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Welcome to Q2! Is it time to recover? | Market Check
Recorded: April 1, 2025 Duration: 1:21:27Space Recording
Short Summary
The discussion highlights a positive start to the second quarter with significant price increases in Bitcoin and ETH, suggesting potential market growth. There is an expectation of increased liquidity and market expansion, indicating a trend towards a more robust crypto market. The transition from QT to looser financial conditions is expected to benefit altcoins, suggesting a favorable environment for crypto assets. The market is showing signs of entering price discovery, with expectations of the total market cap reaching 8 to 10 trillion, highlighting significant growth potential. Additionally, Coinbase's selective listing strategy on base and the performance of specific assets during adverse conditions indicate trends of strategic market positioning and resilience.
Full Transcription
Good morning, everybody, and welcome to today's episode of Market Check brought to you by
BB. There is no second best daily YouTube live stream to talk about markets. Welcome, guys.
Happy April, but not just April. Happy second quarter of the year. I know it's kind of like
hard to fathom when I thought about it this morning. Like, holy crap.
It is already April.
We're three months into the year.
We're going to have, nevertheless, a great show for you all.
We're going to break down our thoughts on Q2, kind of some things that we're expecting,
both on a lower timeframe and high timeframe.
Obviously, we're seeing a little bit of a move higher here this morning.
We will discuss how sustainable we think that is.
Yeah, and I think it's going to be a great show today, right?
It's always kind of a great show
when the coins are literally pumping into the show.
But I'm Tommy.
You guys also know me as Snorlax.
I'm joined by Moisturized Jackets today.
And of course, Louie Tuesday.
We will soon be joined by Max as well,
I think later on the show. So yeah, we've got a great panel for you all today. Before we can get
started, there are no excuses today. We have a very green market. Whether you're in meme coins,
whether you're in Bitcoin and ETH, whether you're in pretty much anything, markets are pumping
today. No excuses not to hit the like button, guys. I do not want to have to pull up the soybeans chart on a day like today. But as always, guys,
we appreciate your support on this show. We're going to continue to pump out content. And of
course, yeah, let's cook. Like I said, it is the first day of a new quarter, which now that I'm
saying it once again, it's still
just kind of surreal how quickly time can fly in markets. And it's very, I feel like this year is
very indicative of that. With that said, though, I mean, obviously Q1 was very red across the board,
especially for crypto, especially for altcoins. Are we seeing a bit of a, you know, the pendulum
maybe swing back the other way like
i said i mean eth is up five percent today bitcoin is up three percent um could we be about to put
the squeeze on shorts i mean we've been talking for a while about how we are overdue for a counter
trend rally and i think you know continually we have seen a few altcoins, a few assets really just kind of show us that, you know, it might not be necessarily go time immediately.
But at the very least, you know, we're prospecting some bounces, like I said, some strength and things like Sonic, fart coin.
I know how ridiculous it is.
And every time I have to say it, I cringe and laugh to myself at the same time.
But we're talking about like on barometers, right?
And beta can often lead majors.
Specifically, altcoins can lead Bitcoin and ETH from a price action standpoint.
So could we be seeing that right now?
I guess we'll have to see.
We've also been saying a lot of the bounce is going to be reliant on when equities can find their low.
the balance is going to be reliant on when equities can find their low and whether equities
you know kind of just chop sideways for a while whether they are putting in balances of complacency
will continue to be a debate on this show i think but in the meantime i think that the risk is
increasingly shifting to the upside with each passing day that i think really sets the stage
for the second quarter um i'm expecting a lot of volatility this quarter
guys i think there's going to be a ton of opportunity for traders and and probably savvy
investors i mean i don't really quite have uh the same long-term bias as a few other people but
obviously you know it's very path dependent and things can always change but right now
one thing is clear we are pumping it to start the quarter.
Yeah, having Bitcoin and ETH, putting in some pretty strong candles on the first day of the month, first day of the second quarter. Let's talk about it, though. I don't want to ramble for too
long. What are we seeing today, guys? Do we have any expectations here on a lower timeframe?
And of course, I mean, we should probably talk about some Q2 expectations as well.
Is it April Fool's day pump can you imagine oh we just fooled you oh we just fooled you and there is
good morning boys good morning morning we just wanted to start with good vibes
i'm sad i missed it did i bring the bad vibe no no no definitely not i show up and you're like
we wanted to start with good vibes and i'm like well i'm sorry no just in case you're wondering what's going on, because you join and
we are laughing all around.
Well, I'm glad
everybody's having a good time.
The chat's active
and happy today, so
that's good. It's always good to see.
I wonder if it has to do with price.
Market is green.
Yeah.
My shirt is green. I broke out the green shirt today. My shirt is green.
I broke out the green shirt today.
I summoned the candles.
It feels nice to be done with Q1.
I was telling you guys that this morning, but Q2 is here, baby.
Q2 is here. We were so looking forward to Q1, and it just absolutely threw us for a loop, did it not?
It may have done that.
I ain't going to lie.
They had us in the first quarter.
That's a good one.
He said in the first half, though,
so I hope that it's the quarter, man.
I ain't going to lie.
I ain't going to lie I ain't gonna lie.
Believe it or not,
markets do go both directions.
I know it hasn't felt like it,
but yeah,
we're long overdue for this.
So it's great to see
we're finally getting
some nice pushes
off the lows here.
Louis, don't you know
that markets just go down
only forever?
We'll never see a green candle ever again.
Yeah.
That's hot?
Yeah.
At least that's what the timeline tells me these days.
You can't even try to play a bounce without people telling you
that you're being too bullish anymore,
which I think is kind of in itself.
Yeah, I know.
You have to like that sentiment.
Someone was calling me Brokey this morning.
People are literally... Brokey, how are your tokens doing, Brokey?
Dude, I've had to block so many people recently.
Like, I'll just...
Okay, so, like, I posted something last night.
Some guy is, like...
What did he say?
He was, like, oh, like, rumors circulating that like we're gonna get some
basically like a stimmy check in the u.s from like all the savings like from the doge efforts
and stuff like that or tax savings and i just caught like i quoted it and it was like yeah
like this is what we've been talking about how there's something missing here where they're doing all this stuff to save money
you know like slashing the budget cutting waste um and now we're going to be generating you know
all this additional i mean tariff revenue presumably that should flow through to u.s
citizens right and be bullish and like dude i swear I blocked five people. They comment,
you're so unbelievably misinformed. I can't believe like blah, blah, blah, just like freaking out.
And I'm like, I didn't expect to wake up to hate on that post. I felt like that was a pretty just
like neutral idea. People are so angry right now, man. Like you can't do anything without literally just like just getting
berated right people are just vicious right now for no reason well the world is so divided and
it's really like you're either with us or you're against us i i think that sis Sid way looking at the world is dominating it right now.
I was thinking about that.
Yeah, if you try to be somewhere in the middle and speak logic and stuff like that,
you are undoubtedly getting attacked by either...
