for
Intel to repurchase 49% equity interest in the joint venture related to Intel's 534 in Ireland.
It entails 534 in Ireland.
Walmart opened up breaking the four hour trend line.
They're trading in the daily gap here. Nothing burned me up. Nike's dropping even more
down 13%.
Nike's down 13%.
Yeah, dude.
Ernie.
Piece of shit stock.
And lots of downgrades.
It's rough out there. Tough out there, fair game.
Mm-hmm.
Steady pivot ain't easy.
All right, all right.
We trying to rip.
We may... looks like we'll open up a new 5 minute cap, that'll be my new line in the sand. Qualcomm getting a bounce into the open here
google's ripping as well holding while core we're ripping it's google and amd for the big
names that are yeah really good oh well meta too actually better meta meta meta Meta Meta Meta Meta Meta Meta Meta Meta Meta Meta
Meta Meta
Meta Meta
Meta Meta
Meta Meta
Meta Meta
Meta Meta
Meta Meta
Those are the three
Big Papas
Big Papas
I'm looking for
a cable up in this
area at 296
I love it when you
call me
Big Papas
Big Papas
IWM I I want to...
252 to 253.
AMD, I'm still watching.
I'm going to stop some softening on my short.
I got a stop and profit right there.
Smartphone market is bracing for a potential 31% slump in shipments over the coming year,
which affects Qualcomm, Apple.
Okay, I started five minute gap. If we tap into that and I get a setup,
I can play longs to this internal high we have at 245,
245 840 eastern high
840 Eastern high.
i want to short it here again i can do a five minute camera
whoa roma green finance down really bad
really bad down 12 percent after
tanking red for like a week straight it's down it's down 71 from its most recent high that's bad
that's bad that's really bad. It is no good, sir.
Alright, five minute gap open.
This is a clear condition for me.
Either we drop down
or we drop through.
Good morning.
Oh no. We're gone soon. Good morning. Mink.
Morning.
Oh no. We're gone soon.
We're gonna be gone soon.
He's lagging.
I'm lagging?
Yeah. You're a little robotic guys it's great training with you this morning I'll see
in an hour when Jordy comes back don't you worry now don't you worry oh he's back he's back
before is that am i still lagging for me uh i don't know it's kind of a bit better
let him cook hold up let him cook so now nQ's dropping, and D's still going down.
Alright, should be better now.
Oogie.
Yeah, no, you're good.
I mean, you sound good.
Get all refreshed.
My engine showed bullish.
I'm actually just waiting for an entry to go long.
I'm actually just waiting for an entry to go long.
Okay.
Gonna go long.
Should have probably waited for a better entry, but...
Looking for something similar.
I want to see us drop to this 135.
Microsoft pulling back. I want to see us drop to this 135. Mark us off.
Pull him back.
What the hell is this?
Why get any setup here?
Dumpy, dumpy candles.
Let's see if we respect this area
and run through it.
We just got minxed.
Yeah, we did. I got minxed too.
Shit.
But I have a hard stop loss of 70 ticks.
And thankfully, it was only on one account.
I moved fast.
That was a bad entry.
That was a big fucking job.
And we're still going a little bit.
Okay, AMD,
I'm trimming here.
Sorry, what's the Iran things?
It must be.
I'll look in a second.
Straight won't reopen
based on Trump's absurd displays.
Didn't we know that?
Isn't that the whole reason that the conflict would end i'm not even trying to be political isn't that just the headlines yeah yeah that is crazy three point where it's cold
i like how they play with these um headlines around the open, right on the market, you know?
Oh, yeah.
Gotta love it.
Absolutely.
Looks like we're running through this area.
Oh, they're fucking nuking it.
I might.
Yeah.
They're gonna.
Getting short of it.
And there's Google Regestion right around that 296.
Pull him back.
Oh, we're at
the other day there.
IWM hit
pre-market high to the penny.
AMD's up 33%
here on my runners.
I'm just going to close
them out there.
Reminder, Trump speaks at 9 p.m. tonight. I know that really doesn't mean much intraday, but...
Let's see if we reject 108.
Microsoft is very weak.
Or not.
See. Oh, is this a reload spot for Schmitz?
Looks like it.
Yeah, potentially.
Just ran through that five minute gap.
I got to expect London Asian lows now.
So I do like the short to there.
It's a big risk right now, though, in terms of points.
So my size has to be down. some calls coming in on Dell.
Yesterday I mentioned a sweep underneath 157 down to 155. Daily trend line stock is up about $10 or $11 off that low.
Push it back up to a 170.
Some 172.5 calls coming in for tomorrow.
Nice. I want to enter a short, but Jesus.
Hold the mute off a bit.
Apple popping up still.
Is it?
Okay, I'm short.
Oh my god.
Yeah, I got short at 24-100, but... Casey.
Looking for a 1-1, or 1-1-1.
Y'all?
Dude.
Dude.
He's mega long from 10 minutes ago.
Dude, what the shit
right on the drop
holy fuck
foreign minister of Iran said only
they will
find the future of the Strait for Miss.
Looks like that's why the market might be coming in.
I have targets at London low.
Could go all the way to Asia.
I'm going break even at New Loa Day.
Look at the Missy Elliott bot already trying to send some stuff out this morning.
What you doing, girl?
Sit down. What you doing, girl? Sit down.
What you doing, girl?
I have to...
I gotta change it to when the candlestick closes, but Missy Elliott sending out some alerts already this morning.
Docu for a sell for a move downside this morning.
Adobe also a sell.
What else
is she looking at?
MasterCard
MA was a sell.
Feds
Masalem says if Iran war ends in two
weeks,
I'd be looking for lingering risk premiums.
I would be looking for echoes from conflict and tighter financial conditions.
She's trying to trigger a buy right now on Honeywell.
Come on, let me go break even.
Honeywell, wonderful company.
Was that Evan? What did you say, Evan? I was just saying Honeywell, wonderful company Was that Evan? What did you say Evan?
I was just saying Honeywell
Honeywell
KC, shout out, beautiful company
Nothing about it right now, more in the long term
Yeah
Great company, great stock
Get your thermostat and your intercontinental ballistic missile in the same place
hell yeah
that's a company
that gets my vote 10 times out of 10
take your PIAF
that's just pure America
if you ask me
nothing more American than that
nothing more American than that.
Ooh, Western Digital.
Watch for a short right here, but stocks up like 8.5%. percent I need NQ to drop to 24,000, 36.25 to be able to go break even on this trade, and then
I'm happy.
I could care less what happens after.
Disney stocks.
24,000 watts.
That's in a big move.
23,000.
Or 24,036, sorry.
If we pop up here and run through
135.75,
I'll probably get stopped.
Okay. and run through 135.75. I'll probably get stopped. Because the volatility is higher though,
and technically my risk is pretty big in terms of points,
I had to go quite small on the contracts, not really risking the amount I'd want to.
So it is a bit of a lighter trade.
It's a better trade.
Can't really risk another contract.
It's just too much risk on this by the way if you're in the audience and you're enjoying the show this morning make sure you guys
repost the spaces like the spaces here follow all the panelists that join us every single morning
and let's go do thoughts yes absolutely follow the work it's a great morning
let's see if we can make some money up for you prop firm people too it seems like all these
prop firms are doing their discounts thingies right now there are so many I'm gonna make a
full post about it here uh here in a little bit for everybody so keep watch on the timeline but
right now 40 off trade if I uh was 50 off vanquish for any of the options traders out there that want to trade on prop
um what was it 90 off at apex right now it's just it's there's a ton of deals right now so
alpha futures we never talk about that one yeah alpha is 50 off i think that's the first 50
off they've ever ran highest has been 30 i'm pretty sure in the past testing my defense on this short we have a
five minute gap that if we run through then i mean we just shouldn't be doing that if we're
going to hold this short and continue lower and go in my favor here we shouldn't be able to run
through that so if we do um i might end up closing my position a little early for
a much smaller loss than what I would take here.
If we respect it, that's ideal.
Well, we're going to chop, so I'm just going to wait. Yeah, and that's what it'll really tell me too if we run through this area is like, well,
if plenty of gaps we just like ran through,
if we are just running through back and forth,
each one is telling me this area is just inefficient.
I probably shouldn't be trying to press it too hard here,
but I mean, clearly respecting five minutes so far,
we have about 30 seconds until it closes.
As long as we can hold under this.
I think I still like this.
Back to break even on my position right here.
Slow open, though.
Not really getting efficiency in one direction yet
closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed closed respecting not just respecting but like body couldn't even close within that gap which i do like
only a wick
i just need some clear displacements i can go break even
not seeing it I just need some clear displacements. I can go break even.
Not seeing it.
Trying to hold this 84.
Come on, just lose that.
Yeah, I'm still watching here.
ISM manufacturing PMI is about to come out in five minutes.
Google new highs.
I don't mind holding through this given that this trade
is just such low risk in dollar value.
Google about to hit the 21 EMA on the daily.
This data could come out and stop me out very quickly, though.
We'll see.
Yeah, data on four.
Yeah, I'm fine with the risk, though.
Again, the risk in terms of points is about 83 points on this trade,
which means I had to go really small in terms of contracts.
And the exact contract amount that I'm trading doesn't...
I want to add one more, but if I add one more,
then I go a little too far over what I'm willing to risk on a trade so I'm technically risking even
less than I would I'd rather risk less than more I'm fine with that I can always find another trade
to risk properly on on. Trying to push higher here. A little bit.
Yeah, back to testing that five-minute spot.
I really want us to get away from that.
And that we will.
The Model S and X from Tesla have officially come to an end.
True.
True. True.
True.
Who wants my Matalax?
Hmm.
Not doing nothing
little little slow into the open house gold gold holding not continuing though crude oil
continuing to the downside a little bit this morning that's it's actually good for the market, which is kind of bad for me, being in a short.
Data in less than one minute here.
Let's see what we get.
Baby.
Memory names doing super well today.
MU, SanDisk.
SanDisk is up 7.
MU is up 5.
And you also have VI AV pushing at 7%. Those things are super strong. 52.3 is expected on the ISM manufacturing here.
Okay.
52.7 versus 52.3.
Pretty muted reaction, so far.
Nothing too crazy.
We're holding.
It looks like it might just go up.
Might run through my defense against Longs here.
Testing this gap for the third time now.
Still respecting it.
Ooh.
So we need to break above 140,
which was the
950 high.
If that happens, then we go higher yeah we are muted and possibly yellow but we could do that here in the next few minutes 140 is a big spot Over 140
Running through this gap so far
Dude, talk about shrink
Those MU's and Sandus are just going off a bean
Ridiculous, oh my gosh
They're going off a bean right now
are they ripping let's see i don't just come out with a little bit oh yeah they're ripping
iran says they would welcome russia as a mediator okay
If we can pull back to like 110,
115 and hold, I'm going to look for a long. Oh. Well, that gets stopped.
My engine says bullish.
I hate taking longs. I hate them.
I love them. I just don't up here right now i need to find a way to
like have my chart inversed yeah every time about trade higher you just just gotta flip that chart
makes you i know i'm not joking i need to like figure out i know that there's a way on trading
me but i don't know how to do it you know you could do you could you can save a different like layout that has your colors completely
reversed like for candlesticks and the chart flip so whenever you want to trade long you just click
to that layout and it's actually the chart flipped but but the colors are normal. Green candles are still up candles.
Red candles would be down candles still.
You could do that.
That's actually huge.
That's the move.
Somebody said Alt plus 1.
That might be the shortcut for it.
It might be different depending on if you're on Mac or PC.
That flips it upside down.
That much of candles stay the same color.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Let's see.
Alt.
What was that thing again?
Alt.
And then I.
Oh, thanks.
Thanks, Joe.
Yep.
There it is.
Now I just got to flip the colors of the candles. So I don't like, uh, I don't know. I'm still short. I messed it is. Now I just got to put the colors of the candles so I don't mess it up.
My stop is 187.50. It's only about $188 risk on six accounts though i usually like to risk 250 per account but if i add another contract it's too
much so this might take me out at the highs dude those sandis contracts are going crazy holy look
at that yeah bro I bought them like
down here right off the open. I'm up 70%
on them so far, 75.
The ones that expire tomorrow, the 675s.
I've been in this trade for too long. Got any other individuals?
Cook and Rocket Lab up 3%.
And there.
Ooh, ooh.
BA is up 4%.
What's going on that one BA
I don't know if I saw any news really
Catching a bid though
Catching a bid
Coming in a bit.
Hmm.
Do they save me?
I don't know.
I'm drinking the 156.
Same spot with respect to the downside.
We're now trying to hold to that side.
I don't like that.
There they go. Run.
Just need a nice.
Entry.
That's all. Until at the highs flying 4767 here.
It's up 8%. I'm going to go ahead and get my stop loss.
Will that be 1,100? All right. are Ian acts ripping a hundred percent on those sand discs now wolfie it's up nine and a half
percent new Heidi go huge that is amazing yeah sanders just filled filled filled a little gap that we had there as well
in the daily chart nice
seven hundreds today come on seven bucks she can do it
already an x sub 90. I hear that right 90 percent Thank you. Raymond James analyst upgrades Disney to the IS. I'm speaking at 9pm tonight
I'll be right back in like two minutes
I heard that
all the Asia Sessions degens
ready for a little spicy evening I'll be right back in like two minutes. Heard that. All the Asia session degens.
Ready for a long entry. Natsi, do you have any spreads in this? These wicks are annoying. Of course, it's going to start to...
My Wi-Fi is being questionable this morning. We're alive.
We got you.
Runners only on.
XOM.
New lows.
162 break.
Let's go, Casey.
Market rangy.
Slow morning.
Gosh. All right. Excellent. I'm dumping here. I'm going to take one off here at $660.
660 bucks.
Nice.
Nice.
Next target is just 160 for those
supposed to get in the money for
May expiration. Plenty of time.
Yeah, oil's still drilling.
That's good for the market here.
Yeah, the
barcoding sucks.
Yeah.
Come on. There it goes. God.
There's my stop.
All right, I'm out there.
Can I scale some out?
Give me a day is like really hyper scalpy type of day.
176 times six.
$1000 scrape. $1,000 scrape. uh jordy that boeing news was um yeah what was that jesus christ i can't talk right now
they got a contract with the administration to help triple production capacity of the PAC-3 missiles.
Gotcha.
That came out this morning at 8.40. And I think that yesterday it was same thing as a little bit.
I'm going to use the same thing as a little bit.
I'm going to use the same thing as a little bit.
I'm going to use the same thing as a little bit. Thank you. He's back.
Hello, how are you?
There he is. God bless you. Sandisk and MU are ripping and dripping.
So, do we break the highs here, fellas?
You gotta get over over Valley Area High.
180s.
Sandisk got 700.
Just hit it.
Oh, Sandisk.
Oh, buddy.
Oh, buddy. Your boy Bull bull shark is so paid on this
i'm actually looking for a possible short here like 702 on it 703
would be a day trade only though not a swing hey if they drop it here I may not even get it. Fuck.
These sniffles.
Allergies, allergies, allergies.
Fuck me. I don't know where Will is at this morning, but I know he's probably paid big as well on XOM.
Oh, yeah.
Because we went short at the exact same time. The chart is at the top of spaces there. That'll show the entry point where it rejected that zone. And both of us were
looking at how the daily was forming for that short and wanted to see that pullback on these
stocks and with oil and full extension downside here about to hit absolute full target for me.
But these contracts are up huge with plenty of time.
INTC, new high day again, 48 bucks.
Fine. Hi.
Hey, Google.
I'm in a short here. 295 puts for tomorrow expiration hey i am too
oh shit you know what that means i didn't take tomorrow expiration i took april 6th but
there's dude there's no volume on these freaking contracts they move so weird
we are stuck at the 21 on the daily. Funny enough, at that level, I actually have a resistance there.
I do as well on the four hour.
Oh, yeah.
And then on smaller timeframes, two, three, five.
Higher high.
We actually just got a lower high in the past few minutes.
It's very little, but we're starting to kind of curl.
Yes, we could possibly still go up, but this is a good spot for me to definitely take a short.
I mean, we're up $7 on the day, or $6 on the day, sorry, from the open.
Santisk, if we get to my $7 703, I may look for a short here.
We're at 702 right now.
And NQ pushing higher.
I'm mainly just chart watching right now.
We had a huge run-up yesterday,
and I'm still leaning more bullish than bearish overall,
but I don't see SPY going above.
I think full extension today would be like 660, 661 if it happens,
but I'm expecting a lot of chop and tire range until probably after lunchtime
crude oil inventory is coming in here at 10 30.
okay there it is i didn did realize I was on mute.
Iran foreign ministry spokesperson says,
Trump's statements about Iran requesting a ceasefire are false and baseless.
You don't say.
Doesn't sound ideal.
My stoploss is on runners.
Yeah, Trump's going to be pulling a lot of April Fool's jokes today.
Tempest AI stock is jumping this morning.
Wait, 210 there.
Let's see what else do we have here.
Jordan, Tempest is like that meme where it goes down so much and it goes up.
Like, let's go.
Right.
Right here.
So we can do this. Google going higher.
Depending on where this goes, I may stop out.
Sandisk, I think I'm going to try my short here at 7.03.
Set an alert on this XOM so I don't miss it.
Bit nice down a little bit lower.
Got all sectors green except for energy is down.
Oh, my God.
Let's go.
Energy sector is down 4%.
Oh, is it really? Energy sector is down 4%.
Oh, is it really?
Oh, yeah.
You got DVN down 2%. Oxy is down 2%.
XOM obviously is going down.
CVX.
This was perfect.
We talked about Oxy for the short up in that $67 to $68 area.
I think XOM probably printed a little bit better return, but Oxy is pulling back down
to $OM. Nice pullback.
Looks like the Sandus short would have worked.
I'm too busy looking at Google.
Let's see if Sandex goes up a little bit again.
Look at these spy five minute candles just all chilling right here at this midpoint.
we are in a 5 and 15 minute squeeze
but they're diverging
yucky
Google is going higher here
watching that
dude I made so much money on that
Sandisk long
Marvel and Viab at the same time.
They just paid Sword.
Yeah, Sandisk over that 700 now.
Yeah, that's going to be a nice day.
I had the 675s, and then I rolled them all the way up to 705,
and they're still ripping.
Darn.
That's how we do it.
Almost 9,000 on the day.
Huge.
It's a big day, baby.
Gold coming in.
Got some NBIS flow coming in.
Not much new gamma on es just like just just just just some shit you know yeah yeah no crazy spy stuck for 30 minutes now. Queues look slightly better.
IWM, nothing too crazy.
Ooh, JPM just sold off pretty hard.
So is Morgan Stanley, your banks, all banks taking a hit right now?
Bank of America pulling back a little bit.
A little bit on Wells Fargo.
Mainly JPM and Morgan Stanley both just had two larger five minute flush candles new lows. Thank you. stop Super shot
Next high is that
840 high this morning
Yeah
242-ish.
Yeah, I have 245 even.
That's how it is.
Yeah, 245.
All right, Google, time to die. my Google kind of die Okay. slow melt up, eh?
I see why it has a little bit more juice. Looks like. There she goes.
There we go.
Get it, Mingcy?
Mm-hmm.
Let's go. I did.
I told you guys I freaking hate longs it's like it stresses me out you guys
have no idea i don't know why it's like a ptsd now i know how rizzo feels when he shorts
Yeah, it's like the same thing for Rizzo on the opposite end.
yeah it's like the same thing for rizzo on the opposite end
Oh, God.
It's insane. Well, my engine didn't lie.
No one did not.
This thing is 92% hit rate, you guys, in this turmoil.
It's insane.
And I tried to fade it earlier.
That's even crazier. all right we're dropping a bit here
it's happening to us 50 minute gap we just opened up 153. nothing too crazy
that gap we just opened up 153.
Nothing too
crazy.
Yeah, there's a lot of buying
at 213s and it's failed.
Here we go.
Ooh.
I'm gonna call Crestbred right now. I'll look to make it
an iron condor. I'm gonna sell the calls first.
SPX, what'd you get?
What'd you get? What'd you get?
What'd you get?
KDZ.
Damn bastard. um
Tapping in the 15 minute gap.
Can we keep flushing it?
Let's see. Where's my Google app?
Ooh.
Yeah, baby.
Okay.
I sees you.
Google rejected the top of the zone so far.
Still watching.
I'm not going to sit in this one for too long, but I'm just looking for a 295 break and a selldown to closer to 294.
If it continues to chop here around this entry price, then I'll just
close them.
Yeah, I'm agreeing only
$12 a contract right now.
Nothing
crazy. I do want to see under
honestly, yeah,
$295. I'm going to go ahead and put it in the middle of the middle of the middle of the middle.
I'm going to go ahead and put it in the middle of the middle.
I'm going to go ahead and put it in the middle of the middle.
I'm going to go ahead and put it in the middle of the middle. Okay. Still crazy candles on JPM and Morgan Stanley with some volume.
Someone sent a headline saying that JPM CEO says that the bank is open to the possibility of entering prediction markets within the future.
It's the only thing I see there. Yeah, but I've fucked that up a little bit. it bouncing out of that 15 minute gap now so
All right, ladies and gentlemen, spaces.
It's time for me to get some breakfast on me.
Sounds goody, brother.
Good to see you.
You as well, brother.
Later.
See you guys later.
Peace out.
Ciao, ciao.
Looks like we're going to try and move higher out of that 50-minute gap.
Looking nice.
Oh, wow. Just. Oh, wow.
Just, oh, wow.
That's news for sure.
News!
What's the news?
It's gotta be news.
What's the news?
I wish we had a news guy.
Yeah, that guy's slacking. I have this walker in's slacking they're just saying it's up
nothing specific
I can do that job
guys market's going up here
yeah
they're just like yeah up
what's the news behind it
no idea but
moving a little bit higher here.
Back down.
Still don't see a headline anywhere.
I would think it was a headline.
I see one about Vice President and Vance,
but it doesn't really seem that significant.
What was that one?
Just says that he's been talking about the Iranian conflict.
Yeah, that wouldn't be anything crazy in my opinion.
Still didn't take out that 840 high there.
Got a tick away.
Straight has been renamed to the Straight of Trump.
Imagine.
Here's another headline.
Same thing about Vance.