Well, you're getting attacked by both sides, basically.
If you're not with me, then you're my enemy.
That's really how it feels sometimes, you know?
I don't understand. Sorry, go ahead.
Matthew Tomax? I was just going to say.
I had nothing important to say. Please, you take over.
I feel like there are two very dangerous rhetorics that have become a bit
entrenched in or this quarter. The first one being we're never going to bounce again, right?
You're foolish for being bullish. And you can just see people kind of continuously call for
another leg down after another leg down after another leg down. And then I think the other
rhetoric that seems to be very entrenched,
it's just the absolute certainty that people speak with that it can't be a
recession, right?
It could be, we have no idea.
But it's just like people speaking with so much certainty after one quarter
of the year is just kind of crazy to me.
Just to be fair, I know people are not going to like this.
I still think we go lower first on ease.
But again, I will keep repeating this.
I think we are at the bottoming process here.
And as you said, Tomé, it took four months to absolutely shift the sentiment.
And I think this sentiment will last for a while now. Because it broke people's spirit.
And now they won't be able to accept the other side, basically.
Everything is bound to be a rally to fail from here forward.
This rally will fail like all the others.
Yeah. It goes back to this quote that I really like all the others. Yeah.
It goes back to this quote that I really like from this book.
It's called the most important thing by Howard Marks.
It's a great investing book.
Highly recommend it.
But I tweeted this back in February.
I wanted to pull it up so I don't mess up the quote.
It goes,
investors will overvalue assets when they're
doing well and undervalue assets when they're getting difficult. And yet every decade or so,
people decide cyclicality is over. They think either the good times are all on without end
or the negative trends cannot be stopped. And it's been very clear to me that we're in that
type of part of this period of time where people think that the
negative price action just won't stop because it's been continuous. Right. Um, and yeah,
it's just been, everyone's just been way over offsides that the sentiment, uh, has been
highly skewed to one side, which has been bearish for months now. Um, and, and markets
go up and they go down. Right. So we're going to probably go back up now.
Is that financial advice?
I'll send the bill to your address, Louis.
If I get liquidated.
That's good advice, Louis.
advice that way i'm just talking well guys technically ease has been in a downtrend since
march 2024 that's nearly a year now if we disregard november of last year so
again i think the you know the sentiment is at the extreme.
And as I've been saying, at these levels,
the risk is definitely turning to the upside.
Again, speaking hard time frame, right? I think like locally, again, I think we hit still new low.
But...
Wow, he just keeps calling for lower lows.
We'll never rally again.
We will, we will rally again.
This is the time I had an absolutely amazing thread that I've already mentioned a few times.
I'm not sure if you guys remember it.
And the funny or interesting part about it is that
i wrote this one in 2022 if you know which one i'm referring to uh let me read just the first
four slides or five slides from it because i believe it speaks thousands of words, and I think we are at literally the same time.
So here it goes.
My biggest mistake in the past cycles
was that I was waiting for lower prices
just as I was advised to.
When the bull returns, it comes out of nowhere,
and you tend to get caught up in all the bearishness
that you miss it completely.
You tend to not trust the next up move because all the past ones have failed and the price is
too high now anyway that you'll be waiting for the pullback that doesn't come. Eventually the
feel of FOMO gets to you but it's too late. Looking back it's's all obvious, but in the real time, it's not. We can always say how it
was in the hindsight. Experience and past examples teach us that people buying the breakdown of the
quote-unquote unbreakable 6k support were the real winners. Experience and past examples teach us that people buying the breakdown of the $300 level after the Mt. Gox fiasco, when all the hope was lost and Bitcoin was proclaimed that, were the real winners.
In hindsight, it's always obvious, but in real time, back then, it meant that you bought and you were underwater for several months.
Many, many percent.
It means buying the red candles and sticking to the plan.
And with all the possible worst news you could imagine.
Just as now.
And this is what I wrote in 2022 bottoming process.
And I feel the absolutely same threat applies to the current
East price down here.
That I still, you know, because we are here every single day, I still
obviously think locally we hit new lows. But from a higher time frame
perspective, this is the capitulation I've been talking about
for the past few months.
I think we have arrived.
We have finally arrived. So deep value.
Deep value.
It will be pretty crazy to see if we get some version of that Amazon fractal that we've been
watching for like a year now it feels
like because this is that area it should it should happen out of this is the area yes
this is the hard time frame area this this is where you want to be bidding for years to come
and obviously i know i know guys some of you were bidding like myself you know I would also
want to add I was bidding
myself for this bigger rally
that I'm anticipating in the past
two years and I've many
times resold and then
re-bought again
but I still you know will
keep my eyes on the forest with
this outcome the bigger play
yeah I would have to agree and it's and like people get so angry it's like
how how could you remain bullish like how could how could you not you know sell and look to buy
lower well i've been in crypto almost every day for eight, nine years now,
you know, and in my experience, like holding through these drawdowns, although sure,
there's some opportunity cost and, you know, you should always take profits along the way,
keep dry powder on the side when you do get these larger pullbacks. But in my experience,
um, when the, like you said, when the bull comes back, it comes back out of nowhere.
It happens super fast.
Altcoins can literally...
When the bull begins his run.
Yeah.
Altcoins can literally erase weeks and months worth of downtrend in literally a couple of days.
I'm not even kidding. In my experience,
for the average person to try to trade or time the market, getting out, getting back in,
when you flip sentiment, it's very difficult for you to flip back. If you're flipping bearish
and you're selling everything, you're angry, it, fuck it. It's not going to happen from here.
We must go lower now because it hasn't happened yet.
And then when that market reverses, man, in crypto specifically, like it happens, it happens quick.
It doesn't really give much shot at entries back inside.
And even if it does, you're not going to trust the rally because you've already flipped sentiment in your head and people miss it.
Right. And then eventually when prices continue to go up and up and up, you end up having to FOMO back in.
And then you get your pullback and then you're chopping yourself up and in an overall bullish environment.
environment. So again, in my experience, holding through these drawdowns, adding to your conviction
bags, and just kind of riding the down wave is not a bad strategy. Doing nothing is not a bad
strategy, in my opinion. And that's kind of how I've always navigated these markets, and I've
always come out the other side okay. So if you're doing this this every day and you do this for a living and
you can time it, go for it. There's a lot of people that did it. Tommy did it. Jackis did it.
They did extremely well. But for your average investor that works a full-time job and can't
watch these markets every day, it's going to be very difficult for you to flip back and forth and
get back in at the right time. Holding and doing nothing and difficult for you to flip back and forth and get back in at the right time.
So holding and doing nothing and waiting for markets to flip back the other way and adding to stuff when you get these big pullbacks is a,
is a, is a, is a great strategy as well.
But people get angry when you do that until it's obvious in hindsight,
you know?
So yeah. obvious in hindsight, you know, so.
Yeah.
Not a lot of fans, guys.