Google weaker, by the way.
Sandisk weaker.
Oh, Google it.
Great. Google it.
Google it.
Google it.
That thing is juicy.
Depending on how this hourly candle closes in 18 minutes,
if Google does pull back down to 295,
I'm going to be full port short.
No, I'm just kidding.
Trump directed Vance to communicate privately
that he is open to a ceasefire
as long as certain U.S. demands are met,
including reopening the straight open.
This is nothing new.
But the other day he said,
we don't need the straight open.
Like, you're either saying the same shit another day or just contradicting yourself with another headline the day after.
And then you're going back to the original one and then doing it again on a Thursday.
Like, we live in a crazy timeline.
This is dumb.
You know, it's called confuse your enemies because you're confused.
It's called Confucius.
No, actually, I read something earlier today.
I thought it was hilarious.
It says, since he doesn't have a clue what he's talking about, what he's doing,
neither do all the enemies.
By the way, I'm trimming my Google puts.
Nothing crazy, but.
Mine are bouncing around. I'm trimming my Google puts. Nothing crazy, but...
Mine are bouncing around.
They go a few dollars green, a few dollars red,
or just setting your entry.
Yeah, I just trim for $17 a contract.
Again, nothing crazy, but... I don't know.
It's just, like, slow.
Mark is trying to lead up.
Still, kind of, I guess.
Who knows?
Nobody knows.
IWM, I mean, I think looks the best.
Out of three, Spike is an IWM.
It's the best.
It's the best.
Oh, did we just rip again? Yeah, it came down and dropped on that 15-minute gap.
Nice, nice spot.
And 150.
so just a random bike but no like true headline behind this
might have just been if oil got a little blip down. Top golf aluminum producer EGA halted smelter after Iran strike.
Yeah, I just saw that.
All right, guys.
I'm out of here.
I'll see y'all tomorrow.
Sounds good, Minksy.
See you tomorrow.
Bye, Minksy. See you tomorrow. Bye, Minx.
Bye, guys.
Here's Google 295.
Let's see if it can break this spot here
and let me get a little green day trade.
Other than that, if we just continue to chop or hold here i'm just
gonna sit on hands and go take a nap on my couch i don't know something better than office this
price yeah nice little nappy yeah the kids are gone for the day go take a nap there go kitties are on a field trip today huh yeah they with the the grandparents nice
go hang out over there for the day.
They set up an Easter egg hunt around their house outside for them.
Nice.
If you bought $1,000, ticker PGR, that's progressive, 20 years ago, it would be worth $7,599 today.
Let's go.
Oh, I'm green. Google. Let's go. Oh, I'm green Google.
He's greeneth.
Greeneth on the googly dooglies.
Googly doogly.
That dying doocy.
Thy portfolio shall end green today.
Ooh, nice shot.
$1,300.
Great job.
Great work.
Hell yeah.
For Google, make sure you put limit
orders in for these freaking contracts
just in case premiums spike, they'll
fill you.
Because they're popping right now.
They're a little
wonky. They're a little janky
nice job mc google profits let's go
put an alert over 190 on these contracts to safety trim this bullshit but
to safety trim this bullshit, but...
Discussions are taking place about a possible ceasefire
between the U.S. and Iran in return for the reopening of the street.
Three U.S. officials unclear if deal can be reached.
We'll rip it. You guys, say the same thing.
Just use different words. No.
Oh, there you go, Casey.
What?
294.50.
Yeah, I need a little bit more.
I need closer to 294 before I start.
More?
More?
More?
Bro, what?
What?
I am connected to the internet.
Bring it back.
I'm getting bored.
Oh, my gosh.
Are you joking?
Are you joking?
Internet's cooked. uh-huh got it
like i said wi- is being questionable this morning.
Ooh, another poppy poppy. Thank you. Intel new highs up over 10% today.
Dang.
About to take out intraday high on NQ.
That should let me go break, Ethan.
Okay. Let me go break Ethan. Thank you. SPX is almost at the gap, Phil. About $5 away. about five dollars away
stop me and break even
i just went flat on google by the way i'm bored MU is pumping.
370.
Actually hit 9 EMA
just right now.
Just hit the 9 EMA
right there. 370.13.
Indeed.
Indeed.
IWM Amazon new highs
AMD new highs
Come on
Cruise Line's popping up NCLH highs. Come on.
Cruise line's popping up.
NCLH.
Taking out the high there.
Instant rejection off that high.
This is the 840 high on NQ.
Finally took it. ES already took it earlier.
Beautiful longs out of that 15 minute gap I need this to run to 266
or else I get to stop the break even to
to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to here we go sending higher give me 266.75
happy
because my last trade I didn't go heavy enough.
Gap filled SPX.
Oh no, just give me a little bit more.
I have a daily level at 6595 and obviously 6600 is like right above
give me tp oh she's right there bro Don't do the diddly on me.
Just give me my one to one.
Yeah, still pushing. Thank you. Mm-hmm. Oh.
I might have been.
Alright, I'm in an iron contour right now on SPX. Give me the loot.
Give me the loot.
Just a little bit more, sir.
Light man. Crystal, Chris, still are...
Come on.
We hit 264.75.
I need 266.75. Okay. Tesla premarket high from premarket low. Meta's over free market high.
Meta's strong.
We like that.
Yeah, Meta's getting a nice candle right
now to the upside there you go
amazon just back tested pre-market high and folding
tp hit them all out there there you go jordan there we go
so spy didn't get the moves QQQ slightly getting
yeah yeah yeah Q's slightly shorter
what a weird morning
stopped out on the short to start it
and then
I took another short which worked out
but my dumbass
sized the wrong size contracts
because the wrist was much smaller there
but my dumbass clicked
so I like hit TP, but it was
like a quarter of the amount of contracts I should
have had on.
I got this
50-minute move. I have to be done. It's too much.
I'm over it.
I am keeping my hands
nice and warm right now.
Yeah, I'm going to be doing that the rest of the day.
Jordan's like, I was in that trade for way too long.
I was in the short for way too long.
I was in this long for way too long.
The only one that was quick was the second short I took.
I was in it for one two-minute candle,
which that was the best play I had all morning,
but I fucking took it
with one contract instead of five.
Pissed. Pissed.
Spy is still
between pre-market high and low.
We got her back.
We're green.
The six accounts are green
and I'm done God if I just sized that short properly
it would have been a really good morning
whatever we move on
yeah IWM's had a little bit of resistance.
You're hitting eye of day from Thursday, March 26.
So you do have some resistance up here.
You have big resistance at 253 on IWM, but you do have a daily level up here at 251 86. so you could see a little
maybe a little rejection or stall up here
but it looks too clean i like iwm the best of all yeah it looks too clean. I like IWM the best out of all. Yeah, it looks the best.
It's the best.
Okay. I think you pushed up a little bit higher still um yeah we have the top of this daily gap that we're trading in at 293.75 i can see us hitting
that on nq here i'm all out of my log now though that one buy signal yesterday at 11.
Oh, yeah. Sexy.
That was the only signal yesterday on the freaking indicator on the five minute.
I think it hit everything.
I think it was on SPY, Qs, SPX, NDX.
That was beautiful. Levi has three separate trade setups within an hour.
It's usually not that nice. I forgot this.
I mean, I know it is, but I just didn't really realize, like, it's first of the month.
I always like to start it out good.
I don't know how many people on X
are like, the market is so back.
Big bullish.
Like, nah.
Remember the chop that we were in from Wednesday, Thursday, March 18th and 19th,
all the way to the 25th a week later?
We're just going back to that chop range.
And then guess what even if we break that
chop range spx can go all the way back to like 6800 and then guess what there's another big chop
range right there as well but i will say yesterday when spx broke above like 6440
i was like i want to see 135 points higher. And we just hit it.
I would like to see the market kind of
consolidate near these highs.
No big rejection, no straight rip through it, but
news headlines will take precedent over what I feel.
Yeah, BA looks good what a serious one.
Time to slow it down.
Little upper wiki there on IWM in that area.
I don't think we see fat rejections today. I think we can just see scalping.
I'll be nervous.
So, Valdivald DQ is still very positive. Fixed under 24. NVIDIA pushing up here.
Nice little pennant break on your five-minute.
Oh, my gosh.
I didn't realize my April Fool's post kind of blew up.
Oops. Thank you. so
yeah i'm gonna be fat short.
Good.
Corey, if delivers leading interference performance, what is this?
I'm going to be fat short.
It's like a little stub, like a little nub.
A little nub.
Short.
I'm so freaking short and fat up there
short and fat oh daily gap but i get tapped into 293 i'm glad i flip along
two shorts one long. I kind of got to clown myself for that first one,
because yesterday, it was basically the same setup.
It's more of a pattern trade, and it failed yesterday.
And I was clowning everybody that took it.
And now today, I take the same one.
So y'all can clown me for that one.
That's fun.
Literally the same setup.
It was a pattern trade.
No real context behind it.
Like there was,
but that 15 minute gap
we ended up closing above
and I was still in it.
Should have been out when that happened.
I made a post saying if you took this you need to get your eyes checked
where's Trump speaking at oh my God where are these headlines coming from he's speaking right now i don't know i'm seeing some headlines
jp morgan forecast only one boe rate hike in 2026 after interview JP Morgan expects the BOE to hike interest rates by 25 basis points in June versus the
prior forecast to hike interest rates in April and July.
Comments at the Supreme Court right now.
Ukraine wasn't our problem.
It was a test and we were there for them. And we would always
have been there for them, but they weren't there for us.
Apparently, Top Step has acquired the features desk.
Ooh.
Marvell looking like it wants to roll a little bit here after the push ahead this morning.
Spy just hit Tuesday, March 24th high. is right above.
AMD 10 minute kind of looks like a short
little intro day.
Hit the 50 SMA on the daily AMD.
Did it now.
Like to the penny.
Let me see where it's at.
Oh yeah, that's a good spot.
I am just, again, chart watching right now.
Yeah, I see NQ getting to 308.
Yeah, I'm tape reading the rest of the day.
Don't go.
No más. Thank you. uh Oh, yeah. Yeah, Trump's at the Supreme Court. Trump sits front row at the Supreme Court as just as consider ending birthright
citizenships, becoming the first sitting president to attend
oral arguments.
Trump's sitting front row in the Supreme Court
watching people argue back and forth and he's just going to be like
Yeah, I can see that.
Just stirring the fucking pot.
Professional pot stir. Thank you. My volume profile has that on NQ at 24 to 87. Like the high point of control is down at 170.
Price action is just slow. You got a 30 minute note above around like $24,290.
Your one hour is about to be extended again On NQ.
I risked reward if you're looking for anything right here short.
Oracle layoffs will help cost savings.
Analysts say.
And let's say.
The software giant recently said it's raised $50 billion for its data center build out.
The jobs cuts will free up cash flow and increase revenue in the long term, analysts are saying.
For Oracle there.
AMD, new highs
Ooh, I'm glad that closed Google
Look at that
That was at 297
That's kind of the top of the 4-hour
Kind of like having Benzinga Pro
All this news
Meta, after that big pop just going sideways right here
coin looks like a short on that back test.
Sentiment has shifted on copilot.
Analysts supported Microsoft stock amid AI slump.
Wow, I didn't know this.
Microsoft reported their worst quarterly performance since the 08 financial crisis
due to worries about its AI capital.
It's past quarter. That's wild.
Airlines doing decent today holding up with your cruise lines.
Wells Fargo analyst David Strauss initiates coverage on Boeing with an overweight rating and announces price started at $2.50 on Boeing BA.
It's been ripping today.
Nice moves.
It just had a sell signal come in.
It did get a little slap there, yeah.
Yeah, I wanted this to short at 308.
But they're not bringing it there.
It's about 4.6% on the day.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
I mean, the daily, really nice recovery down there off that 190.
I mean, the daily, really nice recovery down there off that 190.
That 210 area, just a little tough.
But no, airline's good.
Cruise line's looking good.
How's your retail?
Flat, nothing.
Boring.
Me? Nothing.
Just hanging around.
Apparently Visa introduced six AI-powered resolution tools
aimed at reducing the billions of dollars lost each year
to fraud and inefficient outdated processes.
Hell yeah. Hell yeah. of dollars lost each year to fraud an inefficient outdated process yeah hell yeah that's wild okay we're going for a bad god dude i i'm just going through a watch list of 180 tickers and like 90 of these are like why why am i even here
looking at any of these amazon moving slow but has been looking decent ever since it reclaimed
pre-market low broke above the midpoint at 10.05 cruising up a little bit
Broke above the midpoint at 10.05, cruising up a little bit.
AMD printed a buy signal at 950.
Consolidated, still kind of moving up a little bit higher.
Nvidia almost got the pre-market highs, but did not pull him back a little bit.
Microsoft could be a short right here. On that back test.
Show me 308. Come on.
Show me 308. Oh, no. Oh, no. Philip Morris stock falls as Zinn delays threaten major growth engine.
Zinn approval delays could push out a key growth catalyst for Philip Morris.
Long the lit pillies. What the fuck happened? US and Iran are discussing a ceasefire for reopening the strait.
Mark, did you move on that? Thank you. Is it quiet or is it me?
No, it's quiet.
Okay, I just didn't know if I got disconnected or something.
You're good.
Come on, 308.
SpaceX has filed confidently for an IPO.
Yeah, they did.
Confidentially,
apparently.
WMG,
Warner Music Group agrees to acquire
Revelator's state-of-the-art independent
our independent music platform. Thank you. you
music platform.
we're hopping on nq now it didn't get there oh five minute hanging man oils rip in here back to 100 bucks nike's still down 13.8 today eli lily's ripping here almost three percent today
talking about that in the pre-market
oh why just getting the headline
so I meant 10 minute hanging man not 5 minute
on NQ
I don't know what this headline is
but she popped I don't know what this headline is.
She popped! Okay, three minutes left to see if they confirm that hangy man or not.
If they confirm it, I'm going short.
Excuse.
Oil just ripped up a little bit.
Just a little bit. Two hours into the open and Spy is still between pre-market high and low.
Neither have even been touched yet.
Casey. Casey.
Yeah.
Ten minute. Oh, yeah. I'm going short.
You're talking to somebody who's already in it, daddy.
Oh, baby.
Look at oil.
Reppin', he said?
Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's poppin'. It broke this little wedge. It's getting a nice ripper candle right up here. Spy.
Hughes IWM is still stalling
right up here. I like it.
I'm in Microsoft
as well. It broke this trend line,
rejecting the daily midpoint perfectly.
Looking for a little bit more of a
move down. So see if overall we can
get this little pullback here.
Let oil do its thing.
Okay.
I'm in QQQ short.
Bring it down, daddy.
584 puts for tomorrow expiration.
What was the high on ES?
95.12.
What's the level?
95.75.
Close. We're still sitting in this five, well, not five minute, 575, close.
We're still sitting in this five, well, not five minute.
Five minute squeeze is done.
Still in the 15 minute squeeze.
It's kind of bringing it back. Oil just hit 100.
Hmm.
Holy LLY.
Jesus Christ.
First target is 230 NQ.
Another 23 points here.
Coming in a bit.
Ten minutes about to close with a cell signal in about five seconds.
Yep.
We just confirmed the hangy man on the ten minute there.
We closed under the wick.
And your ten minute just printed a cell.
Candle close. Next candle nine times out of 10 goes red. Let's see.
And here we go. A little pullback. There you go. There you go. There we go.
Bada bing bada boom. Bada bing bada boom. I'm gonna trim my Microsofts here.
Yeah, IWM off the left.
You tell me something I already know.
You tell me something I already know? I already said where it was at for the spot for the pullback.
I said risk-reward.
You want to do anything right there?
It's short.
All right.
I filled on Microsoft here, 205.
Okay. Okay, let's get on.
If we get under 228,
did the five minute nine, I'm looking at 210.
I'm still in the Sandish court.
And I'm waiting.
It's dropping now, but it was just sitting there for 45 minutes.
I got to move under
690 on that thing. I'm going to get paid.
I have 695 puts, so I'm actually
in the money right now.
We just got to bounce
and then cue.
No, the five and nine
Alright, stopping profit Microsoft, I have orders at 215.
I refuse to sit in trades longer than I have to and not letting green trades go back to
entry or red. and Trier Red.
Yeah, they're holding that 10 minute 9, actually.
I meant to say 10 minute 9,
not 5 minute 9 this whole time.
10 minute 9 is at 2.30.
And they held that.
They held that shit.
Yeah, Chon, hold that shit.
Come on, bring back down. Hold that shit, hold that shit, hold that shit. And come on, bring back down.
Hold that shit, hold that shit, hold that.
Hold that, drop it, hold that, drop it, hold that, drop it.
As Fargo announces price target of 60 bucks on Rocket Lab. on to laugh
damn sandysk will not drive for me jesus christ of course nq had a hold there you bastard bitch
nice job russ on the nq short nice Nice. Oh yes, move it nice and slow, I love the slow price action.
Burn the premiums in my credit spreads.
We invite the slow mouth.
Green overall on the Viren Condor right. Now, after adding the other side. Nike down over 14% now.
Nova Nordics just got slammed as well.
It's down 1.5 on the day.
Just got slammed on the intraday.
I don't see anything that came out, though.
that came out though.
Five-minute cannon just started trying to print a buy signal on SPY.
I just saw another headline.
Oh, that's nothing crazy.
Pfizer and partner BioNTech say they will stop U.S. COVID-19 vaccine study in healthy
adults ages 50 to 64 due to slow enrollment.
I wonder why the enrollment is slow. SpaceX has reportedly filed confidentially for an IPO.
Yes, sir.
What? god lly still trying to go
i think it can go up to like 980 be a nice little short spot and if it essentially the rip that it just had if it does
it again which would be insane but that 980 be a really good spot a little overextension
oil coming down let's got take another rest of microsoft at entry spy new hive day. Ho ho ho. Top of this daily for value gap up here at 293.75.
I'm curious if we try and run through that or reject the top of this here.
Could be like the spot where we kind of try and put an intraday high.
Can I have my remaining shorts for loss?
We are almost at 6,600.
Not quite there yet
cues did not make a new hive day
just the spoosie woosies microsoft chart still valid but i'm just not
looking and you made a high though cues didn't do it
uh i think unless it just did it right there by a pen.
Oh, yeah, it did.
Yeah, okay, yep.
I see 308.
Watching just sell it back down and close underneath here.
I didn't even get the pre-market high on spy still didn't hit
got a minute 45 seconds left buy signal is gone on the five minute candle now iwm big upper wick as Okay.
sega tweeted an hour ago i'm sure this is for april fools they said we're excited to announce
that we're making our sega logo three percent more blue we hope you enjoy this three percent
more blue please take a moment to familiarize yourself with the new look let's go have a
before and after that is the same that's a great post post. Honestly, shout out Sega for that one.
Sega. Oh, Jordan, guess what what so this this this how stupid this guy is so i can't remember if we went
to high school i don't think we went to high school together i think we just had mutual friends
through high schools or whatever but about like three years
ago when i first started getting really big into the casey trades on social media for my trading
and everything he saw it and was like hey um i'm a financial advisor he was like i highly
encourage you to stay away from like actively trading the market he said just invest in the
market and just keep selling corporate calls he said don't do anything else you're always just
going to lose money blah blah blah and um i was like i appreciate a skill issue i said i appreciate
it but uh that's just not the way i work whatever it is right and then we just kept going back and
forth in this conversation he's trying he's he's essentially just trying to teach me about how to invest
properly and trade the market his way and stuff like that i'm like dude great for you but like
that's just that's not me right now so yeah like you do your style do my style right so anyways
i took apple college yesterday around noon before the whole pump happened it made like 200 and i posted my p&l
after the trade with the apple screenshot and everything and um this we we were friends on
facebook and his story popped up and i saw a post from him and talking about how he made so much money trading Apple. And the screenshot was my Webull P&L card and my account P&L as well.
He just cropped out my name at the bottom of it.
So I messaged that guy, and I'm like,
you little scamming-ass motherfucker.
I'm like, what do you think you're doing?
You're telling me you're cooked wow so
so i get his name and i go to lop and i type it in guess who's a premium member of my discord
who's been stealing my shit this guy financial advisor yeah so apparently he works in finance
but i think what he what he's doing is he has his own. So then he commented back when I call him a scammer.
He said, I'm not scamming my audience.
He said, they paid me for a service for $100 each.
He was like, and I get 250 people in my Telegram group every month.
He was like, and I can share what I think is a good trade, whether it's from you or for other people.
That's my job.
And I was like, so your job is to take other people's trades and content and sell it portraying
it as your own to your audience selling it to them um I was like yeah congratulations like a
great thing for you to be doing bro like real good morals there I said congratulations you
kind of just showed yourself and proved yourself to me as you just a scammer and a fraud um that
tells you what kind of guy he is right there dude i was like
i was like what what the fuck is wrong with this guy it's insane bro to how it all started out too
for him to be like it's funny when like the people that have no business teaching you try and teach
you yeah it's it's hilarious i'm like bro it's funny he was he was trying yeah trying to talk to me
and teach me three years ago but now he's paying premium access to get all get all my stuff and
you're supposedly a professional financial advisor but you're out here in my discord saying that day
trading doesn't work but you're posting my P&L over there for your audience,
but I thought it doesn't work.
I'm like, get the fuck out of here.
And he's probably making upwards of 10K a month off that telegram.
That's you.
Oh, he said, he explicitly told me they pay $100 for his telegram.
He has 250 people in there.
So, whatever that math is, 25K?
25K, yeah.
25K.
And I'm probably not the only person that he is following and taking trades.
Because I checked his profile, and there are screenshots from other trades that I did not take.
So, he's probably in multiple trading groups and then just collectively takes all of them and then sells
it in his telegram to people dude the world is full of so many just like oh my gosh grifting
ass motherfuckers bro fuck that guy
also anybody who's doing shit like that on telegram 90 of the time it's a scam it's
fucking telegram I know telegram more like tell a scam get the fuck out of here
is he watching right now no I banned him last night in the discord good man
I banned just tapped in that daily Gap, by the way,
at the top of it.
See if we reject here.
On the bright side, he's been a member for almost a year,
so he paid me almost $600 to steal my shit.