Well, no, I was just waiting. I was like, I can jump in, but I can't
tell if you guys are looking because I'm looking at
I can't see Tommy and Jack. This
is the hot tub guy.
So I don't want to, you know, I don't want to like, you know,
yap over everybody because I can't tell if you're about to speak.
But yeah, I don't know.
I'm a, I'm pretty bullish in Q1.
I'd love to take a look at some charts today.
I was doing a bunch of charts yesterday.
So maybe somebody else can share theirs today so we can get a diverse mix of uh
of visuals yeah meat stick is it you yeah wait are you saying that it's not enough for the audience
to look at our beautiful faces well two two faces and two logos your face your face is more beautiful than ours jack is that guy peak beauty that was
bullish oh no i don't like that guy man he's so creepy the european person he's so creepy
that's jackas
Yeah. So here's Bitcoin on the daily guys. Um, you know, and we were, we've been talking about
this downtrend, right? Talked about it a lot last week. Cause we were coming up into it last week,
right? We were testing this downtrend. Uh, this downtrend has had us capped since we made, you know, the inauguration sweep of the highs, right? It's been capping price
for, you know, two, two months, right. Two, two months, two and a half months. Um, and we were
here last week, right. You know, hopeful for a breakout, but we also recognize we were at
resistance. And when it comes to bottoms and stuff like that,
like, you know, if this wasn't going to be a V shape recovery, you know, these bottoms, you know,
you, you see a lot of up, a lot of down, a lot of up, a lot of down. Right. Um, if I had to compare
this, you know, it kind of feel like we're here where you had a prominent downtrend, you had a
nice rally off the lows, but you were stuffed,
right? You were stuffed, but you gathered strength. You went for the breakout and you
continued to climb to the upside. And so finally we ran out of supply sellers ran out of tokens.
I didn't trust this rally. Uh, and then you really start to, you know, you start to fly.
So if I had to compare where we are now here to anything else,
you know, locally on this chart, it's probably, you know, here, right. We had our initial rally
off the lows. We got stuffed at our downtrend resistance. We pulled back. We're creating a
higher low on the daily. Uh, and you know, I think we have a great shot at once again,
going for this downtrend and
this downtrend is going to break right the more times we test it the more likely it's going to
break right like if you want to invert this like what like bears were looking at this chart
they'd be looking for you know like oh you know Oh, you know, I'm short, right?
I'm short downtrend. Right. So, I mean, this looks really promising, right? This looks really
good. We're due for this. Um, and if you want to get a little more granular here on a lower
timeframe, this is kind of how I'm looking at it. Always invert the chart to check your bias.
always invert the chart to check your bias yeah powerful too um you know pretty much
and i talked i told the discord this yesterday very simply back above 84k which is reclaiming
you know this level right these local lows um and we establish price above 84 K we have a great shot at going for
this downtrend once again.
Um, and after multiple tests last week and failing, we got the bigger sell-off, right?
We're gathering strength.
I think we have a great shot at going for it.
And this downtrend finally breaking.
And then we start to climb back to range lows, right?
Where we want to see reclaim.
So this, this local price action looks really promising. Um, it looks really promising here guys. So, um, things look good. And, uh, I think this is just the start, right?
You know, everyone's excited and happy right now, but I think this is a start to probably a couple
weeks, uh, bullish price action on Bitcoin and ETH and alt across the board.
It looks good.
I not going to rule out that we can't see lower pricing at some point,
you know,
maybe in April,
maybe it's later this quarter.
I'm not quite sure,
but I think at
least locally speaking things look good to continue moving higher here over the next few days
don't we have news coming for like don't we find out about eat staking etf tomorrow
and it's liberation day as trump is calling it eat eat staking on the etf and you still don't know what he's going to liberate us
from no we're all waiting even him he's going to be liberating bears from their net worth
oh i like that
i'm just going to continue to say like it makes sense to play a counter trend rally here.
And if you'd like,
if you're still just trying to hammer the ask,
with things basically in a downtrend for four months,
I think you're focused on the wrong direction,
at least in the near term.
Obviously I have my thoughts about how the rest of the year can
potentially look,
but at least in like April or Q1 or Q1, what am I saying? Q2, uh, the rest of the year can potentially look but at least in like april or q1 or q1 what
am i saying q2 uh the beginning of it it makes sense that we see some big pumps on assets that
have objectively gotten completely crushed in q1
you realize you realize how fast the time is going by when you are mistelling the quarters.
I can't believe it's already the second quarter of the year.
I know.
It's kind of surreal, to be honest.
The last month in particular has really flown by.
The days are long, but the higher time frame is short just like uh just like having a baby sometimes the days feel so long but like you look back and
it's like your kid is like he's already he's growing's growing. It's crazy. It's time.
Yeah, it's weird.
Dude, my kid is huge now.
It's insane.
Me too, man. I bet you guys have like different benchmarks for time now that you have kids.
Am I right to say that?
Yeah.
Yeah, I'd say so.
Yeah.
It's like every month, especially he's not even, my son's not a year old yet. So it's like every month is like a so. It's like every month. My son's not a year old yet,
so it's like every month is like a milestone.
It's crazy.
Yeah, man.
It's like my kid's talking a little bit now.
It's crazy.
He's like a little person.
Let's hope that ETH is about 10k
when they grow up, guys.
That's what I was going to say.
I was like, I can't believe that eth is still
down so mad when they grow up i think i just cracked tommy eth is such a piece of man it's
crazy yes it is but i i again when we're talking about things being so beaten down, ETH is way more beaten down than Bitcoin. So if you're getting a bounce from here, in theory, at least initially, ETH should outperform Bitcoin. be a very difficult task this cycle as we joke about all the time now but you know at the very
least off the lows here the asset that's more beaten down requires a larger percentage gain
to return back to previous levels than something like btc so uh for those reasons i've liked all
btc for the for the last few weeks really it's kind of taken maybe a little bit longer than i
thought it would but i think the end result is going to be the same.
Have you seen the monthly candle on EaseBTC?
I'm afraid to look at it. I basically don't even chart EaseBTC anymore.
I love it how literally everyone who tried to call the bottom on the chart just got it wrong like
literally everyone even the ones that were bearish got it wrong yeah yeah i'm really not like that
bearish on ebtc from this level uh but i don't think outperform like high time frame out performance
is necessarily imminent it's probably going to range for
you have to imagine like
six to eight months at least before you
actually get an uptrend on it.
Just long enough for me to win my bet with Max.
That's all I need.
We got a lot of time left, Tommy.
We do. Six months is a long
time in markets.
Tommy is single-handedly holding a multi-billion asset
just to win a lunch against Max.
Confirmed.
You wouldn't get it.
If you knew what the steaks tasted like.
It's about sending a message.
I love when Louis is talking to a muted mic.
Oh, my god.
I'm like, these guys are just talking over me right now.
But he's just ignoring you.
You're like, why are they so rude?
They won't listen to me.
In such cases, it's all right.
I talk too much anyways.
But we bounce back from monthly candles such as this.