He said, like, good luck trying to sue me or come after me he said because i'm in morocco and then
he sent me his address it's like bro i don't even need to see you i just need people to know that
you're a dirt human being well funny thing is all the invoices from him, it has all full information from him.
I have more information than I need.
But, yeah, fuck that guy.
Crazy, dude.
People are wild.
I'm literally not even that good of a trader.
Why are you stealing my stuff?
Hey, Jen, stealing q short uh
i don't know casey or knots what you guys are doing i've been out my last trade was long and
i've been out since then i took two shorts today one loser one i won on but uh i wasn't sized
properly because my dumb ass didn't didn't click the right button before entering the trade so i
was sized too small and so i took one more trade to the long side
and was able to take that, but I've been out since 1055 Eastern.
I haven't done anything else, so.
I heard you guys scalping around, though.
I think you're already out, though, right, Casey?
Yeah, I have nothing.
I think I'm in an SPX iron condor right now.
I'm in an SPX Iron Condor right now.
That is it.
There you go.
SPY almost just hit pre-market high for the first time.
I think it missed it by two pennies.
So 10-minute evening star right there,
invalidated on the next candle, actually engulfed it.
We're still underneath the resistance.
I mean, this is just slow and choppy.
We're still at the short spot if you're looking for anything. Reward. I don't know what I was thinking is what if for...
No, probably not.
I will be right back, but I'll leave the news squawk on.
So if anything hits, you can hear it.
Sound good.
I'll be back in like a few minutes.
And then we are going to get rolling on to a little Yield Max combo as well.
Top of the hour, 12 p.m. Eastern.
It's been slow, too.
I mean, we've pretty much hit our targets,
and I don't know, things have just been on this slow melt up.
So I don't expect price action to be too crazy fun.
So I'm excited to have another conversation rolling through,
and then we'll be on stream after.
I'll be back in, like, 5. . Thank you. . so
benzinger market update s p futures up 70 the down features up 413 nasdaq up 374
The Dow features up 413.
NASDAQ up 374.
Crude is down $1.35 at $100.03.
Gold is up 134.30 at 48.13.
Bitcoin futures up 1,005 at 69,040.
OTH off the hook company CEO with a buy of 53,000 shares that Oscar Tango Hotel I hope you guys know. All right, we back.
We back.
Still moving higher.
Check it.
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Thank you. Oil popping up again, back over 100.
Spine Q's also trying to move up a little bit.
Still underneath the resistance, though.
So watch to see if oil breaks out here.
We stay underneath the resistance.
Might see another small pullback. Horan says only Iran and Oman will decide the future of the street of Hormuz.
Trump's not gonna like that.
Where's pre-market highs? Bye.
Look at that.
And oil wicking down.
There you go. airline stocks getting a bump today
UAL's ripping airline stocks getting a bump today
UAL is ripping
I'll take up a nice bounce market new high day here and Q yes as well Gold's ripping. Oh, my GDX U pick.
It's just cooking this week.
I kind of want to grab a short right here.
Am I crazy?
I mean, I don't really have much reason for us to go higher intraday, but it's just a little strong.
But we've hit all the targets that I had.
Like these SPYs, 657 put zero DTE
are sitting right at a buck.
Like we pop up a little bit here
and then just bring it right back in.
That's 6,600 SPX. See if they pop over and then reject it.
Are they just gonna full send this thing straight through 6600?
Top of my Q zone goes to 587.54.
And your daily level's at 587.93.
We're still just ripping.
Yeah, IWM pop in.
Looks good.
Cooking.
Right in the launch.
Where's VIX?
VIX 2359.
VOL-D and VOL-DQ still very positive.
Oil's trying to head lower again here.
Yeah.
I don't think we've had an overextended tick today, have we?
No, we did. Why didn't they tell me?
Says right here at.
Rocket Lab up 6.2% now new high a day here no 950 that's why
asts right behind it trying to make a new high as well
circle flipped red on the day we were just gonna alert on that was like yes tesla new high day here rhythm
383 is up three percent today uh es daily 21 retest is right here at 66 52 we're coming up to it
hello why by the way,
just continuously ripping from that headline earlier.
It's up 3.5% just from the headline, 5.2% today.
Huge moves.
Wow.
Who's trading that?
I'm definitely not, but that's crazy.
I didn't see the headline, though.
Maybe Evan knows.
Evan, do you know
the headline
for Eli Lilly?
What that was?
Their weight loss pill
was approved.
Is that what it was?
Okay.
Yeah, GLP-1 pill.
Their second GLP-1 pill, their first one.
Okay.
I took SPY 657 zero DTEs at 80.
Straight little lotto intraday right here.
Heard that.
Coming into lunch here, we are going to get moving on to the YieldMax convo.
We're just getting some of the speakers up.
I see CryptoFit popping up.
We'll get Michael Ko on stage here soon.
So if you're in the audience and you've been trading with us this morning, stick around.
Usually the market tends to slow down a bit during lunchtime.
And we have a great conversation coming for you, especially if you like to have that monthly income coming in for you.
So stay tuned.
We're going to have a fun convo with the crew from YieldMax.
If you guys haven't been on these conversations before, we do them every Wednesday at 12 p.m. Eastern.
So put it on your calendar.
Set reminders for the spaces every week when we post the links, and make sure you're following all that.
But I'm excited to get into it here soon.
What's up, CryptoFit?
What are you doing?
How's the morning been?
I'm doing good.
I funny enough, I want to hear Michael Coda listen to this,
but I wrote an e-book on Wheeling TQQQ, and I sold a copy.
And then I've been talking to the dude and he's like crushing it and he was so
thankful and my mind is blown and the only reason I had the knowledge to even write that was you
know coming on here and reading uh reading Jay's book and it's obviously not investment advice but
it's like I don't know I'm I'm kind of proud of myself bro absolutely and i know uh you've been uh you've been doing the new show on on
thursdays as well big shout out to you that's been uh that's been great i listened to the lots
of the first one and that was uh that was a really good conversation i'm excited to see how that goes
in the future now yeah we got to get miss roundhill in there i forgot she's not in the
income dm that i have so miss roundhill please uh, Thursdays at 2 p.m. Eastern is all about income from here on out.
Love that.
Yeah.
So you guys get a little piece of it here, but we really deep dive at 2 p.m. Eastern with CryptoFit here over on the Wolf Financial channel.
So you also definitely check that out.
What's up, Ms. Roundhill?
Oh, just finished recording
today's video.
So I'm pretty happy to have
this time with you all today.
And I'll definitely remember
to come tomorrow at 2 p.m.
That sounds interesting.
Yeah, definitely. I'm sure the crew would love to have
you for sure.
Let's see.
Michael Coe, I did send you an invite. invite let me know let me know if you see that I'll shoot him a DM as well I see him in the audience get Hello. Hey, Michael. How are you doing? Good.
Good.
It's an interesting day.
Are we saved? Are we not saved?
I mean...
I think the jury
is still out on that.
I mean, we've seen how quickly things can
change.
It was kind of interesting for me on a personal I mean, we've seen how quickly things can change.
It was kind of interesting for me on a personal note today,
just seeing how Nike responded to earnings.
It's in Salty.
Restoration Hardware and Nike were both part of the short book in Salty.
Restoration off 22.6% today.
And Nike down another 13.7% to 11-year lows.
And the reason that was kind of interesting to me on a personal note is that several years ago, it was in June.
It was the Friday night right before Father's Day weekend.
And I took my older son, Sam,
who's actually going to be going to college next year,
with me to New York, and we put him on the air
right after Fast Money and Options Action at the tail end of it.
And, you know, how they often just go around the horn.
Everybody gets to say a little something, their final trade or whatever.
And what he said at that point was,
buy Nike shoes, not Nike stock.
Happy Father's Day.
That stock is down over 40%, if you can believe it since then,
underperforming the S&P by 202%.
Only time the kid's ever been on CNBC.
That's amazing stuff.
Wow.
What a call.
What a call.
Now, needless to say, Nike did go higher after he said that, but it just sort of proves the
old adage that, you know, in the markets,
in the short term, it's a voting machine, but in the long run, it's a weighing machine.
And we had a couple people internally say, oh, it's, you know, it's down to 2015 levels.
It's got to be a buy-in here.
Well, it's interesting because the anticipated net income that Nike is going to generate for the fiscal year that ends in May
is probably going to be closer not to what it earned in 2015, but to what it earned in 2012,
if you can believe it. And the question I had for some of the people, and i guess i would ask it here too who who uh who buys nike apparel
and who buys nike shoes these days i mean how many of the people who are on this space i wonder
i have a pair of nike air forces that i've had for probably over a year now i'm not buying them
all the time but i do have a pair um you have a pair, but when you go,
if you buy sports apparel of any kind,
I mean, are you buying Nike stuff?
Are you buying Biore?
When you're buying shoes, are you buying On?
Are you buying Salmon?
That's what actually one of the people that was saying,
oh yeah, Nike might be a buy here.
He then indicated that he doesn't actually buy Nike shoes.
And he used to be one of the guys that would go to the sneaker con kind of thing um or whatever it's
called you know people who are trading this stuff and i can remember even when um my kids friends
were i mean they were investing it and they were speculating in limited edition Nikes.
And that seems pretty much over.
I agree. I feel like people have moved on
to other companies for the most part.
I got some Nike content.
I do for you, Michael.
So we,
first of all, I posted that the other day
and people, I don't know if you guys are getting
this in the X algorithm, but you're getting a lot more people now from other countries. And I had a guy post that it is 16%. It's the most memorable logo over Apple, over McDonald's, over Coca-Cola. It's still Nike to this day on this day.
on this day and um that so with crossfit in 2014 and 15 we were at our biggest and we were with
reebok so we got to you know i was at reebok center all the time and and then nike came along
in 2014 or 15 with a fitness shoe like it was like a crossfit shoe and you know functional fitness
and you can climb rope and funny enough when we when we got to, uh, to kind of
talk to them and be in the rooms with them, they were the most powerful. And I look at where their
stock was at that time. And they basically said, Hey, we're going to, you know, we're going to go
into the gym industry and we're going to do all these things. And you guys are, you know,
you can sell us the company now in hindsight, we definitely should have. But I can't believe for one second that something's not going to come out of Nike.
Come on.
It has to happen.
Obviously, Jordan is separate from the brand.
But the most memorable logo?
Can you launch a product on that in 72 hours?
Because I'll buy it.
I'll buy yield on it all the way up.
It is interesting to mention the logo because it was in a separate context.
I serve as a strategic advisor for a fintech company. And one of the issues that they were
talking about was their brand name and their
logo. They're going to be doing a launch sometime soon. And whenever I think of a logo,
you know, that's the first one that comes to mind that is both memorable and,
you know, there's nothing negative you can say about it. You know, I even mentioned when I brought up the Nike logo at the time,
I said, you know, Lululemon, it's a fairly straightforward logo,
but I've always thought that it kind of was a little bit narrow
and that it might have hurt the ability of the brand
to start appealing to men and other contexts, right?
Because it isn't as generic and straightforward.
I can't remember what it was that Phil Knight paid for that logo, but clearly it was a bargain at much more than twice the price.
I think it was like 20 bucks or something.
I can't remember, but some remarkably low number.
The other interesting thing about this week
from a YieldMax perspective is that it is the,
this week marks the one-year anniversary for Chippy,
which launched on April 3rd a year ago.