Look at those three bearish monthly candles.
And then boom.
So again here.
Put a bottom in.
Again here.
So we'll see.
But it's been very difficult to call bottom on this chart
but it's due for a bounce man just like eth is and all coins um where it comes from who knows
you know i'm i'm still in the camp that it comes from this general area you know whether it's now
or we have to come a little lower um but i'm in the camp that it's in this general area
I'm in the camp that it's in this general area whenever that comes.
I still think the ESBTC outperformance begins above 4K.
I still think that is the case.
I'm not sure if it's going to be a V-shape
or if the ESUSD price likes the bottom really soon,
and then that's sort of like a rounded bottom on ESBTC,
but then really begins to go up the moment we break 4K.
I think that that's probably the likeliest.
If you zoom out again, it's like if we look at the left side of the chart, we do not really have any support there.
It's more like just liquidation levels, but all used.
So I'm not sure if it's, again, I would tend to think that the best case is, you know,
absorption here, going sideways and stop the bleeding. Not sure if we get a V-shape from here.
That's the most, like, orderly sell-off I've ever seen over a multi-year period i feel like i can't i know have a chart that is very similar to that
yeah it's pretty crazy but i mean i can't help but i mean like jackass i totally agree
right that we probably need time to like range and stuff down here but at least initially right
like off like a move that's so like parabola to the downside
like I can't imagine
not seeing at least one
big move after
like a multi
year kind of curve parabola like this
I will help you with that
go on Tezos BTC chart
we're not comparing this to Tezos
literally back then Tezos.
Literally, back then,
Tezos was the East killer at that time.
They sponsored
Manchester United, didn't they?
They sponsor Manchester United till this day,
by the way.
This just shows you how much... I really don't think people still
grasp, even though
we have been... I feel like we're maybe
just so confined
within our space that we don't realize how ridiculous some of these coins valuations still
are i think like uh for a while luna was still spot they might still be sponsoring the nationals
tezos is sponsoring um manchester united somebody is sponsoring juventus right now. I want to say it's just like kind of crazy how much money is still in crypto relative to kind of like people's view on normal finances.
And there was like a tweet I saw in particular that made me think about this yesterday.
It was, if you guys know who anteater is uh which you know shout
out to him he crushed q1 from a pnl standpoint he was showing that on vibet he made like two billion
or two billion what am i saying he made uh he made two million uh in in q1 which is obviously you
know one hell of a return and then the tweet right above it is like some, some normal person, like euphoric that they had $8,000 combined in their checking and savings
account. So it's like, we are almost like so insulated in our, in our own world that we don't
realize just how much money is still sloshing around in our asset class. Yeah. It's the future.
yeah it's the future the people becoming so desensitized to money uh is a very like
it's a very crypto specific thing right yeah it's like that same effect that people who like you
know when credit card companies were doing all that like predatory marketing at universities and
they would like set up booths on college campuses and
be like oh like hello struggling college student would you like a ten thousand dollar credit card
and like no interest for a year and then they all do it and they're all in like crippling debt
because they're kids they can't pay back they don't know how it works and it like destroys like
the first you know part of their their lives they become it's this phenomenon
where like you're swiping a credit card and like you don't feel like it's real money with crypto
it is most certainly like that as well where a lot of these guys i mean it's kind of a meme but
it's like it's too like it's 20 million enough to retire oh my god only a crypto thing, man. It's only a crypto thing. It is.
And I feel like you only see that end, that rhetoric about X amount of money isn't a lot
of money or money is no longer viewed as that important.
Status and power are way more important.
You only see that end at a bear market low, truthfully, because people lose all their
bull market gains
and they stop feeling invincible and then they go oh wait that was super real money and that was a
lot of money oh indeed but it is funny and guess what people are doing that right now hmm yeah
Yeah.
At the generational low.
Never below 1900 again.
Ha ha.
But for real, if Louie's little squiggle plays out there,
it's going to start looking real nice.
Like it can go from looking really, really bad to really bullish
in like one weekly candle.
Like one meat stick back into that little trend line right there
above the range low you're gonna see a lot of like high time frame po3 charts start popping up on x
really what level do you guys think people are gonna start calling for reclaims i want to sell
into that i mean i feel like the level to de-risk, I feel like ETH could rally to 3K, truthfully.
I think it can, too.
Wait, from here?
I mean, not in like one go, but I think this quarter, for sure.
Yeah.
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
For sure.
Yeah.
I'm not saying like tomorrow.
If you get back inside this range, and you establish yourself back inside the range,
mid-range is your your obvious level right you know like and this was a deviation we're back inside and you go yeah um but yeah i'm still pretty convinced you know looking at the weekly chart
you know this is this is likely going to be your false breakdown your deviation
and you know what this kind of reminds me of is xrp me of XRP. Let me pull this up.
Here we go again.
A lot of people trying to short this thing right now, I'll tell you.
I've seen some pretty crazy bearish charts on it.
I'm not going to give my opinion on it because it doesn't really matter.
I kind of agree with what you guys were saying yesterday.
So if you guys want to hear it, go watch yesterday's episode.
But it's starting to feel a little crowded.
I'm not going to lie.
That negative, you know, oh, like it has to collapse.
Like, you know, I don't know.
There is a greater possibility, in my opinion, that XRP flips ETH this quarter
than that it breaks down from this level before higher prices.
But is that a bullish XRP or bearish ETH thing, Tommy?
Because it could go either way.
Kind of both.
I'll let you determine how you want to interpret that.
But no, I actually do think that XRP can flip ETH, as ridiculous as it sounds.
I don't think that sounds ridiculous at all.
I'd actually be at this point a little surprised if it didn't happen.
I actually completely agree with you.
I don't see why it wouldn't.
And by the way, no one wants to talk about this, but XRP flipped Bitcoin at one point.
That was a long time ago.
I'm not going to say it'll do it again.
I don't think it will ever, but it did.
Right.
Flipping things happen all the time.
Pork flipped Pepe in 2023.
Right.
Do you know what happened when that like, do you know what kind of transpired once XRP
started flipping Bitcoin?
Do you know what kind of played out there?
I assume it was salt all over but i don't know it was uh coin market cap literally pulled all the data from the south
korean market because xrp was super you know highly traded in south korea so once xrp started
flipping bitcoin and coin market cap was literally like like the only crypto, one of the only crypto trackers at the time in 2018.
CoinMarketCap literally pulled the data from South Korea off of the website.
And it kind of took away XRP's flipping of Bitcoin.
And that's literally what topped XRP.
So wonder what made them do that, right?
Study up it.
Very interesting.
And where there's smoke, there's fire.
But back to what I was talking about.
I think ETH is here, right?
Multi-year price pinch, right? Multi-year price pinch,
rising demand, falling supply, coming into the apex. And you call this a false move where when
XRP was here, this looked like it was going to break down, right? And this was going to not play out, but ultimately you lost the level,
but reclaim back inside and then you get the expansion the other way.
And that's kind of what the ETH weekly chart reminds me of right now.
I feel like we're in this area.
So we'll see, but this is kind of what it reminds me of,
like going back to the weekly chart, and we can look at it.
Multi-year price pinch, right?
Multi-year price pinch just goes back to 2021.
We're in 2025.
So this is now four years of this kind of formation going on.
This ETH looks like it's going to roll, right?
But I'm in the camp.
This is likely a false breakdown.
You get back inside, you reclaim this level,
and you start to see the expansion the other way.
And this was ultimately just one big trap.
That would be epic.
Yeah.
That would be epic.
I mean, dude, it's going gonna look really good if that happens that's the thing like it's gonna start looking really really good but i don't know we'll see i mean i really think 3k is
on the menu this quarter um like earlier this quarter and i I think a lot of your altcoins are going to rip back really hard.
Like you're going to see some really solid projects,
like not the cancerous ones, okay?
Not the ones that needed to get taken out.
The real solid projects.
They'll rip like three, four, 500%,
and they'll still be down from like their all-time highs.
But man, they'll start looking really good, you know?
Yeah.
We've talked before.
I mean, like there are going to be some new alts as well
that are outperforming at the least some fresh charts.
It's funny, like like one coin just kind
of continues to be this risk on barometer for the market and i again i think it's so ridiculous i
hate having but it's like every time fart coin is just randomly up 15 to 20 on the day majors are
usually not far behind it has been incredible signal honestly
yeah you know what else hasn't been terrible signal either it's been
really down bad but whenever trump is up a little bit and the rest of the market's red
i've noticed the next day is always like a mean reversion day for majors
i don't have that much price history on it, but the other day I noticed that Trump was like up 1%.
I think it was yesterday.
Trump was like up a little bit at one point in the day and the rest of the
market was just kind of getting clobbered.
I don't know.
We'll see.
I'm like really yearning for Trump to do something and to be some signal.
And like,
we'll see if it happens.
Right. I just can't accept that
like this thing is going to be down only forever man I that's difficult for me to to wrap my head
around that that would be the the case guys one thing I wanted to touch upon I'm not sure if you have seen it ACT maybe yeah well I mean I'm not gonna say anything
negative about Binance but like it doesn't exactly seem like uh is it crime Binance FUD
might return the menu later this year
later this year.
Whoa.
What the hell?
I saw someone tweet this
morning where it was like, there's like multiple
charts on Binance that look like this.
Looks like Luna.
With the same massive drop.
It was like four or five. It was like Banana,
I think, was another one.
It's like a rug pull today.
Mark saved from Binance rug pulls.
No, maybe not this one.
It was a different one, but yeah, there was like four or five tokens that did this this morning.
So five tokens.
Well, they were all like Binance, like Binance listings or something.
Yeah.
So maybe they're pulling to pump other stuff.
Who knows?
And then Binance
put out the tweet yesterday like
don't believe everything you see on Twitter
tomorrow.
What about everything that we see on the charts?
Don't believe what you see
on the chart. It's misleading. Don't believe it's not 2k. Don't believe what you see on the chart. It's misleading.
Don't believe it's not 2k.
I'm pretty sure what
probably happened was
a Wintermute wallet got hacked or something.
Because these were all coins that they were
market making.
So the Wintermute FUD is real this time.
Yeah.
For the first time ever.
It's funny because they just spent like a million dollars to redesign their logo and made it the exact same yeah that's crazy dude i love all the winter mute like
conspiracies they're like exchange tier one exchanges are sending assets to like winter
mute wallets to dump on you like dude you have no idea what you're talking about you've not one clue how market making works and they're certainly not doing that
i think winter mute is just kind of like a product of the game i can't hate them they're just like
so uh what's that that quote in the big short he's like so uh transparent in his own self
interest i almost respect it or something.
Exactly.
That's how I view Win or Mute.
I know exactly what you're talking about.
Yeah.
Well, it's always nice to hate on someone, right?
Use them as your escape goat for your own mistakes.
So let's do it on Binance and Win or Mute.
So let's do it on Binance and Wintermute.
Like, it's not my fault I lost 90% in a meme coin.
It's Binance fault and Wintermute fault.
Same people who thought or who were calling for Gary Gensler
to resign like six months ago.
Same crowd.
You want your cake, eat it too. Or what? Wait, what's the saying? You can't have your cake and eat it too. That's basically meme coin
trencher sentiment.
i think this is all coin market cap what no louis you must be bearish how could you still be bullish
after all of this in q1 no you better take that back louis it's time to be bearish
yeah um and this came up yesterday um and it and it's like, people are saying, yeah, we had our
bull run already, right? We had our crypto, you know, we had our alt season, like the bull run
happened. Didn't, didn't you see, you know, didn't you see Pepe go to 12 billion? You know,
didn't you see goat go to like 1 billion? And my argument to that is great. A handful of tokens went to a couple billion,
right here and there. Right. But, you know, all coin market cap, this is the chart,
everything in crypto, you know, not including Bitcoin and ETH. So pretty much all the other
altcoins, right. Um, all coins market cap as a whole is sitting at levels we've seen in 2021, 2022.
So the market cap of altcoins as a whole has not expanded from 2021 yet.
So my argument is if you think we had alt season and you think the cycle's over,
and you think the cycle's over, then inherently you're saying that you believe that no more
liquidity than we saw in 2021 is going to come into the crypto market.
Right.
And if you believe that, fine.
Yeah, sure.
But for me, like what we're seeing being lined up, you know, with the legacy markets, with
all the altcoin ETFs, with all the positive regulation,
the friendly regulation for the crypto market to thrive. If anything, it's going to be the exact
opposite. We're going to see more liquidity that's ever been able to enter crypto begin to enter
crypto. And we haven't even made new highs yet. So if you think we had our alt season, right, then you believe that we're not
going to see any more money than we saw coming to the market in 2021, four years later. Right?
So if you believe that, just understand what you're saying. What you're saying is you don't
think any, we're not going to see more money coming to crypto than we saw last cycle with the entire
kind of ecosystem getting gearing up for the for legacy markets to come in and start to put to sit
at the table um you know what i think is funny louie i'm sorry to cut you up but you know what
i think is funny that i keep seeing is like people associate a correction with a recession kicking in.
They go, oh, price is down, recession is kicking in.
And it's like, that's actually not how it works.
It's possible we're just in a technical correction,
and we're actually not about to enter a multi-year recession.
But every time we pull back, they're like, oh, finally, the yield curve is uninverting.
And like, ooh, initial claims is up from 220 to 225K,
which is literally nothing.
You know, they're just like,
they're just dying for like a multi-year recession.
It's just, it's crazy.
And I'm just seeing so many recession calls right now
just because like we're in a really nasty
technical correction for equities.
And I guess crypto.
Yeah, I mean, this looks like a market that's in a high timeframe uptrend
that's getting ready to head into price discovery
and head into expansion of the asset class.