And that one has had total returns of about 80% since then.
So that's a pretty good one-year anniversary present, I guess.
Oh, yeah, I gotta love that.
Hey, just a quick reminder for the audience as well,
before we get any further into the conversation,
if you guys are thinking about investing into some of the YieldMax ETFs, some of the tickers we might be talking about today,
just make sure you carefully consider the fund's investment objective, risk, charges,
and expenses before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contain all this and
other information about YieldMax. So if you guys want to find that, just go to the YieldMax
ETFs.com, go to the YieldMax website there, and you should be able to find the just go to the yieldmaxetfs.com uh go to the yieldmax website there and you should be
able to find the perspectives for all the funds so i highly recommend just looking through that
you know knowing what you're investing in familiarize yourself with the actual products
and uh and yeah then you go from there but uh michael yeah talking about chippy a bit
how uh how has that been doing over the past know, recently with some of the market dips here? Yeah, I mean, as you would probably expect with, you know, all of the market choppiness that we have seen, there's a little bit more beta in there.
But it's still, you know, it's still up 10, what do we got here?
10.4% on the year.
Total returns, if you'd taken the distributions and reinvested them.
A little bit better if you just simply taken the distributions outright.
Because, you know, basically since, you know, since the strikes,
almost every sort of high duration equity has been hit.
And that's going to include a lot of the constituents of Chippy.
But, yeah, still up double digits for the year, total returns.
So, and the shares are flat.
Paid a 40 cent distribution this past week as well.
Yeah, I mean, you know, one of the things that we're seeing for sure
is that, you know, we are getting much higher premiums, of course, with everything that's
going on. I mean, last Friday, we saw the VIX close at over 31. And, you know, when options
premiums are higher, and you're in an option selling environment. I don't know who said it,
but in the prior hour, somebody was mentioning that they were in an SPX iron condor. And
one of the things you're going to observe if you're engaged in a strategy like that, I mean,
I know that a lot of people listening are active market participants actively trading. Two things
happen. You can
increase the amount of premium that you're collecting on any given day if it's an option
that expires more than a day away. So if you're not selling zero DTEs, that means you're going
to have more theta. If it is going to be short data, you're talking about what you collect by
the end of the day, but you're also going to be selling strikes that are further away from the money. So I think that's, you know, one of the things that has helped a lot of these
funds. Obviously, it's interesting because in the restoration hardware and the Nike examples I gave
today that are in Salty.
You know, the investment committee met yesterday to discuss those shorts
because restoration hardware in particular,
it came off of, you know,
so we basically have,
we run these continuous screens
and the names that are showing up in the short book,
restoration hardware actually came off of it.
So basically the systems were saying, you Hardware actually came off of it. So basically, the systems were saying,
you know, maybe you can cover it.
Restoration Hardware had already come off quite a lot.
Dan Weiskopf, who I don't know if is going to be joining today's,
hopefully he is going to join today's space.
I'm not sure if he's available or not.
If I see him, I'll go please call him an invite.
I'll send him the link as well.
Yeah, and Mike Venuto was on the call,
and Mike Venuto's comment was,
he said, I know that Restoration came off our short list,
but they're going to be reporting after the close,
and I want to stay in it.
And I actually put it into the chat this morning.
It's a great call because it's very easy in a situation like that where, you know,
you're short stock positions in particular.
And this is something, again, all of you active market participants know.
do active market participants know?
I mean, restoration hardware had fallen from, what,
230 or so in January to 140.
So it was, saw it, you know, 40% loss, give or take,
through the close yesterday.
It would have been very easy to cover that thing.
And here we are trading 108 bucks.
It's now down well over 50% since the January highs.
Actually, I should take a look.
I'm going to imagine these guys are going to be closing this thing out pretty soon
because pretty tough to ride it short all the way to zero.
But it does speak to letting your winners run a little bit.
Awesome. Great stuff, Michael.
Hey, CryptoFit, I want to come back over to you.
I know you've been doing these shows now weekly on Wolf Financial as well, the income shows with some great people.
I think you had uh was it was it
marco one last time uh yeah marco smila yeah yeah he's awesome we've had him on here a couple times
and he's just great to listen to i'm curious what you guys are excited about right now and
what you're looking at right now with yield max i i mean honestly if you're on the show frequently i'm it's a great biggie opportunity
i mean i know michael would probably back me up on that i i think biggie under 50 like i wish that
rhymed better but like a biggie under 50 a biggie under 50 if you can if you can scoop that i i don't
see biggie going away and this is eventually not going to be a price i don't see Biggie going away. And this is eventually not going to be a price.
I don't believe you are going to be able to get it at 50, under 50 forever.
And if you're like me and like a lot of people where you eventually just want to set a million dollars in, you know, a yield bearing account, why would you not want, you know, the biggest 50 companies versus just 100% in a Bitcoin treasury fund?
I'm starting to have this debate and argument. It's not that those aren't fantastic, fun plays
to do. And yes, you don't have the volatility of seeing your capital go down. But I do want
appreciation that will outpace inflation. If it's one thing I learned from Michael,
is that's
something that you need to look for in a yield that you want to do forever. So I'm looking at
that. I wussed out and didn't do my cash secured put on Snapchat and I should have. And I'm looking
at some degen plays because I get bored. Peloton's one, but I don't know. I'd rather just buy income funds.
Michael, do you think that you guys are going to potentially, there's no prospectus change needed
in Biggie, obviously. It's very straightforward, but do you think that your guys are going to
dive into that 10% yield more, that 12% yield more.
I don't know what else you can do besides the targets,
but it seems to be a popular growing space
of this 10 to 20% yield.
Yeah, it's interesting because I also get to hear
some of the input that's coming from managers
who run strategies like that,
you know, what they're targeting, what their aspirations are. I mean, we run the gamut,
right? So Quad D, which was the most recent launch, you know, the target options income
from that particular group of stocks is much more modest than it is even for Biggie. Biggie's a target
12. And effectively, you're looking at a 1% per quarter net options income on top of a 3 plus
percent dividend distribution for Quad D. So there you're looking at, I guess you could think of it this way,
that that's targeting 7% or maybe slightly higher, slightly, but that's sort of the neighborhood,
7% annual distribution, half of that to be qualified, qualified dividends. So, you know,
we have a very broad array from ones that are trying to distribute very aggressively to ones that have much more modest options, income targets.
these really high distribution products,
then I need to think about how I redeploy
the distributions I'm getting
to make sure that I always have a suitable amount
of capital invested.
Those tend to attract a lot more attention,
it seems to me.
So I think maybe we have a bit of a messaging problem
on the ones that have the lower targets. I think it's probably
going to depend a little bit on investor education. And so when people are listening to forums like
this, they're probably getting caught up on that. They have more experience with these products.
They understand how they work a little bit better. So I think we are going to have more products like that, just to fill out the whole,
you know, suite of products. And that has been, you know, our tendency, but they haven't gotten
as much, I don't know, as much love, I guess, from investors yet. And I think that's because
a lot of people sort of look at the headline number and aren't
really sort of thinking about it all on a total return basis and also on a maintenance
basis, right?
So if you have a higher distribution target, that leaves more in the hands of the investor.
That can be a good thing or it can be a bad thing.
It's a good thing in the sense that it gives investors more flexibility.
But it can be a bad thing if they don't recognize that when you get distributions that are that large,
that there certainly will be periods where you need to redeploy some of that distribution
to stabilize the asset base on which you're trying to earn options premium.
So, yeah, my hope is that we do offer more of them, and I hope that they get more love when we do.
So we'll see how that goes.
And we'll sort of see how it goes with Quad D as well.
I'm imagining that Quad D is going to start getting a bit of a pickup.
It's only been out for a couple of weeks.
So we'll see.
But so far, I think it's just people often look for the headline number rather than sort of saying, okay, what's the approach I want to have for something that's going to, you know, be a good place to park some money for, you know, 10, 20, 30 years.
And, you know, some of the lower target ones that are more set and forget, grow with time.
That's the kind of thing I've sort of been pointing my own parents towards.
They're, you know, they're getting up there.
My dad's going to be 89 years old this year.
So, you know, for somebody like that,
getting distributions and reinvesting them,
you know, I'm not that comfortable with him driving, to be honest.
So I'm not really that enthused about him, you know,
trying to figure out how to
reinvest his distributions either. Well, would you say that, and you're not saying this,
this is just me, a guy who talks about it, so on investment advice, but would it be a fair thing
to say that, I'm not going to use other products, but SPYI comes to example, right? Where it's maybe more just on, you know, the S&P 500.
If our economy rallies, you know, if we, if we see, um, you know, new S&P tops and everything,
Biggie should, uh, outperform because it's, it's the top 50, right?
So, I mean, in reality, is that, is that something that I should not say?
Obviously not getting advice, but am I completely off with that?
The largest, so, you know, the companies that comprise the largest 50 by market cap are about an 80% weight of the S&P or more, depending on where things are at any moment.
And those typically are going to, you going to contain the winners in the index.
So when the market's doing well, those stocks tend to do well
because the biggest growth tech companies are represented in that group.
You can sort of think of the same power law that impacts the S&P 500
itself as impacting the top 50 largest. You know, the winners migrate their way in,
and the ones that aren't doing as well fall out of the bottom. So in a bull market, yes,
we would expect it to do well. Also, by the way, not for nothing, but a bull market is
sort of defined by what the S&P does, and that's 80% of it. So you can't really have one without
the other. Mathematically, you don't really get, I mean, imagine what it would require
for you to be able to say that the S&P 500 is in a bull market, but the top 50 largest companies in the S&P 500 are not.
That doesn't really happen because you can't get that math to work.
CryptoFit, always appreciate you, my man.
I'll come back around if we have some more time on the panel here.
But always appreciate you, brother.
John, I see you had your hand up.
Did you want to come up and fill in any thoughts there?
Yeah, I appreciate it, Wolf, and thank you for having me back on.
It's great to see everybody.
I just had a question for Michael, if he could help me out,
because I'm sort of piggybacking off what Crypto said.
Can you discuss sort of the holdings and how y'all have the chippy ETF set up and how it's different from some of the higher yielding ETFs? Because I'm looking at the one-year chart,
and just the NAV itself is up almost 24%. So that's very impressive how y'all are running that
fund. And how is that different than, like I said, if you can explain a little very impressive how y'all are running that fund. And how is that different than,
like I said, if you could explain a little bit of how y'all have this set up compared to the
higher yielding yield max ETFs, I'd appreciate it. Yeah, I mean, that one obviously has had
quite a high yield as well. I mean, the share price is up just shy, I think, of 24% since launch on the third, with total returns just shy of 84%.
So, you know, a little quick arithmetic gets you to 60% distributions off of the initial
launch on Chippy. If you look at, you know, the way to sort of think about these,
If you look at the way to sort of think about these, Soxie has a lot of common constituents, right? So Soxie is a target 25. So it's the one that's really are much more modest at trying to target a 2% distribution per
month. And you see that in the net effect. So the total returns for SOXI over the same period
are slightly higher, probably because there's just a little bit more retention
in it as a function of, you know, there's a slight
scheduling issue because you calculate total returns by reinvesting the dividends.