This is just beautiful uptrend
off the lows from 2021, came into a bear market, came off the lows, put our first leg in, you know,
consolidated, boom, came, you know, put another leg in, retested the 2021 all-time high, you know,
rejected on the first attempt, not so crazy, right? Nothing out of the ordinary. But coming
back into support, regathering strength, not breaking down. This looks to me like this is
getting ready to head into price discovery. And this is a real crypto bull market, right?
All coin market cap and expansion, more liquidity than we've seen in the previous
four years, getting outsized by new liquidity entering the market, which is likely going to be
legacy and a whole other slew of investors that have way more money than anyone else in the world.
And now they're just getting their opportunity to enter this market. So this to me is a real
bull market, right? Trading up in here,
whether we come all the way here or not,
I don't know, right?
But anywhere in price discovery above 2021,
all time high,
that's your real crypto bull market.
Yeah.
I mean, there's a lot of arguments to be made
that like were actually much earlier in the cycle
as opposed to like later in the cycle um as opposed to like
later in the cycle and that was something that i was hoping tommy was super wrong about was that
we were like max pain is that you want to get rich quick and you're stuck here for years and i'm
definitely bummed out that ended up being the case because i wanted to get rich quickly, but it does make a lot of sense, right?
It does make a lot of sense that, I mean, for one, I don't really agree that we're not going
to get like a true alt season, meaning like Bitcoin and price discovery with others dominance
moving up. Maybe we get an ETH BTC rally for like a quarter, even if it's just like a dead cat bounce.
I'm sure at some point we'll get a squeeze. I don't know what it will look like, but either way, Bitcoin dominance down,
right? However that may look, however long it may last. I think at some point we will get a nice
alt season, right? Like a conventionally defined alt season. So I think the assumption is like, look, there's we're still in QT right now.
A cycle doesn't end as you transition out of QT, a cycle begins when you transition out of QT.
Like we're really probably heading into like a prolonged cycle where every bit of price action
we've seen since 2023, like the bottom, right, has come during QT, has come during tight financial
conditions. We're heading into looser conditions. It would make sense that maybe we're halfway
through the cycle. We've had a Bitcoin dominated rally. We're about to head into easier, softer
monetary policy that will be more beneficial for altcoins and small caps like
the Russell. And we might actually be on like hole eight or nine in golf terms, like halfway done
with our cycle rather than like hole 17, 18 and like this cycle suck, no alt season.
Typically cycles don't end when we're heading into softer, easier monetary
conditions, unless it's like emergency cuts because we're heading into a recession, which
we're not getting right. At least not right now. We don't have the data to support that. So
I don't know. I mean, it would make sense. Like I like that you were saying, Louis, like we haven't
really had like a cycle yet, like a true cycle. We haven't even really seen price discovery across the board yet.
Nothing like we've seen in the past.
Not even close.
Do you remember, unfortunately, what I was saying about that this cycle will be about
macro bull one with semi bears in between?
Yeah, I hate that you were right about that about that too it's terrible look at this chart you and tommy really rooting things for me but that i i mean there is
that old saying right like come on jackie's stop telling people the truth man they just don't want
to hear it like why would you bother with it?
All you need to tell people, Jack, is you're going to get rich.
Max long everything.
Straight to the moon.
That's what they want to hear.
Yeah, and then blame you.
Yeah.
I mean, this has been a difficult cycle, though.
I mean, these corrections have been very prolonged and difficult to navigate.
Zoom in on the current cycle from the lows on this chart.
Well, since the low, you can see three semi-bear markets, but you can clearly see this chart is uptrending.
And I think we are heading towards the end
of our third semi-bear market.
And that's something that's like,
if you were to measure the average time of a pullback
this cycle versus previous ones,
these corrections have been so much longer
than what a normal correction has been
in previous bull markets. That's the difficult part of it. We're actually seeing,
yes, there's price-based capitulation, but the time-based capitulation. Because people can deal
with the whipsaw in crypto, the up, the down, the volatility. Most people are okay with that.
It's how long they've had to wait which
i think is driving people to this like really dark place mentally um look how long those pullbacks
are man yeah almost tedious tedious i think you wanna i think you wanna take the left one from the high? Hmm? Yeah.
This one?
The one in 2023, you want to take it from the high, the timing, just to be precise.
Yeah.
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Go for it.
No, just do it on the middle one, too.
And then, yeah, I think all are something in between, like, 100, maybe for the breakout.
Yeah, it's kind of hard to, like, tell when exactly, you know, we left it. Yeah.
Yeah, 180 days, 200 days, you know, on average.
180 days, 200 days, you know, on average.
But I mean, as we start to climb and this thing, this chart continues to, you know, enter parabola, right?
And start go more vertical.
I believe that these should start to become shorter, right?
Until you finally get your blow off.
But I mean, I don't know if that's gonna but eric trump was just on uh fox
business and was quoted saying bitcoin is one of the greatest stores of value in a hedge against
real estate wow well last time he said that it was not a good thing for i i levered long on ETH at 2700 because Eric Trump told me it was a goodbye.
I lost everything.
Well, I'm just glad he didn't say, have you ever said thank you?
Did you say thank you one time?
So funny.
Well, I can imagine when this market bumps people will be like thank you thank you
thank you here's the thing is like he's gonna end up being right like ether 2700 over the next year
is probably not a bad buy i would hope i mean if it is then we're cooked but he might have been he
might have been a month and a half too early you know well put it this way if he were to say if he were to say that and then
eve actually absolutely ripped from there you know that looks super sketchy you know but he said that
he decided to drop another six seven hundred bucks and then if it goes after that you know he's not
really on the hook for for anything yeah that's true. You think about it that way.
But I mean, yeah, this is total crypto market cap. This looks to me, high timeframe,
cancel out a lot of the noise. It looks like we're pretty much trying to flip our 2021 highs into support. Right?
Like, are you longing this chart?
Are you longing this chart or are you shorting this?
Right?
I guess you could say,
oh, deviation,
you know, back inside,
but not really.
Right?
Not really.
You know, if we hold here
and start to push,
this is just a break
of the 2021 all-time high
for the market cap.
We pulled back and then we start the real client and start to go more vertical.
Louis, I got a question for you.
Not that this matters too much because I think price targets are more just for fun.
But do you have any like fib levels that you're expecting or looking out for on total?
Like what are
your realistic expectations we'll just give like a window what do you think is possible this year
i think eight eight to ten tr oh this year yeah okay let's just say with next fiscal year from
now through yeah you know eight to ten trillion okay so we're sitting at three, like almost three right now.
So eight to 10, you know, somewhere in here.
I think this is your, your, your, your sell it all zone, at least for short for, for a
little bit.
That'd be sweet.
It'd be fun.
You know, what's, what's the total market cap for gold right now? That'd be sweet. It'd be fun.
What's the total market cap for gold right now?
21 trillion.
Did it go up?
Yeah, gold's been going up.
Oh, yeah.
I forgot how crazy gold's been going.
Oh, my goodness. It was at like 6, 7 trillion a couple years ago.
In my head, I thought it was like 10 trillion.
I like forgot how hard gold's been ripping.
Peter Schiff was right.
So now Bitcoin needs to go to 1.1 million to reach parity with gold.
We got a lot more work to do.
Yeah.
So, you know, saying the asset class as a whole can't get the, you know,
seven to 12 trillion when gold's sitting at $20-something
trillion. It's not super outlandish for an asset class as a whole, not one asset. This
is the entire crypto asset class.
Caspa to $12 trillion. I'll tell you the only thing, there are two bearish things about Caspa. One,
Mara got involved in the mining and they used it clearly to subsidize their business to some degree
because it was more profitable than Bitcoin mining. And they just started just farming it,
just absolutely farming it. And the second is when the CASPA community started saying Bitcoin was a test net for CASPA.
Those are the two really best.
The most obvious thing I can think of for an altcoin is rhetoric.
Yeah, that was like, ooh, I don't know, guys.
I mean, I'm all for like a new L1 proof of work where you can shit coin on and like, it's great tech.
But to say that, o oof i don't know i would only wish
says oh this is the next pepe it's like no it's not it's just a meme coin it might do well it's
not the next pepe know your place you know i would only wish that the reverse would happen for ease
when people started delete dot ease from their nicknames and it would start
to go up but instead it continued
in that same direction.
It's about
to happen to all the dot souls.
Dot soul. Imagine
being a soul maxi.
New bearish Tommy propaganda
just dropped. Let's go. Yeah, I am am now gonna fud soul like i fudded
eth oh i'm just so happy you're off the eth fud train man it's it's well hang on hang on let me
have it just let me have it it's fine it's like that anakin meme uh where he's talking with Padme.
Yeah.
It's like, which means you're done fighting ETH, right?
Right?
I don't like sand.
I'll be nicer to eat.
Okay.
That's my compromise for now. I'll'll take it I'll take what I can get
I do have some bags
on ETH though as a few people
in the comments have pointed out
dude that thing
okay I have this theory with
basefart coin okay so. So I was buying it like in
the very beginning of the year. It's been the only thing in my portfolio that's been up. It's
been such a blessing, right? There's this one wallet and it's not the normal Coinbase insider
wallet or whatever. Okay. But there's been this one wallet that has shoved 750 000 into this chart and i don't
know who it is it was nobody involved in it knows who it is but i found some other wallets of theirs
and they own a bunch of random base tickers right just like a ton of random base shit coins i have this theory that it's like a coinbase person shoving
this thing for a listing pump because they're getting i mean talk about the coinbase nepotism
with this like with base stuff right now they are listing things on base that if they were on
eth or soul they wouldn't touch right and i'm not saying that's a bad thing it's just like that's what they're doing right now right uh so it's like a business model it's whoever is shoving this thing
right it certainly feels like it's intentional right so i don't know i have this they bought
over three percent of the supply shoving it. The thing's been
up only. Everything
has been down. It feels
like they're buying this thing for a listing pump
personally. I don't
know. Just a thought.
totally agree with you, Max.
This,
it was very clearly
someone was T-wopping in down here with size,
you know? And I even like, I even $1,000. Yeah. And I was like, I even said a couple of times,
I was like this chart, like the way it's coming off the lows, it looks like somebody knows
something, you know, it looks like somebody knows something or is preparing for something.
Um, cause you like this thing just wouldn't break down every time.
Like, you know, you started to get a pullback.
This thing would just continue to get T wops.
And so finally we're starting to break away here.
Um, but I, I would agree, you know, this looks like somebody knows something, uh, and hopefully
you know that it is, but I mean, it doesn't, it doesn't even need it, you know, but it
would be great to have that listing.
Because it's not listed on any exchanges, which is like a beautiful thing, too.
It's just all organic, like on-chain.
Imagine the only exchange it gets listed on is just Coinbase.
That'd be so epic.
That'd be so cool.
None of the like lower tier exchanges, just like on chain Coinbase insiders accumulate
listed.
Oh man, that'd be so fun.
Be so cool to see.
As long as they let it run.
It's just when it's not like something is going on with it.
That's what I mean is like.
No, I agree.
Because I bought it just as like a for fun play and like, you know, a friend of mine
is super involved in it.
Friend of ours, you know, Donnie's super into it.
So I'm like, yeah, I'll ride.
Like, let's go.
But something right there, Louie, is going on.
And it feels like some nepotism, I'll tell you.
No, I agree 100%.
I was saying the same exact thing.
I was saying the same exact thing.
Very strong. I mean, it's like my whole portfolio is down like 80 and then this one part of it's like up 2x you know just like during horrible conditions
it's definitely kept me alive as well it's definitely kept me alive
the fart the base fart has kept me in the game yeah i mean someone doesn't buy 750k this thing
the fart the base fart has kept me in the game
for no reason you know like something's up here you know and like if you see like the replies on
some of their posts and stuff there's like all these like base guys that are like base devs and
like they have mutuals with like coinbase. I'm like, what are you guys
doing here? Somebody's doing
something. Something's going
on. I don't know. Maybe I'm
in my own head about it, but I'm like when something
is not behaving like it normally
would, and there's kind
of these like little breadcrumbs, you know?
It's interesting.
Yep. Wait, today's my one year anniversary of when I bought Andy. I just realized that I bought It's interesting.
Wait, today's my one-year anniversary of when I bought Andy.
I just realized that.
I bought it last year.
Someone said, Max, did you create Andy or were you a part of starting it?
No, absolutely not.
I just found it on Dex Greener one night.
Actually, one year ago from today, which is super funny.
One-year anniversary from when I bought FIFO Fandy.
If you want to take a shot on Andy, this is where you do it.
Not financial advice, but.
I've been buying down here.
So have I.
Me and Max were texting last night.
It's like the 300.
Louis is like, is that you down there?
And I said, they expect one of us in the wreckage, brother.
I was like, I was watching Andy last night.
I was like, is that you down there, Max?
Yeah, yeah.
I mean, super locally, this thing looks really good.
I mean, it's like, how could I expect someone else to bid my bags if I'm not going to bid my bags?
I'll happily bid my bags.
Exactly.
Someone's got to do it.
We've got our initial bounce, the painful grind, the rollover.
This is your second scary drop where everyone gets freaked out
and way more bearish than they were here.
Boom, sweep the low.
No dice, not going lower.
And then you got a nice little local double bottom
on your hands, right?
I think this is a great setup.
Clear and validation.
I was buying this one.
I guess Max was buying this.
So teamwork.
Yeah, if you have a BB membership,
it's not a signals thing,
but it's like I share what I'm doing.
I've been telling everyone
my plans.
Hey, I'm buying here.
This is the level I'm looking at.
That kind of stuff.
So yeah.