But there's also going to be that brief period where if you pay out a distribution, then you
have to put the money back in. So Soxie's total returns over the same period are about 85 and a quarter versus 84. So, you know, about 1.25, 1.35% better for the full year.
But the distributions are much more modest.
And I think this is something that investors, you know, can and should think about, which
is, you know, this is a trade-off that for the high distribution products,
every investor gets to make for themselves.
You get a distribution and you say,
okay, am I comfortable with the underpinning stocks in here?
Do I like what I own?
Do I want to redeploy this distribution back into that
or some portion of it to sort of keep the assets constant?
Or do I want to deploy it elsewhere
and focus more on what seems to
be doing better at the moment which is more of a momentum-based strategy and for investors in
wimax that's uh that rebalance is pretty much done at this point so that's the going to be the
approach um you know going forward in wimax rather than just a simple equal weight. The other thing about the distributions is that they're going to be impacted by vol, right?
So if we have an environment like the one
we've been in since February 28th,
I'm not saying that's an environment I want
because at the end of the day,
you still own the underpinning stocks
and this kind of price action isn't great from that perspective.
It's great from a trading perspective.
It's great from an option selling perspective.
But ultimately, what we really want is for stocks to go higher.
And it's interesting because when you look at something like Chippy or Soxie or one of the things that's done really well, that's the common thread.
The common thread is that the underlying stocks
that you own did well.
And ultimately, that's what you care about.
If you look at Ulti, which is still tracking,
we think, pretty well relative to the S&P,
relative to the Qs,
since the strategy shift in the beginning of December,
there were a couple stocks in there that didn't do so great.
One had an arrest of one of the founders.
That would be Supermicro.
And the good news about the strategy
is because they're collared positions,
it limits the amount of risk.
But sometimes there's a challenge in just chasing options premium.
And ultimately, we want stocks to go higher.
So if I was looking at these, that's the thing I would focus on.
Just continue to make sure you're comfortable with the constituents.
Just continue to make sure you're comfortable with the constituents.
If you're using the single stock ETF products as well, same thing applies.
Just constantly reevaluate how you feel about the underpinning stocks
and then create a nice diversified portfolio and then hope that markets go higher
because that's really going to be the biggest potential driver of performance.
John, appreciate you coming on as always, brother.
Thanks for coming again.
Hey, Div Degenerates, love to get you back in the conversation.
How are you doing, my man?
I'm good. How's everybody here?
Doing well. I'm curious what you're excited for in the YieldMax area, what you're looking at right now, or if you have any questions for Michael Coe.
I actually do have a question. A lot of other funds are coming out.
You know, there's one company, all they do is put spreads, big yield, terrible NAV stability.
And then another one's doing synthetic longs with put spreads.
So it's not capped upside.
And I'm wondering what, Michael, what you think about, you know, that versus the covered calls or the call spreads or the collars.
And I think, you know, hopefully we're hitting a bottom in the market.
So I'm hoping things will start to run up.
What are your thoughts on those other products?
I mean, first of all, with respect to credit put spreads.
So one of the things about it, if you sell a put spread, which is fine, we do sell credit put spreads, by the way, from time to time in Ulti.
So if you look at those positions, sometimes you're going to see, you look in there and you say, okay, well, these guys, they own a stock.
They're short,
some upside calls or call spreads.
Typically, these positions are collared
to create a defined risk situation.
So you might see that there's a long put,
but sometimes you'll also see short put spreads
and another long put.
It might look like a butterfly
or something like that on the downside.
There can be merit to that, and it depends on also your view about the price of the underlying.
So I'll give an example.
I was asked to just explain a call spread risk reversal, and I was using Newmont,
Newmont Mining, the gold miner, as an example.
And, you know, if you have a long stock position
and a long put spread, so not a credit put spread,
but a long put spread and then a short call,
that's synthetically equivalent to a call spread risk reversal.
And what you can end up with, if you're taking, I don't know if anybody's able to pull this
up on your screens right now.
This was just something I was outlining yesterday.
Pull up a chart of Newmont and look at, say, a six-month chart, for example.
and look at, say, a six-month chart, for example.
And yesterday, when I was looking at this
at the time that we were outlining it,
Newmont was trading around 108.
I said you could buy a July 110, 130 call spread
and sell the 90-strike puts for very close to even money
at that moment.
And what this highlights is that, first of all, when you're dealing with options,
you can synthetically create a lot of very similar payoff profiles with different mechanisms.
So like I said, a call spread risk reversal is basically the same thing as a long,
common, short upside call with a protective put spread.
But one of the reasons that you might be interested in one of these strategies versus another
is obviously how balls look at any moment.
So if you are dealing with something like a gold miner, which number one, we were in
the 91st percentile, I think, for two-month implied
volatility in the gold miners as of yesterday. But secondly, you get this positive skew. So
having a long call spread in that case can make some sense because the way out of the money call
options are trading at a higher implied volatility than the at-the-money ones are.
Most of our strategies sell call spreads, though.
And one of the reasons that we like that as a strategy is because most equities,
that's not the case. Most of the time, equities have negative skew. Negative skew in options land
simply means, and this is probably the thing that most of you who have looked at options prices
will see right away, is that usually the downside puts or lower strikes have higher implied
volatilities than the higher strikes do. That's what negative skew is. So negative skew is when
downside strikes have higher implied vol. Positive skew is when the higher ones do. So if you have negative skew, what that means is if I sell a call spread, so if I own a stock
and I sell a covered call spread against it, I might collect 40% of the distance between the
strikes in premium. And that's a different risk reward dynamic if I'm long the common than if I sell a downside put spread and get,
because of that skew, perhaps 25% of the distance between the strikes.
So in one case, I'm collecting 40% of the max value of the spread. In the other case,
I'm collecting only 25%. So whether one of these strategies makes sense or not will depend a lot on the vol surface.
And there are a lot of reasons why this is the case, right?
So one of the reasons this can be the case is related to how market perceives risk.
One of the reasons puts trade at a premium in equities is that people feel like stocks take the stairs up, they take the elevator down.
So that could be a reason why there would be a put premium.
Supply and demand could be another reason.
People like to collect options premium, so they'll sell some upside calls against stocks that they own to collect premium.
They like to own insurance, so they'll buy some downside puts.
And that supply-demand imbalance can account for some of that.
Another reason is a fundamental one.
Sometimes you will see that the downside puts traded a premium
because a business might have a fairly levered balance sheet.
Equity becomes more volatile as it is a smaller constituent
of the entire capital structure of a business,
which probably makes some sense.
You can imagine if you have a company
that has $10 billion in debt,
$20 billion in equity,
then the equity's effectively
got a little bit of leverage in it.
But if the stock falls in half,
how much leverage does it have now when it's half debt, half equity? Well, obviously a lot more. So that is another
reason why you'll sometimes see the skewness. So when you're looking at these strategies,
whether they're yield max strategies or anybody else's, this is the kind of thing that is going
to play into whether or not. So it's not as simple as, oh, does it make sense to sell a call spread?
Does it make sense to sell a put spread?
Do I want to buy them?
Do I want to sell them?
What the market is giving you is going to define whether or not one or the other of
these strategies makes the best sense at that time.
And so some of our funds will be doing these things at one point,
they won't be doing them at another. Give you another example, which is not part of one of the
yield max strategies, but it's something for everybody listening to think about as a hedge.
And probably a lot of people are thinking about that. The market is really rallying and you're thinking, are we out of the woods?
Or is there a risk that this thing conflict rates once again
and oil prices shoot up and things go in the other direction?
Well, I think I mentioned this on a prior space,
but there was a trade that I saw about two weeks ago.
And I thought it was an interesting one.
It was done in good size.
Somebody bought 45,000 May 1st weekly 5,300, 5,200 put spreads.
I think I mentioned this on a prior space, but anybody who's listening now who didn't
hear that one.
They paid like $1.28, I think, for those spreads.
So it's $100 wide put spread.
They paid $1.28 for it.
Well out of the money, obviously. S&P is close to 6,600 now. So the 5,300, 5,200. And you'd say,
well, you know, why would they do that? And why did they do it then? Well, the reason was because they'd already made the strikes on February 28th. So vol was higher and equities
were lower. Going out and buying puts or buying tight put spreads close to where the equity market
was already trading, that was going to be exceptionally expensive. And the payoff
was a lot less attractive. So remember before I said in a normal condition in the S&P,
you could probably buy a tight put spread for about 25% of the distance between the strikes going out, call it 30 days or whatever.
Well, this big 5,300, 5,200, and the person who bought it spent about 5.75 million on it,
that trade's worth, you know, 450 million bucks if we went into a formal bear market.
So all of the things we just talked about
went into that trade.
They understood that there was a risk,
but they couldn't buy puts because vol was too high.
They were looking at levels.
So just like I was talking about in the Newmont situation,
that 90, 110, 130 call spread risky,
130 basically is getting very close
to the prior highs that we saw in January.
Probably going to get some resistance there, right?
So you don't mind selling that upside call.
You've got the positive skew.
And $90 is back where it was trading in early December, talking about new month.
So when you're looking at that narrow put spread in SPX, they were saying,
okay, what's the real downside in the market? The real downside is it gets into a formal bear
market territory. Prior high was 7,200. 5,200 basically takes us right to a 20% downside.
I get a 77 to 1 payoff if it does fall there. That would represent about a 12% decline from where the S&P was trading at the time
they put that trade on.
So things that are starting to matter,
the level of implied volatility,
the level of the underlying asset
and where you think the risk is
and what you're trying to protect against.
So all of these things are the moving parts
that all of you as investors, as traders, you want to think about.
You want to think about SKU.
You want to think about implied volatility.
And you want to think about levels and what it is you're targeting in terms of either protection or not.
And this is very much about, I call it squeezing a balloon.
We only get to trade from settlement,
whatever the market's providing us at any moment.
And whenever you do one trade,
you're giving up something for whatever it is you get,
if it goes your way.
And that's sort of the balance
that you're constantly trying to strike.
Personally, I'd probably favor being short call
spreads against long common. Stocks generally rise, value of a dollar generally falls.
I prefer getting a higher percentage of the maximum value of a spread.
And also, in the mega cap space, price jumps are probably a little bit less common.
I don't think, you know, some of the biggest stocks like they're in Big E, for example,
most of these things are not takeover candidates, for example.
So a big upside jump is probably unlikely.
And that also favors being short call spreads long common versus just being short credit
put spreads as a mechanism for
collecting premium but you know whether it makes sense or not is going to vary based on the the
time and circumstance um kind of a kind of a lot to digest there i realize it but um
no that was phenomenal because the truth yeah that was perfect you That's the truth.
Yeah, that was perfect.
You can't hear me right.
My Wi-Fi is being a little weird, Michael.
You guys got me, yes?
Oh, yeah.
Okay.
Perfectly.
Cool, cool.
Just making sure.
Just making sure.
Ms. Roundhill, I want to come over to you and see if you have any thoughts on the conversation.
I always love your questions.
Do you have any thoughts for Michael here?
Yes. So we have all thoughts for Michael? Yes.
So we have all been experiencing these crazy markets and yesterday we happened to be up.
Are you happy with how SDTY is performing with yesterday?
Let's take a look.
It's when i i was looking it seemed like it got capped a little bit early
with how much the s&p 500 was up yesterday which is one of the risks that with doing cover call
ets yeah that's that you will well you know capped is it is certainly something that can um can happen um you are going to be giving off this
is exactly what i was talking about squeezing the balloon a little bit you're if you're short
premium you know you can be long convexity or you can be short convexity if you're long convexity
as a move um becomes bigger and accelerates so, you know, the gains in your position if it's going your way.
If you're short convexity, it's going to trickle off. If you're short a call spread, it's going to
mute some of the upside move, but there'll be a region of where you don't participate and then
a region where you do. But in a, you know, in a zero DTE covered call situation, if the market really rips, whether you're selling puts or if you're long common and selling off some upside, you're going to see less performance than the underlying.
But the other thing I think that's worth noting is that these types of moves are not the norm, or at least I hope they're not the norm.
I mean, we don't want to see a market where 1.5% moves in the S&P become really commonplace.
If they're all to the upside, I guess that's okay, but that's not usually the way this works.
If they're all to the upside, I guess that's okay, but that's not usually the way this works.
So, yeah, I'm reasonably satisfied with it.
And look, when implied volatility is higher, as it has been lately, you're still going to get a little bit more out of this than you would if you –
What's the worst thing that could happen in a covered call situation if the market's going your way?
what's the worst thing that could happen in a covered call situation if the market's going your way?
It is to end the prior day with implied volatility at 10 and then for the market to gun it 200 basis points the following day.
Because you sold a tighter strike and you got less for it.
Yesterday, that wasn't the case because we were dealing with a market
that was still moving around quite a lot.
So if you think about how the traders went out on Monday,
where was the VIX on Monday?
Like 28, 29?
Might have even been a little bit higher.
I have to take a look back at the tape.
But yeah, I mean, I think these things behaved
as we would expect.
Good, yes, because I've been keeping a close eye
on WiMAX, Big E, and SDTY.
Those are the ones from YieldMax
that I'm paying attention to now.
I think that Big E has the most upside potential.
WiMAX, I really like the mix.
Are you happy with how that is performing basically the last couple weeks?
I'm actually going to save my judgment.
Now that we've actually gotten the rebalancing work done,
and now they sort of have that new process,
I like what they're sort of have that new process i i'm gonna i like what they're doing and philosophically i'm in alignment with it i i think it's early days to um say victory
on that um but the approach is one that makes good sense to me and i i like what they've done there
um how about you come back to me in 90 days
and I'll give them all a pat on the back
and maybe myself too
or be left in some form of an explanation, I guess.
Don't worry, I'll ask you every week for the next 90 days.
All right, sounds good. I'll be here.
Yeah, I was just disappointed that gold and silver, you know, did us dirty like that.
You know, well, like I said, I was just, it was just yesterday that I was making the point that I,
first of all, Newmont bounced right off of the 150,
which I thought was kind of interesting.
You know, their average cost is also still substantially lower than, you know, where gold is now.
I think their average mine cost now is like $16.75 an ounce,
I think,
is what they're forecasting for the full year.
You know, an energy price,
this is kind of the thing that's moving around
if you're looking at the miners,
just so people are kind of giving it some thought.
So obviously if energy costs go up
and we saw this big spike in energy costs,
then that creates somewhat narrower margins for the miners. And then, of
course, you also have the volatility of the metals themselves. But I mean, that's a big buffer,
16.75 to where gold is. So I think they remain very, very well positioned. And I really liked
that kind of skew dynamic, that positive skew dynamic to take advantage of something like a call spread
risky. I mean,
I know it feels a little late to be talking about it today since it's,
it's up so sharply, but, um,
I think all of the things that I was talking about yesterday when I was looking
at this remain true today, even though, you know, it, it is up, um,
you know, 6% or whatever, you know, 6% in the grand scheme of things, even though, you know, it is up, you know, 6% or whatever.
You know, 6% in the grand scheme of things.
And we're right back to the 50 now.
So I think that's an interesting one.
Yeah, and it's also been very interesting to follow SLTY and YQQQ during this correction, this pullback, because they don't have the exact price action.
queue. And, you know, during even like these yesterday when the market went up by a lot,
SLTY didn't actually lose a lot of value because you're individually picking the stock. So thank
you. Yeah, you know, that's a great point. One of the comments that Mike Venuto made yesterday
was that, you know, you could look at Salty and say, okay, is this going to behave precisely like a short market condition?
Now, it does have a little bit of a short market proxy in there that's used when cash gets freed up.
So you'll notice that there's a triple Q position in there.
But his comment was, I view this as absolute return. I view Ulti and Salty
as, you know, kind of a 13030 approach, meaning that the idea is they want to pick good stocks
in Ulti for the right reasons, and they want to pick good companies to short in Salty.
companies to short in Salty.
And, you know, I think, you know,
today is a particularly good example of that
because actually I think they added Marathon yesterday
if I'm trying to remember.
Was it yesterday that they added?
I'm not sure.
But, you know, Restoration and Nike,
I think are sort of the two perfect examples
because if you're doing an absolute,
you know, an absolute short book correctly, you are picking individual stocks that, you know,
you believe have idiosyncratic risk. And, you know, sometimes there's going to be a little bit of a market proxy in there.
USO is obviously an energy proxy.
So that makes sense. But something like Target, that's an individual name that's been chosen.
and restoration of hardware in Nike
Restoration Hardware and Nike are individual names that have been chosen.
or individual names that have been chosen.
And even some of these other ones,
like somebody put out today,
I saw a post where they were saying
since Salesforce got added to the industrials,
it's basically dead flat and Exxon's up over 300%.
That's the name that came out of the industrials.
And I happen to mention that one also because here we are ripping
and Salesforce is basically flat.
And that's also in the short book in Salty.
So you can kind of see what the PMs are doing there
with their equity selection.
You know, it's not because otherwise you could just simply say, okay, I'll take the Qs. I'll short the Qs and I'll with their equity selection. You know, it's not, because otherwise you could just simply say,
okay, I'll take the Qs, I'll short the Qs
and I'll sell some premium against it.
And, you know, when the markets rise, it's going to lose,
but that's not what they're doing.
You know, relatively high beta stocks
and the market's ripping here
and SALTI is down 34 cents.
I mean, it's off just a little over 1%.
I mean, if you were short a lot of high beta as a market proxy,
just generally, how would you be doing today?
Your face would be torn off.
You'd be down three plus.
be down three plus.
Thank you so much, Michael.
That was it for me that I had for questions for today.
All good.
Always a pleasure having you on, Miss Roundhill.
I know we got about eight minutes left.
Michael Cohen, are there any big points that we haven't really hit on
or any news that you want to bring to attention for everybody
uh well um other than just mentioning you know obviously the the chippy anniversary i will say
um i mean i hope that things are settling down, but I obviously don't have a crystal ball.
I don't know that.
So one of the things I would just leave people with are some of the, you know, think back
on some of the points we were just making, because all of these things still remain true.
You know, you're going to try to take a look at number one, how do you feel about these
individual stocks?
Number two, what is the aggregate level of implied volatility in those stocks?
Number three, what is the skew in those?
And as you look at that, there's a lot of applications you can look at it
and see how puts are priced relative to calls.
Just like volatility itself shifts,
sometimes too, so to skew.
And when you look at that
and then take a look at how the managers
are selecting strikes and selecting strategies,
it's worth considering.
If you are contemplating hedging yourself
when vols are high um you know consider
thinking okay i'm only going to put on a real tail risk
hedge rather than just getting um into regular long 30 delta 30 day puts for example or put spreads
because you know people that's a common trap that people fall into.
The market starts to roll over. People get a little bit concerned.
They don't like to sell losing positions, so they hold on to them.
They sell, buy some insurance, and then you end up overpaying for the insurance just as the market is dipping.
I think it is probably a healthier perspective to say, I'm going to look for tactical things to get into here, to get long, just figuring that we will sooner or later find our way through this and look for something like a tactical tail hedge, kind of like that SPX put spread that I was talking about as a way to essentially give yourself something to
lean on. Because it is very difficult when the market's doing what it has been to deploy fresh
capital. You know you should, but you can't do it. The way you can is if you can do a small
allocation. And by the way, just so that people can kind of understand
and think about that math a little bit,
in that tail hedge example that I provided,
and you probably can't get it off at 77, 78 to 1
like that trader did,
but even at 50 to 1,
you allocate 75 basis points of a portfolio
to a hedge like that that has a huge payoff in the event that you do end up in a bear market.
You can mitigate 50% of the potential decline and really not spend that much premium.
You have some more immediate pain, meaning that if the market drifts down 3%, 4%, 5%. But as long as you have that tail hedge in there,
that's the sleep at night stuff that allows you to take a step back and say,
okay, some of these things have just been beaten up too unfairly.
And I'm going to try to take advantage of this.
Some of the high duration equity I was in that everybody got so panicky about,
now I have an opportunity to buy it at a 35%, 40% discount to where it was trading in January.
opportunity to buy it at a 35, 40% discount to where it was trading in January. This is just
something I would encourage people to, you know, to think about. And if you're in funds like ours
that generate premium, take a little bit of the distribution, deploy it that way. You know,
that's a way that you can put fresh capital to work at lower prices and still sleep at night.
Because otherwise, I think people often get caught deer in the headlight style.
Most of the PMs here, they're much more agnostic to that because they already have a mandate.
And that mandate is, yeah, you don't get to sit on 15% cash.
But individuals often do.
They do get caught out that way because no one's basically
cracking the whip saying, no, you don't get to just take a timeout. It was a movie, I think.
I think it had Bill Murray in it where he was an accidental spy and he doesn't realize he's
being shot at by real bad guys. And he says, time out, time out. I got something in my eye.
The markets don't let you do that.
No, they don't.
Unfortunately not.
Well, this has been a great conversation, Michael Coe.
We always appreciate you coming on and chatting with us.
And big shout out to all the panelists that joined us.
John, CryptoFit, Ms. Roundhill, DividendDGens, all the people hanging out in the audience.
We love all y'all and just appreciate everybody.
You guys make these conversations what they are.
They're awesome, right?
We do this every week.
We've been doing this every week for a long time now.
So big shout out to everybody that has been with us the whole time.
And if you guys are just tuning in for your first time today, we do this every Wednesday at 12 p.m. Eastern.
So bring your questions in the audience.
Feel free to always use the comment section as well.
And we'll be back next Wednesday.
So, Michael Ko, any last thoughts from you?
No, I look forward to that.
Happy April Fool's Day, everybody.
I'm your fool for today.
But I'm going to check out now.
But I'm looking forward to talking with all of you all next week.
And have a good long weekend.
Absolutely.
Yeah, long weekend reminder for everybody.
Tomorrow's going to be our last day trading.
So that's kind of nice.
We haven't had one in a while.
I'm excited for it.
It'll be a nice three-day weekend off the charts.
But everybody, enjoy the rest of the day.
We're going to get hopping off of Spaces here and get running onto the live stream. So hop over to the YouTube stream if you guys want more content of the day. We're going to get hopping off of spaces here and get running onto the live stream.
So hop over to the YouTube stream if you guys want more content for the day.
And if not, we'll see you guys back bright and early on the spaces tomorrow.
So peace out, y'all. Thank you.