Ooh. Oh. kind of stuff so yeah oh there are a lot of shorts coming in on bitcoin here
squeeze are they gonna get squeezed tommy sure would be a shame
all right i love a bullish tommy even if it's only for a short period of time. Nothing better than when Tommy and Jack is both get bullish and then both start flipping at the same time,
and then the charts start looking good.
I'm like, oh, baby.
Someone's about to lose all their money on a short right now.
Yeah, Wolf, I think, looks really good.
Bought some wolf yesterday.
I'm just trying to swing it up to here, you know, and see what happens.
I think it's very easily doable levels, right?
Like, look at last time when we came from off these lows.
Boom.
Right?
Reaccumulated.
Another like, you know? So, you know, with the Pepe strength of the last month or two,
like if you missed Pepe, you got Andy and Wolf sitting at the lows
at major support, like no-brainer, no-brainer in my opinion.
Yeah.
So Tommy, how do you, how do you know that there's shorts coming in?
Like, are you, is funding flipping negative or something?
Like I'm sure, oh, I ramped up, but like, how do you, how do you know it's shorts?
Increasing, speaking with my order flow quants or one of my two order flow quants
lots of net shorts coming in here uh almost like parabolically while net longs are pretty flat
squeeze them and i also think you have finally these correlations for equity markets beginning to
turn positive like an extended rally here for tech makes sense to me
like a few weeks i'm gonna i'm just gonna continue to stick by uh what i've been saying
on x and what i said but in on the Discord, like exit scam April.
Maybe it materializes
to more than that, but
tactically, I think it makes sense to be a bull here.
Yeah, I mean,
I could see why they're trying to pile in shorts here
because you see
what happens when you get back above 85-2.
If you get rejected, you're kind of stuck in this area. when you get back above 85 too right if you get rejected you
know you're kind of stuck in this area right but you get above it you start to see big reactions
right you get above it big reaction you get above it big reaction right so i guess that kind of
makes sense that they're trying to stuff it here maybe we have a little more time in here, but you know, time is running out. I
think for the bears, time is running out. They're on borrowed time. My opinion is Bitcoin
not trading on Coinbase right now. Did they do that thing where their oracle freezes up yeah yeah i was like why is bitcoin
price at the exact same level for about 15 minutes oh yeah this is my favorite No crying in the casino.
Lots of crying in the casino lately.
Well, we'll see what happens.
I like the PA today.
How do stocks look? does like spx look
you looked at it yet well yeah i i've been watching i think tomorrow will end up being
like a buy the news maybe some local volatility but uh i've got you know like 5900 on the S&P, on Qs, probably like 505 to 510. Dow Jones, I'd like to see back into like,
you know, maybe even 44,000. I think all of these things are kind of confluent with my view on
Bitcoin right now that it makes sense for us to trade higher, right? Because I've been pointing
out like structurally, all of these equity indices look
very similar to Bitcoin. Clearly, that's kind of like the main correlation that's driving us at
the moment. And so for that, like, I think for that reason, it makes sense to be bullish on
altcoins to be bullish on Bitcoin. After that, you know, I'm much less certain. We'll see what
happens with the macro. it's very path dependent
as i've continued to say but uh i think you know in the near term those are levels that have a
kind of an obvious target on their back for me yields are nuking oh that's good
that's good very very good there was like that data glitch last night uh right yeah it was the
three month yield like spiked up a crazy amount i i was pretty certain it was a glitch because
there was no news and i follow a bunch of like a bunch of macro boys and no one said anything
and i was like all, they'd be freaking out
about somebody getting blown up if it was real.
But thankfully it was a glitch, it seems like.
Yeah.
TradingView does that a lot.
I still remember if we go to Binance US on BTC,
If we go to Binance US on BTC, there's a magical price point.
Magical wick.
On Binance?
Binance US.
Oh my God.
I'm not going to...
I'm not going to...
I know what you're talking about.
$130K or something.
What was it?
It was like $ 8k, right?
Well, that's the downside,
but I remember there was one to like 150k or something.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Fill them both.
No, no, no.
No, don't fill them both no no no don't fill them both
i think it was the binance yeah the binance uh usdt chart on binance us
and the wig goes to 138k and we are are filling it. Lido, it is amazing.
Louis?
Oh no.
He's out.
He's gone.
Louis Tuesday liquidated himself.
Liquidated himself.
The best way to force yourself out of the market is to just liquidate yourself.
If you can't physically escape the market, just liquidate yourself and that's it.
That's the way to leave the casino.
Would you look at that, Max?
Funding rate.
Oh, I waited.
Why is it red, Tommy?
What does that mean?
Shorts are pouring in, man.
We'll see how it materializes, right?
Because I will say, at least over the last year,
that doesn't necessarily mean that we're guaranteed to squeeze.
But we do have fuel now put in the market.
So I guess we'll just have to see.
I think a lot of it's going to come down to equity market correlations.
Tomorrow's a big day. But I'm going to stick to my guns, man. I think it makes sense that we see
a rally across the board in April. But yeah, if you guys enjoyed what you heard on today's show,
we do have a few things to offer you, starting with what you see on the screen, the BB terminal.
If you are interested
in getting this open interest out of this lower time frame data will we punish the shorts
find out next time on market check but you can keep obviously tracking this and following it
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And even soon we'll have a tool for our on-chain trenchers, our degens,
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So make sure to follow the continued development of the BB Terminal, guys.
It's going to be the best tool that you see for pretty much every store-to-market
participant by the end of this
cycle. Of course, we also were nice enough to package this together with the BB Discord,
which you can come join, like I said, both at discounted rates if you purchase them together.
But through the Discord, you get four to five hours of calls every single day. You get access
to our thoughts on the market in real time and And of course, even our positions. Um, but yeah, if you are also looking to hone your educational
base or even reach trading level mastery, we also have the BB Academy where you can come learn from
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certainly not least, we have BB Wealth Management guys. I made this
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get this pump. I can't wait to exit crypto forever. I mean, I'm thinking about kind of
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But yeah, we hope that you guys enjoyed Market Check today.
Pretty nice start to the quarter.
Already getting some volatility.
We'll see how it continues to materialize.
Like I said, tomorrow could be, I guess, pretty volatile on a lower timeframe. I guess we'll
just have to see, but, uh, I guess probably stay off the like aggressive leverage. Maybe. Um,
I know that even though I say that most people probably won't, if you really want to,
you're going to anyway. So just be safe about it. Right. But we'll be back to break down another another day in markets tomorrow, 11 a.m. to 1115 Eastern Time, Monday through Friday when the New York Stock Exchange is open. You can expect to find us live.
up your day with Wabi and Market Talk hosted through the Because Bitcoin X account. That is
a spaces that we host Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday. Wabi does a great job with those shows,
so make sure to tune in for him as well. But yeah, guys, we hope that you enjoyed the show.
That concludes our first day of the quarter, at least from the standpoint of Market Check.
at least from the standpoint of market check.
We'll be back tomorrow.
But until then, thank you again, as always.
And of course, stay safe.
